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Robert Duval  

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  • A Great Day To Reduce Risk And Sell/Short U.S. Shale Oil Producers [View article]
    "There is a potential political component to rate hikes that the Fed doesn’t acknowledge but most Fed watchers assume. Next year is an election year, and the central bank doesn’t want its interest-rate hikes to be politicized. It probably will want to be well into a tightening program before the election campaign begins in earnest"

    From Barrons. Maybe. Maybe they try to hold rates at zero to reward those that appointed them. It's all academic to me -- but Barrons may have a point.
    Jun 20, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Stock Market Will Charge Higher [View article]
    As others have posted, display data links to back up assertations, sir.

    I have factual data -- as source -- displaying individual investor exposure to stocks, as a % of assets, is just below ATH's reached March of 2000.

    Public is in, via ETF, funds, stocks, they are in, believe me.

    Anyway how do you get 75% investing in stocks...when there are, I'm guessing now, somewhere in the area of 25% minor children out there. Every single adult in the United states?
    Jun 20, 2015. 10:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The 'Buffett Indicator' [View article]

    Totally true. Sheep with their heads inside of the butt of the one in front. Revisionist investing. Look for any asset that has had a huge run, and buy every minor dip.

    Works great until something like the shale oil crash occurs, and 75% losses happen, while the sheep freeze in the headlights.

    And they haven't given up...they are still trying to buy shale oil...

    Most of these investors neither know how and when to take a loss, which means they are never wrong.

    There are Bulls still defending a stock like LINE. Down massively....Bulls are still hoping oil will save them there. Can't let go
    Jun 20, 2015. 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Time Friday: Here Come Those Tears Again [View article]
    Tack, any recent developments here?

    I am short PXD, WLL (who I believe will require more financing) Canadian names SU and COS. Those 2 have a big political issue, as well.

    Open to ideas, though.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha On Day 1 [View article]
    Chris, completely agree. Along with volunteering, perhaps.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Exit [View article]

    I think very, very few. I remember the tone in 2013. Much fewer Bears now, articles and comments.

    Anyway the comment stands as a valid. We've had panic selloffs in 2010, 2011,2012 even (minor). Since then any have been extremely brief.

    Anyway I don't think they've been outlawed. Perhaps not a common occurrence --- I'm just making the point on human behaviour.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha On Day 1 [View article]
    Chris, I bought my 2007 BMW 3 years old -- paid cash -- off someone's lease return. Absolutely mint condition. Half price of a new one. Still have it, cost me very little, actually. It does have scratches, and yes I care yes.

    Leasing expensive cars continually is one fast way to never achieve financial freedom...never owning anything. Payments....are the enemy, perhaps except for productive investment land. That's interesting and sometime I should explore, one day, perhaps for Timber. I digress.

    I started from extremely humble means -- and make loads and loads of mistakes today. It's possible to learn this game and achieve some security, with hard work and study, (especially knowing oneself!) but not while starting under the heavy burdens of debt and an expensive lifestyle.

    Those most emotional and attached to money....have perhaps more trouble with it. Those most agnostic....seeing as a tool....will have greater clarity of thought about important choices necessary to grow wealth.

    Not sure if this last sentence will make sense to anyone, or not.

    One more important thought. Even with success, this can complicate not simply life. As in all things, one must count the cost.

    Jun 19, 2015. 10:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Exit [View article]
    Who cares?

    Nobody. Doesn't even enter my thoughts as to my positioning.
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Time Friday: Here Come Those Tears Again [View article]

    Short shale oil, China. Those did nice today.

    Junior biotech -- next.
    Jun 19, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudia Arabia set to pump maximum crude, analysts predict [View news story]
    I agree with GS. US Shale oil is far from done in Cramers house of pain.
    Jun 19, 2015. 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]

    I admit I'm far from any expert on drug pricing. I live in Canada.

    What is Solvadi's pricing here vs US,

    Why the difference, (I assume it's lower here, and these are negotiated deals)

    If lower here what would prevent the US from changing the pricing regime.
    Jun 19, 2015. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The 'Buffett Indicator' [View article]

    Great point again!

    The big mistake the amateurs are making -- some are calling the market 60% undervalued on this basis -- is justifying expensive although not bubble valuations on one asset (stocks) by basing those valustions on the outright bubble valuations of another asset (bonds) and far above normal profit margins to boot.

    So put another way -- while no one can time witn precision -- Bulls tout this story when confronted with the existing sluggish economy, flat earnings, flat revenue, and pricy levels of PE. They say PE ratios don't have to get more expensive --- but the following will happen:

    1. The economy will boom in the future (don't disagree at all, long term)

    2. Profit margins will stay permanently high, because neither wage costs or commodity input costs won't move AT ALL during a boom -- ludicrous!

    3. -- more ludicrous -- interest rates won't move AT ALL, so share buybacks will continue at all time record paces with borrowed money.

    Tell me how all this works -- an economic boom -- with long run zero inflation.

    Long run, I'm a bull, but this is not an ideal entry point, IMO.
    Jun 19, 2015. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    To answer --are large caps in a bubble -- No I dont -- but they aren't screaming values anymore, or great entry points, right here.

    A bursting of the small cap IPO bubble would create better entry levels.
    Jun 19, 2015. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    Tony, that didn't stop the Government from enacting a rule to sweep all Fannie profits in perpetuity. Laws can be changed. Look at Brazil and Petrobas.

    I'm not saying it will happen, or even likely. But if GILD is too agressive with their pricing, they might piss someone important off. Laws could be enacted -- price controls.

    Ask the big banks how much fun that has been. Tied up in court for years and villified in the public eye. Let's assume a future recession, one day, or increased pressures on fiscal budgets for some reason -- interest rates. Who would an easy target be? No doubt the benign outcome would be lower prices.

    If I was in public service, I'd be tempted to go after these guys. (Forgetting the payoffs out there).

    Political factors are powerful. Ask Alberta oil Sands investors how it's going since their election.

    It's a fine company, unlike the juniors, with real profits. Just pointing out risks. It ain't going to a 30 -40 PE for that reason, likely.
    Jun 19, 2015. 06:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The 'Buffett Indicator' [View article]
    Private equity values -- great point Marcian!

    Anyone questioning the gigantic valuations built up into private equity -- well I all I can say is I'm thankful. And good luck! (You'll need it)

    If wisdom were consensus, it wouldn't be wisdom, likely.

    For those PERMA - BULLS I suggest they invest all their money in UBER and AIR BnB when they go public, as values are so reasonable.

    After all when I short those I need someone to buy into them.......
    Jun 19, 2015. 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment