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Robert Duval  

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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    Actaully, FG, I look at it differently.

    After that ridiculous statement on their CC about getting to a 700B cap -- have you ever heard anything like that? -- gotta being skating SEC laws -- I'm surprised the stock didn't go back over 220 -- with a Nasdaq meltup to help!

    The reason is institutional investors have to be wondering after their results and that looney toon call.

    They are burning cash. They have plans to invest over a billion more. Where's that coming from?

    No one listens to Cramer anymore. He's a comic act.

    I am so not concerned. Time is on my side, I figure. I have pretty good size on this short.
    Feb 15, 2015. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    No one is denying that. Doesn't make the stock a good investment.

    And it doesn't mean he is entitled to special treatment for his companies.

    It also doesn't mean he should be promoting the stock so hard. Did you hear the last conference call -- to cover up the shortfalls in it he quotes "Tesla will be a 700 billion market cap stock by 2025 -- but this is NOT a forecast".

    Anyone but Musk promoting that hard would be absolutely raked over the coals.

    Another rule. The harder they promote the stock, the more I want to short it.

    The true pros don't promote. They shut up and execute, no excuses.

    "Customer vacations"? (Why they missed delivered car numbers. Please.

    He actually swore on the conference call when answering a question. Hmmmmmm.
    Feb 15, 2015. 08:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    "Against Tesla".

    Sounds like the Tesla Bulls, many of who look at Elon Musk as some combination between George Washington and Justin Beiber. Hero worship.

    Rooting for one company is not investing. This isn't a fan club.

    The country isn't supposed to be picking winners and losers, either, but from this Canuck's opinion, earmarks, bought votes, back room deals, are a major questionable practice down there. Suppose that will never change.

    I've posted here before the more frothy popular a company gets, the more I look at shorting it. It's a core principle.
    Feb 15, 2015. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    E,

    It's brutal public policy. Brutal. And Tesla is looking more and more like a great short.
    Feb 15, 2015. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Tesla Really Worth? [View article]
    Cecil,

    GM, although I hated it on principle, was necessary. If GM had failed, parts system would have failed, then Ford, then more supporting business. Seriously too large.

    GM also -- the government did recover a lot of their money.

    ZEV's -- are poor public policy.
    Feb 15, 2015. 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    Tesla -- and the EV Industry -- are some kind of ZEV tax credit Ponzi scheme. Ridiculous public policy.

    Without the ability to sell the ZEV credits for millions of dollars Tesla wouldn't likely exist.

    In 2014 tesla received revenue -- pure cash right to the bottom line -- of $216 million dollars. To date from California and Nevada alone, these parasites have taken 1.5 billion dollars from taxpayers. Source -- WSJ.

    As a taxpayer this is MY money. I don't support special breaks.

    Corporate welfare at its worst. And don't anyone say Nissan is getting more. I say kill the tax credits for all of them. EV drivers already use the roads for free -- no gas taxes -- that's huge by itself.

    I don't support welfare so a bunch of millionaires can suck off the taxpayer for their supercar ride, under the excuse of very questionable environmentalism. It's disgusting and offensive when that money could be used for schools, hospitals and roads that are falling apart.

    End the subsidies and tax credits now.

    Bulls say it wouldn't matter? Let's find out.

    May not matter. Competition is coming in a hurry. And you know what? Maybe the competition is coming so they won't be forced to buy ZEV Credits from Tesla anymore. With everyone having a plug in to sell in California pretty soon, Tesla won't have buyers for those 200 million in Zev Credits.

    We will see what happens then.

    MY THOUGHTS. SHORT TESLA.
    Feb 15, 2015. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Tesla Really Worth? [View article]
    This whole thread -- comments from Tesla Bulls -- is crap.

    Without the ability to sell the ZEV credits for millions of dollars Tesla wouldn't likely exist.

    In 2014 tesla received revenue -- pure cash right to the bottom line -- of $216 million dollars. To date from California and Nevada alone, these parasites have taken 1.5 billion dollars from taxpayers. I ask WHY?

    As a taxpayer this is MY money. I don't support special breaks.

    Corporate welfare at its worst. And don't anyone say Nissan is getting more. I say kill the tax credits for all of them. EV drivers already use the roads for free -- no gas taxes -- that's huge by itself.

    I don't support welfare so a bunch of millionaires can suck off the taxpayer for their supercar ride, under the excuse of very questionable environmentalism. It's disgusting and offensive when that money could be used for schools, hospitals and roads that are falling apart.


    End the subsidies and tax credits now.

    Bulls say it wouldn't matter? Let's find out.

    May not matter. Competition is coming in a hurry. And you know what? Maybe the competition is coming so they won't be forced to buy ZEV Credits from Tesla anymore. With everyone having a plug in to sell in California pretty soon, Tesla won't have buyers for those 200 million in Zev Credits.

    We will see what happens then.
    Feb 15, 2015. 03:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    http://on.wsj.com/1JiiYuS

    Fannie Mae financials. Solidly profitable and should remain so.
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    Bsf,

    Cutting 40% of ones exposure is something I do, and did over the last couple of days. For someone running that much money, that's notable. He doesn't trade that way. You just can't, running billions upon billions of dollars, just change your mind and jump back into a big Facebook position.

    I've moved the market when I do a 10,000 share order on a smaller stock. I can't imagine trying to dump a million shares! Would take days or weeks.

    However I agree we always make our own calls.

    I do find it amusing on my link all of these small fry are calling him an idiot. Short term thinking.
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    Hmmmm, Tack.

    I'm really only long Fannie mae, which is a special case with what I estimate to be a 5-1 risk reward.

    Either the government liquidates the company and I likely lose half my money, or the government or courts free them from conservator status, which in time means the stock is easily worth 5 fold.

    My other exposure is my blue chip timber co, which is greatly helped by the lower C$.

    Now -- another thought -- a couple of years ago I repeatedly tried to buy coal and copper names on their way down. I lost some money and gave up. The culprit was the massive over investment in supply in Australia and other places from the prior boom in China.

    If -- if -- we are seeing a repeat performance but in oil, we have a long way to go to balance supply and demand.

    It's possible it's just too early to have major conviction longs except in the bonds.

    Oil supplies made new highs this week. The rig reductions are not IMO a reason to buy TODAY, they might be a reason to buy many, many months from now.

    I can see crude dropping back to the low - mid 40's as this is digested and the dollar applies more pressure.
    Feb 15, 2015. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Word Of Caution About New Purchases In The Utility Sector [View instapost]
    FG,

    So what happens to stocks in that instance -- a fast move up in yields?

    Didn't hurt them in 2013 but we are lot higher now than early 2013.
    Feb 15, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    http://on.barrons.com/...’s%20Shroff%20On%205%2...

    India.
    Feb 15, 2015. 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    Tack,

    In my exposure I'm pretty close to a neutral rating, again.

    Most things are expensive! So I like regional banks, housing plays especially Fannie mae and timber, India, Phillipines, and MEMP, but none too large exposure. Added Fairfax. Even India will be a slow slog as Modi is fighting opposition to his growth agenda. So not too too big a position. Worried about China too.

    That stock has a big black swan kicker -- they bought a lot of cheap CDS on deflation. If it happens in the US, they'll clean up. But the core business is great too.

    Substantial cash and Tesla and Box shorts take my net exposure way down. I'm wary oil will turn over again with the euro, so I pared down there.

    What else to buy?? Not much value.

    Tesla short is looking very very good here. Earnings call was a disaster iMO.
    Feb 15, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    http://on.mktw.net/1vw...

    Bringing this up again. Now I don't follow anyone, but when the guy who has been most assertively bullish since the bottom in 2009, has publically declared that without caveats, sells 40% of his exposure in a single quarter, it's worth raising an eyebrow.

    I find it interesting every comment on MW calls him an idiot for missing the latest Apple move -- from amateur investors.

    Now maybe Mr. Tepper has a bigger picture view than missing 10 points on aapl, that's all I'd submit.

    What is indisputable, unless he completely reloaded this quarter, which this big investors don't usually do, is he's having trouble finding good deals at current valuations.

    Again it's just interesting as he's been correctively and assertively bullish the whole way. Now not a public word of caution -- just a 13F Disclosing the sales....hmmmm.
    Feb 15, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Tesla Really Worth? [View article]
    From the WSJ:

    ""Because it produces only electric cars, Tesla receives excess “credits” for complying with federal fuel-efficiency standards and state zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, notably in California. Tesla can then hawk its surplus credits to auto makers that fail to meet the government rules. Last year Tesla made a roughly $150 million killing from selling ZEV credits. That’s up from $130 million in 2013, $32 million in 2012, and $3 million in 2011. All told in 2014 Tesla sold about $216 million in credits, equal to about 7% of its auto sales.

    Those government subsidies come on top of a $7,500 federal tax credit for each electric car sale and state rebates. Nevada and California have also bestowed upward of $1.5 billion in tax breaks on Tesla.""

    Has the world gone insane?
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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