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Robert Duval  

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  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Energex,

    Shale oil is not coal but my point is the parallels with massive debt, overproduction, international competition, rapid expansion of supply, then slowing rate of demand growth, all combined can be devastating to stock prices.

    And we are seeing that already in some names like LINE, EXXI, ect.

    And not one Mea culpa from Bullish pundits at 3-5 times today's prices. Pretty incredible isn't it. No humility.

    I don't know the long term future but admittedly I don't expect it to get as bad as coal for better quality US shale.

    But I never saw an iron ore stock like Vale at $5 either. Look at FCX today. Horrible.
    Jul 24, 2015. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Stas, (and others) I'll add my long exposure when done like this has not only price stops but time stops. Has to work fairly soon. Clock is ticking already.

    Snake there has been some energy fund blowups, apparently
    Jul 24, 2015. 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Stad,

    All bought over the last 2 days, except an older modest position in CPG

    MEMP CPE BCEI very small in ECA and materials TCK

    Prior to that, shorts in WLL PXD CLR and material JOY. - All covered now.
    Jul 24, 2015. 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Tack ---

    I find it interesting that (notably -- unlike your cautious commentary for some time) -- I am only reading today from previously perma - bullish pundits comments like "of course energy is going lower" "watching for a entry point" "ready with cash to take avantage of bargains"

    Really? Funny all I've read prior is "fully invested" and "energy is in a bull market" and "anyone bearish / cautious is an irrational "hater" (love that word).

    Now where did all these magical oceans of cash come from to buy the dip? What about the existing overweight position in energy positions, suffering massive losses, and now conveniently forgotten?

    Lots of creative writing.

    The switch in prominent commentary is a further bounce signal to me. Loads of intangibles.
    Jul 24, 2015. 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Tack;

    The problem now is thats widely recognized commodities will never rally in our lifetimes. Gotta wash some of that out.

    CNBC declaring a bear market, and not one buyer to be declared here or anywhere.

    My data show energy sentiment to be at least at a decade low (that was yesterday)

    I can't stay short with this going on.

    I was a day or 2 early starting my turn. Today is ideal. Maybe one day i will learn how to do this.

    No warranties and I've been pretty careful what I bought.
    Jul 24, 2015. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    LOL -- Thats hilarious. I have one tiny gold stock position.
    Jul 24, 2015. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Is Illusory. Events May Be, Too [View article]
    Gel;

    Happens on both sides all the time. What about JPM bullish on AXON? Wheres the accountability for bulling that crooked stock?

    What about the firms bulling energy as their pro desks get short? Don;t think that happens? Please!
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Tack;

    I expect the Fed to fight this. Then we squeeze hard esp weak dollar plays.

    Rinse, Repeat. Look at the prices.

    I bought ECA TCK at prices 1/3 of one year ago. Good companies. But measured size.

    Be aware all its a bear market in energy. Simply looking for hard snapback
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Tack;

    I am still 40% cash / net shorts against my buys.
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey Of Equity Valuation Models [View article]
    Buy and hold;

    I am buying some totally destroyed energy here. I have flipped from short in that area as clearly and transparently disclosed in my articles, to a net long position in these areas. Consensus is to sell and I see no one willing to buy today, so I will.

    I still hold about 40% cash and short exposure.

    Unlike most you are highly transparent about your strategy and exposure.

    If Energy rebounds you will likely read AFTER the fact how much others bought at the low tick and what geniuses they are, from pundits attempting to drive newsletter sales and whatever. Don't believe the promoters.

    My question is where did the cash come from to buy this giant allocation to destroyed energy or anything else, since I see none of these pundits disclosing "raising cash" as I did at much higher prices in energy.

    Hence they have NONE to buy with now.
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Energex;

    Trades must be managed. I am taking a portion of substantial profits and risking them on buying some destroyed, grossly oversold names that are well hedged and I think are extremely cheap.

    And energy and commodity bear market is now the complete consensus. Its quite risk profile different shorting a stock like WLL down 40% now from where I shorted it just a few short weeks ago.

    I've been trading commodity stocks and markets for 17 years.

    If you have a better trade idea; please post it here so we can all evaluate it, or publish something with your positions and macro strategy.
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/17/15 [View instapost]
    SG;

    I am back in WTBA and after a look at the situation, have bought a little FFBC.

    I am quite bullish on regional banks longer term.

    FFBC much higher than here will have a big chart breakout
    Jul 24, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought Back The Linn Energy 8.625% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing In 2020 [View instapost]
    SG,

    I attempt -- poorly I'll admit at times -- I will sometimes attempt to buy into a free fall if my sense of the market sentiment, particpant positioning, level of emotion and panic, ect, makes a swing favourable.

    I will reduce on any substantial bounce -- then re-evaluate.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought Back The Linn Energy 8.625% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing In 2020 [View instapost]
    SG, contrary to my own comments, I've added more for a least another bounce. Sentimemt is awful, washed out, throwing up bad. Have to selectively add.
    Jul 23, 2015. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Tack,

    I'd rather -- nibble on quality hedged energy here --- bought more today, notwithstanding my own article --- yes I can be my own contrary indicator! --- than chasing the rock stars everyone and his brother are chasing these days --- and declaring cheap on every 3% dip -- Junior biotechs without a product, security stocks, social media, and the really eyebrow raising choice --- LOL -- airlines!

    Not only airlines, but loading up and chasing airline stocks -- one of the sickest sectors in history -- just as energy is deeply oversold, economy raises eyebrows, and airline stocks have already had a massive run, and the government is investigating collusion.

    I paired buying some energy stocks with shorting 2 airlines. Don't care how cheap they are. Let's see what happens.

    If investors would stop simply chasing and listening to Wall Street -- and chasing pundits everywhere -- they might improve their returns.

    I'm likely wrong that oil will ever get as bad as coal, as coal is a steel component, which went into oversupply as China has slowed, and oil will always have a demand. But it was worth exploring the question.
    Jul 23, 2015. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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