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Robert Duval

 
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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    SG;

    I've become convinced economies, on the whole, are slowing worldwide, and will do so without considerable fiscal stimulus, which I don't see happening as yet.

    I have initiated new short positions on (CAT) and (JOY). Without either Fiscal Stimulus or assertive Euro QE / restart of US QE; all of which is hard to see; I see lower prices in certain sectors of the market.

    (IBM) is a tell to me. This company has had poor revenue trends for what seems like forever, the market looked past that to their share buybacks. Now it matters, and I think it will matter to a host of companies.

    I suspect the days of companies like Amazon telling the market to look past the lack of profitability as well, and focus on the future, may also be in jeopardy.
    Oct 20 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    SG;

    My SPX target is the mid-1700's at this stage. I was trying to speak conservatively.
    Oct 20 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    I think the index buyers in the US are -- premature. Germany continues to sell off.

    I will not -- not -- join those investors piling into the US as the whole rest of world weakens, assuming that trend continues.

    Market IMO is quite a bit driven by 3 or 4 high beta stocks. If these 4 correct to any degree, things will get ugly.

    GILD FB APPL TWTR

    I am shorting more energy this morning, SU RIG CLF.

    If oil goes into the 70's, some of these guys might get into a little trouble.

    I still expect a retest in the low 1800's basis SPX.
    Oct 20 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    FG,

    For sure conflicted.

    I suppose for me the largest potential issue is a Europe bond buyers strike. Yes, not much has occurred, but it certainly seems reasonable with their economy for buyers to back away.

    Would anyone here lend to Europe sovereigns at even twice their current yields? I would not, except Germany -- and look at those yields!

    Is it possible some of the US stock valuation is due to international investors using US equities as a "flight to safety" from riskier climes? Would this behaviour ultimately change to cash only as a flight to safety? These are questions I ask when comparing US markets to weak international markets.
    Oct 19 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Correction Overdone - Bounce Back Imminent [View article]
    Just because an asset is down -- doesn't mean it's cheap.
    Oct 18 07:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confused, Bothered And Bewildered [View article]
    Lovin the return to Vol George....my vote and positioning is for a retest, and soon.
    Oct 18 07:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    SG -- absolutely on earnings.

    The only metric investors should use IMO are trailing Gapp eps and trailing FCF.


    The financial media should refuse these fantasy numbers called "adjusted earnings" - must be the new term for pro - forma. Of course the media are simply the shills for wall street and not the friend of the common investor.
    Oct 18 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    What I did Friday -- the trader perspective.

    Because I am reasonably confident in either a retest or a selloff to the mid 1700's, I was a seller on Friday and shorted several issues. These are pre - earnings trades, and all immediately moved in my favour after the opening 30 minutes.

    Shorted (RIG) -- with that older fleet and weak oil -- just think it can trade into the low 20's.

    (P) and (ANGI) -- which have bounced on takeover rumours. I will hold these into eps. Takeover chatter on weakening stocks is a red flag to me ( that they likely are going lower).

    Covered aapl short, too high a quality, lost $1.00.

    Shorted a couple of other junior shale plays, as I expect further weakness in oil, and a resumption of the dollar rally.

    Short spain ETF, I don't see how things dont weaken for them, and likely italy and France, too.

    Short AMZN again. I just really think if they will sell off a profitable GOOG report, when AMZN reports, which I don't expect to be very good, how do they not sell it off?

    I'd like to flip to buying again, but would love to see a 40 VIX print to sell puts into. I think there is a chance of this.
    Oct 18 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Is Coming Apart [View article]
    Thanks for the detailed and thoughtful response -- Robert
    Oct 18 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    SG;

    I certainly disagree with him the second he states with authority this dip has anything to do with Ebola.

    That's ridiculous logic for something that has affected (2) people in the US. Certainly strains credibility.

    Ebola is a sideshow other than affecting airline stocks ect. by a few percent. Exactly how does Ebola affect the valuation of say, the BDC group, or and industrial like (UTX)?

    Anyway, Bullish sentiment went UP. Where exactly is the panic?

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 18 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Is Coming Apart [View article]
    SU -- sharing this with a few. Trying to understand the right valuation in this environment. You or readers want to take a shot?


    I am trying to understand the answers to a few simple questions. Maybe they are the wrong questions but from what I observe they seem to be awfully important to market participants. Please try to answer as directly as possible:


    1. What has been the stock market valuation impact -- not economic --- and not interest rate -- impact of QE? Just confined to Stock valuations. And if an impact -- why or why not?


    --- an important sub question -- how much, if any, institutional exposure / leverage, is affected by QE and its removal? If so, How? Look at the action this week -- certainly this was affected somehow by leverage. How much is out there?


    2. IMO a statement from any Fed governor is approved at the top -- especially when not followed by a rebuttal comment from the Chair. Nothing is random -- IMO only.


    So again -- when so much of the program has been tapered -- and interest rates have obviously fallen so there is not issue there -- why is QE even remaining in the discussion? What possible harm could there be from saying it is "off the table" to return?


    3. What would you say the catalyst has been for the recent correction? Is it only pure co-incidence it has commenced, as in 2011 and 2012, as QE is winding down? Is it self - fulfilling prophecy? If simply overvaluation, why now -- not in may or July? Arguabley the economic data has improved since then, but inflation has remained very low. This should be the perfect environment!


    4. Why are all commodities so persistently weak in the face of an (apparently) accelerating US economy? Simply a commodity bear market or is there any value in commodities as a forecast for world economic growth.


    5. Lastly -- This should be the perfect environment as I stated before for US equities -- deleveraged consumers, low inflation, low oil, improving growth and jobs -- why are so many "billionaires" so darn cautious? (soros,druckenmiller,k... ichan.....others...) Maybe irrelevant -- but why?

    Oct 18 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Implications Of A Republican Takeover Of The Senate [View article]
    Bret -- sharing this with a few. Trying to understand the right valuation in this environment. You or readers want to take a shot?


    I am trying to understand the answers to a few simple questions. Maybe they are the wrong questions but from what I observe they seem to be awfully important to market participants. Please try to answer as directly as possible:


    1. What has been the stock market valuation impact -- not economic --- and not interest rate -- impact of QE? Just confined to Stock valuations. And if an impact -- why or why not?


    --- an important sub question -- how much, if any, institutional exposure / leverage, is affected by QE and its removal? If so, How? Look at the action this week -- certainly this was affected somehow by leverage. How much is out there?


    2. IMO a statement from any Fed governor is approved at the top -- especially when not followed by a rebuttal comment from the Chair. Nothing is random -- IMO only.


    So again -- when so much of the program has been tapered -- and interest rates have obviously fallen so there is not issue there -- why is QE even remaining in the discussion? What possible harm could there be from saying it is "off the table" to return?


    3. What would you say the catalyst has been for the recent correction? Is it only pure co-incidence it has commenced, as in 2011 and 2012, as QE is winding down? Is it self - fulfilling prophecy? If simply overvaluation, why now -- not in may or July? Arguabley the economic data has improved since then, but inflation has remained very low. This should be the perfect environment!


    4. Why are all commodities so persistently weak in the face of an (apparently) accelerating US economy? Simply a commodity bear market or is there any value in commodities as a forecast for world economic growth.


    5. Lastly -- This should be the perfect environment as I stated before for US equities -- deleveraged consumers, low inflation, low oil, improving growth and jobs -- why are so many "billionaires" so darn cautious? (soros,druckenmiller,k... ichan.....others...) Maybe irrelevant -- but why?

    Oct 18 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    George -- sharing this with a few. Trying to understand the right valuation in this environment. You or readers want to take a shot?

    I am trying to understand the answers to a few simple questions. Maybe they are the wrong questions but from what I observe they seem to be awfully important to market participants. Please try to answer as directly as possible:


    1. What has been the stock market valuation impact -- not economic --- and not interest rate -- impact of QE? Just confined to Stock valuations. And if an impact -- why or why not?


    --- an important sub question -- how much, if any, institutional exposure / leverage, is affected by QE and its removal? If so, How? Look at the action this week -- certainly this was affected somehow by leverage. How much is out there?


    2. IMO a statement from any Fed governor is approved at the top -- especially when not followed by a rebuttal comment from the Chair. Nothing is random -- IMO only.


    So again -- when so much of the program has been tapered -- and interest rates have obviously fallen so there is not issue there -- why is QE even remaining in the discussion? What possible harm could there be from saying it is "off the table" to return?


    3. What would you say the catalyst has been for the recent correction? Is it only pure co-incidence it has commenced, as in 2011 and 2012, as QE is winding down? Is it self - fulfilling prophecy? If simply overvaluation, why now -- not in may or July? Arguabley the economic data has improved since then, but inflation has remained very low. This should be the perfect environment!


    4. Why are all commodities so persistently weak in the face of an (apparently) accelerating US economy? Simply a commodity bear market or is there any value in commodities as a forecast for world economic growth.


    5. Lastly -- This should be the perfect environment as I stated before for US equities -- deleveraged consumers, low inflation, low oil, improving growth and jobs -- why are so many "billionaires" so darn cautious? (soros,druckenmiller,k... ichan.....others...) Maybe irrelevant -- but why?


    Thanks for the responses!
    Oct 18 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    SG, T, DD, L, FG:

    I am trying to understand the answers to a few simple questions. Maybe they are the wrong questions but from what I observe they seem to be awfully important to market participants. Please try to answer as directly as possible:

    1. What has been the stock market valuation impact -- not economic --- and not interest rate -- impact of QE? Just confined to Stock valuations. And if an impact -- why or why not?

    --- an important sub question -- how much, if any, institutional exposure / leverage, is affected by QE and its removal? If so, How? Look at the action this week -- certainly this was affected somehow by leverage. How much is out there?

    2. IMO a statement from any Fed governor is approved at the top -- especially when not followed by a rebuttal comment from the Chair. Nothing is random -- IMO only.

    So again -- when so much of the program has been tapered -- and interest rates have obviously fallen so there is not issue there -- why is QE even remaining in the discussion? What possible harm could there be from saying it is "off the table" to return?

    3. What would you say the catalyst has been for the recent correction? Is it only pure co-incidence it has commenced, as in 2011 and 2012, as QE is winding down? Is it self - fulfilling prophecy? If simply overvaluation, why now -- not in may or July? Arguabley the economic data has improved since then, but inflation has remained very low. This should be the perfect environment!

    4. Why are all commodities so persistently weak in the face of an (apparently) accelerating US economy? Simply a commodity bear market or is there any value in commodities as a forecast for world economic growth.

    5. Lastly -- This should be the perfect environment as I stated before for US equities -- deleveraged consumers, low inflation, low oil, improving growth and jobs -- why are so many "billionaires" so darn cautious? (soros,druckenmiller,k... ichan.....others...) Maybe irrelevant -- but why?

    Thanks for the responses!
    Oct 18 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #45 [View instapost]
    Tack,

    You make sense in your writings, in everything you have said.

    Selfishly of course I don't want QE, because I have underperformed during it, it has made markets trade stangely at times, and I can outperform in volatile times. Certainly I have experienced many instances.

    One of my best trades was cutting a loss, just remembering it now. I was heavily long before the first TARP vote in 2008 and got badly caught. I was shocked it failed. You don't ever vote on something not pre-decided. You line up the votes and then do the formality.

    Anyway they re-passed the vote a few days later -- and the market had that massive gap up -- remember?

    I sold every position I had on the open that morning- about 15 of them -- and we are talking some size -- which was good because we slid and slid fast after that.

    Forgive the story. Not implying that is returning.

    You are right high yield can forgive a lot of uncertainty. I need to increase my longer term ideas on sustainable yield ideas, at it seems low rates will be here quite a while.
    Oct 18 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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