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Robert Duval

 
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  • Herbalife: Time To Look At The Long Side Again [View article]
    QTR;

    you are commenting often how much flack and abuse you are taking for your short thesis and many articles. Is there not allowed one article taking the other side without you attacking it? You have made your case. Allow others to make theirs without interference, in respect.
    Apr 17 07:54 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: High-Yield Contrarian Play Continues To Bottom [View article]
    Bret,

    I respect your writing but disagree with an investment in (NYSE:RIG) for several reasons: note -- no current position but it remains on my "short" watch list.

    1. The dividend paid is not typical for RIG, is not sustainable longer term, in my view, and was initiated as a temporary response to Carl Icahn's activism. I believe the market knows the dividend is temporary, and therefore won't rally.

    2. RIG, has the oldest fleet in the industry, putting pressure on their day rates.

    3. Lower oil prices -- and greater onshore shale supply -- will continue to pressure the offshore industry.

    4. I'm not seeing the comparison with AAPL, remotely. Different kettle of fish.

    5. Violation of major 38 support, since retaken. We will see if that holds, and that is a reason I'm not short, today.

    6. Poor sentiment, hopes of a turnaround, and a high dividend rate, IMO, are not core investment reasons. Money would be better invested in the drill space in an onshore driller.
    Aug 30 03:03 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    FG,

    Perhaps instead of painting everybody cautious TODAY as permanent "doom and gloomers" bearish since the bottom in 2009, show some respect as others have here for the academic work it took to produce this article.

    Seriously, you remind me of those on CNBC who recently trashed Bill Fleckenstein for missing the last 2 months of the rally!

    About the same level of expertise is shown here by your comments as was shown by the CNBC "market experts" publically trashing someone running "real money" for being cautious.

    Of course it's always easier to call everyone else "having the story wrong" instead of answering the logical points, and many divergences, others and myself have brought up, which the bulls have ridiculed....

    As an example -- I have been negative on the small cap IWM all year -- and it is DOWN on the year -- but according to many I have "the story wrong".

    Shall we revisit when the IWM is down 20% from the highs -- in a bear market? Not that far away.....

    IF we are forming some time of Top -- it is a long process -- and we don't know if that's here now or not.

    Of course to the bulls like FG here, even Seth Klarman, who this week warned again we are revisiting 2007, is a gold - loving doom and gloomer...

    I wonder how many CNBC and SA experts without any public track records, have a long term record approaching Mr Klarman's.....oh that's beside the point.

    So if the shoe fits -- enjoy the day...
    Sep 20 10:16 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    T,

    Wilbur Ross, Seth Klarman, Carl Icahn, Jim Rogers, Joel Greenblatt, all billionaires. All short and / or substantial sellers / hedged // cautious for various well documented reasons at this level. All of whom, are normally long only investors. (except Jim Rogers).

    To folks like you and most commenters here, they are simply yahoo finance "pundits". That is too much.

    How much money have you or anyone here made compared to them?

    I would rather listen carefully to what an esteemed group of investing billionaires have to say, in conjunction with my own analysis, than a bunch of nameless SA pundits likely trading their 100 share lots.

    None of you would likely even have the remotest chance of getting hired to analyze anything for these gentlemen.

    But we are supposed to dismiss what they say without thought and call them "pundits, naysayers, and doubters".

    No offense to anyone but the overall comment stream speaks volumes.

    The ducks are quacking loudly, and they are getting fed!
    Jul 12 01:55 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    JS

    Remember we NEED the pink Pom Pom wavers to form a top --- bears publically capitulating and CNBC trashing cash holders.

    Evidence of the DUMB money in full force -- people rushing to buy BABA at any price -- a stock I suspect few fully understand well ----

    Personally I don't judge what you write, as some of the trolls do, by the past history and what the SPX did after every article. I read and weigh the logic, appreciate the effort and research.

    Troll are a fact of writing. Don't get discouraged when others try to tear down.
    Sep 20 10:57 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    That's respect Praveen, shooting off without even reading the article.

    Wilbur Ross has stated he is selling 6 times more than he is buying. He's a billionaire, btw due to his investing.

    I'm sure though he is simply a frustrated bear to folks like you and FG, and both of you have had much more success than smart money like Ross, Icahn, and several others, who are openly cautious here.

    Ps. Praveen, exactly how much money have you made investing? I've made a lot -- and I am positioned short here.
    Jul 12 01:23 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Time To Look At The Long Side Again [View article]
    Great Article; except it would not take a year to hit $80.00 in the event of a benign FTC conclusion. It will happen instantly, either by an overnight announcement or a stop trading halt.
    Apr 17 07:46 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Herbalife Long's Very Last Argument [View article]
    At risk of repeating my reasons -- as I've previously posted -- I have a conviction long on this stock. At this point the risk is all to the shorts. I expect a benign FTC outcome, obviously.
    Mar 19 01:14 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's Portfolios Don't Reward Investors For The Added Risks [View article]
    I truly don't get the point of an article simply slandering another investor.

    Funnily enough, I think at this time in the cycle, BRK is about to move into a period where it will outperform the SPX, and I am buying the stock.
    Mar 6 08:17 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Analyzing Through The Speculation [View article]
    Also, I think afterwards the SEC will be taking a hard look at issues like inappropriate lobbying, insider trading, payoffs to politicans, ect.

    I'm sure they can't be too impressed by the influence peddling to manipulate a stock. Trading records will be examined.

    The shorts will get slammed hard by what will likely happen. Lawsuits galore in the future. Against writers too for defamation.

    I can assure you -- articles, comments and even posts have been recorded from SA for future possible legal action.

    You cannot willingly defame someone, like a Herbalife executive or even the company, and insinuate criminal activity, without proof!

    Hope those who have done so are sleeping well.
    Apr 21 06:58 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Herbalife Long's Very Last Argument [View article]
    Speculation on these articles is rampant. I'd actually like to hear a defensible argument for such blanket thoughts as:

    Icahn is selling;
    FTC will shut the company;
    Executives will be arrested;
    Even that Herbalife is a Pyramid scheme.

    I love being long a stock where these thoughts are the common belief out there. Good luck to the shorts and I would bet on Carl Icahn over Bill Ackman 10 times out of 10. Regardless I would be long the stock here.
    Mar 19 01:27 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Analyzing Through The Speculation [View article]
    Hello Ken,

    I respect the tone in which you've responded, so I will respond appropriately.

    I've been in this business for 15 years as a professional, Ive done thousands of trades. Usually I'm pretty agnostic. This time, the barely veiled slander, accusations of criminal conduct thrown around, dirty tricks with payoffs, letters written and passed alonged to be signed by Senators unchallenged and unreviewed -- frankly makes me sick. It's become a circus. Writing a thesis wasn't enough, but all kinds of questionable practices and political pressure afterwards.

    I both cannot believe none of the above hasn't been investigated, and if I was running the FTC, I'd be right annoyed at how this all landed on my desk.

    Personally I will take pleasure in the short squeeze to come. The shorts who choose to libel and slander, and follow someone blindly, deserve what's coming. All IMO.

    IMO this trade is between an army of weak follower shorts, and deep pocketed longs. Guess who's likely to win.
    Apr 21 08:17 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: All Eyes On Earnings, Venezuela And A Distributor Documentary [View article]
    This has become so repetitive --- QTR I don't believe there are any weak longs that can be scared out of the stock.

    In my professional opinion, the reason the stock is rising on low volume, is simple -- there is no size offer, and no sellers in any size.

    You have the right to write articles -- but it seems all meaningless until the regulatory agencies rule.

    Long HLF
    Apr 28 08:23 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Analyzing Through The Speculation [View article]
    Herb's,

    Exactly. Must be so frustrating they can't knock the stock down.
    Apr 21 06:49 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Time To Look At The Long Side Again [View article]
    If anyone is short this stock on the belief HLF is comparable to Madoff, my long position looks that much better.
    Apr 17 08:01 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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