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Robert Duval  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk To U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The case for some allocation to inflation, late cycle asset classes:
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia, Gold, Oil, And Interest Rate Extremes [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Russia, Oil, Gold, copper, inflation:
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fink Speaks The Truth [View article]
    George, here is the article, quite a bit more background:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    SG,

    The article, with more background added:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade - Is It Time To Prepare? [View article]
    Readers, enjoy my latest thoughts. I also periodically maintain an instablog focusing on active open positions, updated every day or 2 at the outside. Comments are welcome at either locale.

    -------

    From Todays Barrons: Quote from Barron's

    Shelley Bergman, #7 Ranked financial advisor in the U.S., 6 billion under management.

    "Right now, he likes the BRICs -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- as well as copper and iron-ore stocks. “The things that have been out of favor the past couple of years are now going to be big winners,” he predicts. “In two years, you’re going to give me hugs and kisses.”

    In the interim, though, there may be considerable volatility, he warns. “A lot of people are not willing to take that kind chance,” he says. “But we are.”

    Bergman believes the U.S. bull market -- which he has called the greatest in his lifetime -- is now in its seventh or eighth inning. He predicts a “long nine innings” for the rally, but emphasizes that investors must be increasingly selective."


    I have exposure to Brazil (PBR) India, and Russia through (MBT), as well as (new) Columbia (GXG).
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    SG,

    One possible hedge to a stock portfolio may be less of perhaps index option protection, but long dated puts on (TLT). I have put some of these on, Jan 2016 puts.

    I don't know TIPS very well.

    There are various ways one may examine adding inflation protection to a portfolio, as my article (pending publication ) states, certainly my picks are higher volatility choices and not for everyone.

    Other choices would be a basket of blue chip commodity stocks or ETF's, slightly higher gold allocation, or broad commodity ETN.
    Apr 19, 2015. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Quality thoughts. Inflation protection is very, very cheap. Why not put some on?
    Apr 19, 2015. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade -- Is Is Time To Prepare?  [View instapost]
    Quote from Barrons
    Shelley Bergman, #7 FA in the U.S., 6 billion under management. (I like a lot of the same stocks classes!)

    "Right now, he likes the BRICs -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- as well as copper and iron-ore stocks. “The things that have been out of favor the past couple of years are now going to be big winners,” he predicts. “In two years, you’re going to give me hugs and kisses.”

    In the interim, though, there may be considerable volatility, he warns. “A lot of people are not willing to take that kind chance,” he says. “But we are.”

    Bergman believes the U.S. bull market -- which he has called the greatest in his lifetime -- is now in its seventh or eighth inning. He predicts a “long nine innings” for the rally, but emphasizes that investors must be increasingly selective."
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk To U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks Jeff.

    I think housing, housing, is the developing story here. I believe the untold story revolves around the plummeting DSR ratios (thanks SG), household formation, and safety preference that has had so many renting. We could see a pent up demand for single family homes as wage hikes start to percolate.

    Sleeper stock here.....FNMA....starting to move.......(long preferreds).

    I'm less and less even caring about the stock market --- it's a market of stocks -- as my methodology continues to mature. I yawned at friday. We are in a range.

    I try very hard to hunt for "uncorrelated" asset classes.

    Watch inflation type assets....like FCX, RSX, etc....perking up.

    http://bit.ly/1GXCFqb
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Around The World Shopping Spree [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/1GXCFqb

    Chris, all three are "distressed assets" that go to my post above on allocation to inflation assets. MBT and PBR have lots of colourful stories. (PBR more so)

    MBT is Russia / Ukraines premier mobile company, but one of the principals awhile back was put under house arrest. Very cheap, and the assumption is they aren't going anywhere. Mobile keeps growing there.

    PBR -- the corruption scandal is well documented. However China is extending them credit, on this and the oil price recovery, the stock has taken off. IF -- a large IF -- there was political change (I believe Dimla R.'s disapproval rating is 80%!) -- Brazil stocks are cheap.

    ....as are Columbias. Columbia has a lot of mining, copper seems to be firming, and the country is much more stable and well run than in the past. Just out of favor like much of EM.

    Ps, I know Urbana, and the fellow who runs it, actually
    Apr 18, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Around The World Shopping Spree [View instapost]
    Chris,

    Thoughts on Columbia (GXG). Russia's (MBT), and Petrobas (PBR)?

    Thanks
    Apr 18, 2015. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba strikes car sales deal with GM's Chinese unit [View news story]
    Although I am no longer short (as I am not pursuing individual shorts in a free money environment) I am not a fan of BABA and expect it will likely take out $80.

    Reasons, 1. I don't trust Chinese accounting, plain and simple.
    2. Under their structure, legally US investors, own absolutely nothing. Look it up.
    3. Loads of stock coming to market.
    4. Government issues in China.
    Apr 18, 2015. 03:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'End Game' - My Take On Indicators Leading To The End Of The U.S. Bull Market [View article]
    Gel....boy for futures....not that I can think of. I have struggled in futures in recent years, as computer algo programs have removed the short term trades. Hence I might use them only to express a view that could be done with ETF's instead, like bond futures. Can be used to hedge stocks (like shorting s&ps).

    Lots of good stuff on mechanics on the Internet.
    Apr 18, 2015. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of The Inflation Trade -- Is Is Time To Prepare?  [View instapost]
    An open letter to my readers and followers:

    Recently during some of my postings I made the mistake of referencing my performance during an exchange with another contributor about market strategy.

    Regardless of the tone of other posters comments towards me or my strategy, posting performance numbers, (which were accurate) on a free idea share site like SA has no purpose other than to incite competitive issues and a serious degradation of the debate, which it did in this case --- so I regret doing so, and have pulled the appropriate comments some time ago.

    Fwiw, for those aware of this, it's important to note I am neither soliciting for money to manage here, nor for any paid newsletter. My writings are a form of journalling and an exchange of ideas with other posters, a few of which have helped me a lot -- thank you!

    I'm having a good year, and last year, as I gradually learn to be patient and accept this business cycle is not likely over, it's just very slow.

    FWIW,
    I've had horrible years, too, not so long ago, as it's taken me years to transition from a futures day trader to an intermediate stock investor. I'm a slow learner, but I'm getting there.

    As I gradually learn and develop my methodology, I hope to share and contribute back, here on this forum, as others have contributed to my thinking.

    Thanks again for your support, and my apologies for the distraction this has created.
    Apr 18, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'End Game' - My Take On Indicators Leading To The End Of The U.S. Bull Market [View article]
    An open letter to my readers and followers:

    Recently during some of my postings I made the mistake of referencing my performance during an exchange with another contributor about market strategy.

    Regardless of the tone of other posters comments towards me or my strategy, posting performance numbers, (which were accurate) on a free idea share site like SA has no purpose other than to incite competitive issues and a serious degradation of the debate, which it did in this case --- so I regret doing so, and have pulled the appropriate comments some time ago.

    Fwiw, for those aware of this, it's important to note I am neither soliciting for money to manage here, nor for any paid newsletter. My writings are a form of journalling and an exchange of ideas with other posters, a few of which have helped me a lot -- thank you!

    I'm having a good year, and last year, as I gradually learn to be patient and accept this business cycle is not likely over, it's just very slow.

    FWIW,
    I've had horrible years, too, not so long ago, as it's taken me years to transition from a futures day trader to an intermediate stock investor. I'm a slow learner, but I'm getting there.

    As I gradually learn and develop my methodology, I hope to share and contribute back, here on this forum, as others have contributed to my thinking.

    Thanks again for your support, and my apologies for the distraction.
    Apr 18, 2015. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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