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Robert Duval  

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  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    Jun 24, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    "If the standard of skill is simply based who had a recent large gain on some stock or some market, shouldn't we all be admiring and heeding the advice of the Chinese rural investing novices who have the largest returns on planet in the last six months?"

    +1. WSD. And all trumpeted gains ---- and much less trumpeted losses --- included, very, very few beat the S&P 500 total return over any period of time.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be A Deal For Greece, And Why That Is Bearish For U.S. Exporters And Shale Oil [View article]

    One factor impacting the oil market that has been brought to my attention is the impending nuclear deal with Iran -- which would bring substantial supply back onto the market.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking The Incipient Inflation Trade: Signposts, Indicators And Investment Opportunities [View article]

    Regarding this "incipient inflation thesis" -- I'm more cautious now about how fast this will develop, and how long it might take. Certainly the article is intended to encourage some allocation to what are very cheap and out of favour areas.

    I am also very positive on the stocks I have listed, although I currently do not own all of them and have slashed sizing of the reminder.

    On the broader inflation question, I think I'm half right (wage and health care inflation, and a stronger US economy) half wrong / half early (commodity inflation.

    As noted above I have sold my energy exposure and gone short on a different group of US shale and Canadian oil sands stocks. I see crude oil as vunerable in the intermediate term.

    Long term the rise of Indian demand could have a major effect, but this is likely some time off.

    Taking developments as they come.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Iran Nuclear Deal - The Great Oil Price Disruptor [View article]
    Interesting, and one reason I am short the losers at this poker table, US shale and Canadian oil sands.
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    Tony, or anyone,

    If there is no (junior IPO) biotech bubble -- Ive seen that thought (which is my current view) characterized here as nonsense -- why not then buy a selection of recent IPO's?

    More money would be made. Start with AXON.
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    Doc, -- I note that.

    I am further uncomfortable with the references I continually read that although markets are extended, times are comparable now to 1982, 1992 or 2003, on the cusp of hundreds of SPX points imminently about to happen.
    I see many differences witn those time periods.

    Interesting times. It is these unusual influences which I believe are in their waning phases, one reason I am tactically cautious.

    Companies have a history of agressive share buybacks and M&A at poor times.

    We will see, as always.
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2,120 Tuesday: This Time Is Different? [View article]
    "Trading on future potential earnings"

    So true. Check out Air BnB private equity valuation, still rising. 24 billion on projected this year 900 million sales.

    2020 projections are 10 billion sales and 3 billion profits. Pay now for that though.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Fed Hawk Soils Stock Rally Durability [View article]
    Exactly. It sells off, talk it up, runs too hard, talk up rate hikes. Micromanaging.

    The fed will not raise until forced to. Doubtful all year. Don't even listen to fed speeches anymore.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]

    How do your valuation models account for the Trillion -plus in share buybacks projected this year in US markets. (All time record). Much of this with borrowed money?

    Do you believe that is sustainable with higher rates?
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    My "inner trader" says reverse and go long 30 year treasuries -- so am with TINY size. Higher low.

    Short crude at 61.15 too, TINY size.

    LOng Sept bonds 148 / 27
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    Danislaw -- Gee.

    Overbought for sure -- and that is one way to play it -- I'm just going with shorting the weaker players.
    If GILD corrects the whole shabang corrects, confident about that. BIIB was soft today, and of my 6 shorts, 3 ended flat, 3 down good. Of course energy rallied.....
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sky-high PT on Netflix from Oppy [View news story]
    Hope so, Stock 701 in AH
    Jun 23, 2015. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be A Deal For Greece, And Why That Is Bearish For U.S. Exporters And Shale Oil [View article]
    Sleep; Oil was strong. Very whippy range. I'm not short USO just the shale producers. All of my short positions are going to require my patience!
    Jun 23, 2015. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April New Home Sales, Homebuilder Sentiment And Overvalued Homebuilder Stocks [View article]

    Right on. I am a bull on housing, get where you are coming from, especially the distorted data.

    In like mind there are those on SA who are charlatans endlessly pumping the US shale stocks, before, during, after their crash, and during this -- what I see as -- a lull in the storm.

    Not one word of a mea culpa or apology acknowledging their own terrible losses, or worse less experienced investors they have tricked and manipulated into following them.

    We are talking pumping stocks all the way down , like RIG LINE and EXXI, and viciously, personally attacking anyone who dare question them.

    Worse, after sucking in their naive followers, they claim publicly months after it is "disingenuous" that they DIDN'T take "defensive action" while the stocks were at the top. Not only charlatans -- but lying ones.

    Their innocent followers are left hanging out to dry -- 70% losses.

    I've made a nice amount of money fading this kind of charlatans, and I am still doing it. I gain personal pleasure in positioning against them.
    Jun 23, 2015. 05:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment