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Robert Duval  

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  • Mistakes Made -- (Part 2) The Fallacy Of Focus On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements.  [View instapost]
    SG;

    Home sales are finally moving. I've bought back VMC to hold alongside Holcim. Looks ready to break higher.

    The strength in treasuries remains rather bizzare.

    I've added more GILD calls, as I see a resolution of this wedge to the upside, soon.

    Dap -- TTM -- believe this is on a rights issue. Certainly anything India got over bought. This is a great entry price to lock away in a drawer, IMO. I have my allocation.

    I have bought a tiny bit of Russia to go with my Brazil EWZ, as I build the EM side.
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mistakes Made -- (Part 2) The Fallacy Of Focus On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements.  [View instapost]
    T;

    Only until the next secondary. Risk remains high; and I do not endorse this frantic "buy of the decade" mentality towards energy stocks carte blanche
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mistakes Made -- (Part 2) The Fallacy Of Focus On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements.  [View instapost]
    Morning update. Gild trade is working well as stock breaks 102 and heads for upside test of the 103 wedge area. Long stock, calls. Home sales were very strong, I have been bullish in this area.

    I note the continued weakness in energy stocks as the massive secondary in WLL shares (-20%) trashes the bottom fishing in this sector. Makes you wonder who is next! Those of us cautious here are being vindicated.

    I also note, again, BABA is failing to rally, trading below 83, all while both the Nasdaq and China's Shanghai index rip higher.

    Makes one wonder what is going on for a stock touted to be the next (FB)
    Mar 24, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Mistakes Made - The Fallacy Of Focusing On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements [View article]
    Hi Bruce;

    You are absolutely right. There will be consequences one day, I must admit I do not know when, or from what level. SPX 2400, 2500? Nasdaq 7000? (that would match the inflation adjusted 2000 highs)

    I believe the bond market will transmit serious problems. For now I am focusing on international - focused longs, where valuations are generally much heathier.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Mistakes Made - The Fallacy Of Focusing On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements [View article]
    Change; to add to the above; thats why it is so difficult to ever respect shows like CNBC Fast Money, and even one or 2 pundits on this site.

    They are intellectually dishonest, because its all about polishing a public persona. They are never wrong, never take a loss, bad positions are forgotten, locked in a drawer, never to be addressed again. Bring it up, all you hear is talk about "process" and their many detractors.

    These people only are fooling themselves in some pitiful game.

    To have a chance at this game, one must fist start with brutal honesty.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mistakes Made -- (Part 2) The Fallacy Of Focus On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements.  [View instapost]
    L;

    Sometimes. It seems far less these days. Copper is down 10 cents from last night. Very erratic trends these days.

    I note the Aussie dollar holding above 79 cents on weak chinese data.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller [View article]
    Asbytec,

    The copper move far outpaced currency inputs, iMO, or any other commodity.
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Mistakes Made - The Fallacy Of Focusing On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements [View article]
    Change,

    I know how to lose money faster than most people I know.

    Cheers.
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Mistakes Made - The Fallacy Of Focusing On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements [View article]
    Ikenn...thanks for your comment. You may well be right, in the fullness of time.

    I'm agnostic with no position in either anymore, and simply focusing on other areas.
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum to launch offerings for 35M shares, $1B in senior notes [View news story]
    Gotta love those takeover rumours now, eh? Sure let someone in the know out ahead of this.
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Mistakes Made - The Fallacy Of Focusing On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements [View article]
    Hello Nate;

    Thanks for your comment.

    Options are something I will examine the next time I look at the short side, of course the one challenge is erosion.

    The best short play I have seen in recent months, GOPRO, was not borrowable at any rate, and the put premiums were incredible for any strike.
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller [View article]
    Readers;

    If ever an article was at least a short term contrarian indicator, and requesting of a mea Culpa; it might be this one -- at least for the moment.

    It appears that the Fed's reluctance to move has been the spark for a developing counter - Dollar rally. In the last few days we are seeing the US talk down their growth, and the ECB talk UP the Euro zone's. That was quick, go figure!

    While Oil and the Euro haven't moved that much -- 4 cents and change for the Euro -- there has been a stunning 2 day move in copper -- now over 30 cents, 12% off of thursday's low, on no news I have yet seen.

    I have positioned in a couple of metal stocks, which are deeply out of favour to say the least, for this move. Needless to say it appears at least a consolidation phase might be in order for the dollar.
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mistakes Made -- (Part 2) The Fallacy Of Focus On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements.  [View instapost]
    Monster, monster 2 day move in copper. I've added to new (TCK) buy, also (EWZ) and (VALE), Aussie dollar.

    I find when there is an explosive move in a commodity like this, late in the day, and without an overt reason, there is a good reason -- and it will carry into tommorrow's stock movement.
    Mar 23, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought Svenska Handelsbanken For Diversification, Dividend Income And A Currency Play On A Potential Recovery Of The Swedish Krona [View article]
    SG;

    Copper is starting to rip here.

    If you are interested in a foreign currency oriented play there may I suggest Teck Resources. (TCK - NYSE or TCK.B -- TSE)
    Mar 23, 2015. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mistakes Made -- (Part 2) The Fallacy Of Focus On The Wrong Inputs To Drive Intermediate Term Market Movements.  [View instapost]
    SG;

    No doubt in my mind the consumer is on stronger footing.

    Whats interesting is every one of my recent "shorts" continue lower -- (MU) (BABA) (CLR) (WLL) ect....but their distraction potential overloads any positive contribution to positive P&L they make.

    I am working hard at moving beyond picking a trade here and there towards investing with an overall thesis and strategy. Some picks may remain for a short to intermediate term, but I want a majority to be intermediate to long term decisions

    Going with this I have just bought a small position in (EWZ) -- Brazil as a deeply contrarian pick. I think things are coming to a head there with the government and millions protesting. Certainly its out of favour to say the least.
    Mar 23, 2015. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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