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Robert Duval

 
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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #41 [View instapost]
    T,

    On whatever metric you want to use, the rally is narrowing.

    Advance / decline, new highs / lows, small caps weak again, back down on year. Retail -- fair number of names -- energy, weak. Cat weak today, weak sales. Banks gave back some. Housing -- weak. Who is leading?

    Semis, healthcare, staples, and 3 or 4 mega Nasdaq stocks -- aapl, FB, TWTR, Gild -- seem to be holding us up.

    For me, I think FB and AAPL are key indictors --- unless they go up every single day through year end ---

    We shall see ----
    Sep 19 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Builder Confidence Correlates With Housing Market Tops [View article]
    That's fair, but if one subscribes to the thesis that stock movements lead the news flow, you have to wonder.....

    Very, very little, I would argue, is undervalued in this market, without good reasons ---
    Sep 19 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1BVnpo9

    Another perspective -- and fwiw, when a man as esteemed as Seth Klarman states repeatedly calls this 2007 redux, with the associated risks, that's good enough for me.
    Sep 19 08:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    5 year rates just broke through the 2011 highs, regardless of ZIRP.

    Just because the Fed anchors rates at zero, has little influence on what 5 year rates investors will accept.
    Sep 19 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    I disagree fundamentally, that liquidity preference WILL decline, for demographic reasons.

    Those who do have cash, who are in the minority, are not inclined to spend it. I do not see a catalyst to change this, as it's little to do with confidence, but demographics.
    Sep 19 08:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    IMO, the ultimate bubble is already in place, and it's theme is the bubble of the central banks to create economic growth.

    One day -- it is possible investors in Japan and Europe in particular, will wake up to the powerlessness of their central banks.
    Sep 19 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    Yes, correct and an ipo bubble is fully engaged now. ---
    Sep 19 07:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    100% agree.

    The op's assertions that Buybacks have not had a substantial impact on earnings per share, and that there has not been any meaningful borrowing to support such Buybacks, are not supported by the facts and contradict numerous articles detailing this relationship.
    Sep 19 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    There are certainly pockets of price insensitive behaviour, aka mobileye, go pro, arguably alibaba -- investors piling in to investments they fully don't understand.
    Sep 19 07:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Builder Confidence Correlates With Housing Market Tops [View article]
    OF & II,

    Just curious as you guys seem to always take the bull side, if either of you are long homebuilders, if not, why not?

    Cause judging by the charts, it's been a horrible trade to be long these things. Worse than anything other than coal and gold minors.

    They sucked again, the last 2 days. Whats the issue if DK is wrong?
    Sep 19 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The VIX Fear Index Telling Us Now? [View article]
    Chris,

    Would appreciate an article discussing the IWM weakness, plus weak breadth and high / lows.

    Divergences really are out there.
    Sep 19 05:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs estimates Tesla Motors needs $6B to stay on growth track [View news story]
    Anyone notice oil prices? Something to watch, ICE vs electric..
    Sep 19 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reduce Your Allocation To Small Cap U.S. Stock ETFs [View article]
    Based on today and lately; I'd reword the title; "get out of small caps, now". Regards --
    Sep 19 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #41 [View instapost]
    Nasdaq only now down 2, while (IWM) down $1.40; or 1.2% Very weak breadth. Amazing how the nasdaq buyers keep coming back. Thinking the Nasdaq strength is mostly FB, AAPL, GILD.
    Sep 19 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #41 [View instapost]
    T;

    The divergences I have observed have made it very difficult for me to hold conviction.
    Sep 19 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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