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Robert Duval  

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  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    I continued to incrementally cover energy /semi shorts and modestly go long energy. Very negative and washed out

    It's a market where I as a trader can go short, but not stay short. Looking for a big bounce in energy. Saw signs of bottoming action today.

    Stay tuned......
    Jul 23, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Concerns About The Transports Are Overblown [View article]
    Eric,

    Good article but I find these days there is far, far too much emphasis on "will the transports take the market down, will junk bonds be the Achilles heel, or small caps". You know -- overall I am more and more agnostic about such things.

    Yes it's academically interesting and I write similar thoughts myself as an exercise, but I find it far more productive, to stop trying to predict the "market" so much and instead focus on "risk management" of my positions and allocations to productive sectors, and cutting losses quick.

    I am finding I am observing many readers -- and pundits --- from reading many sources -- suffering though horrible losses on their positions because of an overemphasis on the S&P 500 alone, and a complete ignorance and disregard for individual position risk management.

    It's completely backwards logic to state the market is still a bull, everything is fine, and ignore and not deal with huge losses. We're talking 80% in some cases here.

    Who cares if the SPX is making record highs when that is happening?

    Investors need to focus on what matters.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought Back The Linn Energy 8.625% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing In 2020 [View instapost]
    SG;

    There was some chatter about forced selling (someone blew up) in the sector. That can draw my interest.
    Jul 22, 2015. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    I have flipped from short to Neutral - Long energy from this morning, details on my article / posts
    Jul 22, 2015. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PORTFOLIO TRACKER JULY 22ND [View instapost]
    Tim's I'm offside but that is not a trade, Its locked in the drawer, Bullish on housing.

    Note I've flipped energy today, Neutral to long a little overall
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought Back The Linn Energy 8.625% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing In 2020 [View instapost]
    MEMP is on size volume today. Wonder if a touch of forced selling. Remember these guys have strong hedges through 2017 and well into 2018/19

    I'm only shifted to neutral here.
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    Tack;

    Perhaps a temporary bounce in the slaughter. I don't need to tell you how tough shorting is, when I see a 35-40% short gain in WLL, and well hedged stocks like MEMP are going through the floor, I do need to consider things.

    I'm fully hedged now for the next month, with short August puts, even over hedged considering the long MEMP ect, just feels like today is the day.

    What I find amusing, and others should seriously question, is those longer at much higher prices, exhorting everyone to chase and risk their hard earned money, no risk at all, and on a days like lately when we see horrific losses and folks are down 50% or more on names like MEMP, LINE, WLL, HCLP, even BHI which was a "sure thing no risk" is getting trashed on -- wow there might be a problem with the deal. What a surprise.

    Maybe HAL told the government we want out cause we paid too much. If the government blocks it --- NO breakup fee. Genius.

    And what do we hear today from those luring others into horrible losses?

    Crickets. Run away when it gets tough.
    Jul 22, 2015. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought Back The Linn Energy 8.625% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing In 2020 [View instapost]
    SG this morning I have done a lot of covering / hedging with short puts in PXD, WLL, JOY, CLR -- (already hedged)

    Long well hedged MLP MEMP on panic below 12, HCLP.

    I've seen enough, looks pretty washed out; for now.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    ALERT.

    Energy is getting really washed out here; done a ton of short covering and hedging with short puts, WLL PXD JOY (CLR hedged already) , hedged some semi shorts, long a block of well hedged player #MEMP 11.50, #HCLP at 18.80
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hi-Crush Partners Yields 8.8%, But Is It Due For A Distribution Cut? [View article]
    Uhmmm. -- YES
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10% Correction Feels Imminent [View article]
    Some Bret are fine academically with an SPX correction, but any correction in their own stocks is irrational and shouldn't occur.

    A lot of muppets conditioned to buy every 2% dip are in for a rude shock sooner or later -- evidence points to sooner.
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Is Illusory. Events May Be, Too [View article]
    Gel,

    Please. Most firms are bulling stocks upwards based on 2020 crap estimates. It's a marketing game as we all know.

    I'm a trader and have been a long time. This kind of risk goes with the territory. I'm not about to feel sorry for other traders. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

    Don't blame ratings changes. No sympathy from me whatsoever and sometimes I've been burned. So be it.

    Traders who blame ANYTHING but their own risk management for wins and losses will shortly become ex-traders, cause anything can happen and often will.

    Personally loading up on a momo stock, in front of earnings season this late into a bull market, already on a spike from 220 or whatever to 285, is asking for it, IMO.

    To each his own --
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Going Slightly Deeper Into Swiss Franc Priced Assets: Added To The CEF Swiss Helvetia Fund (SWZ) [View instapost]
    Thanks. 2 Giants become one.

    Gotta like the pricing power going forward.

    Kind of a warren buffet type buiness. Not exactly as easy to compete as setting up a new social media site.
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought Back The Linn Energy 8.625% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing In 2020 [View instapost]
    I'll add SG -- I think with time I might be able to assess the survivors and thrivers that will one day emerge. I think it's hard to tell yet.

    In that light Bonds may be the better avenue to go as you are looking at.
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bought Back The Linn Energy 8.625% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing In 2020 [View instapost]
    SG,

    I agree completely with all of your thoughts, and will switch sides when I sense the time is right.

    If brazils government changes (favourably), I would buy a little PBR in a heartbeat, even some now.

    Barring that -- I have nibbled a little on MEMP due to their hedge book.

    I agree a massive SnapBack may occur but will take time with Iran coming on line presumably as well.

    Fall may be interesting period to slowly nibble perhaps. We will see
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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