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Robert Duval  

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  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Doc,

    The fact you are playing UVXY at all from the buy side tells me volumes about your trading.
    May 24, 2015. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Ken,

    Where do you see value these days then?
    May 24, 2015. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Well.....I look at a lot of markets. Fascinating how Brazil was a rock star with EWZ at 90.

    2/3 lower, everyone hates it.

    Many sector examples, too. Everyone loves biotech now. Don't recall seeing that 3 years ago.

    It's all performance chasing by the vast, vast majority of fund managers.
    May 24, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Yes....but not linked in perfect harmony.

    I just wrote a new post. In the intermediate term, does the US stock market want more,

    A( zero rates)

    B) (robust growth)

    In other words -- if 10 year rates return to 2% spread over inflation -- 4% that is --- how does the stock market respond?

    And "stock market" is pretty generic. As an example, to make my point, Over the next 5 years, which asset class is likely to give a greater % return .....2 choices ----

    (IBB) biotech, (Wonderful fundamental news)

    Or (EWZ) Brazil? (Terrible fundamental news)

    (No position in either)

    As I've written I consider asset allocation a far more important conversation than predicting the next correction.

    I have a theory that most who repeatedly proclaim terms like "secular bull" (of course in hindsight) and how right they have been (in hindsight) have a rather harder time telling us which sectors to invest in.

    No so easy to indentify the next secular bull.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 24, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel,

    The stock market and the economy are 2 different animals.
    May 24, 2015. 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel,

    In my example I assess the odds of X happening as much greater than random, however I can't give a timeline.
    May 23, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel,

    My take is slightly different, in that in my article I kind of see an X - Y happening.

    This would be -- if 10 year real rates rise to the historical level over inflation, this will trigger a rate based correction.
    May 23, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Are Clearly Flashing Yellow [View article]
    The real irrationality is in bonds. Who are the investors lending money all over the place at negative real yields? How many understand what "real yield" even is?
    May 22, 2015. 08:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid - May Market Update, And The Uselessness Of Grand Predictions [View instapost]
    Tack,

    Apparently you didn't read the link.

    Sales of long bonds are running 5 fold from this period last year.

    I made no predictions on rates, either, except to quote the historical spread over inflation.

    Now if you think a 2% 10 year is a great deal with a rising CPI, be my guest.
    May 22, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    Reel, James, up or down then next week? Higher or lower by end of June ----

    And why -------
    May 22, 2015. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid - May Market Update, And The Uselessness Of Grand Predictions [View instapost]
    Oil has stalled. Trannies haven't rebounded (yet).

    Core CPI 1.8% Y/Y. (Higher M/M).

    10 year yield....2.2%. 40 points real yield. Historical is 200 bps, so we should have a 4% 10 year and 5-6% 30 year.

    And the arguement is this change won't affect stock valuations whatsoever?

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Corporations selling like mad, long bonds:
    May 22, 2015. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CPI inches up 0.1% in April [View news story]
    ....and 10 year yield 2.21%. That's 40 bps of real yield.

    Sound good to you? (Historical is 200bps)
    May 22, 2015. 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CPI inches up 0.1% in April [View news story]
    New core inflation -- less energy and health care.
    May 22, 2015. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid - May Market Update, And The Uselessness Of Grand Predictions [View instapost]
    New Longs: (pro inflation)

    CF, (320)
    DE (93)

    Why: Ag products are the most out of favour, per my data, since 1991. In addition, fundamentally I am looking for more inflation - focused assets to outperform, and Technically, both stocks are breaking out. I am ultimately looking for a big move higher in Corn and Soybeans as well, but It hasn't happened, as yet.

    These 2 stocks join my oil plays (PBR) and (SDRL) and metal plays (IVN.TO) as part of the same theme.

    NEW SHORTS:

    CMG, (630)
    GRUB. (40.40)

    Why? Opposite to above. I would also short (SHAK) but borrowing is ridiculous due to small float. Higher wages, input costs, high valuations. Both are acting weak.

    The Trannies remain extremely weak even while oversold and on lower oil. Its definitely something to watch. Bonds are also weak even with lower oil and stronger Euro bonds. Core CPI will now be on everyone's radar.

    exited HLF position; calls and stock, 51.30 - 52.00
    May 22, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Are Clearly Flashing Yellow [View article]
    The transports, breadth, CPI, and bonds, are increasingly a yellow flag for me. While still holding core long positions, (largely geared to increasing inflation expectations and growth) Today I've ramped up my short hedges via more QQQ puts, TLT puts, and am laying on a few short positions in areas that will be hurt by higher inflation / wages / input costs.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 22, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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