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Robert Duval  

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  • Linn Energy's Brilliant Move Is Bullish [View article]
    I don't know the qualifications of those writing these bullish articles, and how long they have been long, but I wouldn't risk a dime on this company.

    Along with others, I've been correctly cautious if not bearish on not only this company but the entire US shale sector since last fall. I have tried to short LINE but could not get a borrow. I am short others in the sector.

    The company IMO has poor management and financials, in a sector in a bear market, tied to a commodity in a severe bear market, competing with other, stronger competitors.

    It's a horrible situation that will likely get worse before it gets better.
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Thanks all for the new followers -- welcome --- and for all the great comments.

    I don't claim to have it all figured out by any means. I've taken many losses over 17 years. The key is -- keep losses small. Then one can outperform as an individual investor.
    Aug 1, 2015. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    James,

    Spot on.

    "And quite a few SA authors were only too happy to assist Linn management in selling this disaster to unwitting "income" investors.

    Those SA authors should be ashamed of themselves."


    And not a Mea culpa to be found from this group -- nor a defense.

    It is very, very tempting to requote what certain people said, and the associated personal attacks to those expressing caution on LINE, at far higher prices.

    I will refrain as not to sink to that level.
    Aug 1, 2015. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Wish I knew. I can only manage risk, not predict with exact timing.
    Aug 1, 2015. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1MCol85

    For the technicians out there...more charts
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Not Selling Hot Dogs Anymore [View article]
    101,

    Who is going to buy MU at $40?

    Please explain.
    Aug 1, 2015. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Reader,

    Appreciate the respectful discourse.

    I am far more cautious on valuations than on the actual economy.

    2 different animals in my view. ---
    Aug 1, 2015. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Not Selling Hot Dogs Anymore [View article]
    Gotta be the shorts knocking it down, Bob....I reshorted MU myself yesterday.

    My one tiny order sparked millions of shares of selling.
    Aug 1, 2015. 03:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1DZC1mk

    Secular bear case. Sobering, well documented read worth reflecting on.
    Aug 1, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! June 2015 Update [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Mark just caught up with you. I am quite defensive at this time, and semiconductors are one area. I remain short MU, and others.

    I am short TSLA as well and I note your excellent comment on agressive accounting. I believe this will come back as an issue one day.

    On biotech take a look at VRX. Again agressive accounting.

    Regards Robert.
    Aug 1, 2015. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Learner,

    Precisely Timing corrections is a mugs game, and I don't give weight to anyone who does.

    All I can assess is general conditions and risks.
    Aug 1, 2015. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Bond And Equity Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 7/31/15 [View instapost]
    SG,

    Excellent commentary, about Half of which I understand. (Ie synthetic floaters -- not)

    Great outline on LINE. IMO they have weak management, above other issue. Always does seem to come to that.

    CPE is an excellent name for the turn, but doubt their will be too much discount on their bonds. Never know. Check them out if you like.

    Love the term bond ghouls.

    I remain blown away by the depth of your knowledge base sir.

    Consider writing a book. This is in my personal plans.
    Aug 1, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    On sentiment further:

    People see the negative comments / commentary / popularity of certain articles as a definitive "tell" on the sentiment of most US investors. This is a gross error IMO.

    Yes "crash" articles are popular -- like watching a train wreck -- I notice this article has less "hits" than other articles because I deliberately left out "crash" and see that as unlikely. I've attempted to paint a balanced picture.

    Observers are making the mistake of transferring the beliefs of a extremely tiny group of those hoping for a crash (and a noisy vocal group on the Internet) and a somewhat larger but still extremely small group like me who see yellow flags and are advocating caution, to the millions upon millions of mostly passive investors clear allocation data shows are "all in" and pretty complacent at this point.

    Multiple, independent, hard data sources confirm actual allocations, at near record highs to stocks for US investors as a percentage of assets.

    This isn't sentiment and isn't up for debate.

    I've been at the game 17 years. All I have to offer is my experience which I share and an extremely successful actual track record (this year is my best ever)

    Be careful automatically using myself or others as contrary indicators, simply because we see cautionary signals. Some of us, humbly, are the smart money.

    If not listening to that, consider warnings like Carl Icahn's carefully. A billionaire with 60 years in capital markets. (Many other billionaires are cautious now too)

    Consider these words, carefully.
    Aug 1, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Lower Your Allocation To Riskier Assets [View article]
    "And retirees, as well as those with limited cash on hand, cannot buy quality assets lower if they haven't raised the cash to do so."

    Awesome comment, and the resistance to this questions to so called negative sentiment out there.
    Aug 1, 2015. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Readers, additional Saturday thoughts. I am reading more and more a lot of commentary that makes me cautious, as it speaks to the investor mindset.

    Here's some examples -- and just forget, totally forget no matter how high or low, the AAII weekly numbers for all time -- not because they seem to be a contrary indicator, but because of the extreme volatility and low sample size --- 300! people weekly answer this survey and they are typically multi - millionaires.

    Consider this before giving much weight to AAII as a contrary lead. 300 people. Let's kill and bury this popular indicator -- either direction.

    "Semiconductors are no longer a a market tell, neither are transports, junk bonds energy or (Dr) copper". (Yes I've read all this! )

    Really? When it looks ugly just say it doesn't count? Maybe. But we should at least pay attention to these time tested indicators. Maybe transports are fine. But why aren't they flying with crashing energy prices, their biggest expense? Just asking......

    "Earnings aren't important anymore, it's unique (users, visitors, eyeballs, subscriptions) that matter". (ANALYST firms are saying this! )

    Doesn't this have a whiff of tech bubble chatter 1999 in it? Just asking.

    "Valuations are fine because interest rates (will always) be low"

    How do you know? And why is everyone just fixated on government rates, when it's corporate and junk rates that really matter? Just asking.

    Here's a good one! "Valuations ect aren't expensive -- they were so much crazier in 2000, so they are cheap now" (I'm reading this everywhere!)

    That's our new definition of normal or elevated? The craziest period in modern history with the baby boomers in peak investment and earnings years in love with stocks, and that's where we "must" return? Sorry with todays investment dynamic, I'm not seeing it anytime soon, and holding out for that as a sell signal is likely to get real expensive. Just my thought.

    To finish, SPX price to book is 2.88. ATH was 5.0 in 2000. Buffett says he's a buyer of BRK at 1.2 all day long. Not saying remotely we have to return to 1.2 or even close -- but this is an elevated ratio.

    Consider this.
    Aug 1, 2015. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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