Seeking Alpha

Robert Duval's  Instablog

Robert Duval
Send Message
Full time Investor / Trader, 17 years. Specialist in risk management, with intermediate trade focus, US stocks, international ETFs and commodities. Believe in correlation of markets, must understand all markets to trade one well. Self taught through continuous study of myself and other... More
View Robert Duval's Instablogs on:
  • Timeless Investment Principles I Follow...just For My Followers.....

    Shhhhh don't tell anyone else -- here are the secrets: (highly technical)

    1. cut losses

    2. cut losses

    3. see 1 and 2.

    4. Divorce ego from investment choices and mistakes. Losses are part of the game. Be wrong, OK, don't stay wrong.

    5. contra the herd, but don't get trampled.

    6. know yourself. Well. Invest with a style that is you.

    7. see #6.

    8. know what's going on worldwide even to invest domestically. It matters.

    9. be a permanent student of all factors. Study your mistakes.

    10. credit leads.

    11. be fearless when others are fearful, and vis versa

    12. buy good management, that means politically too when internationally investing.

    13. stay within your area of competence

    14. defense wins football games and in investing too, long term.

    15. have your own vision, don't be a follower.

    16. don't chase what's most popular. Be uncomfortable.

    17. Be humble; stay humble

    18. See # 1 again. Really.

    19. Buy Business's, assets, Management, not stocks.

    20. Work harder than anyone else. Believe in yourself.

    Jul 25 1:49 PM | Link | 5 Comments
  • PORTFOLIO TRACKER As Of August 25th

    UPDATED August 25th, comments only. Spreadsheet will be properly updated when I return from away and can do it.

    Summary:

    NOTE almost all SHORTS CLOSED on market "mini crash". RDS, CPE AND OTHER energy longs added. Weak dollar Emerging and Metals longs added. NUMEROUS other longs added, market leaders, like APPL GILD DIS GOOG FB PANW RDS, others

    At A very heavy long exposure, agressively bought starting Thursday then quite assertive Friday afternoon and Monday's open. Standing pat now.

    ******************************************

    Here is the updated spreadsheets, with open returns listed: (when I return next week)

    LONG positions

    STOCKSYMBOLENTRY % GAIN / LOSS
      LONGAug 16th 2015OPEN POSITION
          
    Fairfax IndiaFFXDF10.7810.6-1.67 
    HDFC BANKHDB57.8562.898.71 
          
    HOLCIMHMCLY15.513.57-12.45 
    MBT TELMBT7.57.854.67 
    CALLEONCPE7.28.6620.28 
    birchcliffBIR6.25.87-5.32 
    SUN EDSUNE14.514.681.24 
          
    CONSOLCNX13.513-3.70 
    VIETNAMVNM17.816.94-4.83 
    Fairfax FinancialFFH.TO665.8618-7.18 
    Bank of ABAC Warrants6.26.911.29 
          
    BHBBHB35.6433.45-6.14 
    NORBOARDNDB25.8422.82-11.69 
    dream OfficeD.UN.TO22.522.50.00 
    dream industrialDIR.TO8.18.21.23 
    ROYALRY.TO75.375.390.12 
    Agneicoaem32.232.20.00 
    turquiosetrq4.254.23-0.47 
    tecktck.b9.29.1-1.09 
    freeportfcx10.210.240.39 
    phillpinesephe36.536.50.00 
          
          

    Short positions

    SHORT ENTRIES  SHORTS 
      (original)   
     SYMBOLENTRYAug 16th 2015% GAIN / LOSS
      SHORT OPEN POSITION
          
          
    YelpYELP44.7526.6440.47 
    GrubhubGRUB37.531.2216.75 
    teslaTSLA2752557.27 
          
    ALIBABABABA82.575.198.86 
    JDJD29.527.337.36 
    SINASINA40400.00 
    netflixnflx120125.4-4.50 
          
    AMERICANAAL41.542.67-2.82 
    UNITEDUAL5758.35-2.37 
    micronmu17.517.221.60 
    containertcs1616.2-1.25 
          

    Note I do not advocate shorting. This is an actual portfolio with open positions and returns listed from its original creation date June 15th, that I have kept updated. Trades subject to change.

    Jul 22 3:05 PM | Link | 10 Comments
  • Get Out Of China A Shares (And Anything China) A Classic Bubble Market Facing A Inevitable Crash

    China, and in particular the China "A" shares, have been THE bull market story of 2015, in the face of slowing growth and exploding debt levels.

    Now it not just the following parabolic charts I will show you that call for extreme caution, its the character of the rally and who is playing it.

    Rather than make my own case, I'll simply share the charts and information via posted links, and the reader can decide whether this period rhymes with any other, and then briefly conclude with the current US story and possible effects.

    First, (NYSEARCA:ASHS), China A small cap ETF, and Shenzen 100 index --- Wow.

    ASHS Chart

    ASHS data by YCharts

    ^SS399004 Chart

    ^SS399004 data by YCharts

    China New Retail trading accounts Opened:

    And Here:

    China Debt to GDP:

    CNBC video about Chinese Farmer Day - Traders:

    Hanergy Film Crash:

    Alibaba fake transactions and customers: (NYSE:BABA)

    Vipshop accounting and misrepresentation: (NYSE:VIPS)

    Sound like a prudent investment situation or a bubble? You decide.

    Turning to the US, I'm reading that the low numbers of bullish investors on the AAII survey mean individual Investors are not participating in the bull market, the survey is a contrary indicator, and so there is no near term risk of a US stock market correction.

    I call these assumptive, unsubstantiated statements without looking at the data in context. Lets examine not pundit opinions, but hard factual data.

    Its really distortive for SA to allow pundits to publish commentary completely out of context, without documented links.

    First; individual investors exposure to stocks is the highest since just prior to the 2000 major top, and higher than the 2000 highs. This isn't opinion, its Fact:

    (click to enlarge)

    Next, Here's some information about that AAII report, that strongly suggests AAII investors actual lean towards "smart money" -- they are NOT contrary indicators. Remember this is a very small survey --

    "Despite a market that has held up relatively well, only 20% of
    these supposedly mom-and-pop investors are expecting higher
    prices over the next six months. Shockingly, this is the 2nd lowest
    reading since the bull market began.

    But here's the thing - these folks can be anyone. It is an
    anonymous online survey with a tiny sample size compared to
    the population it's attempting to measure. They are also
    dedicated investors, who show some evidence of learning from
    past behavior. In other words, past market peaks have seen
    them becoming less and less bullish as prices rise.
    So...are these actually "smart money" investors?

    From the Data.....The correlation to stock prices is clear. The more bullish mom and pop were, the better stocks performed going forward, and vice-versa." (source -- Sentimenttrader.com)

    So much for hanging one's bullish hat on that theory.

    What about Margin Debt -- which the Perma- bulls continue to tell us is meaningless as it can rise to ever - increasing heights: Maybe.

    Here's a chart the bulls don't want you to focus on -- Market Cap to GDP -- approaching the 2000 highs:

    Now as an aside -- I've noted the Bulls LOVED to quote Doug Short as he tracked the "secular bull' -- Funny he isn't nearly as popular lately with these cautious comments!

    Here's where we really are -- not a place of prudence and fear, but a atmosphere of pure speculation: Source -- Barrons:

    "Meanwhile, according to an article in Investment News, brokerage firms are pushing securities-backed loans through independent investment advisors. For years, the big-name wire houses have marketed these loans to their own customers with the pitch that they're a cheap source of credit to fund big purchases, such as yachts or houses, without disturbing their investment portfolios.

    Of course, the firms get to make money on the loans and keep the assets from leaving the building, not a trivial consideration when asset size instead of transactions increasingly drives brokers' compensation. As for the customers, Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management was quoted as calling these loans the "rich man's subprime."

    Never mind the real mania these days -- Private Equity Valuations:

    (and more relevant how Post IPO investors are assuming great risk)

    Uber is now valued at 41 Billion, as one example.

    How about Junior Biotech?

    Prudently valued market or atmosphere of Speculation, low interest rates and the greater Fool theory?

    You decide.

    I'm not saying the broader S&P 500 cannot move higher in the long run, or that the US economy has many positives at this time (which I've detailed in prior writings)

    However in an interconnected world, one should be watching areas like China, Interest Rates and Private equities, to fully assess the risks in their investments.

    Best wishes to all investors.

    Short ,

    Tags: ASHS
    Jun 13 1:07 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • Brief update -- got to 130% net long on Tuesday -- trimmed some high beta, sold a few calls, short airlines, now 105% net long.
    1 day ago
  • Tremendous fear remains through extreme forward volatility. Sell $UVXY, buy $XIV, short puts, sell calls against positons, and wait.
    2 days ago
  • Best intermediate investments: certain $EEM countries and Canadian stocks. Best trades: certain commodities, short volatility, long Can$$
    3 days ago
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.