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Robert Duval

 
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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    DD,

    questions. Is the lack of alternatives, as a primary reason you mention, valid regardless of valuation metrics,

    And regarding any recession, do you believe it would be apparent before markets reprice for this, or only in hindsight?

    Lastly, how do you explain the continuing flattening of the yield curve as a bullish event?

    One more, how do you feel about the continuing overall caution in the billionaire club?
    Aug 17 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    SG,

    What about the debt side of the equation?
    Aug 17 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    T,

    Meaningless.
    Aug 17 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    T,

    That's only true of fortress companies like P&G, like you referenced earlier.

    Weaker companies borrowing in the high yield debt market to sustain share buy backs and dividend payouts, aren't remotely comparable and you should know this.

    I understand the debt markets just fine, sir.
    Aug 17 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    T,

    Think I'm going to get a mortgage today -- I don't have one presently -- throw half away, dump the rest of the cash in my account -- and then of course I'll still be x hundreds of thousands richer, because as we both know, the debt doesnt count.
    Aug 17 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    EU,

    Not sure what you're thinking, but be advised defensive or cautious comments are not permitted here.

    Only on SA does one recommend raising 30%+ cash and be labeled a 2008 doom and gloomer.

    Fwiw all, although its been a tough slog lately, I'm still up 18% this year.

    If this is "getting killed" I'll take it. Yes, I know it's not great, and I'm not that happy with it either, and yes I'm frustrated, but I'll live and continue to trade what I see.
    Aug 17 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    L,

    Sounds like a challenge and I refuse to rise to the bait.

    Its data. I don't know, with certainty, and neither does anyone else, what and when will occur based on the data. I am simply counseling caution, at this time, as I have for some time, which hasn't cost anyone much, if any money.

    If people want to read in to that, that I'm a gold and canned goods loving person expecting a 2008 crash, that's their perogative. I never said that, neither have I been bearish since the 2009 lows, but I get tired of having that thrown around.
    Aug 17 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    T,

    I am cautious on the SPX, correct, and recommend investors raise some cash.

    Beyond that it has no impact on my trading strategy or results. I am trading basis IWM. In that sense I'm agnostic SPX, so its incorrect when people imply I'm short the SPX and getting killed, or even underperforming.

    Again, what is the point of this, when I just showed your "cash" argument to be what it is?
    Aug 17 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    Gee, I think 18 billon inflows into stock ETF's in one month is more relevant than 700 million cumulative outflows over 7 years, don't you??
    Aug 17 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    L,

    It's all data which should be considered in light of the consensus belief. I'm also outlying my investment strategy.

    Personally when it comes to mis-statements I'm tired, of repeatedly stating since the spring, I'm agnostic -- or cautious --on the large cap SPX, I'm correctly bearish on the IWM and remain so, then getting comments on how many points the SPX has rallied, which I have no position.

    I don't care what the SPX has done. Clear?
    Aug 17 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/1Bndwk1

    "investors pour 18 billion into ETF funds in July alone, most of it into equities".

    Lots of other "hard data" on this site as opposed to distorted charts with no links.

    People will though believe what they wish!
    Aug 17 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    It's purely an academic observation , challenging the widespread belief ( as repeated in the Barron's column) that the public is fearfully hiding in bonds, cash, gold, and is "not ready" to invest in equities yet, that the public is suffering from some form of 2008 PTSD.
     
    To that whole theory, I call --- crap.

    Tack, that's what I wrote. The question is, do you read accurrately, or enjoy misquoting others?

    No-where did I say that there is not lots of cash around on corporations balance sheet. And yes the source of CASH is relevant, regardless of what you say.

    To you, if I rang up my gold card to its 15,000 limit, and showed 5,000 in cash in the bank, that would be bullish.
    Aug 16 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    L,

    "here" is hardly a consensus view to go on. How many are on this blog? Give me a break.

    The consensus view, in any mainstream publication or economist, has been US economic acceleration, for quite some time. US long bonds, which are rallying and I have long been bullish on, are telling quite a different tale.

    The yield curve continues to flatten.
    Aug 16 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    Jeff,

    What are your thoughts on the very public cautiousness expressed by a number of investing billionaires this year. (soros, Klarman, Ross, etc...)....a number are net sellers / or holding cash piles aka Buffett.

    Speaking of headlines....check out the story in Barrons on investors fleeing equities (mutual funds) for bonds for 3 straight months....then check out etf.com and see the record inflows this year and last into equity ETF's like spy....totally distortive by barrons.
    Aug 16 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #36 [View instapost]
    T, there are 2 separate points here you are blending together, individuals and corporations.

    I'd like to you to provide a link, showing that the NET equity of the bottom 98% of individuals -- lets call it cash - debt, is at a "record high". Let's exclude the rich, as they have hugely benefited from the run-up in asset prices.

    On corporations ---
    This is your point, that the debt is "meaningless". That's a ridiculous comment. If I as a corporation have 100M on the balance sheet in cash, but over the last few years have assumed 200M in new junk rated debt, that is certainly meaningful to any investor in that company.

    Just because investors have been willing to roll that junk rated debt at crazy low yields, one cannot assume that into perpetuity.
    Aug 16 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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