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Robert Duval  

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  • My Bet On Seeking Alpha's Future [View article]
    Best wishes David and Eli as well.

    RD
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    For a trade of a different sort I am starting to put on a modest long CHF (swiss franc) / Short Euro trade. (At about 1.04)

    The SNB has heavily intervened to support the Euro against the Franc and I believe as in Jan, this intervention will fail again, as the SNB accumulates ever increasing Euro reserves.

    The lower the Euro / USD goes I will increase the size of this trade. If another crisis ever shows the CHF is the one ultimate flight to quality currency, and that hasn't changed.

    In the end market forces are far bigger than central banks, a lesson worth keeping in mind when evaluating other CB actions over the scope of a very long period of time.
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: Rosenose [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    To be completely transparent, -- here is my perspective today on this general subject --- FWIW:

    It's often been said what what has no cost is given no value by the receiver, and based on my experience and feedback in publishing a number of articles and posts with the sincere intention to add alpha or protect investors from loss, I'd have to agree.

    Personally, as I've recently outlined the results in -- one live, continuously update trading blog linked above, (that some followers asked me to start) I'm asking myself lately why I am offering quality tactical recommendations for free, when as a short to intermediate term trader with a tactical short focus when warranted -- a focus that has certainly worked for me and I would think would be of some value to SA readers --- the feedback has often been not intelligent discourse, but something far more negative -- like simply expressing being cautious on a particular sector or at a particular point in time came with some manipulative agenda, instead of an alternative point of view.

    This sort of discourse provides no value in return to me. I find some far too emotional about their favourite stocks, to their detriment, and efforts to encourage taking cold sober second looks are mocked and ridiculed with agenda laden innuendo.

    Therefore I am re-assessing providing specific content for "free", as I have no need to do so. My strong belief is a paid community would be far more supportive and engage at a higher level of discourse, which is far, far more valuable than any money received.

    Regards all, and best wishes.
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alexis Tsipras's Critical Miscalculation - It Serves Stocks This Week [View article]
    Don't think Greece is the major issue by any means out there, certainly doesn't even enter my thinking. Other things are far more important, that being said I'm expecting a big pop on any deal. (and I'm net short US stocks)

    Just don't think it matters that much to any lasting degree, except for Gold, which I'm short and looking for a major breakdown.

    If there was a lot of fear, we'd see it in the Euro Periphery bonds, and we aren't.

    I also expect a resolution to be actually bearish for the Euro, and I can't see how that benefits America.
    Jul 4, 2015. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Remains A 'Sell' After Rising Imports Fuel Surprise Inventory Build [View article]
    Fred;

    Oil traded to 55.60 yesterday, during the peak summer driving season, and without Iranian oil back on the market -- something I see as close to a near term certainty. (a deal with Iran) The US needs this deal with Iran to enhance stability in the region. It will happen.

    Imagine fall pricing with Iranian oil. 45 - 50 Is easy for me to see, as its in everyone's best interest's, including US shale; to pump all they can to survive. Note this week's rig counts went UP. 40 would be an overshoot, I admit, but overshoots happen.

    I expect numerous bankruptcies and defaults before this is over -- and not in Saudi. Even large, Debt laden Shale producers like WLL and CLR -- so foolish to remove their hedges -- are in big trouble, IMO, and time is not on their side. Expect share offerings.

    Oil doesn't need to fall, even from mid 50's, for these scenarios to happen. Short WLL, CLR.
    Jul 4, 2015. 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Recent Rout Micron Is A Very Strong Buy [View article]
    With extremely rare exceptions, the more buys on a stock, the less I want it ---

    RD
    Jul 3, 2015. 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Recent Rout Micron Is A Very Strong Buy [View article]
    Tree and others,

    Might find this interesting -- wrote this in March.

    Wall Street isn't your friend, neither is management, iMO.

    Sorry for MU. I've been cautious on it for a long time, and written the same. Still think it goes lower.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 3, 2015. 04:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    Dani;

    I've backed off on the IBB but watching closely it and the junior players. A catalyst would be a big help towards conviction there
    Jul 3, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Remains A 'Sell' After Rising Imports Fuel Surprise Inventory Build [View article]
    Agree with the premise of the article, add Iran into the mix, WTI could shoot to 45 or even 40 in the next year.

    Like the OP I am short crude but also US shale producers, who I see as the losers at the table. As their hedges run off their debt will get squeezed hard, they are already falling in anticipation.
    Jul 3, 2015. 05:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Reason To Hold Gold [View article]
    I am short gold here, and can easily see a sub 1100 price. A breakdown is brewing here for gold.
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]
    For those interested here is the trader perspective with a current short focus anticipating some corrective activity with trades posted and updated in Real Time.

    Prices are updated as of todays close, most (short) positions were initiated and the blog posted June 10-16th, and changes made along the way as required. Losing and closed positions shown as well. Comments welcome. There is also a smaller sized long portfolio. Happy 4th!

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences- A Rare Undervalued Company In A Frothy Biotech Market [View article]
    For those interested here is the trader perspective with a current short focus anticipating some corrective activity with trades posted and updated in Real Time. Prices are updated as of todays close, most (short) positions were initiated and the blog posted June 10-16th, and changes made along the way as required. Losing and closed positions shown as well. Comments welcome. There is also a smaller sized long portfolio. Happy 4th.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    Readers; due to several requests from followers interested in my trade methodology, I have created this blog showing real time trade entries and exits, long and short, position and risk management.

    On this blog one can see clearly, especially for those following from its creation date, exactly that. The results I would hope speak for themselves.

    What you will not find on this blog (but strategy and thought process is apparent if you read my articles) Is any kind of detailed thought process on each short position in real time.

    Frankly, and I'm completely honest, I'm unwilling to share the results of 12-14 hour days, hard work, thought, experience and research, completely for free.

    I am considering a paid service attached to Seeking Alpha in which live trades along with the thinking and methodology would be offered, targeting an active trader group.

    I've been at the game full time for close to 17 years trading not only stocks but index, bond and commodity futures, which gives me an extremely correlated and broad experience base to put the puzzle pieces together.

    I make loads of mistakes but am seeing consistent results strong enough to consider offering a service. I wouldn't offer it otherwise.

    If this is of interest, advise here or PM me.
    Jul 2, 2015. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Way To Judge Past Performance: Part 2 [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    For those interested here is the trader perspective with a current short focus anticipating some corrective activity with trades posted and updated in Real Time. Prices are updated as of todays close, most (short) positions were initiated and the blog posted June 10-16th, and changes made along the way as required. Losing and closed positions shown as well. Comments welcome. There is also a smaller sized long portfolio. Happy 4th.
    Jul 2, 2015. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]
    Tack, perhaps the partying has been a lot focused on private equity, therefore less visable --- UBER AIRbnb ect......
    Jul 2, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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