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Robert Duval  

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  • Crude Oil Remains A 'Sell' After Rising Imports Fuel Surprise Inventory Build [View article]
    Fred;

    Oil traded to 55.60 yesterday, during the peak summer driving season, and without Iranian oil back on the market -- something I see as close to a near term certainty. (a deal with Iran) The US needs this deal with Iran to enhance stability in the region. It will happen.

    Imagine fall pricing with Iranian oil. 45 - 50 Is easy for me to see, as its in everyone's best interest's, including US shale; to pump all they can to survive. Note this week's rig counts went UP. 40 would be an overshoot, I admit, but overshoots happen.

    I expect numerous bankruptcies and defaults before this is over -- and not in Saudi. Even large, Debt laden Shale producers like WLL and CLR -- so foolish to remove their hedges -- are in big trouble, IMO, and time is not on their side. Expect share offerings.

    Oil doesn't need to fall, even from mid 50's, for these scenarios to happen. Short WLL, CLR.
    Jul 4, 2015. 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Recent Rout Micron Is A Very Strong Buy [View article]
    With extremely rare exceptions, the more buys on a stock, the less I want it ---

    RD
    Jul 3, 2015. 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Recent Rout Micron Is A Very Strong Buy [View article]
    Tree and others,

    Might find this interesting -- wrote this in March.

    Wall Street isn't your friend, neither is management, iMO.

    Sorry for MU. I've been cautious on it for a long time, and written the same. Still think it goes lower.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 3, 2015. 04:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Remains A 'Sell' After Rising Imports Fuel Surprise Inventory Build [View article]
    Agree with the premise of the article, add Iran into the mix, WTI could shoot to 45 or even 40 in the next year.

    Like the OP I am short crude but also US shale producers, who I see as the losers at the table. As their hedges run off their debt will get squeezed hard, they are already falling in anticipation.
    Jul 3, 2015. 05:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Reason To Hold Gold [View article]
    I am short gold here, and can easily see a sub 1100 price. A breakdown is brewing here for gold.
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]
    For those interested here is the trader perspective with a current short focus anticipating some corrective activity with trades posted and updated in Real Time.

    Prices are updated as of todays close, most (short) positions were initiated and the blog posted June 10-16th, and changes made along the way as required. Losing and closed positions shown as well. Comments welcome. There is also a smaller sized long portfolio. Happy 4th!

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences- A Rare Undervalued Company In A Frothy Biotech Market [View article]
    For those interested here is the trader perspective with a current short focus anticipating some corrective activity with trades posted and updated in Real Time. Prices are updated as of todays close, most (short) positions were initiated and the blog posted June 10-16th, and changes made along the way as required. Losing and closed positions shown as well. Comments welcome. There is also a smaller sized long portfolio. Happy 4th.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Way To Judge Past Performance: Part 2 [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    For those interested here is the trader perspective with a current short focus anticipating some corrective activity with trades posted and updated in Real Time. Prices are updated as of todays close, most (short) positions were initiated and the blog posted June 10-16th, and changes made along the way as required. Losing and closed positions shown as well. Comments welcome. There is also a smaller sized long portfolio. Happy 4th.
    Jul 2, 2015. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]
    Tack, perhaps the partying has been a lot focused on private equity, therefore less visable --- UBER AIRbnb ect......
    Jul 2, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be A Deal For Greece, And Why That Is Bearish For U.S. Exporters And Shale Oil [View article]
    July 1rst update. Current positioning can be found HERE: http://seekingalpha.co...

    As noted there I have covered China shorts BABA and VIPS, focusing on Shale oil producers. I am concerned with China's lack of a sustained rally in the face of stimulus and consider them far more important than Greece either way .

    Short WLL and CLR, switching from PXD. These names are toxic right now and energy bulls should be cautious as I expect Shale debt to become a story soon. Juniors like EXXI are destroyed already.

    With Iran poised to agree to terms and have there oil come back online, a summer collapse in Oil is very bearish as this is the seasonally strong period.

    The Euro is weakening and this may be hurting areas like semi's as well, I am short SNDK which is in free fall.

    I also note Bonds were very weak even with oil down so much, although a Greece deal may have pressured them.

    China remains a key area of focus.
    Jul 1, 2015. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be A Deal For Greece, And Why That Is Bearish For U.S. Exporters And Shale Oil [View article]
    Carl Icahn on CNBC interview saying exactly what I am -- its all about credit bubble and ridiculous yields, sounding a warning.
    Jun 24, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    WSD;

    Fact of the matter many Investors -- not the author -- are doing what investors always do -- Chase. Chasing IBB near 400 NFLX 700 -- it was 400 April 1rst! -- as smart money like Carl Icahn sells out.

    They all pretend to become experts but all they are doing is chasing what's been hot. It's always been that way, and always will be. Game never changes, nor do the stories of magical riches.

    It's sheer comedy to believe now every Biotech investor went long when the IBB was 100 - not 400 but thats the spin presented.

    Added NFLX to my short book at 695; "documented"
    Jun 24, 2015. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    "If the standard of skill is simply based who had a recent large gain on some stock or some market, shouldn't we all be admiring and heeding the advice of the Chinese rural investing novices who have the largest returns on planet in the last six months?"

    +1. WSD. And all trumpeted gains ---- and much less trumpeted losses --- included, very, very few beat the S&P 500 total return over any period of time.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be A Deal For Greece, And Why That Is Bearish For U.S. Exporters And Shale Oil [View article]
    Readers,

    One factor impacting the oil market that has been brought to my attention is the impending nuclear deal with Iran -- which would bring substantial supply back onto the market.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking The Incipient Inflation Trade: Signposts, Indicators And Investment Opportunities [View article]
    Readers,

    Regarding this "incipient inflation thesis" -- I'm more cautious now about how fast this will develop, and how long it might take. Certainly the article is intended to encourage some allocation to what are very cheap and out of favour areas.

    I am also very positive on the stocks I have listed, although I currently do not own all of them and have slashed sizing of the reminder.

    On the broader inflation question, I think I'm half right (wage and health care inflation, and a stronger US economy) half wrong / half early (commodity inflation.

    As noted above I have sold my energy exposure and gone short on a different group of US shale and Canadian oil sands stocks. I see crude oil as vunerable in the intermediate term.

    Long term the rise of Indian demand could have a major effect, but this is likely some time off.

    Taking developments as they come.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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