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Robert Duval  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]

    The other question is does the US allow them to do so without calling them a "currency manipulator"

    Or is the US the only one allowed to "manipulate" their currency?
    Aug 30, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]

    I'm curious why you reference 6% for Chinas growth rate. Their quoted rate is 7%. Do you not believe their stats?

    IF not, then where do you derive 6%?
    Aug 30, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Babies And Bathwater [View article]
    That's hilarious. I've had the same issue at times myself, though usually it's just a raised eyebrow cast my way.
    Aug 30, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    To follow up on that "ugly" section -- there is very, very little ever published by leading contributors on simple Risk management, as opposed to "there is no evidence the economy is falling into recession." Yes, we get that. Yes, I also get, the market is far more than the economy!

    Then why assuming everyone gets that, do the overwhelming majority of investors not even approach the annual SPX total return? Simple.

    No one, other than a few like myself, counsel them to raise some cash during an overly complacent, greedy market, for corrective periods like this. Those who did, rode this out a lot more calmly, and perhaps bought a little.

    How do I know it was an overly complacent market? Many indicators prior I reference on my own work, but exhibit "A" is the level of panic we just had as proof -- where panicked over leveraged investors dumped at the market.

    If the market was as fearful and cautious as the perma - Bulls, never sell, like to represent, (which include a number of writers, now claiming they expected this -- after the fact!) no way we would have had this mini - crash. Buying would be immediate and agressive on any dip.

    Respectfully, everyone is responsible for their own allocations and risk management, at the end of the day. It doesn't teach the right attitude to blame ones lack of success on HFT's, thin options markets, poor market order fills (what do you expect??) during fast markets, or anything else but ones own decisions.

    My advice. Stop blaming, and take responsibility.
    Aug 30, 2015. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]

    Correct -- it's called a free market.

    The people who write this kind of thing on option spreads are the same that expect markets to be at ATH's when the next US recession is declared, and that there will be unlimited liquidity to let them out on the resulting down days.

    I don't think so.
    Aug 30, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    SU, PLUS 1.

    A little too much focus on efficient market theory, which I don't subscribe to, and not enough on confidence , capital flows, and correlation of markets.

    Everyone was saying at SPX 2150, "China's not an issue" as well. The complacency at that point made me very cautious, but risk at 2150 and risk at 1850 are 2 diffferent animals.

    Well something shook confidence, so I guess gee, it matters, and it sure moved prices, didn't it.
    Aug 30, 2015. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "Felix is out of the market due to the volatility"

    -----Yep there are cries from some quarters for a tight option market upon Monday's opening? Maybe those market makers felt the same way.

    Most ridiculous thing I've ever read -- an academic comment, likely from someone who obviously never traded on a futures or options pit.

    There is absolutely no obligation for anyone to make a "fair" or tight market in derivative contracts in such conditions, and there is nothing unfair about it.

    My response would be the same as when people complained on the futures floor, where I traded for several years, to "unfair" markets in volatile conditions, (meaning then, as now, no I'm not going to let you out at your price) ----

    --""-- don't think it's fair, you are welcome to improve the bid / offer yourself. Be my guest.""

    Others like to say "market makers have an unfair advantage". They would say in return, "buy a seat on the CBOE, their in the hundreds of thousands each".

    I'm sure I got hosed for minor amounts even on major stocks I bought Monday morning. It's part of the game in fast market conditions.

    I've written in the past, although I didn't call specifically for this kind of event -- no one can -- when you get the level of complacency and leverage we have had going on, corrective events like this turn out be not so nice -- because liquidity disappears. You can't regulate liquidity!

    People writing this stuff probably support China's arresting of short sellers, too. Selective capitalism. You either vote for free markets, or you don't.
    Aug 30, 2015. 08:18 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bailing Out Of Brazil [View article]

    Her approval rate is under 10%. Protests. Just saying.
    Aug 29, 2015. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Speaks - We Learn Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria' [View article]


    Good luck to you.
    Aug 29, 2015. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Is Not Necessarily Great For Freeport-McMoRan's Stock [View article]
    Comments are funny, critiquing a billionaire.

    Maybe on energy and materials, uncle Carl has both more future vision, and can take more pain, than most of you commenting.

    Unlike most, perhaps he can buy low. That's how it's supposed to work, isn't it?
    Aug 29, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire returns to energy sector with $4.5B stake in Phillips 66 [View news story]
    Not a piker, either. I thought I traded big at times, uh, no........
    Aug 29, 2015. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Speaks - We Learn Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria' [View article]
    Hmm, Tony. Referring to this statement:

    "Guessing oil hitting the bottom, I bought OIL 2 times several days ago and it is up over 20%. Two days ago, RSI told me the market was far oversold, I bought 4 value stocks and they ranged from 2% to 10% return in 2 days. Sold one as I believe the market is still risky."

    I'm simoly curious, as you write a lot of similiar comments, followed by a recommendation to your own book, what these contribute to the SA community. No thesis, no specifics, only a reference to a book.

    If the books are so irrelevant to you, why push them with every comment?

    Any proof about your oil trades you can post right here, or in an instapost. I didn't ask for that. Why no comment about oil whatsoever anywhere until well after a large price run-up?

    I'm just curious.
    Aug 29, 2015. 04:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not A Game The Federal Reserve Wants [View article]
    Couldn't agree more with this article.

    The Fed needs to wean markets off it's dependence, express confidence in the economic trajectory, and say it will raise when economic benchmarks are met.


    Then shut up.
    Aug 29, 2015. 02:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bailing Out Of Brazil [View article]
    Tack / Bret,

    If Brazil doesn't go the Argentina / venezula route, at some point it's a compelling buy -- with a new govt.
    Aug 29, 2015. 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After A Tumultuous August, What Will September Bring? [View article]
    Bret, I agree with and support the approach taken in the article (although I did buy the dip myself)

    Here are my thoughts from my own posting ahead of my next article:

    Folks, brief preview of the article update.

    I'm a bit worn out as this all happened on my vacation at a cabin where I was to rest after a hectic year to date. So much for that.

    I have mixed feelings, being rather self - critical, about my performance. I've traded this year very well on stocks but poorly on futures, especially this period where I took a good loss. Fortunately stocks are a much larger weighting.

    I haven't had time to think about the future market outlook too much, as I just reacted tactically to the panic -- that's what that was -- and I always buy panics.

    Now I'm not sure any of my 4 horseman risks have been resolved, so it will be important to monitor all of them going forward. Ie if the SPX rallies, and possibly to new ATH's as per post 1998 asian financial crisis -- my current base case ---, other markets must also perform and recover in line, to have confidence.

    Those would include, without any one being a certain tell:

    Small caps / breadth,
    Energy -- at least stable, and energy bonds,
    China's market and currency -- stable,
    Junk and corporate bonds,
    Treasuries -- stable, even if with lower prices.
    Lower volatility.

    Further agressive devaluations, debt defaults, any trade actions, are not a positive.

    So I am cautiously constructive here, but a bit wary in certain respects. Problems may appear in the fall or 2 years from now. I admit what I don't know. Well behaved rates are critical for stability.

    I lean towards a 1998 shock until proven otherwise.

    As the market rallies I will resume shorting what I consider overvalued or broken business model stocks, stocks I have shorted before, to bring my total exposure down.

    It may be that this cycle ends with a massive inflationary spike into commodities. I don't know, but would advise every investor to have some inflation protection in this way, and even in gold to a very minor degree. These assets are cheap in any regard.

    I urge investors to re -raise cash to a 20% level as we rally, as well, and control exposure to high PE stocks.
    Aug 29, 2015. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment