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Robert Dydo  

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  • Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case [View article]
    Update on the Q4, we normally do not publish full reports for public access, this time is different
    Feb 28, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Industry's Problematic Capacity Expansion Rate [View article]
    Expansion is not a result of the demand, but existing capacity plus demand. Companies, which are now experts on capacity and have years in the business provide what they need to succeed. Start up and marketing gimmicks should not count in the same sentence.
    Do not forget Saudi Arabia plans from SunEdison.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    Thanks Pop,
    I just want to let investors know that we will have "CEDR Alert" for the regular membership,
    Google "SPVInvestor Forum" or just check this link.
    Havea look at the files excel and PDF to tell you what club is but alert will be based on this. It will offer you view before companies report
    I think worth checking for those who worry about impacts etc.
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar: Energy, But Not Oil [View article]
    Excellent article, Thank you.
    Feb 12, 2015. 02:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    I am talking about IRR of 5.5%, the calculation I provided is around 3,4%,
    Yield is not build and sell that is for sure, it is REIT-like structure, which pays dividend and uses many ways including tax equity to create cash flows.
    Alone this is not so attractive, but I bet it is a lot cheaper to build as well than $1.75.
    We just opened SPVI back to general public at $3.99 per month, if you interested it calms down yahoo noise and offers a lot more tools
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    I stipulate that Recurrent will be the principle yield co. everything listed in my table can sell in 2015 and it is not part of it. However in 2016, Japanese projects can be added or sold, and they will be in line of 300MW each year including 2017.. At the end of the 2016, there could be 1.3GW in yield plus whatever they harvest in projects from now till mid-2016 for sale and so on.
    To answer your second question $2.3 per watt is an average. Do not forget that for yieldco this is not the cost. The cost is COGS. I would not be surprised that particular setup is around $1.75/Wdc or $2.24/Wac. ITC credit of 30% dollar for dollar Federal and the State another 10% so you are looking at $0.90 in credits. Cost $1.32*117MWac you looking at $154M.
    Revenue of $0.05/kWh, 6 hours average maybe more, 365, for 90% on 20 year PPA is about 231M kWh at $0.05 this comes to be $11.55M/year. 20 years we have $231M. Maintenance is a $500K per year or $10M for 20 years. You pay no taxes and take the overage to another project. Essentially the whole revenue is cash flow; you end up with tax equity after deductions. IRR on the project is about 3%. Not the best but you can have two at 6.5% and all balance to not bad 5.5%
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    I think that high valuation in the pressured market looks as too much commitment to some. GS is probably a perfect example of refusal to see beyond agenda of own house. However, there was muted reaction to acquisition with price changes. JPM added $4 to the deal and rounded to $40, I think, others kept their numbers.
    We know there is a strategy to serve the pie, but we do not know how the pie is going to be served. Most of those guys use complex models to come up with EPS and PE, so they need that detail.
    Jinko, I think, was given higher target this year by CS, so it can be done.
    In down market analysts adjust their targets down. This has not happen in solar, it is unusual and commendable, so I would not be upset they are not getting lifted.
    Feb 11, 2015. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    They will announce plans for yield co this year. I assume early 2016 could be the date. There are many ways how stock can benefit, operationally and market wise. EPS I suggest is not driven by yield so there is much of the price appreciation beyond it left.
    We should get the details in March, and if we see full strategy then we can analyze what that looks like. Nomura and Northland are talking about PTs ranging from $44 to $100.00 today, and both analysts have a back door to the company.
    My point is that you can get comfortably into the stock, and wait what is coming. Condition almost unheard of in the solar industry.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    Thank you, I appreciate it.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    much obliged for your kind words
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case [View article]
    CSIQ will not work with anyone unless they have commercial scale to supply tools to support production facilitation. It has to be scalable, easily adaptable to existing processing lines. Prototyping production just because CVD can be replaced by LPD, is not going to work for a business of CSIQ scale.
    The process offered by the company is just one of few, and to be honest the biggest concern I would have is the plug and play capability of it when addressing other aspects. This is too garage looking today, to even stop for consideration.
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case [View article]
    Snake, that is correct.
    The deficit of the projects remains at about 134.9MW versus 2015. I have CAD and the US projects at $833M in 2015. I have $1.9B for 2.9GW third party, which includes 20% increase, deficit of $241M versus revenue of $2.98B
    The supplemental value will be 80MW in Japan, China 100MW and UK 34-40MW at average of 3.50, 1.66 and 2.2 or total contribution $514M all numbers based on Watt DC. I can see those to be 20% GM and essentially bringing about a $1 to the bottom line, and the Revenue to 3.3B. No Recurrent, as to me this is yieldco.
    So this is my $4.50 EPS. Recurrent could add $0.54 on 20% contribution in 2015, which is $7M per quarter Opex around $20M interest accumulative as recycles with project construction and percentage of revenue generation, 25% taxes. Revenue becomes 3.8B in 2015. If Recurrent sells, I do not see selling in Japan or China but only UK. Japanese portfolio becomes yieldco in Asia, which could include Chinese projects totaling 400MW by then.
    I see Recurrent portfolio to stay as it offer huge gains on ITC. Also sale binding in November, with potentially another 700MW in the US for this credit this is a huge win for Canadian, probably got it for peanuts. RET in Australia not attractive to consider this serious impact imho. The outcome of yieldco and ITC is business changer for the company.
    Japan has its own problems mainly low irradiation, half of Cali and Texas, also 30 day no compensation curtailment. Still fat FiT is a good selling point and even great for yield.
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case [View article]
    I also see the $6 EPS as unrealistic objective. Even with Recurrent, and considering they will sell it I see about a $1.00 I am using 15% GM and 25% allocation for 2015. There is $900M in Canada as per NR and about $103M in the US own CSIQ batch.
    Before anything else is considered for sale project deficit is about 134.9MW for 2015 vs. 2014. Since majority of the projects sold in Q3 and Q4, currency impacts are already there. What we have to gain is 20% growth on module sales, where ASP must remain flat to overall 2014 (0.66) and projects sales can come from Japan, China, UK or US , but will not come from all if yield is real.
    I am waiting for March to figure this out, but I see 2015 as $4.50 or so,
    DTA could add substantial EPS in Q4, and make 2015 look like less income (but DTA can be added in 2015).
    It does not matter for 2015 as yield co and sale volumes can reach $6 in EPS in 2016.
    I think CSIQ will have around $560M in cash by Q1 (after the RE is absorbed and not including restricted). If RE portfolio is being sold, % of completion will help pay of the LCs. They can borrow up to 70% of project book, no issue here.
    Congrats, I think you covered very well the bear case collapse.
    Feb 6, 2015. 01:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming End Of Chinese Solar Manufacturing Dominance [View article]
    What technology by the US companies hold advantage over Chinese?
    How big is the payroll influence on cost versus scale?
    The day SCTY produces first module Chinese will be having cost below $0.40 per watt.
    The power balance has never been off and away from the US. SunPower uses n-type wafers made by Comtec in Malaysia, a Chinese company. Their process involves copper instead of silver and produces high efficiency modules for the same efficiency for years at high costs. If anything Chinese are creeping up on SunPower. In fact Canadian has just destroyed market dominance in the US with massive portfolio, beating those companies and their project line ups.
    The article does not have facts but kudos for the bravery in creativity.
    Feb 4, 2015. 10:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    CSIQ buys Recurrent, fantastic news with permanent ITC credit in a background.
    Feb 3, 2015. 12:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment