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Robert Duval  

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  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel,

    No dog in this debate but I no longer forecast anything, and certainly not on such a short time frame.

    I have a view on the likely catalyst for a serious correction which I've wrote about in my last article -- higher inflation and interest rates --- but as far as when, if and how, I'll continue to let the market do the talking and trade risks appropriately.

    I have a pretty good longer term view on what might happen (and we may be in the incipient stages) but when, how long, how much, I neither know nor need to know, nor does anyone else.

    I simply trade risk.
    May 8, 2015. 05:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Trigger For Reducing Exposure - Its All About Bonds [View article]
    I've added further to my long dated TLT put position, and raised a little more cash, as well.

    It is overtly dangerous to buy fixed income at these yields, IMO.
    May 8, 2015. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Trigger For Reducing Exposure - Its All About Bonds [View article]
    WSD,

    Exactly -- everyone is focused on the Fed -- and they should be focused on treasuries and corporate bonds.

    The tail doesn't way the dog, and the Fed at the end of the day, is only the tail. Long bonds and buyers continuing willingness to finance share repurchases and other largess to shareholders at low or negative real yields are the big Dog here, and if bond investors pull their bids due to higher inflation expectations, I expect ripple effects.
    May 7, 2015. 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Trigger For Reducing Exposure - Its All About Bonds [View article]
    On another note, I'm quite upset that a gentleman full of wisdom and experience, far beyond almost anyone on this site, and a truly generous nature in attempting to teach both principles and specifics on valuing investments, has decided to stop writing and commenting after one too many troll comments.

    South Gent -- I tip my cap to you. You are one of the best and I hope you return.

    As to those threatened by South Gents wisdom and success -- I have little to say worth printing.
    May 7, 2015. 08:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Added To BANC At $12.4-Regional Bank Basket Strategy [View instapost]
    SG if you read this please check PM.
    May 7, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Trigger For Reducing Exposure - Its All About Bonds [View article]
    Nice day -- all in all.

    TRN continues to recover and challenged 30 today, (I am short expensive 30 puts, so above 30 is just fine)

    SNC.TO broke out above 45

    SUNE rallied hard on EPS to 28; too bad I sold calls against that one;

    HLF remains strong,

    other stuff pulled back the day after I completely hedged with calls, like SDRL FCX PBR, so that works great -- I'd like to keep the stock and see the calls expire.

    And a nice bounce in the bonds...looking to add to short exposure there....

    just keep chippin' away.....
    May 7, 2015. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba: Low Expectations = Upside Surprise [View article]
    TEDDIE.

    I DON'T HAVE A POSITION EITHER WAY IN BABA.

    ....just to be crystal clear. However I have a view on the company and particularly the risks with this corporate structure -- and am expressing it. Of course that doesn't mean the stock cannot rally.

    You and everyone else is of course free to disagree.

    Good Luck.
    May 7, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba: Low Expectations = Upside Surprise [View article]
    Ikenn,

    As I said above no positon in BABA. Good luck --
    May 7, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba: Low Expectations = Upside Surprise [View article]
    They beat, stock rallies, and my opinion remains completely unchanged on BABA.
    May 7, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Trigger For Reducing Exposure - Its All About Bonds [View article]
    "Nobody "chases" yield by buying German bonds at 0.15% yield."

    T; of course they do. I study human psychology, and that never changes. Buying bonds at any yield, regardless of risk, has become the "thing" to do, just like buying Pets.com was the "thing" to do in 1999.

    There are Countless examples of yield chasing going on, just due to group think. Mexico just sold 100 year! bonds at 4.2%! How can anyone say if Mexico exists in 100 years? US CPI is heading over 2% -- fast. So for less than 2% real yield -- all that risk.
    May 7, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba: Low Expectations = Upside Surprise [View article]
    L,

    It certainly is not a small possibility --

    You are aware the U.S. and China are not the best of buddies, correct? That comes into my risk management.

    It's a gamble. If they execute, nothing bad happens with the structure, and investors pay up for earnings not legally theirs, it works.

    Otherwise, at best you get PE compression as investors refuse to pay up. Why exactly would I pay up when there is a ocean of opportunities without those question marks.
    May 6, 2015. 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Trigger For Reducing Exposure - Its All About Bonds [View article]
    Great day -- actually the last 2 days. A big selloff and my hedges did their job, offset a down market perfectly, and in fact this is a solidly profitable week, even while I remain very substantially long.

    I can understand some would rather wait until the SPX falls 10 or 15%, then think about risk management. I'd rather not give money back, personally, and if markets have that big a fall, as others emotionally react and start selling and hedging, I'll (likely) be bidding for stock and selling puts to those panicking ---
    May 6, 2015. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba: Low Expectations = Upside Surprise [View article]
    Teddie,

    Alibaba (China) --- or Jack Ma's subsidiary -- can change the rules at any time in regards to profit / revenue streams the US entity is entitled to.

    No dicussion. No recourse. In a world of opportunity that = no thanks.

    It's clear investors here have no idea what they are invested in, which makes it gambling, in my view.
    May 6, 2015. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba: Low Expectations = Upside Surprise [View article]
    I've heard this loudly proclaimed, "the next Facebook, the next Amazon , all in one, and the naysayers don't understand"

    Hmmmm.

    This is why all of these misguided souls, during a period with the Nasdaq at ATH's, and the Shanghai index practically doubling, have sold this stock to all time lows.

    Why? Perhap they actually read the IPO documents about the corporate structure, which clearly state, US investors in BABA hold a legal ownership right in....absolutely nothing.

    You heard me right, look it up.

    NP In BABA.
    May 6, 2015. 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Trigger For Reducing Exposure - Its All About Bonds [View article]
    Friends; I'd not be walking; I'd be RUNNING to your bank to lock in a long term mortgage if you have a variable rate --

    In any event we can all prognosticate; at the end of the day I would suggest arguing with the market can get real expensive.
    May 6, 2015. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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