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Robert Duval

 
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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    (TRQ) ...(miner) Buy it now or above 3.60... about to violate weekly downtrend line from Jan 2011 -- imminent explosive move if occurs.

    Long (TRQ)

    Currently 3.60. Watch closely.
    Nov 19 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    BSF,

    India is up nothing compared to what they will be up -- IF -- A huge If -- they begin to fulfill their potential.

    The long list of issues you identify, which I am quite familiar with, are exactly why the upside potential is so huge. They will be solved -- at least there is a leader that will make a serious effort.

    China....is built out. Fast growth...is done, for now. If they can make the handoff to a consumer culture, china may have another wave...but is clearly on a slowing trend. I am bullish on china but not so much.

    It's also all about valuation. By my measurement, which discounts the next several years of growth, India is dirt cheap.

    As one who is indentified as a short seller, I have a long side vision on this.

    I have travelled to a lot of developing countries. I am looking for a window to travel to India, and will get there within the next year.

    On another point -- I dont believe in diversification. I run a highly concentrated portfolio, usually 3 or 4 themes at a time, maybe a dozen issues. Yes there is higher risk, but I invest -- trade -- to get paid when I'm right. Hence I take a lot of small losses, testing out ideas.

    Right now, those themes, which have been themes a lot of this year --- but I've traded around them, are long gold and other miners (trade), long natural gas, (intermediate term investment), long India, (long term focused investment, plus phillipines ), short social media (traded this all year). That's it. Oh, long Norboard...my one housing play.

    I'm out of china A -- took profits -- I'm just not sure on china at this juncture. Want to watch for awhile.
    Nov 18 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    T,

    "I spent five years down there"

    That makes sense now. You have an affinity for the country. Doesn't make it a good investment.

    It's a big world.
    Nov 18 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    What can I say. Cyclical bear call for the US is at least premature, which makes it wrong. End of story.

    I bailed on Russia some time ago --- when Ukraine didn't resolve. I was wrong on that one, too, overall, in assuming a quick end. Wasn't alone on that bet.

    I won't touch Russia again for the same reason brazil is a bad value trap, wrong leadership. Same with turkey.

    China....having issues making up my mind. Suspect not alone there, either....

    In any of those 3 if new leadership was elected that was business friendly and democratic, I'd be in all of them immediately.

    If the US catches a cold, of course i would be shorting it which would help offset any em losses...
    Nov 18 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    Might happen -- who knows.
    Nov 18 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    Invest;

    I am not calling a downturn, with money anyway. I am shorting BABA, AAPL, and also YELP and LNKD; against long side exposure.
    Nov 18 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    My .02 --is all em's are deeply out of favor.

    If EM's were as strong as the SPX as a group, India would have doubled already.

    PE ratio is high because earnings are about to go beserk, IMO, just like the SPX coming off the 2009 lows. By that measurement India is trading, up 30%, like the SPX move from 700 to 1000. Its just the first move. You will not get a chance to buy India again at a 10 PE. Not going to happen.

    Strong get stronger. India will outperform the SPX by multiples going forward, is my assessment, if for no other reason, that the "story" is at a much earlier stage.
    Nov 18 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India Has Embarked On A Long-Term Bull Market - Part 1 [View article]
    296600,

    So you must be shorting India, then right??
    Nov 18 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Dropping On Japan And Draghi [View article]
    Markos, Suspect it goes higher....risk control leads though....
    Nov 18 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    I am trying to think when I ever agreed to terms......

    Anyway looks like Nasdaq won't turn today, in any regard.

    I'll just keep riding GDXJ higher....
    Nov 18 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    L;

    How would I know it's "early", in any event, exactly?
    Nov 18 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Dropping On Japan And Draghi [View article]
    I've sold out of the leveraged (NUGT), keeping (GDXJ), (SLW)....
    Nov 18 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    L;E; why is it early, again?

    Doesn't it make more sense to invest in a region that is

    A) Out of Favor;
    B) Uncrowded , unpopular with investors;
    C) priced already for a "crisis: that hasn't occurred;

    Vs a Region (the US) where an awful lot of good news is clearly priced in?
    Nov 18 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    Invest -- Gosh I hope so.

    If we get a serious EM crisis, the SPX will get creamed, as its gone parabolic in relation. Thats what everyone misses. People are piling more and more into the expensive market, US, while fearfully ignoring the fast growing regions at half the valuation!

    At some point, have no idea when, and not trading it, this extremely crowded, DGI based, US centric trade is going to get creamed -- if only as a nasty correction.

    India is going to triple in years to come, I don't care if I can't time it.

    Why is "time in the market, not timing the market" only apply to US DGI stocks?

    I truly don't get it.
    Nov 18 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #48 [View instapost]
    Tack;

    no I think you are for ever liking (PBR) or (VALE).....


    Who here wants a friendly bet -- no money -- Nasdaq reverses at least 40 points from price right now (+18) by Day's end?
    Nov 18 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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