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Robert Duval

 
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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    T -- not loading -- still 25% cash. But it is a market of stocks, I like the price, so I took a 2% position.

    I'm getting more interested in housing. While Europe is all the news, what was overlooked was an important change in mortgage credit availability recently, by the new FHA director. Google it.

    Anyway very quietly housing stocks are starting to lead, and they won't care about europe. I note lumber futures, during an absolute death period for commodities, are rallying. I am long one lumber company, I added to the position, and this isn't a bad reason to nibble on CAT.

    Certainly the SPX could drop another 100. I have no idea, to be honest.

    My longs are (India) which will hardly budge off its highs;
    Beaten up energy, Solar, focused on China, which has been trashed, and Housing.

    The continuing difficulty with shorting for me, other than day trades, is low rates provide zero competition for stocks.

    One day the collective leaders will wake up, hopefully, and borrow a ton of money to build infrastructure. This is the rational thing to do. I'd think about preparing for this.
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    FG;

    Maybe we get there by 4:15
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    L this is a good day to buy something, assuming you still have a large cash %
    Jan 28, 2015. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    Tennessee, which is quite pretty by air (I've overflown it several times) is rather warmer...
    Jan 28, 2015. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    If one is willing to look ahead, it strikes me this is an excellent spot to open a small long CAT position.

    If EITHER housing OR fiscal infrastructure comes back, stock has upside to 120.00 (50%)

    Long CAT (small size)
    Jan 28, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    T;

    Not enough sugar in the Fed statement. Be careful out there. Buy cheap or distressed, don't overpay.

    Junk bonds keep holding up, though.

    I'm shorting the US dollar here. (by buying the british pound) This is a short term futures trade
    Jan 28, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    I've added to my Fannie Mae preferred's at 4.20 that I've held -- shockingly to some for a number of months now -- as an investment -- not an hourly trade. Wow.

    These are par 25.00 preferred's trading at 4.30; essentially they are an option that a court at some point will restore their legal right to keep their profits and pay dividends.

    Shockingly also for those who seem to think holding periods matter more than profits, I am not planning to sell them today even up 18%

    Symbol is FNMAS.

    Did I mention I haven't day traded my 3 Indian positions either today?
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    In 1987 the market went practically parabolic that year, before topping in the late summer and culminating in the crash.

    Contrary to belief, the crash did not happen from new highs, but after a corrective period, following a parabolic rally, and was precipitated by a dispute over the dollar between the U.S. and Germany. I think it was secretary Baker -- who on TV on the weekend, blasted the Germans and said, "the US will let the dollar slide".

    Extremely destabilizing comments, and likely foreigners rushed to exit US assets on the Monday morning, setting in motion the conditions for a crash.

    As stated many differences, but yet another currency war as catalyst -- so impossible to ever happen again? No way I'd say that. Who knows?

    If we get a parabolic rally, combined with a hiking cycle in interest rates, you can bet the farm I'll be shorting into it, at some point.
    Jan 27, 2015. 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    For those interested, one product I've switched teams on is TLT. I did rather well on a large call position, I'm out of that completely -- a least a couple - 3 weeks ago -- and am looking to short it (via the futures.). I did this profitably both today and yesterday, but am unwilling yet to hold a short position.

    A change in inflation data or a big spike in oil, would give me more conviction on this trade. For now it's in a testing phase, as is attempting to buy crude oil, which so far hasn't really worked yet, around the 45 area.
    Jan 27, 2015. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    Send me all your long positions. I might want to pick and choose.
    Jan 27, 2015. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/VLyvaM

    Pay up then. Looks like a full 1 1/2 percent in rate hikes 1986-1987.

    Anything else?

    Effective rate from SG's data:
    1986 10 01: 5.85%
    1987 10 01. 7.29%

    Above you claim only a 0.5% raise. You're wrong.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    As I said L.

    Macro tourists want to debate. I just want to make money.

    Done debating. I've posted the links. Argue all you like. If you think its 87 again short the snot out of it for all I care.

    Stupid is as stupid does.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    E,

    How much money do you have?

    Put another way, let me know what you are long. I'm always looking for new short candidates.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    L,

    The people on SA who complain about Macro tourists who exclaim,

    "This is exactly like 1987".

    Or "this is exactly like 1929"!

    It gets annoying because most of them don't have a clue, because they dont know their history.

    I forget how many times the Fed had raised rates in 1986/1987, but it's at least 6 times before the crash. I don't know about you, I call that "tightening". The curve might even have been inverted. (Not sure about that but with 7.25 FF rates -- must have been close)

    You can bet I will approach the market a bit differently after the Fed tightens 6 times, this go around, too.

    We are --- replaying some of the 1930's today -- but with the benefit of a Fed who throughly studied that period. If they make the same mistakes, or the world does via trade wars etc as was made then, we may have a similiar problem.

    So far, that hasn't happened, but we remain viligent.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #61 [View instapost]
    Obviously you don't know your history.

    The Fed Funds rate was over 7% prior to oct 1987, and the Fed had been tightening steadily since mid 1986, also to protect the US dollar which was tanking leading up to the crash.

    Absolutely nothing like today, remotely.

    http://nyfed.org/xezasZ

    Anything else?
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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