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Robert Duval  

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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #71 [View instapost]
    My latest blog thoughts. Enjoy!

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller.  [View instapost]
    Reader,

    The really big question is how would markets actually react to a really strong economy. I suspect not as well initially as many think after this long in a liquidity driven bull.

    One would think strong credit demand from housing would result in higher rates -- but we have euro QE, so I'm not so sure.

    The market is not the economy, and vis versa.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller.  [View instapost]
    SG,

    The very factor of immigration makes the investment case for the U.S. much better long term than Europe, and partcularly Japan (other than perhaps high quality exporters)
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Wall Street Doesn't Want You To Know: The Foolishness Of Chasing The Most Popular Themes [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Readers, latest post, "mistakes and fallacies".

    Enjoy!
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Readers, current blog "mistakes and fallacies"

    Enjoy and comment!
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller.  [View instapost]
    Reader,

    I am long Norboard (timber) and Fannie Mae as specialty housing situation stocks. I see a lot of pent up demand in housing, and am looking for other plays there. Regional banks perhaps but would like to see a steeper yield curve.
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller.  [View instapost]
    Reader, I agree.

    Perhaps in one view India will be the "new China", as a catalyst for BTU and FCX.

    It is hard to tell and perhaps tommorrow the ocean of liquidity will spike all inflation assets.

    At some point they will be great buys again.
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Thank you Reader. Any relevance offered comes through mistakes and pain of losing money (and hair)

    Sometimes in a world of free liquidity, reason or my version of it gets one nowhere.

    I have had my share of difficulty in embracing today's environment at times.

    Fortunately I cut my losses quickly.

    See my latest instablog or article for commentary on this.( today's commments)
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller.  [View instapost]
    SG,

    To our housing discussion. Suppose it's only a matter of time?

    http://on.wsj.com/1xLJeU0
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller.  [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/1xLIfTI

    This guy is very good and has the story right as far as the markets intermediate focus.
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Reader,

    I agree with your comments, largely.

    Where are you investing in this environment?
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    I am confused too. And perhaps this is the Fed's goal, to keep participants off balance.

    I know one thing -- the next Fed speaker trying to convince me the Fed is anxious to normalize rates, I am sending him to your dental chair. Please have working drill ready.

    I've said this before, then waffled in my own thinking. The Fed, will not raise before being forced by the market. The bond market will lead, and until then its risk on.

    Anticipating corrective activity remains unproductive until proven otherwise, and in some way or another, (TLT , junk, or corporates) bond market will lead.
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller.  [View instapost]
    I'll add to the following for blog followers.

    My shorts included such names as BABA, MU, and several oil names.

    In no way do I see the fundamental risks involving these companies as diminished, and I think they are all highly risky buys for reasons I have commented in detail on.

    However one of the hard lessons I continue to relearn as a trader is just because I see a stock as an overvalued, highly risky purchase, doesn't mean it's a wise short candidate. There is a middle ground and the extraordinary liquidity from the world's central banks means valuing stocks and risk by traditional means for evaluating short candidates is extremely risky, even dangerous and stressful --- and wrong.

    There are those with extraordinarly deep pockets, patience and vision to ride through this period, who may be short various assets today. I realize I do not have those attributes and cannot foresee when this tidal wave of liquidity will end with implications for valuations.

    I expect on balance of probabilities the oil stocks, Micron, and Baba are likely to grind lower, and the dollar higher. I also think, taken as a whole, short positions in all three, (barring a violent collapse in oil / further massive dollar spike) are likely not worth it from a risk / reward / stress point of view.

    I hold a number of core long positions including in countries that greatly benefit from lower oil prices, I would be better served focusing on these ideas instead.

    Thanks all for following!
    Mar 21, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller [View article]
    Thanks for your insightful comments.

    I am finding China difficult to handicap. I am much more bullish on India and other south Asian countries.
    Mar 21, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller [View article]
    Gayle,

    It's a tidal wave of liqudity, to be sure -- thanks.
    Mar 21, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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