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Robert Duval

 
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  • All Aboard! [View article]
    Read the article. Is he calling for a recession?

    And what does it matter -- if only 65% of down periods are related to recessions.

    I keep telling you, we trade markets, not economies. To put it in even simpler terms, and I'm sure Owen will get this, all I trade in essence is risk.

    They are 2 different things, and often move in completely different directions.

    If you had a strategy to wait in any event until a recession was officially declared in any business cycle, you'ed be in the poorhouse.
    Nov 23, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Aboard! [View article]
    Bbro,

    Does it say that? Why don't you simply read what the article says?

    Is a recession required for any 3 month negative return? Is that what you are claiming?
    Nov 23, 2014. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Aboard! [View article]
    Thanks Owen.

    Do you see any Fed impact from the midterm results? I believe -- could have the committee name wrong -- the next senate banking committee (R) chairman is not a fan of QE or Yellen.
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends And Developments: Checking Under The Hood Of A Powerful Bull Market [View article]
    Note to readers....I am also long both India and Phillipines Etf's as a barbell approach to my US tech short exposure......I am extremely bullish on India and the region, going forward....
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends And Developments: Checking Under The Hood Of A Powerful Bull Market [View article]
    Above @ 1240 gold would be violating its long downtrend line,the signal gets much stronger then for a longer term position for me. Certainly it bears close attention.
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends And Developments: Checking Under The Hood Of A Powerful Bull Market [View article]
    I've been shorting different, rotating positions in momemtum stocks this year. I am seeing results overall, as money rotates into more defensive areas of the Nasdaq like INTC and MSFT.

    I'm trading them from a technical basis, but following their news flow.

    I hold GPRO puts.
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update 11/22 --- Chugging Along..  [View instapost]
    FG,

    Enjoy the balanced commentary -- remember everything in your "second" paragraph about hot money selling energy, and all negative news factored in, could easily be expressed in reverse when it comes to "hot money" chasing the upside -- in regards to buying based on Boj, Pboc, ecb support --- that soon all of this support will be "priced in" to other sectors, at least in the intermediate term.

    There has been heavy selling in energy, but some serious chasing in other sectors, IMO.

    Just a thought. Keep writing.
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent? [View article]
    Khyber,

    I know this is to Jeff but I agree and think the wealth disparity spring has been stretched far too far. This not only troubles me on social grounds but I think the chance of some mean reversion is high, and with that lower profit margins than their historic elevated levels.

    Funny how most reading would fight tooth and nail against policies that would help the worker class as socialism, but embrace continuing QE and Tarp bailout programs as "necessary for the stability of the system" (even to big to fail companies like GM).

    Who exactly are these programs designed to help? Not the worker class.

    If one believes in a benevolent government designing programs to help the average worker, why did they not simply enact massive tax credits for hiring?

    It's interesting how the termination of US QE was instantly followed to the day by expanded Japanese QE. Coincidence, I'm sure.

    Doesn't anyone else question if this path is a healthy one for America?
    Nov 23, 2014. 09:44 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent? [View article]
    Thank you Jeff for excellent work. Although my view of the current risks and my strategy are somewhat different, I appreciate the value and excellence of your work. Regards!
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends And Developments: Checking Under The Hood Of A Powerful Bull Market [View instapost]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Note this great article on India, also read the comment stream and my response.

    The best thing for Indians as a society...is if I make a lot of money investing there.

    Some out there.....would rather maintain a US domination by not seeing other countries climb out of poverty.

    Quite offensive to me.
    Nov 22, 2014. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India Has Embarked On A Long-Term Bull Market - Part 1 [View article]
    Feel the need to address this line of comments further from the poster Swaps, that goes beyond an investment theme.

    It is really offensive to me to read such a blatant US centric and prejudiced comment, that essentially is stating only the US should benefit from the world's resources.

    I read between the lines just fine, sir.

    I suspect if some people had their way, they would prefer the rest of the world live in mud huts (and us in Canada in igloos) while Americans maintained their McMansions powered by cheap energy.

    Such an arrogant attitude, much as some certainly value an American life at a million times a "foreigner".

    Swaps, I'm guessing you don't leave the American citadel much, unlike some of us who have travelled extensively to many countries.

    Through that travel and interaction....I learned people are people ...and have value and worth all over the world.

    I wish Mr. Modi the best -- I believe he has his people's interests at heart.
    Nov 22, 2014. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends And Developments: Checking Under The Hood Of A Powerful Bull Market [View instapost]
    http://on.barrons.com/...

    Good article on India and phillipines., I agree on these 2 themes.

    Far 2 many US centric investors who want to pile in late in an existing trend, instead of looking at the next one.
    Nov 22, 2014. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forward Looking Indicators Disagree - One Is Wrong [View instapost]
    Bbro is likely a great economist.

    And we know how good economists are at picking stocks and trading markets.

    One day you will figure out the one we actually try to make money on.
    Nov 22, 2014. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G.M. "bullied" Delphi to keep making faulty switch - NYT [View news story]
    Calculating all 50 states suing GM x $10,000 x say 500,000 vehicles say -

    Can't add that high....

    I figure one state per week announcing a new lawsuit, will keep the pressure on the stock price....

    Pretty disgusting too GM will fight the lawsuit. Government should essentially be saying, "pay for the cost of your actions", fight the lawsuit and we indict executives criminally.

    Then maybe these corporations would act reponsibly.
    Nov 22, 2014. 06:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends And Developments: Checking Under The Hood Of A Powerful Bull Market [View instapost]
    Da,

    I would watch for a break below the October lows, as a caution signal for the broader market.

    As to your other questions, I am looking for a Yen rally, soon. I am neutral on oil and uninvolved, if you pressed me I'd say "lower".
    Nov 22, 2014. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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