Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Robert Duval  

View Robert Duval's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Is The U.S. Economy Still Depressed? [View article]
    Logical,

    And it's funny how people (not corporations) have responded -- savings rates are pretty high too. That's the other side --- there is a lot @$7 trillion -- in savings accounts.

    Rates are too low. Hence Im Short bonds, primarily as a big hedge.

    Rent is high, home ownership has fallen. I think there is a case for home builders to build a batch of homes and renters to buy them.

    If rates have a big move up, yeah even in a stronger economy, the discussion will change, for sure. Let's cross that bridge when we get there.
    May 30, 2015. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The U.S. Economy Still Depressed? [View article]
    DD,

    But it's always been measured the same way, so I don't see the issue.

    Post your link I'd like to see it.

    Median household income, ATH's.
    http://tinyurl.com/nvc...

    Here's another positive -- net worth. Assets are going up, too.

    http://tinyurl.com/oxs...
    May 30, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 50/50 Odds Of Another Distribution Cut In My View [View article]
    I'm curious how any bull can be considered "right" on LINE and the Bears "wrong" when the stock has fallen 75%.

    Haven't you all had enough punishment?

    All I read is the Bears are incompetent naysayers --- Bizzare and laughable.
    May 30, 2015. 12:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDPhriday: QE Doesn't Work, Now What? [View article]
    Nattering ,

    How can we make a major top when yours, most peoples, and mine at times, outlook for the economy and future of America, is so gosh - darned negative?

    Just saying
    May 30, 2015. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Bubble Market: Avoid Treasuries And Lending To The U.S. Government For Zero Real Return [View article]
    Funny I see it differently, although I understand the frustration over the slow recovery. I see good things in housing continuing to develop.
    May 30, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Bubble Market: Avoid Treasuries And Lending To The U.S. Government For Zero Real Return [View article]
    We aren't japan, and this is why: population growth.

    http://tinyurl.com/oa2...

    Google japans -- it's flat. No growth.

    Now look at median ages -- any idea why I'm bullish on India?

    http://tinyurl.com/ojz...
    May 30, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The U.S. Economy Still Depressed? [View article]
    http://tinyurl.com/pbw...

    All relative to rates -- another way to look at it.

    I keep repeating, and on my own articles, rates are the primary risk factor, and the best long term market hedge.
    May 30, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Bubble Market: Avoid Treasuries And Lending To The U.S. Government For Zero Real Return [View article]
    Update.

    I am much more bullish on the economy than the present data would justify. I've subscribed to some of the thinking of an excellent poster named SouthGent, who regretfully stopped writing due to the spineless trolls out there, and believe the economy isn't about to collapse, it's just exceptionally slow as a post - Crisis recovery, and confidence has been slow to return. You see it in the postings, and in the sentiment guages.

    I do think we are due for a nasty correction at some point, but it will be rate driven. Overall, there is a lot of savings and pent up consumer and fiscal demand for housing, infrastructure, and Capex spending, just as a function of time. Sooner or later, consumers, governments and companies, will invest and spend again.

    I also think some other markets are a better deal than the U.S. Let's look at it this way. The inflation adjusted high for the nasdaq composite is above 7000 -- I think 15 years after the 2000 highs it's very reasonable to at least get back there, and maybe to 10,000, ultimately, over a number of years. Not that crazy.

    The risk factors are government debt, and interest rates. Until they show a problem, I'm not bearish, no matter how soft the current data.

    There are undervalued sectors still out there. I won't chase but will dig for those areas instead that will benefit not from cheap rates but from real growth.
    May 30, 2015. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDPhriday: QE Doesn't Work, Now What? [View article]
    Nattering,

    They won't do it -- especially under the democrats who gave them power and position. They'll rope a dope -- talk the responsible game, and have no intention of raising. Any governor that talks about raising, I throw their speech in the garbage. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice.....

    You who would jump in and say the Fed is non - partisan? Please. Grow up and graduate to solid food. It is what it is. The Fed is covering for terrible fiscal policy here. That has to change.

    In any event if this blows up, I believe it will blow up in one of 2, or both, ways: loss of confidence in the bond market (I'm short up the ringer with long dated puts) or through higher inflation (got inflation type stocks, too).

    I expect one of these, ultimately.
    May 30, 2015. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Bubble Market: Avoid Treasuries And Lending To The U.S. Government For Zero Real Return [View article]
    http://tinyurl.com/pzu...

    "Baml analyst grows cautious on China"

    ""Price drives research and analysis, not the other way around," writes BAML's Ajay Singh Kapur, with a line anyone in the business should tape to the top of their Bloomberg terminal.What was for a long time a sizable underweight position in Chinese equities by money managers, has now likely become a small overweight, says Kapur. "

    Our hedge fund clients seem to be very engaged on the long side. Bull markets create their own narrative, as do bear markets."But what about Chinese stocks being cheap on a price-to-earnings basis? Focus on enterprise value instead, says Kapur.

    Corporate debt of $12.5T is 125% of Chinese GDP vs. 101% in Japan, 67% in the U.S., and 45% in India. Using enterprise value to earnings (enterprise value would incorporate debt), the valuation of Chinese A-shares is the highest in the world on an absolute basis."


    Robert here -- it's amazing how investors continually get sucked into a bull story, just because its the flavour of the month. I've seen it again, again and again in my 17 years in the game, less real analysis but simple lemming like behaviour by those macro tourists now all experts on Chinese growth.

    A poster child has to be Alibaba, which by virtue of a $10 dollar rally from its all time lows at $80 to current $90 price, has the victory dances happening from the sheeple hanging on every word of Baba's rock star leader, Jack Ma.

    Never mind the fall from 120 to 80, no one bought a single share up there, or a share structure or accounting I wouldn't trust my last nickel to, like so many Chinese companies. Hey, if the gamble pays, great!

    As for me, you notice which country has the lowest debt on the list -- and the best secular growth story -- India -- I'm heavily invested there for the long run. I'll patiently wait for it to become "the" story.
    May 30, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Appears To Be In Trouble [View article]
    John,

    Completely agree -- well said.
    May 30, 2015. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The U.S. Economy Still Depressed? [View article]
    Ken,

    Disagree -- I do see the consumer coming back. Wage growth is on the rise. Consumers have develeraged and had a high savings preference. There is massive pent up Demand for housing being under trend, and sooner or later this will drive spending.
    May 30, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Bubble Market: Avoid Treasuries And Lending To The U.S. Government For Zero Real Return [View article]
    Ultimately, buying bonds today is actually fighting the CB's, as the CB's all want higher inflation. Now I'll admit this was the right trade, even up to last year -- and I was long TLT calls last year myself!

    I've switched camps though. I believe between the CB's, perhaps changes in fiscal policy, or just a function of time, inflation expectations will rise.

    What really did it for me was seeing McDonald's, Walmart ect raise wages, along with companies lending as long as they can. Mexico issuing 100 year bonds. How can it be deflationary when the bottom end is raising wages.

    I'll admit I don't know the timing, but I'll bet we look back at German, Swiss, nestle bonds trading negative as a massive bubble one day.
    May 30, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The U.S. Economy Still Depressed? [View article]
    Logical,

    I would normally agree but the time is right for 2 huge government initiatives: tax reform to encourage companies to Capex spend,

    And borrow 1-2 trillion, issue 50 year bonds, all for productive infrastructure projects -- internet / pipeline, roads rail and airports.

    That's not debt -- that's investing in productive assets. It will pay back. And what an opportunity to finance super long for cheap.
    May 29, 2015. 10:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 50/50 Odds Of Another Distribution Cut In My View [View article]
    Line is a financially troubled company I have been cautious on for some time. I have tried to short this stock on several occasions and could not get a borrow.

    I expect a distribution cut soon at it seems clear Line is attempting to raise and conserve cash, which should be no surprise.

    Unlike this author who asks genuine questions, another concern is posters -- contributors -- here on SA with an agenda, who are outright promoters of this stock, quoting mistruths. One recently posted the only reason Line is down is due to oil falling to $45, conveniently omitting oils rally to $60 -- and Line is even lower now than then?

    We need to hear itelligent discussion, not agenda, shill driven promotion.
    May 29, 2015. 10:24 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
6,551 Comments
4,119 Likes