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Robert Duval  

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  • Why Greece Should Follow The Example Of Argentina [View article]
    Greece is likely on its way out, and the Euro will rally.
    Apr 22, 2015. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The PBOC's Latest Move Should Not Be Ignored By Commodities Investors [View article]
    What do you fly?
    Apr 22, 2015. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade - Is It Time To Prepare? [View article]
    I'm shifting to more of an inflationary stance as stated above. Added (FCX) (CCJ) and sold right out of (HLF) stock -- still have calls (BBRY) -- doing nothing -- and (GILD) stock and calls.

    Fine company, but I'm thinking rotation here and need to sell something to make room for the theme I see developing, Biotech has had a massive run.
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade - Is It Time To Prepare? [View article]
    Sleeper, high risk play on housing -- destroyed flooring name (LL)

    Forming a higher base here, if gets much above 34-35 (current 33.65) ; a lot of room to squeeze higher.

    LOng stock, calls.
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    Tack;

    Only got a minute but a couple of thoughts:

    1. US economy IMO is stronger than it appears. All about housing to me.
    2. Europe -- Don't care much; and certainly not about Greece.
    3. Indian future commodity demand is the sleeper story here.
    4. IMO Energy MLP's are not the way to play this, but to each his own. EG. today MEMP - 2% , a fine MLP, and (PBR) and (CPE) up 3-4%
    5. TLT has broken down from where I sit from an important chart formation, and my shorts there are solidly profitable.

    Just my $0.02
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    SG;

    I'm not advocating selling stocks on this, only to hold inflation protection / higher rate protection in some form.

    I am only inclined to become overtly defensive if rates have a huge disorderly move higher, and for that reason I would keep one half of an eyeball on LQD and JNK if TLT starts to really move. We're not remotely close to that level of concern for me.

    However I am happy to hold the TLT puts and they are nice insurance if a stupid type selloff appears.
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade -- Is Is Time To Prepare?  [View instapost]
    I've added (FCX) to my inflation stable this morning as it completes a base, and yields start to move on the positive housing data, a key theme.

    I've paid for this by lightening on (HLF) between 45-47 ; for a nice 20%-25% gain of this partial position.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    SG -- Long Yields have broken through after multiple tests. Inflation assets, with housing as a catalyst, are starting to move.

    30-yr yields now touching month-long range highs just above 2.6%. That's where we have the 50-day SMA in rates. Also range lows in TLT and 50-day sma.

    After housing data this morning; we traded through this range; setting a potential big upward extension in long rates, and a curve steepener. I expect money to begin to flow out of fixed income, and into inflationary assets, as this housing based strength is recognized.

    I am well positioned for this with long allocations to housing, metals, energy, and regional banks; as detailed in my blog, today I added (FCX) to this.

    I am both short 30 year treasuries and long Jan 2016 TLT puts.

    I would not hold any long bonds; or bond substitutes, right now with what I see developing.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade - Is It Time To Prepare? [View article]
    CPAR; (and an Update) --

    30-yr yields now touching month-long range highs just above 2.6%. That's where we have the 50-day SMA in rates. Also range lows in TLT and 50-day sma.

    After housing data this morning; we traded through this range; setting a potential big upward extension in long rates, and a curve steepener. I expect money to begin to flow out of fixed income, and into inflationary assets, as this housing based strength is recognized.

    I am well positioned for this with long allocations to housing, metals, energy, and regional banks; as detailed in my blog, today I added (FCX) to this.

    I am both short 30 year treasuries and long Jan 2016 TLT puts.

    CP;

    I would not be long ANYTHING like Bonds or Bond like instruments, IMO. That means utilities, Reits, ect.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 4/20/15 [View instapost]
    Dart throwing also works, but my wife doesn't like me making holes in the wall.

    Had to make a choice, and weighed your comments on BANC. So I have the 2. Should likely have more. Waiting on that steeper curve........

    Lots of other irons in the fire at this time, too.
    Apr 21, 2015. 07:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Could Trigger Next Rally For Industrial Commodities [View article]
    Agree, agree, agree. India is the sleeper story here. Combined with other factors, now Is the time to start an allocation to commodity focused assets. Here are some other factors, which recently have led me to establish positions listed below:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Long India (FIH.TO), GXG, TRQ, PBR, MBT, HMCLY , others.
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 4/20/15 [View instapost]
    Thanks SG. No changes from me on these (or anything else)

    Long WTBA, BHB
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade - Is It Time To Prepare? [View article]
    I think so. Competition for risk assets in the form of higher rates.
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade - Is It Time To Prepare? [View article]
    Vicad' I don't know it well but its a way to play Russia, certainly.

    I think one will need to be patient with these ideas, but perhaps there will be movement over the next year in inflation assets.
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade - Is It Time To Prepare? [View article]
    601 --

    on Housing I like the builders (XHB) and Fannie Mae as a special situation. (FNMA)

    I bought SNC in Toronto, where it is widely traded (SNC.TO)
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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