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Robert Duval  

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  • Why There Will Be A Deal For Greece, And Why That Is Bearish For U.S. Exporters And Shale Oil [View article]
    Carl Icahn on CNBC interview saying exactly what I am -- its all about credit bubble and ridiculous yields, sounding a warning.
    Jun 24, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    Danislaw;

    Mine too. Puts and short stock
    Jun 24, 2015. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    WSD;

    Fact of the matter many Investors -- not the author -- are doing what investors always do -- Chase. Chasing IBB near 400 NFLX 700 -- it was 400 April 1rst! -- as smart money like Carl Icahn sells out.

    They all pretend to become experts but all they are doing is chasing what's been hot. It's always been that way, and always will be. Game never changes, nor do the stories of magical riches.

    It's sheer comedy to believe now every Biotech investor went long when the IBB was 100 - not 400 but thats the spin presented.

    Added NFLX to my short book at 695; "documented"
    Jun 24, 2015. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    SHORT NFLX 695, ICHAN IS OUT
    Jun 24, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    "If the standard of skill is simply based who had a recent large gain on some stock or some market, shouldn't we all be admiring and heeding the advice of the Chinese rural investing novices who have the largest returns on planet in the last six months?"

    +1. WSD. And all trumpeted gains ---- and much less trumpeted losses --- included, very, very few beat the S&P 500 total return over any period of time.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be A Deal For Greece, And Why That Is Bearish For U.S. Exporters And Shale Oil [View article]
    Readers,

    One factor impacting the oil market that has been brought to my attention is the impending nuclear deal with Iran -- which would bring substantial supply back onto the market.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking The Incipient Inflation Trade: Signposts, Indicators And Investment Opportunities [View article]
    Readers,

    Regarding this "incipient inflation thesis" -- I'm more cautious now about how fast this will develop, and how long it might take. Certainly the article is intended to encourage some allocation to what are very cheap and out of favour areas.

    I am also very positive on the stocks I have listed, although I currently do not own all of them and have slashed sizing of the reminder.

    On the broader inflation question, I think I'm half right (wage and health care inflation, and a stronger US economy) half wrong / half early (commodity inflation.

    As noted above I have sold my energy exposure and gone short on a different group of US shale and Canadian oil sands stocks. I see crude oil as vunerable in the intermediate term.

    Long term the rise of Indian demand could have a major effect, but this is likely some time off.

    Taking developments as they come.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Iran Nuclear Deal - The Great Oil Price Disruptor [View article]
    Interesting, and one reason I am short the losers at this poker table, US shale and Canadian oil sands.
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    Tony, or anyone,

    If there is no (junior IPO) biotech bubble -- Ive seen that thought (which is my current view) characterized here as nonsense -- why not then buy a selection of recent IPO's?

    More money would be made. Start with AXON.
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    Doc, -- I note that.

    I am further uncomfortable with the references I continually read that although markets are extended, times are comparable now to 1982, 1992 or 2003, on the cusp of hundreds of SPX points imminently about to happen.
    I see many differences witn those time periods.

    Interesting times. It is these unusual influences which I believe are in their waning phases, one reason I am tactically cautious.

    Companies have a history of agressive share buybacks and M&A at poor times.

    We will see, as always.
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2,120 Tuesday: This Time Is Different? [View article]
    "Trading on future potential earnings"

    So true. Check out Air BnB private equity valuation, still rising. 24 billion on projected this year 900 million sales.

    2020 projections are 10 billion sales and 3 billion profits. Pay now for that though.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Fed Hawk Soils Stock Rally Durability [View article]
    Exactly. It sells off, talk it up, runs too hard, talk up rate hikes. Micromanaging.

    The fed will not raise until forced to. Doubtful all year. Don't even listen to fed speeches anymore.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    Doc,

    How do your valuation models account for the Trillion -plus in share buybacks projected this year in US markets. (All time record). Much of this with borrowed money?

    Do you believe that is sustainable with higher rates?
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    My "inner trader" says reverse and go long 30 year treasuries -- so am with TINY size. Higher low.

    Short crude at 61.15 too, TINY size.

    LOng Sept bonds 148 / 27
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SHORT PORTFOLIO TRACKING.  [View instapost]
    Danislaw -- Gee.

    Overbought for sure -- and that is one way to play it -- I'm just going with shorting the weaker players.
    If GILD corrects the whole shabang corrects, confident about that. BIIB was soft today, and of my 6 shorts, 3 ended flat, 3 down good. Of course energy rallied.....
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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