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Robert Duval  

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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    I didn't like baba, shorted it, didn't stick with it.

    I'm not short but still don't like it. Maybe it's a Chinese stock -- but I just don't trust it.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    Interesting the difference between what he says and what he does.

    I doubt he regrets the appl sale. I'm happy for the Bulls there. Great, great investment.

    But NO investment idea on the entire planet, is more popular, and more crowded than being long aaple.

    Such consensus usually doesn't outperform on any longer term basis. At current pricing I'm happily neutral on aaple.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    FG,

    Current numbers from Barrons.

    SPX Gapp pe 20 price / book almost 3
    Trannies pe 23. Price / book. 4.

    Yes zero rates....but pricy......if earnings growth stalls -- remember It was 4% ex Apple 2% only --- tough slog to increase PE's.

    But as josh says not many appealing other places. I like India and Phillipines (long) Thailand and Indonesia (not long but monitoring).
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    Another data point.

    David Tepper late last year reduced holdings by 40%. Kept in cash.

    Tepper has ridden the bull well ---

    http://on.wsj.com/1A5N1hR
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Bubble Bursting? [View article]
    Growth rate? You mean hope rate.

    Today's valuation is fact. Any projection without credibility is wishful thinking. It's on the Bulls to prove Tesla can grow at their lofty projections, and make money, not bears to disprove today's ridiculous valuations.

    Short Tesla in size.
    Feb 13, 2015. 09:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    T,

    That hurts the sizzle of tesla and will whack the stock.

    These companies market their stock more than their products.

    I couldn't care less what actually happens in the long run.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    http://cnb.cx/1IVWks0

    Another -- ummm---- questionable portfolio.

    Amazon your largest position? Hmmmm

    Then citadels thoughts. Good 2014, too.

    http://cnb.cx/1vJAcLV
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    http://cnb.cx/1vJzPAY

    I missed this before.

    Really happy I'm short tesla.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box: Running A Painful Marathon [View article]
    Why?

    Because the stock in these companies is the real product.

    Short box.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple car project is for real, and it's a minivan [View news story]
    This is great news for my Tesla short, which acted great (weak) during this market meltup.

    Facts, details are irrelevant to argue over. Tesla sells nice cars, but it's also marketing its image, cool, uniqueness, and through those it's stock valuation.

    The sizzle. Now somebody (actually several somebodies, with bmw, Audi in the wings) has the sizzle. Tesla in a year will be one of a crowd.

    Musk was promoting the stock this week. Stock didn't take and someone (JPM?) downgraded it.

    Stock is done at this level.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    To add to the above -- in future bigger money will be made in EM.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/1A5vxCk

    Josh brown, and GMO.

    Article kind of answers FG's query above, which in essence, asks why I just don't stay (fully) long.

    After all I'm not a bear on the US economy, or situation (absent 1930's trade wars. Stay viligent. The moment you hear nasty trade barriers and sanctions, take action. Hopefully never happens)

    Anyway we are expensive. Everyone knows the US is the only place to invest. Heck I read that here! And I agree. But because of that it isn't.

    In years to come the SPX will advance to 2400 and beyond. I have little doubt. But in that window I might double or triple my money in India or Phillipines, my 2 favoured. (All Asia region. Turkey if govt changes).

    All I'm waiting for is EM to act right. Then I'll go wild on it.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #65 [View instapost]
    FG,

    I'm not convinced we break out, and if we do, how far we will go. Just playing it conservatively. I have a number of longs.

    T,

    Did you see the late report Apple is working on an electric car. I think tesla could correct a further 50 points. Box is a slam dunk short iMO.

    Today I ditched the India ETF, but added Fairfax financial both the main co and an India investment fund prem watsa has launched. ETF was just sitting there.
    Feb 13, 2015. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    James, a few points.

    Where I agree with you:

    Economy is getting stronger domestically,
    Liquidity preference is starting to change,
    Positive signs in sectors like housing with pent up demand, lending, ect,
    Households balance sheet is strong, for the most part,
    US is the best house and dollar keeps going.

    Potential intermediate issues -- relate to credit.
    Total debt -- all issuers has grown to over 200 trillion worldwide, up 57 trillion since 2008. Source economist. This is heavily weighted to governments.
    Much of the bull market expansion, as opposed to the economy, has been fueled by corporate buybacks.

    Greater lending almost certainly means bond rates will rise, as they have, and corp bond rates will also rise, as they have. There could be a period of digestion assuming this rise impairs share buybacks. Rate rises can happen regardless of Fed actions, and changes the favourable deficit numbers. A credit bubble is my biggest worry -- not a stock bubble per se.

    Other factors are the strong dollar's impacts and wage gains pressuring margins.

    I'm very constructive on the US economy long term but have overseas concerns, particularly China. I also think Germany needs to take a hard line with Greece. Speed bumps.

    Also as noted we are not cheap. We are very overdue for a multi week correction, but have no clue when this may occur.

    I'm playing this with a moving barbell approach. Long housing and financial stocks, short unprofitable momentum names, depending on where we are in the trading ranges.

    The ball game totally changes if this stealth currency war changes to a 1930's "trade war". Hopefully won't happen.
    Feb 13, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    Nasdaq is half of values related to GDP from 2000.....

    And it should be. Even half of 2000's values is expensive.
    Feb 13, 2015. 06:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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