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Robert Duval  

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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #71 [View instapost]
    From my Blog -- post Fed Update:

    Author’s reply » Post Fed Meeting update -- Standing Pat.


    Per my comments in my "Fed Editorial Blog", I believe we are in a developing "currency war"; with US dollar strength as a predominant theme.


    While yesterday was uncomfortable for my energy related shorts, nothing for me has fundamentally changed.


    It is telling the US dollar sell off, especially against the Euro, appears to be unwinding already.


    Yesterday afternoon I added to shorts, with the following:
    Short JOY 40.50
    SHORT MBLY 43.00
    SHORT WLL 40.25 (takeover rumour)
    I am also short oil stock COS.TO from @ 9.20 C$


    All of these went immediately "onside" this morning. Likewise, yesterdays energy stock rally has been largely reversed already.


    I remain with all other positions above, although I have closed longs in my regional bank longs.


    I remain short BABA and TSLA, which has spiked hard on a "software upgrade" announcement.


    Promotionally driven spikes when short stocks locked in downtrends are a fact of life. As I have detailed extensively, both of the above names have extensive valuation and execution risks, In my view.


    I continue to believe energy stocks are extremely risky as a group here at their current valuations vs crude oil, and that disorderly credit events are very possible in this sector.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond Foolishness: Investors Chasing An Elusive Bottom In Energy -- Beware A Crash.  [View instapost]
    Post Fed Meeting update -- Standing Pat.

    Per my comments in my "Fed Editorial Blog", I believe we are in a developing "currency war"; with US dollar strength as a predominant theme.

    While yesterday was uncomfortable for my energy related shorts, nothing for me has fundamentally changed.

    It is telling the US dollar sell off, especially against the Euro, appears to be unwinding already.

    Yesterday afternoon I added to shorts, with the following:
    Short JOY 40.50
    SHORT MBLY 43.00
    SHORT WLL 40.25 (takeover rumour)
    I am also short oil stock COS.TO from @ 9.20 C$

    All of these went immediately "onside" this morning. Likewise, yesterdays energy stock rally has been largely reversed already.

    I remain with all other positions above, although I have closed longs in my regional bank longs.

    I remain short BABA and TSLA, which has spiked hard on a "software upgrade" announcement.

    Promotionally driven spikes when short stocks locked in downtrends are a fact of life. As I have detailed extensively, both of the above names have extensive valuation and execution risks, In my view.

    I continue to believe energy stocks are extremely risky as a group here at their current valuations vs crude oil, and that disorderly credit events are very possible in this sector.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Wall Street Doesn't Want You To Know: The Foolishness Of Chasing The Most Popular Themes [View article]
    VERY interesting as I write this -- the dollar has already regained a large portion of its post Fed selloff, and seems to speak to the power of the dollar bill trend, even as Fed rate hike expectations evaporate.

    I am cautious on certain US stocks including energy for this reason, yesterday was quite a squeeze against my current thesis. The days and weeks ahead will be interesting.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased Exposure To Financial Sector: Bought The Vanguard Financials ETF [View article]
    SG,

    I agree with your basic Macro points.

    I suppose I "worry" about a couple of large unknowns -- apart from valuation. I can't predict low inflation over such a long period, nor low interest rates, for one -- this is the present state. I assume your last paragraph is tongue in cheek, somewhat.

    My other worries would be the "unwind" of the large amount on the Feds balance sheet -- perhaps it will just run off --- and I'm concerned over a Chinese devaluation and the large amount of US dollar denominated debt.

    Perhaps most of all I'd like to see markets trade and be valued without any emergency stimulus -- but we all have to accept what is there -- suppose IT appears the Fed is managing markets as much as the economy, IMO --
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased Exposure To Financial Sector: Bought The Vanguard Financials ETF [View article]
    Interesting.

    Perhaps it is a foolish question -- but as I do I believe you see valuations as stretched.

    Is it even possible to foresee a correction in such an environment without recognized inflation and completely accommodative central banks? Have lasting corrections been eliminated through such agressive central banks? Somehow their continued aggressiveness makes me more wary, which seems like the wrong approach, by the market's reaction.

    I look at the Fed guaranteeing liquidity, bonds providing no competition, I ask myself why am I cautious -- let alone short anything like Tesla stock.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That's Not How Any Of This Works [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    My editorial. Colour me -- confused. Comments welcome.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Wall Street Doesn't Want You To Know: The Foolishness Of Chasing The Most Popular Themes [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    My brief and perhaps simplistic Fed Editorial. I invite comment. I freely admit I am finding this stage difficult to comfortably navigate, although I am having a very solid trading year.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Wall Street Doesn't Want You To Know: The Foolishness Of Chasing The Most Popular Themes [View article]
    LTTF;

    Appreciate your comment.

    What is your big picture thought on the current environment, if you are willing to share this?
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased Exposure To Financial Sector: Bought The Vanguard Financials ETF [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1Cxa9KH

    Passing this on. Your thoughts would be nice.

    Questions he raises may be redundant, but I have them too. And I continue to struggle with "paying up" for assets at current valuations, especially if the economy is slowing as the Fed indicates.

    Market doesn't agree, clearly.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased Exposure To Financial Sector: Bought The Vanguard Financials ETF [View article]
    Thanks SG
    Mar 18, 2015. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased Exposure To Financial Sector: Bought The Vanguard Financials ETF [View article]
    SG;

    Any initial thoughts?
    Mar 18, 2015. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Share Accumulation Averaging Down In A Collapsed Sector: Play-By-Play [View article]
    Vicad;

    No worries. Might have said a 30's print, 39.99.

    I don't see a fundamental reason to change this view; however it is never easy to make predictions in light of what is apparently a currency war. I am having some of my other comments removed that have little purpose here.
    Mar 18, 2015. 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Share Accumulation Averaging Down In A Collapsed Sector: Play-By-Play [View article]
    Vicad;

    Nowhere I recall predicting $30 oil anywhere.

    I believe somewhere I might have written I expect a test of a 40 handle. Yesterday we saw 42 area basis april.

    I believe certain stocks have lower to trade and am positioned accordingly.

    I have made no changes or in my views.
    Mar 18, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Share Accumulation Averaging Down In A Collapsed Sector: Play-By-Play [View article]
    Thanks George.

    I agree there are trades there and have done similar in the past. And obviously today was a full risk on as the Fed keeps the taps wide open ----- but structurally I believe risk is to lower commodities and related stocks over the intermediate term.
    Mar 18, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Wall Street Doesn't Want You To Know: The Foolishness Of Chasing The Most Popular Themes [View article]
    "I don't like to see phrases such as "What Wall Street Doesn't Want You To Know"
    and "Wall Street is not a friend of the individual investor"

    Regretfully, LTTF; Wall Street, in my view, taken as a whole, is out to fleece the individual investor. I've been trading 16 years, both on and off the floor, and seen many, many specific examples.

    A new example just appeared -- GS just upgraded (MBLY) with an aggressive price target, 2 days later MBLY launches a big secondary led by ----- GS.

    I'm not saying its this way 100% of the time, of course.
    Mar 18, 2015. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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