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Robert Duval  

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  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    I was able to play some index futures and recover some of my overnight losses in same. Sold those near nasdaq even and switched to selling treasury futures.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Unreal reversal in nasdaq and multiple components today.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Tack,

    I'll take my chances.

    Believe it or not I'm already mark to market positive on the day, and those unbelievable fills didn't hurt. Amazing considering I came in heavily long.

    Futures are another matter got reamed good. But much smaller scale.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Wildest open I've ever seen. Doubled aapl at. 95, In FB GOOG GILD RDSB all on open. Short volatility.

    If that's not capitulation not sure what is at least for the moment.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Tims, I agree. It's not comfortable but I will be even buying a little more on the open.

    Suggest the leaders:

    AAPL GILD RY RDSB FB GOOG PANW
    Aug 24, 2015. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    This morning Royal dutch Shell yields 8%. I bought this stock friday in reasonable size. It is down another 5%, has paid dividends since before WW2.

    If not now on such a high quality stock, when?

    The idea I always thought was to buy high quality assets on sale. You don't get a huge sale in stock classes without scary stories. So I'm buying here knowing there might be another 30% down but 2-300% up.

    I've bought several names with that potential -- at least 300% upside. But that's because no one wants them now.

    critics want to take the other side on Shell (RDS.B)? Be my guest at these prices.

    I don't care how scary the EM story gets, after an 8 year bear and rock bottom valuations, I am only a buyer. Bring it on.
    Aug 24, 2015. 07:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Danislaw,

    No I did not see this coming to this degree this fast, and on a hard bounce which is extremely likley, I will be trimming risk.
    Aug 24, 2015. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Tack,

    Respectfully,

    I don't see the point of this comment -- where yes I began to get long deep value stuff, that's already been in an extended bear market, on Thursday afternoon. Energy is a modest portion of that but certainly not even a majority.

    On Friday I continued to buy a bit more and late in the afternoon added the leaders like GILD AAPL and DIS expecting a washout and a hard SnapBack rally.

    Clearly I was early and didn't remotely see back, to back, to back (including this morning ) 400 + point declines on the Dow. The Chinese have blown up confidence in their markets by their actions, I underestimated the effects, at least in the short run.

    I will pay that tuition for this mistake along with many I have made.

    I am subject to errors like anyone else, I've had a great year trading stocks and decided to invest some proceeds in what I consider deep value.

    I haven't changed my view about the asset classes I've bought, for the longer run.

    For the record I've gotten trashed on futures contracts I bought way way too early, but my stock losses even in friday were extremely modest. Today perhaps will be worse, but I would buy the same stocks today if I hadn't bought them, as I am trying to look ahead.

    All things considered at the overnight low we are down 250 from SPX ATHS. pretty close to 300 and darn fast.

    I will re-evaluate the situation on the bounce, and if we open here on the cash markets, I will buy a little more stock although I am pretty long as it is.
    Aug 24, 2015. 06:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Obviously Im early looking at futures tonight, dow - another 400.
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Those that are wrong are those that refused to raise any cash 200 SPX points higher.
    Aug 23, 2015. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    After an 8 year EM bear market this smacks of capitulation.
    Aug 23, 2015. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Long term investors shouldn't care less what futures are doing on a Sunday night!

    If you have cash you should WANT an even lower open.
    Aug 23, 2015. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Robert Duval
    Investors clearly not taking Warren's advice, be greedy when others fearful and vis versa. 200 points down everyone is afraid. Energy fear..
    ...is off the scale. Everyone ridiculed me for being cautious on energy from last fall and all this year. Now I'm buying and it's the same..
    ..story. I'm greedy on energy , emerging markets and materials when the crowd loaths them, and fearful of treasuiries, utilities, etc....
    ...on SPX generally, Im even buying high beta -- a little. Loads of fear. Where were these fearful folks when SPX making record highs?..
    ...now SPX 200 points lower -- fast. It might go lower, but while emotional risk is high -- seems high -- actual risk has dropped hard.


    Aug 23, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Readers I'm really pleased with 330! --- great comments from this article. Contributes to my own thought process.

    I'd like to see how this week unfolds -- as I sit on the dock -- and then I'll write a longer follow up, as I digest what's happening, and the character of the coming bounce.

    Watching junk bonds, spreads, oil, China, for stablization.
    Aug 23, 2015. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Tack,

    I don't dispute your points on governments. Perhaps shocks like this will be a catalyst for better fiscal policy. We will see. I still maintain a big infrastructure build is overdue and coming. Only a matter of time.

    Your comments do speak to the entrenched -- and with some good reasons -- negativity out there. Historically markets do not crash from such an atmosphere. Struggle, maybe.

    If leaders turn overtly protectionist I would become much more wary at any price level. We're not there, as of today.
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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