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Robert Duval

 
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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    On the (BHI) deal -- with the collapse in oil -- anyone see any chance of a renegotiation of this deal?
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    T;

    My inclination is Europe has been smashed so badly; by comparison my home country Canada seems wildly overpriced here in a deflationary environment.

    Energy services too, seem ridiculously overpriced for the environment.
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    I've added a short in CAT this morning at 88.60. Hard to see how CAT earnings expand in this environment.

    I've added to short in financial HCG.TO at 44
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    T;

    Specific names?
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    Tack;

    I know you don't short, but what would be your short list of Euro candidates?
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    Sweet day. They gave me a chance to add to some energy shorts in the morning, bidding them up for some strange reason. Hammering everything now.

    Story has a LONG way to go, IMO

    RIG broken major support at 16; think it breaks 10; core short. OIH breaking 33.50.

    Also short for the last month; a Canadian subprime lender, home capital group. I would be very wary of anything Canadian at the moment
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    Bsf,

    A couple of thoughts. It takes many months for announcements of capital spending cuts to filter through to significant lower production, but all that means is the companies will be reducing drilling for new wells.

    I posted an article from the WSJ a few days again, explaining that many companies are so debt laden they are forced to produce at full volume to service their loans.

    The same applies to countries like Iran or Venezuela, lower prices force more production to pay the bills, not less.

    This story is far from over.

    On the jobs report, I'm hoping for a big number, that crushes TLT, so I can buy more. The only question on long term US rates, is how fast do they go down. I sold some exposure there, I am perfectly willing to bid to buy it back.

    A 1% US 10 year is not out of the realm of possibility ---
    Jan 9, 2015. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    Yes @ 200 / per flight hour.
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    We overflew south central -- I guess -- PA at perhaps 230 pm. Flew immediately east of Arnold Palmer airport, east of Pittsburgh. Nice day good weather, until we got to Toronto anyway.
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    Happened to fly today over all of (north to south) Georgia, south and North Carolina, refueled Roanoke, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York.

    I overfly anyone here? Just curious.
    Jan 8, 2015. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    Flew all day today from South Georgia to home in Ontario. Freezing temps the whole way. Great holiday in south Florida makes me wonder why I live in Canada, it's frigid right now.

    Yet another Fed induced rally? A 5% gdp report and solid jobs figures aren't good enough? What are the Fed's markers?

    Anyway this is exactly why I won't short the indexes.

    I will not cover my energy shorts though and if they bounce I will re - increase. A 332 Dow rally doesn't affect my strategy I the slightest.
    This story has a long way to play out.
    Jan 8, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    Recall....the SPX crashed in fall 2008... Bottom wasn't for another 5 months....
    Jan 7, 2015. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    Cr,

    Don't know it, will look it up, but if a levered etf, not interested due to erosion. I also trade 30 year futures.....
    Jan 7, 2015. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    FG'


    Not to say it can't bounce good, either. But real basing takes time.....
    Jan 7, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #56 [View instapost]
    FG,

    Respectfully, it takes 2 to make a market.

    This is not remotely 2009 in any way, shape or form in any asset, oil included. Not even close.

    It is not, repeat not, contrarian to buy oil, either. The crowd, and every article almost on SA / CNBC is screaming about the "opportunity of a lifetime" in energy.

    That is not 2009, and not how bottoms are made. No defaults. (yet). No fear of defaults. Buy the dip, buy the dip, thats all I see.

    Just because an asset is "down" doesn't make it contrarian to buy it, any more than shorting an asset that is up a lot, is necessarily contrarian.

    IMO buying long treasuries, from a crowd sentiment point of view, is far more "contrarian" than buying energy. Nobody believes TLT can go higher.

    It's contrarian to remain short energy, for me.

    People can do what they wish.
    Jan 7, 2015. 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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