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Robert Duval  

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  • The Stock Market Speaks - We Learn Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria' [View article]
    Hmm, Tony. Referring to this statement:

    "Guessing oil hitting the bottom, I bought OIL 2 times several days ago and it is up over 20%. Two days ago, RSI told me the market was far oversold, I bought 4 value stocks and they ranged from 2% to 10% return in 2 days. Sold one as I believe the market is still risky."

    I'm simoly curious, as you write a lot of similiar comments, followed by a recommendation to your own book, what these contribute to the SA community. No thesis, no specifics, only a reference to a book.

    If the books are so irrelevant to you, why push them with every comment?

    Any proof about your oil trades you can post right here, or in an instapost. I didn't ask for that. Why no comment about oil whatsoever anywhere until well after a large price run-up?

    I'm just curious.
    Aug 29, 2015. 04:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not A Game The Federal Reserve Wants [View article]
    Couldn't agree more with this article.

    The Fed needs to wean markets off it's dependence, express confidence in the economic trajectory, and say it will raise when economic benchmarks are met.

    Period.

    Then shut up.
    Aug 29, 2015. 02:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bailing Out Of Brazil [View article]
    Tack / Bret,

    If Brazil doesn't go the Argentina / venezula route, at some point it's a compelling buy -- with a new govt.
    Aug 29, 2015. 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After A Tumultuous August, What Will September Bring? [View article]
    Bret, I agree with and support the approach taken in the article (although I did buy the dip myself)

    Here are my thoughts from my own posting ahead of my next article:

    Folks, brief preview of the article update.

    I'm a bit worn out as this all happened on my vacation at a cabin where I was to rest after a hectic year to date. So much for that.

    I have mixed feelings, being rather self - critical, about my performance. I've traded this year very well on stocks but poorly on futures, especially this period where I took a good loss. Fortunately stocks are a much larger weighting.

    I haven't had time to think about the future market outlook too much, as I just reacted tactically to the panic -- that's what that was -- and I always buy panics.

    Now I'm not sure any of my 4 horseman risks have been resolved, so it will be important to monitor all of them going forward. Ie if the SPX rallies, and possibly to new ATH's as per post 1998 asian financial crisis -- my current base case ---, other markets must also perform and recover in line, to have confidence.

    Those would include, without any one being a certain tell:

    Small caps / breadth,
    Transports,
    Financials,
    Energy -- at least stable, and energy bonds,
    China's market and currency -- stable,
    Junk and corporate bonds,
    Treasuries -- stable, even if with lower prices.
    Lower volatility.

    Further agressive devaluations, debt defaults, any trade actions, are not a positive.

    So I am cautiously constructive here, but a bit wary in certain respects. Problems may appear in the fall or 2 years from now. I admit what I don't know. Well behaved rates are critical for stability.

    I lean towards a 1998 shock until proven otherwise.

    As the market rallies I will resume shorting what I consider overvalued or broken business model stocks, stocks I have shorted before, to bring my total exposure down.

    It may be that this cycle ends with a massive inflationary spike into commodities. I don't know, but would advise every investor to have some inflation protection in this way, and even in gold to a very minor degree. These assets are cheap in any regard.

    I urge investors to re -raise cash to a 20% level as we rally, as well, and control exposure to high PE stocks.
    Aug 29, 2015. 01:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Chewy,

    Yes, but it might be all over already, for all I know. Things are faster these days.
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Did You Freak This Week? [View article]
    RS followers -- my perspective.

    Folks, brief preview of my article update I wrote regarding correction risks. I'm away but will put together this article early in the coming week

    I have mixed feelings, being rather self - critical, about my performance. I've traded this year very well on stocks but poorly on futures, especially this period where I took a good loss. Fortunately stocks are a much larger weighting.

    I haven't had time to think about the future market outlook too much, as I just reacted tactically to the panic -- that's what that was -- and I always buy panics.

    Now I'm not sure any of my 4 horseman risks ( in my article) have been resolved, so it will be important to monitor all of them going forward. Ie if the SPX rallies, and possibly to new ATH's as per post 1998 asian financial crisis -- my current base case ---, other markets must also perform and recover in line, to have confidence.

    Those would include, without any one being a certain tell:

    Small caps / breadth,
    Transports,
    Financials,
    Energy -- at least stable, and energy bonds,
    China's market and currency -- stable,
    Junk and corporate bonds,
    Treasuries -- stable, even if with lower prices.
    Lower volatility.

    Further agressive devaluations, debt defaults, any trade actions, are not a positive.

    So I am cautiously constructive here, but a bit wary in certain respects. Problems may appear in the fall or 2 years from now. I admit what I don't know. Well behaved rates are critical for stability.

    I lean towards a 1998 style shock until proven otherwise.

    As the market rallies I will resume shorting what I consider overvalued or broken business model stocks, stocks I have shorted before, to bring my total exposure down.

    It may be that this cycle ends with a massive inflationary spike into commodities. I don't know, but would advise every investor to have some inflation protection in this way, and even in gold to a very minor degree. These assets are cheap in any regard.

    I urge investors to re -raise cash to a 20% level as we rally, as well, and control exposure to high PE stocks.
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Folks, brief preview of the article update.

    I'm a bit worn out as this all happened on my vacation at a cabin where I was to rest after a hectic year to date. So much for that.

    I have mixed feelings, being rather self - critical, about my performance. I've traded this year very well on stocks but poorly on futures, especially this period where I took a good loss. Fortunately stocks are a much larger weighting.

    I haven't had time to think about the future market outlook too much, as I just reacted tactically to the panic -- that's what that was -- and I always buy panics.

    Now I'm not sure any of my 4 horseman risks have been resolved, so it will be important to monitor all of them going forward. Ie if the SPX rallies, and possibly to new ATH's as per post 1998 asian financial crisis -- my current base case ---, other markets must also perform and recover in line, to have confidence.

    Those would include, without any one being a certain tell:

    Small caps / breadth,
    Transports,
    Financials,
    Energy -- at least stable, and energy bonds,
    China's market and currency -- stable,
    Junk and corporate bonds,
    Treasuries -- stable, even if with lower prices.
    Lower volatility.

    Further agressive devaluations, debt defaults, any trade actions, are not a positive.

    So I am cautiously constructive here, but a bit wary in certain respects. Problems may appear in the fall or 2 years from now. I admit what I don't know. Well behaved rates are critical for stability.

    I lean towards a 1998 shock until proven otherwise.

    As the market rallies I will resume shorting what I consider overvalued or broken business model stocks, stocks I have shorted before, to bring my total exposure down.

    It may be that this cycle ends with a massive inflationary spike into commodities. I don't know, but would advise every investor to have some inflation protection in this way, and even in gold to a very minor degree. These assets are cheap in any regard.

    I urge investors to re -raise cash to a 20% level as we rally, as well, and control exposure to high PE stocks.
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Speaks - We Learn Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria' [View article]
    Tony,

    I may not speak for everyone here but I'm not shy about questioning your repeated after the fact claims, followed by promoting your book, shamelessly.

    I see your comments on being in cash prior and buying stocks on the 26th -- fine.

    This oil buying comment when there is no comment from you prior, and even any comment back to the 21rst, and now claiming an after the fact 20% gain is over the top, IMO.

    We all have gains and losses but a real time transparent approach is crucial for this SA community, and the shameless self promoting I am reading on this site degrades this free community.

    I'd like to see a real time comment backing up this oil purchase.

    I comment this way, win lose or draw, in real time or as close as possible.

    FGT if this comment offends please let me know I will remove it.
    Aug 29, 2015. 11:40 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Readers, I've been away and am overdue to write a follow up article.

    As I've commented I bought the dip, but to be honest I'm not sure if that's the big reset and then we shoot to new ATH's, the 1998 analogy which is my base case, or this is part of a larger structure and topping process for US markets.

    Big divergences but this is a panic reset and risk, for now, has been reduced. Oil is a big help if it rallies, as is EM which is historically oversold and despised.

    It will take time to determine all this. How the SPX handles itself above 2050 -2100, and sub - indicies, will be telling. I lean towards ATH's from here, at least on a narrow basis, as FM's chase into year end.

    Barring any more trade or currency issues, that is. Must monitor EM, China.

    Debt is now on government balance sheets. I would be more seriously concerned across the board if and when bonds start to sell off, and don't stop, indicating a loss of confidence. I'd be watching them, worldwide. Credit leads.

    That is not the case yet so we take it all week by week.
    Aug 29, 2015. 11:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Speaks - We Learn Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria' [View article]
    FGT,

    Good, balanced summary.

    As I've commented I bought the dip, but to be honest I'm not sure if that's the big reset and then we shoot to new ATH's, the 1998 analogy which is my base case, or this is part of a larger structure and topping process for US markets.

    I will differ on sentiment, going in to this event, without a big discussion, my work showed us to be quite complacent and crowded on the US side while money was flowing out of EM and other markets.

    Big divergences but this is a reset and risk, for now, has been reduced. Oil is a big help if it rallies, as is EM which is historically oversold and despised.

    It will take time to determine all this, as you write. How the SPX handles itself above 2050 -2100, and sub - indicies, will be telling. I lean towards ATH's from here, at least on a narrow basis, as FM's chase into year end.

    Barring any more trade or currency issues, that is.

    Debt is now on government balance sheets. I would be more seriously concerned across the board if and when bonds start to sell off, and don't stop, indicating a loss of confidence. I'd be watching them, worldwide. Credit leads.

    That is not the case yet so we take it all week by week.
    Aug 29, 2015. 09:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Did You Freak This Week? [View article]
    I was detached and calm on Monday. I'm a pilot and it was similar to handling a difficult flight situation. (Usually weather).

    Just analyse and execute. I have seen it before though, that helps.
    Aug 29, 2015. 09:13 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Babies And Bathwater [View article]
    Chris,

    Your work is very interesting. It is a goal of mine to get involved with your work and value discovery methods. This year has been an extremely busy trading year but I haven't forgotten you.

    PS, this selloff, which did certainly surprise me with its speed (although I'm on record as looking for a correction), certainly had lots of fear, and some dumping as well. Monday was about as panicky as I can ever recall for an open.

    Just my $0.02 but a 55 Vix doesn't appear every day. I am now proudly long XIV and think it's a very favourable entry here, with some patience.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Did You Freak This Week? [View article]
    Hmmm, War stories. Here's this Trader's, (slowly morphing into an investor. Like a catapiller changes to a butterfly)

    Last Tuesday: heading out to a nice cabin after a hectic active trading summer. Closed a few shorts, initiated small positions in EM that Monday / Tuesday, had a few small energy longs too, and a few remaining shorts. 25% long at most.

    Thursday, as we started to sell off, ( I had no idea it would get this bad, btw) covered some shorts, bought more energy. Bought index futures. 50% long, I think.

    Friday, don't get out of the index futures when I should, Friday afternoon I cover almost last of shorts, buy more value, start to buy APPL RDS DIS. 75% long +

    Monday morning. Thought China would have cut RR on weekend. Big oops. Nuked on index futures, get out later on bounce, big loss.

    While dealing with that, put in orders to buy at open , more AAPL, DIS, RDS, then FB GOOG PANW BLUE GILD, few others, cover last dregs of shorts. Keep all day and Tuesday, sweating a bit as they pushed it back down Tuesday. 130% long.

    Wednesday - Thursday, trim some high beta stuff I bought, short 2 airlines, brings me back to about 105% long. Still there.

    Today sell calls on part of FB APPL GILD GOOG.

    Energy and materials names starting to move, that helps. All in all very nice period on stocks, made money and have some great cost bases, lost on futures as vol was too high from the cabin. Bit dumb trading there.

    Ps. I doubt we see a full retest. Too much panic at the lows and now too many are looking for a second decline. They got blown out and assuming no credit blowups they will have to chase higher. Just my $0.02.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets Bottom! [View article]
    Totally agree.

    I've very recently -- a little just before, most right around the mini crash here -- initiated long term positions in EWZ, THD, EPHE, VNM, several materials and energy names. At least half, if not more, of my total exposure.
    Aug 28, 2015. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have We Seen The Emotional Low In EM Stocks? [View article]
    Agree.

    Based on the same conclusions I've initiated positions in VNM EPHE THD EWZ, along with numerous materials and energy names.
    Aug 28, 2015. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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