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Robert Duval  

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  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    Uhmm....I'm far from brilliant -- my commentary should make that apparent -- make lots of mistakes.

    And -- a lot of my trades are long positons -- and some long term investments as well. They all contribute.

    As far as posting --- my ideas will have to do as posted, for anyone's benefit, and my own tracking of my thoughts -- so I think this conversations concluded.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 9, 2015. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SA....just to be clear on my views. I see, broadly; outside of selected areas like private equity and junior biotech, stocks are not in a bubble -- just very pricy.

    Bonds are another story; they are in bubble territory, IMO. I thought bonds might pop, incite a big, buyable correction in stocks -- but it hasn't happened.

    It's a multi move chess game; and my read is just too early.

    Inflation is likely to show up first, bidding up inflation stocks; then long bonds tank, corporates, then Fed is forced to tighten. Not before, there is time then for inflation rotation -- EM, Copper, Oil, ect.....
    Apr 9, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    "You are trying to short a raging bull market in stocks which is difficult to do even when your short positions are justified by fact based and rational reasons."

    Its hard to argue with that. And the longer we consolidate sideways without breaking, the more dangerous shorting is, as we work off the bullish sentiment excess.

    I am ( repeatedly) trying to anticipate issues that are likely to arise but haven't yet. Its too hard and I don't need to be "first". Less is more, I keep telling myself.

    I saw EM as an opportunity before it moved. I've squandered some of that. I do see good long side opportunities, but get thrown off focus.

    Not happy with my recent decisions even if the damage is minor.
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    "But fact is earnings are in decline and stock valuations are getting higher every day."

    -- And they may get higher still.
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Update -- Second Quarter 2015 [View instapost]
    Made back today most of the losses from those (premature) shorts; PBR HLF others running.

    I repeat to myself -- again and again -- valuation shorts will only work with serious competition from higher interest rates.

    And for that -- higher inflation is (likely) to come first -- so buy a few assets that might benefit from that -- instead of shorting.

    There is active chatter about a June hike. Market doesn't care. 2040 on the SPX held. Thats it. Have to listen, and keep listening! I expected a nasdaq break as noted above. Tried to ANTICIPATE, (again) that is costly. It didn't happen, rotation happened instead.

    I took another small loss, and small losses -- are OK. Large ones aren't. Too many mistakes lately -- will try to move on -- a bit frustrated with myslelf trying to forecast a correction.

    It's too early; Robert. This is a LONG cycle.

    I'll stick to my long plays, but keep the option protection --
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SA;

    I get where you are coming from; but only pockets of the market are really crazy at this juncture, and I can't even make money, with any reliability, shorting those areas.

    There is too much liquidity. Whether this is morally a good thing or a future disaster, is less important to me that not getting run over while this all plays out.

    Bottom line; as I wrote on my blog, but haven't always listened to my own counsel; is big problems will show in the bond market first.

    And so far they haven't. So I'm back to long side (only) but with protection from QQQ long dated puts.
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SG;

    I still own all three. (actaully sold BANC; kept BHB / WTBA)

    Made back today most of the losses from those (premature) shorts; PBR HLF others running.

    I repeat to myself -- again and again -- valuation shorts will only work with serious competition from higher interest rates.

    And for that -- higher inflation is (likely) to come first -- so buy a few assets that might benefit from that -- instead of shorting.

    There is active chatter about a June hike. Market doesn't care. 2040 on the SPX held. Thats it. Have to listen, and keep listening!

    I took another small loss, and small losses -- are OK. Large ones aren't. Too many mistakes lately -- will try to move on --

    It's too early; Robert. This is a LONG cycle.
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Update -- Second Quarter 2015 [View instapost]
    As an update on my blog as well -- In addition to my long term longs in EM / India, Philippines, housing related, and solar, I've added back (GILD) long as it re- approaches that major wedge breakout; TRQ (copper) and (PBR), and (BBRY). Also added a bit to (HLF) (LL)


    Market remains strong, bends doesn't break--
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    As an update on my blog as well -- In addition to my long term longs in EM / India, Philippines, housing related, and solar, I've added back (GILD) long as it re- approaches that major wedge breakout; TRQ (copper) and (PBR), and (BBRY). Also added a bit to (HLF) (LL)

    Market remains strong, bends doesn't break.
    Apr 9, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    From my blog -- just now:

    Author’s reply » (large sigh).

    Taking another Mea culpa and closing all individual shorts except the long dated QQQ puts.

    These would be BABA BIDU Z YELP DYAX TSLA FFIV ASHR

    Mixed results, but overall modest losses.

    Bottom line, simply too much liquidity out there! It's too dangerous; except for fixed cost options.

    Back to the drawing board....
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Update -- Second Quarter 2015 [View instapost]
    (large sigh).

    Taking another Mea culpa and closing all individual shorts except the long dated QQQ puts.

    Mixed results, but overall losses.

    Bottom line, simply too much liquidity out there! It's too dangerous.
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SG,

    What is your opinion, using the same rationale, for

    A) ASHR,

    B) junior biotech stocks?
    Apr 8, 2015. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SG,

    I understand. My comment was for FG, who commented that the dollar had gone "parabolic". (Implying an imminent major top)

    I responded with a comment on China -- ASHR -- which I understand has appreciated 94% in a number of months.

    The dollar has been strong, but it hasn't doubled in a few months, or in 6 days like YDAX, the biotech stock I referenced in my prior comments.

    But No One is calling (junior) biotech "parabolic". Curious.
    Apr 8, 2015. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    Good. Let's talk about the dollar. Are you shorting the dollar right here?
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    SG,

    I honestly don't know. I'm uncomfortable with what I read in the Bloomberg article, and other articles, but the article does not reference your particular securities, but rather (ASHR).

    I am uncomfortable that being 100%, or worse levered long as seems to be the norm if we examine margin debt data, in risk assets in a world with oceans of liquidity and risk is ridiculed as a four letter word.

    I'm not smart enough to see when this liquidity train will change tracks, but after 6 years of zero rates, I question the factual statement made by many there are no excesses in the credit markets -- because human nature never changes.

    Now, if you or others disagree with me that we are quite overdue for a credit - driven risk adjustment to to the current environment, after which perhaps better values will appear, I will have to live with that.

    I am interested --
    What is your impression of the article, and after examining the ASHR chart, buying at this juncture?

    Or another chart (which I shorted today) (DYAX) which is a money losing biotech that has just doubled on a phase 1 (earliest stage) trial result?
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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