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Robert Duval  

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  • Market Update: Watching CPI, The Fed, TLT.  [View instapost]
    Morning update -- May 26th.

    Well with the SPX - 18 and again transports leading the way lower as oil and energy also sell off, those genius Macro tourists stating the Transport weakness is all about the oil rebound really look smart, don't they?

    IN any event I am much more bullish on inflation oriented assets and bearish on US long term bonds than I am broadly bearish on stocks. I am a bull on the US economy at this time led by housing , and that will be a positive for awhile if allocated to the correct sectors (which most people aren't)

    Bearing that in mind I covered my CMG short and half of the GRUB short listed above, and sold some of my QQQ puts with the Nasdaq down 50, for simple small profits.

    On the core long side I've added to a spec position that is already a winner, (IVN.TO), Ivanhoe Mines, on their announcement of a Chinese partner for their Congo Copper mine project. This gives the project and the stock both funding and Huge credibility, and both IVN and the Chinese are looking ahead to copper shortages forecast for 2017.

    My other big mining play (TRQ) will also be a beneficiary of this and this stock has massive upside on any return to a commodity / metals bull market.

    It is definitely a time to add exposure to growth and inflation oriented stocks like this while they are cheap and unloved, and get out of the crowded yield plays.

    I love the anti- yield energy stocks like (PBR) and (SDRL) here and added a bit more on this mornings sell off.
    May 26, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Are Clearly Flashing Yellow [View article]
    Peter;

    The economy is not the stock market, and those who confuse the 2 animals regularly lose their money.

    This focus on the economy is an academic waste of time usually pursued by macro economic tourists. Last I looked we don't directly invest in jobless claims, GDP etc.

    Hint I am a bull on the US economy. For the rest of my thoughts see my blog.
    May 26, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Many Ponzi-Like MLP Blow-Ups To Follow [View article]
    James, I've been extremely cautious on this name for many, many months and taken a ton of rude flack on SA for it, and so I am not remotely surprised at the action, and the fact they have to launch a secondary. I have also tried repeatedly to short the stock, (months back) but could not borrow it --

    Apparently the fact the stock moving from 40 to 11 means nothing to the Bulls who are "right" and the Bears on this name "wrong naysayers". Right, OK. Stock is entrenched in a bear market -- that's what it is -- and I highly doubt we've seen the lows.

    I didn't, and don't, trust the accounting, their balance sheet, and most of all, management. This move down is likely not an overreaction, for these reasons, and I expect Line to likely move lower as their financial position weakens, even if oil rallies a little.

    Good luck. Line is showing their situation clearly. Be loyal to your family, or your pet, not this disaster of a stock. No position in Line or Lnco.

    To remaining Bulls -- I'd love to short your stock. Put it out there to be borrowed. We haven't seen the lows on LINE.
    May 25, 2015. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Doc,

    The fact you are playing UVXY at all from the buy side tells me volumes about your trading.
    May 24, 2015. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Ken,

    Where do you see value these days then?
    May 24, 2015. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Well.....I look at a lot of markets. Fascinating how Brazil was a rock star with EWZ at 90.

    2/3 lower, everyone hates it.

    Many sector examples, too. Everyone loves biotech now. Don't recall seeing that 3 years ago.

    It's all performance chasing by the vast, vast majority of fund managers.
    May 24, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Yes....but not linked in perfect harmony.

    I just wrote a new post. In the intermediate term, does the US stock market want more,

    A( zero rates)

    B) (robust growth)

    In other words -- if 10 year rates return to 2% spread over inflation -- 4% that is --- how does the stock market respond?

    And "stock market" is pretty generic. As an example, to make my point, Over the next 5 years, which asset class is likely to give a greater % return .....2 choices ----

    (IBB) biotech, (Wonderful fundamental news)

    Or (EWZ) Brazil? (Terrible fundamental news)

    (No position in either)

    As I've written I consider asset allocation a far more important conversation than predicting the next correction.

    I have a theory that most who repeatedly proclaim terms like "secular bull" (of course in hindsight) and how right they have been (in hindsight) have a rather harder time telling us which sectors to invest in.

    No so easy to indentify the next secular bull.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 24, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel,

    The stock market and the economy are 2 different animals.
    May 24, 2015. 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel,

    In my example I assess the odds of X happening as much greater than random, however I can't give a timeline.
    May 23, 2015. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel,

    My take is slightly different, in that in my article I kind of see an X - Y happening.

    This would be -- if 10 year real rates rise to the historical level over inflation, this will trigger a rate based correction.
    May 23, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Are Clearly Flashing Yellow [View article]
    The real irrationality is in bonds. Who are the investors lending money all over the place at negative real yields? How many understand what "real yield" even is?
    May 22, 2015. 08:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid - May Market Update, And The Uselessness Of Grand Predictions [View instapost]
    Tack,

    Apparently you didn't read the link.

    Sales of long bonds are running 5 fold from this period last year.

    I made no predictions on rates, either, except to quote the historical spread over inflation.

    Now if you think a 2% 10 year is a great deal with a rising CPI, be my guest.
    May 22, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel, James, up or down then next week? Higher or lower by end of June ----

    And why -------
    May 22, 2015. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid - May Market Update, And The Uselessness Of Grand Predictions [View instapost]
    Oil has stalled. Trannies haven't rebounded (yet).

    Core CPI 1.8% Y/Y. (Higher M/M).

    10 year yield....2.2%. 40 points real yield. Historical is 200 bps, so we should have a 4% 10 year and 5-6% 30 year.

    And the arguement is this change won't affect stock valuations whatsoever?

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Corporations selling like mad, long bonds:
    May 22, 2015. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CPI inches up 0.1% in April [View news story]
    ....and 10 year yield 2.21%. That's 40 bps of real yield.

    Sound good to you? (Historical is 200bps)
    May 22, 2015. 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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