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Robert Dydo

 
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  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    They use ocean ship lines, which is a very cost-efficient endeavour. Overall shipping costs are about 3 cents/watt and they are claimed on Opex. I would say 1 cent would be probably the top saving I see. Of course, the cost of moving material in, to build a module from Taiwan cells also offers some fractional savings.
    As far where is that money saved from oil going? We will need at least 3 to 6 months to understand the savings, by then oil can be back up. Like anything these days they trading oil derivatives, most of it being sold has not been even extracted.
    Operations are being curtail, at those prices,so it is hard to save as everyone including producers is trying to shield from losses.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    While I expect more to the story than Canadian being one of the bidders for Recurrent, you need to understand a premise of tariffs and implications. Tariffs are on importation of modules with Chinese and Taiwanese solar cells or cells themselves. Unless you are assuming something else purchase project developer does not do anything for tariffs. Here, Canadian's facilities in Ontario will come handy, when using cells from China (based on 2012 tariff) or elsewhere.
    Canadian can purchase an Indian semiconductor company to make cells and modules in India, particularly with large government-supported projects being formulated. The company will have around $800M in liquid assets to boost its growth
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    go to this http://bit.ly/1ySpfGu
    page 11. On the right side you will find a number 187.1MW left this includes all EPC projects, plus 4.6MW left from the percentage of the recognition.
    386.9-187.1= 199.8MW. Now put back the 4.6MW in. 204.4MW are left as own projects, 182.9MW are left as EPC.
    Page 12 the US. it is list 84.1MW pipeline of projects (right side) top left side shows 105.4MW, pipeline. So we have 21.3MW floating between two numbers..
    84.1MW lists West Antelope of 28.4MW.
    Q4 estimate:
    70MW own, 40MW EPC 28.4MW US West Antelope shown sold.
    What is left for 2015
    204.4-70=134.4MW (2MW due to assuming 206was a full number) own projects
    182.9MW-40MW=142.9MW EPC for 2015.
    84.1-28.4=55.7MW plus 21.3MW (floating) 76-77MW for 2015.
    If I add back the CAD pipeline, 134.4MW plus 142.9MW equals to be around 277.3MW
    All those numbers show COD which is commercial operation date. The date has nothing to do when project is being sold. Projects can be finished in 2014 but sold in 2015. If this is how you looking at this, it is clearly wrong. Sales announcements are made separately.
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar to buy Recurrent Energy as Sharp steps back from solar [View news story]
    Not too worry, Greentech goofed telling that it was sold then they tried to pretend like someone else made a mistake.
    Sharp is considering the sale, but they have not made a final decision.
    Sounds like winning bid was maybe too low for their liking
    http://reut.rs/1w4cvKu
    Dec 7, 2014. 10:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    CSIQ is buying Recurrent Energy from Sharp. All pipeline replacement issues should be answered. Scale is one thing, which provides huge returns to profitable companies
    http://reut.rs/1BqnlPz
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    one needs to separate solar vs. oil as an operational aspect and what market does with this relationship. Oil and solar operationally do not correlate, but the market, individuals managers of energy funds follow scripted distributions of holdings, making it to follow. Solar stocks react to everything negative about China, SEC judges blocking audit firms, utility companies in Japan refusing new applications for grid connections. If there is something out there to be scarred abut solar stocks double the fear in their trading. I do not write my articles for traders, but long term investors. If one feels market is right would have sold CSIQ at $2 in 2012. This is why I never or hardly follow markets.
    Nov 30, 2014. 07:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Marginal Player Buffeted By Currency Effects [View article]
    Yes both Bulgaria and Romania changed their FiT programs. Also, they have very fragile PV programs this is why nobody is investing in those countries currently.
    They cannot sell those things for 2 years now, because of it. Those plants are forever in their ownership and they produce very little energy income check 20-F for details.
    Also, the return on those projects is based on the amount of borrowing. I think the equity left is minimal. Just check what they sold in China and what they got back for GM and cash. First of all they pay profit for tolling to the vendor. Second when ASP changes, they COGS remain the same, thus OEM strips GM from them, when ASP does go down. They cannot improve that as someone else has producing lines. You would think they would be gaining in the US and EU on volumes as they must operate outside of the tariff and a minimum quota. It does not happen. Poly has a positive operating income, but it is not net income positive business for them. I think they are running poly at the current cost being equal to market pricing and take the deduction on depreciation, which shows positive cash flow.Their R&D spent is 4 times per quarter of any Chinese company. I think they are hiding O&M for poly plants with this figure. You can only do so much with the wafer, but it is not going to justify a $50M a year spending, which they have done in TTM.They lose around $20M a quarter in cash, by the time Q2 shows up, they will be out of money, in my view.
    Nov 30, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Marginal Player Buffeted By Currency Effects [View article]
    I would be careful to consider downstream business as meaningful for SOL. It seems that the company had made many strategy changes, leaving this area in China, as it could not support own business and probably had liquidity issues, before obtaining short term financing. Some of those projects on book are with low IRR and pay little to nothing. Bulgarian and Romanian ones due to FiT changes are not great returns. I doubt they would get $20M in return for their existing portfolio.
    Missing 90MW of modules from the Q3 guidance and stating they will be added to Q4 and still lowering the guidance for the fourth quarter, is a warning that they cannot produce profit on volume. GM tells they cannot produce profit on operational efficiency and OEM business is stripping profits from them. They have no money, but yet put out $13M in R&D every quarter.
    Overall too much risk there.
    Nov 30, 2014. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Oil prices do not affect solar. Executives of solar companies do not think so and my view is the same. I read an article yesterday that fund managers holding energy stocks, including oil and solar, are selling oil stocks and rebalance by selling other components. ETF was quoted as an example. I suspect that volatility in addition to already playing of CSIQ only makes this more and more frustrating.
    So financial investment structures can have logical "energy" like ties, but operational ties are simply not powerful enough to compete with costing in solar.
    It is cheaper to build a solar plant and secure a 20-year energy cost than , any other one today.
    Nov 30, 2014. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Hi all, this is a snapshot summary of the 9 months period of CEDR Reporting for the 2014. I hope it will be of interest here
    http://bit.ly/1xM2sIe
    Nov 27, 2014. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    I estimated that from the same size of projects in three quarters of 2014, In 2015 they can extract at least $3.02. Then you have 200MW and one quarter of third-party module sales. I would imagine that at 17% average they can bring another $40 to $60M NI so there is a dollar, and I am being conservative. Plus what they would produce on modules only adding another 15% growth. I think $4.33 is very easy to reach. I am with Northland here about $4.83 for 2015, I do not see 2016 due to future of Japanese pipeline as yieldco.
    Nov 27, 2014. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Ok, a small note on the income statements here
    http://bit.ly/1vlSQGO
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    I guess the tables are not viewable to guests, sorry.
    Nov 26, 2014. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Handy income statements for 9 months of top four Chinese companies
    http://bit.ly/1Fr13g5
    Nov 26, 2014. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    I see reclassification issue with what has been sold for Q3, and thanks for pointing it out, but what is most relevant is what is left for Q4 and 2015, most importantly. So Oro-Medonte has 4.6MW left but it is as 11.5 for 206.5MW. Now we have 312.6MW for EPC showing that 132.2MW have been recognized, leaving this group as 180.4MW, Yet if you look to the right of the table, you have 182.3MW left,
    http://bit.ly/1uV2oZF
    So if I put this together 206.5-11.5+4.6=199.8, plus 182.3MW equals 381.9MW missing 5MW from the total table.
    So at the end, if Q4 has 70MW, 129.8MW in own projects instead of 136MW are left, but I suspect the EPC goes up.
    This link here shows that 269.8MWdc are shown as 200MWac on Samsung site
    http://bit.ly/1uV2mRo
    as you may notice another 100MW are being proposed by Samsung, which I suspect CSIQ will get at another 130 to 140dc. for CSIQ.
    Samsung also bid for 140MW in 2015 auction, and by outcome CSIQ should get that develompent.
    Thanks Boomers for correcting some of those, but bottom line is still on course.
    This is certainly not nothing.
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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