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Robert Duval  

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  • Get Out Of China A Shares (And Anything China): A Classic Bubble Market Facing An Inevitable Crash [View article]
    Alf;

    Chinas' bubble is bursting, and if it spreads through their economy their will be implications.

    A lot of people are scoffing that China will in any way impact the US, which I think is ridiculous being we are a global economy. We will see in the course of time. Don't think we can assume their will be no effect a few days into a complete market meltdown.

    China's stock market is down another 8% tonight already, there is (justified ) panic as the government is trying to halt the bloodbath.

    What I don't get it the appeal of buying stocks like BABA or VIPS in the face of a meltdown with unknown effects. I only wished I'd not covered my shorts in both so soon!
    Jul 7, 2015. 10:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time For Greed [View article]
    No one will kick Greece out. Not a chance, ZERO.

    Think about the dynamics of that. Who does it benefit vs who benefits if they stay?
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]
    Tack;

    Its a market of stocks. Did this little exercise today on just a few of my mainstream short picks. As of now -- just quoting rough figures here -- the S&P is around 50-60 points off its high -- call it 2-3% at most -- but again thats not what counts -- unless we as investors are mainly invested, and exposed, only to the SPY or similiar.


    Lets take a look - - at a brief list of popular widely held stocks to illustrate the point, that getting the S&P "right" isn't enough as a risk management tool -- and we would do better focusing our energies on the stocks and sectors we are invested in, and not assume getting the S&P "right" is sufficient. I've been involved (short) with most of these names at different times.


    FIGURES ARE % off of high -- most within 52 weeks. (again, roughly, as an exercise)


    ENERGY


    (PXD) 43
    (CLR) 53
    (WLL) 65
    (RIG) 82


    SEMICONDUCTORS


    (MU) 50
    (SNDK) 49
    (INTC) 22


    materials


    (JOY) 68
    (CAT) 29
    (FCX) 71
    Jul 7, 2015. 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    TO add to the above: The short gold position is a great offset for my net short stock positions (Which are smaller now after this mornings washout in the oil names in particular, and my reductions there)

    I highlight the NYA as a broader representative index; and note investors aren't losing too much through patience at this juncture -- except perhaps dividends -- at the beginning of July 2014 the (NYA) closed at 11100, today after the big reversal -- which although I'm looking for a big rally on any Greece deal, is still impressive -- closed today at 10829 -- still lower.

    NYA, SPY, and the transports IYT, are all (slightly) below their respective weekly trendlines running from the march 2009 lows, for the first time on this advance. Nasdaq 100 QQQ is flirting with that same line.

    For this reason , todays impressive reversal notwithstanding, market has technical damage and at best, is in a "no mans land state" where its needs to prove itself, at least to me.

    My net short exposure is relatively modest, but I am content with a large cash position at this juncture, until either the Market proves itself, or has a significant correction to wash out the excess built up over recent years.

    Again, Greece is neither a reason to sell, nor a reason to sound an all clear for me, as I continue to focus mainly on the correct sectors, hopefully!

    Regards All.
    Jul 7, 2015. 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    Timmies;

    They are the high quality name -- RD
    Jul 7, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    Should add Readers -- I see the biggest near term move setting up in Gold.

    Not Up -- Down. I'm looking for a test of 1000 -- this year. A big break may be imminent here.
    Jul 7, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    Friends;

    I still believe in the thesis outlined on THis article -- there will be a deal for Greece, Greece is not though the ball we should be watching, and a deal is actually beraish for the euro / bullish the dollar, and bearish, all things being equal; for commodities.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 7, 2015. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    banmate;

    I know its really tempting -- and there was a HUGE reversal in the 2 names I am short -- I think they were quite oversold (I did trim and sell some puts against) -- but I see lower prices for oil between now and the late fall, and Shale debt on the front pages again. I see an Iran deal as close to a sure thing -- would like to see how Oil settles after all this.


    At that point I think one could shop for the higher quality (OIL) names incrementally.

    I don't know the steel names that well, sorry -- But your logic seems sound on MT.
    Jul 7, 2015. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    Extremely busy day, I've made a number of changes which I will note on my instablog -- I posted them but the formatting is all messed up, will try to fix it later.

    Essentially during the mini panic this morning I cut my energy shorts down and sold puts against most of the rest of those positions -- energy is washed out somewhat here and due for a bounce -- and sold puts against some of the tech plays as well. Still looking for a Greece deal and big celebration off that.

    This is an interesting day to illustrate the point I made in the article essentially about stealth corrective activity not reflected in the S&P 500.


    As of now -- just quoting rough figures here -- the S&P is around 50-60 points off its high -- call it 2-3% at most -- but again thats not what counts -- unless we as investors are mainly invested, and exposed, only to the SPY or similiar.

    Lets take a look - - at a brief list of popular widely held stocks to illustrate the point, that getting the S&P "right" isn't enough as a risk management tool -- and we would do better focusing our energies on the stocks and sectors we are invested in, and not assume getting the S&P "right" is sufficient. I've been involved (short) with most of these names at different times.

    FIGURES ARE % off of high -- most within 52 weeks. (again, roughly, as an exercise)

    ENERGY

    (PXD) 43
    (CLR) 53
    (WLL) 65
    (RIG) 82

    SEMICONDUCTORS

    (MU) 50
    (SNDK) 49
    (INTC) 22

    materials

    (JOY) 68
    (CAT) 29
    (FCX) 71

    Now I get I'm picking on some dramatic examples to make the point - But I'm sure all would agree there are a TON of stocks off far more than 10% already -- let alone 2 or 3%
    Jul 7, 2015. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hi-Crush Partners Yields 8.8%, But Is It Due For A Distribution Cut? [View article]
    Hi - Crush = Crushed. Why so much worse than (CRR) which I tried to short, and is barely down? Is the distribution too high?
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    As I wrote --- A disorderly Chinese market may pressure the US --- (ASHS) Chinese A small caps down another 14% -- China seems to be panicking.

    Gold, Oil, Copper, all in absolute free fall.
    Jul 7, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    Locking in some big gains by selling puts against 1/3 of some positions -- details later on my blog.
    Jul 7, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    Thanks Those -- appreciate it --RD
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Priced-In, Stupid! [View article]
    End of the world doesn't happen very often -- RD
    Jul 6, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    TF;

    One of my reasons for overall tactical caution, Share buybacks have been running at a frantic pace, I don't think they can keep it up if Corp bond rates rise -- RD
    Jul 6, 2015. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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