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Robert Duval  

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  • It Takes Courage To Not Run With The Bull [View article]
    Adam,

    FWIW,

    I find your attitude in both admitting being "wrong" as you call it -- and for congratulating Bulls through this period completely refreshing. Openness, honesty, flexibility and humility are 4 big keys to Long term investment success, defined as multiple bull and bear cycles, as opposed to a liquidity driven bull, alone. These traits serve investors well and separate those able to ride a bull train from those who outperform during all cycles.

    On another note, I find those who blanketly dismiss others work when quality is presented, and especially when blanket labels and derogatory remarks are included, they themselves have substandard performance.

    In Fear and Greed traders case, he has been heavily long energy producers from last years highs, publically recommending more purchases then, and riding these down to heavy losses. Not one admission "I was wrong" in spite of 70% + down.

    For the record, -- I don't call that "getting it right". IF you declare a bull market, but pick stocks that lose money, I for one am not impressed.

    This is all documented in his writings. So I commend you by contrast, for your true transparency.
    Apr 11, 2015. 11:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Takes Courage To Not Run With The Bull [View article]
    You know Tony, on every SINGLE comment you promote your book!

    Tell you what. I'd be interested IF you could show me you've made, and kept, at least a couple of million -- dollars that is -- from this game.

    "Performance equals credibility".

    Otherwise give it a rest, please.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought 2 Gastar Exploration 8.625% Senior Secured Bonds Maturing In May 2018 [View article]
    SG;

    TRQ is in partnership on a massive Gold, copper, and other metals find in Mongolia. The site is in production but the political challenges are formidable. Stock has trended down from 30 to 3! since 2011. Stock broke out of this weekly downtrend for whatever reason.

    Premise is to layer into some inflation protection, copper is looking constructive and I am reading some smart (industry) comments on a copper shortage in 2017. Stocks would move first.

    Higher quality names would include SCCO, FCX, TCK.
    Apr 10, 2015. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    GE - GENERAL ELECTRIC CO Filled
    10 Apr 2015 09:49 AM EST 150410XXXXX Sell XXXX (one Half) 27.86 US Day CA

    For an overnight 8% gain.......Yep that works--- I had quite a chunk so selling half seemed prudent
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    GILD - GILEAD SCIENCES INC Filled
    09 Apr 2015 09:58 AM EST 15040XXXX Buy XXXX 100.75 US Day DA

    Forgot -- One more bought yesterday for the wedge breakout.
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought 2 Gastar Exploration 8.625% Senior Secured Bonds Maturing In May 2018 [View article]
    2 "Inflation assets" I bought yesterday. You would consider them high risk flyers; understandably. One oi; One copper.

    Perhaps you will want to stick them on a watch list. High risk, yes, but potential reward, likewise. Second one trades on NY as well, (TRQ), just broke out from a long downtrend; I paid @ 3.50 equivalent I guess in USD.

    PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA PETROBRAS Filled
    09 Apr 2015 10:07 AM EST 150409BXXXXX Buy XXXX 7.2 US Day DA

    TRQ - TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES LTD Filled
    09 Apr 2015 10:07 AM EST 150409BXXXX Buy XXXX 4.53 CDN Day DA

    Keep one half an eyelid on copper.......
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Update -- Second Quarter 2015 [View instapost]
    GE - GENERAL ELECTRIC CO Filled
    09 Apr 2015 03:24 PM EST 150409BXXXXX Buy XXXX 25.81 US Day DA

    I bought a nice chunk GE on the real estate news.

    I may trim to lock in a profit over 28
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA PETROBRAS Filled
    09 Apr 2015 10:07 AM EST 150409BXXXXX Buy XXXX 7.2 US Day DA

    TRQ - TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES LTD Filled
    09 Apr 2015 10:07 AM EST 150409BXXXX Buy XXXX 4.53 CDN Day DA

    GE - GENERAL ELECTRIC CO Filled
    09 Apr 2015 03:24 PM EST 150409BXXXXX Buy XXXX 25.81 US Day DA

    23 Mar 2015 LL - LUMBER LIQUIDATORS HOLDINGS INC AVG PRICE SHOWN-DETAILS ON REQ UNSOLICITED DA
    Buy XXXX 28.5739 -XXXXX USD 26 Mar 2015

    There's three for the detracters out there, right from the (yesterday's) actual statement ; bought a nice chunk GE on the real estate news. I'm not disclosing quantity, its irrelavant. And then one more from 2 weeks ago, that I still have (LL)

    Check the prices, I'm looking good.

    I'm sure the detracters will find something else, get a life. If you can't trade; don't diss those you can. Sucks to be you, in other words.

    Others who want to discuss with me ideas, join my blog.

    Done with this ridiculous conversation.
    Apr 10, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SG,

    I agree, and I'm sorry. I don't hestitate to say I've learned a lot from your perspective. You are one of the most rational writers on SA.

    Hence , in my blogs and in my handful of articles, I write my running thoughts as a journalling excercise. I write for me, not to prove performance to others. If my thinking is right, performance will take care of itself.

    Hence, I'm not posting individual trades, prices or whatever on this thread, other than for clarity to state I exited my individual short positions.

    I don't see any value in doing any further.
    Apr 9, 2015. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    Uhmm....I'm far from brilliant -- my commentary should make that apparent -- make lots of mistakes.

    And -- a lot of my trades are long positons -- and some long term investments as well. They all contribute.

    As far as posting --- my ideas will have to do as posted, for anyone's benefit, and my own tracking of my thoughts -- so I think this conversations concluded.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 9, 2015. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SA....just to be clear on my views. I see, broadly; outside of selected areas like private equity and junior biotech, stocks are not in a bubble -- just very pricy.

    Bonds are another story; they are in bubble territory, IMO. I thought bonds might pop, incite a big, buyable correction in stocks -- but it hasn't happened.

    It's a multi move chess game; and my read is just too early.

    Inflation is likely to show up first, bidding up inflation stocks; then long bonds tank, corporates, then Fed is forced to tighten. Not before, there is time then for inflation rotation -- EM, Copper, Oil, ect.....
    Apr 9, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    "You are trying to short a raging bull market in stocks which is difficult to do even when your short positions are justified by fact based and rational reasons."

    Its hard to argue with that. And the longer we consolidate sideways without breaking, the more dangerous shorting is, as we work off the bullish sentiment excess.

    I am ( repeatedly) trying to anticipate issues that are likely to arise but haven't yet. Its too hard and I don't need to be "first". Less is more, I keep telling myself.

    I saw EM as an opportunity before it moved. I've squandered some of that. I do see good long side opportunities, but get thrown off focus.

    Not happy with my recent decisions even if the damage is minor.
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    "But fact is earnings are in decline and stock valuations are getting higher every day."

    -- And they may get higher still.
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Update -- Second Quarter 2015 [View instapost]
    Made back today most of the losses from those (premature) shorts; PBR HLF others running.

    I repeat to myself -- again and again -- valuation shorts will only work with serious competition from higher interest rates.

    And for that -- higher inflation is (likely) to come first -- so buy a few assets that might benefit from that -- instead of shorting.

    There is active chatter about a June hike. Market doesn't care. 2040 on the SPX held. Thats it. Have to listen, and keep listening! I expected a nasdaq break as noted above. Tried to ANTICIPATE, (again) that is costly. It didn't happen, rotation happened instead.

    I took another small loss, and small losses -- are OK. Large ones aren't. Too many mistakes lately -- will try to move on -- a bit frustrated with myslelf trying to forecast a correction.

    It's too early; Robert. This is a LONG cycle.

    I'll stick to my long plays, but keep the option protection --
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SA;

    I get where you are coming from; but only pockets of the market are really crazy at this juncture, and I can't even make money, with any reliability, shorting those areas.

    There is too much liquidity. Whether this is morally a good thing or a future disaster, is less important to me that not getting run over while this all plays out.

    Bottom line; as I wrote on my blog, but haven't always listened to my own counsel; is big problems will show in the bond market first.

    And so far they haven't. So I'm back to long side (only) but with protection from QQQ long dated puts.
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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