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Robert Dydo  

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  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Mike, how is your SUNE investment doing? CSIQ has one bad quarter and market takes a stab with 20% drop. I see this as an opportunity. When Q3 is all done, I will be buying into CSIQ, for huge quarter and even better 2016.
    I think I have still about 3 months and around $7 left to $5 for SUNE?
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    I am hurting on JKS, my average is about $23.50 right now, but I took a bit of loss on FSLR. SUNE is coming down as I predicted, most will recover but not that one. FSLR strong, over the cc price.
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    My average price on FSLR was $49, I sold most of my holding to buy JKS and rest after the quarterly release, only sadly making money on that chunk, I am fully invested in JKS right now for quarterly result and their utilization of doubling the energy sales and Malaysian plant facility. I have also good indication for module sales this quarter for Chinese peers.

    I made comments about SUNE before it collapsed, so it was natural for me to make comment when it did collapse. Now I will add one more. In three months SUNE will be around $5, while FSLR will be at $60 to $70 range. My predictions are made based on power of the balance sheet, operational ability of each entity and business prospects. You cannot be insolvent in your operations and run a loan frenzy for too long, before someone says we need to de-risk our portfolio. Friday was a sucker day and institutions were selling. When FSLR is selling off you buy as the company has solid business, GM, and power of execution. When SUNE selling you are hoping you have chance to press sell fast enough.
    Good luck to you.
    Aug 8, 2015. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Mike, you have probably sold SUNE before today, still I am curious if you have something to add about my bias with FSLR?
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    FSLR did better than SPWR, and they are planning to do great in H2.
    SUNE will not have a lot of good news in two days.
    Aug 4, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    My forum offers free registration now. Registered members can read about US solar companies and post on Yieldcos. If you are interested visit this link.
    Most of my articles are discussed in other threads, specially those on Chinese stocks. Access there is for paid members. Still my desire is to popularize solar as investment.
    http://bit.ly/1aRBHJc
    Aug 2, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anti-Dumping Duties Can Knock The Wind Out Of Canadian Solar [View article]
    PV-Mag contacted the company
    A statement of reasons from the latest July 3 ruling is set to be issued within 15 days. pv magazine has contacted the affected companies for comment.

    Canadian Solar responded, saying the decision will not affect its Canadian business. "As we have a module factory in Canada, with 500 MW production capacity per year, most of our modules supplied to Canada markets are produced locally," said the spokesperson.

    Read more: http://bit.ly/1NLlqIX

    As I was saying all along.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anti-Dumping Duties Can Knock The Wind Out Of Canadian Solar [View article]
    Hi, no, I am not. The points made by me in my article remain unresolved. I will wait until yieldco conclusion. I may also move if the price for the stock will hit ridiculously low levels.
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Anti-Dumping Duties Can Knock The Wind Out Of Canadian Solar [View article]
    Tariffs in the US on Chinese solar cells are expected to fall by 50% by the 7th of July, from 30s to 17% or so. Canada is not a significant market. CSIQ exported 5MW there in 2014 and about 16MW in Jan and February before the decision. Nothing was sent since March by any major company.
    EU decision opened a door for 500MW in Canada. Commission claims difficulty to distinguish between Chinese and other locations modules. Now capacity in Canada, since all major projects are on the end of the pipe, will be used for the EU.
    Majority think that EU is a major market for solar. Reality is starts to drop to level of 10% this year. All major business is now in Asia and the US.
    Since the company makes modules in Canada, the tariff there was never going to impact their business. Not the best choice for the paying version of the SA, considering so many wrong conclusions.
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:23 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Canadian Solar remains my fundamental pick. However, as my article describes, I am not sure about all the details. I am aware of their project portfolio, but not know a lot about CAFD. My article explains this.

    FSLR has already gone through yieldco establishment and can go back to making money. They have 1.5GW of contracted and sold projects, which they had 200MW cashed in on Dec 31, 2014. That is about $3B left to sell. They also have 1.6GW of projects , which are not sold (Apple bought PPA in one of those). They added 370MW in Chile and 200MW in UAE in last two months. There is at least another 500MW in Chile and 5GW in India from known to me projects and short term objectives.

    To your point FSLR has three times business size, and plenty of opportunity now to grow its EPS. CSIQ no so much until yieldco is established. They also need to work on efficiency as they are staying behind a bit.
    Jul 5, 2015. 10:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Erkin, all past transactions will be executed and remain financed. No new transactions for the Bank from Tuesday.
    You are really asking if FSLR can get financing. For the company , which does not pay interest expenses in any meaningful way and has probably the highest corporate score for credit eligibility I would say great opportunity for banking institutions get behind FSLR.
    I doubt this is an obstacle. I would say that may explain some of the selling in the name only adding to opportunity in the name and may explain why RBC broker wrote such poor analysis on FSLR. RBC is one of the largest banks in the world and certainly one of the largest in Canada. Is this a reaction of not getting FSLR business?
    Jul 5, 2015. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    @MikesT,
    Roof top is certainly where FSLR has no viable presence. Their TetraSun Malaysian line is suppose to start filling the gap, but it remains a back burner business today. Yieldco is a key to hold to value in utility sector and I disagree that FSLR is losing that space. That space is vast enough to accommodate many operators and prices do not tell the story as they shrink while MWs grow. I know the industry well enough to tell you that FSLR margins will continue to lead, when selling plants. This is a cost mechanism, which is better for them than anyone, and I know a lot about it.
    Retailing modules via third party re-sellers or lease operators are not FSLR business objective. This is very costly business even for the direct supplier like SPWR, which has poor output for invested dollars. Everyone you quote is deficient in profitability when it comes to third party installer business. CSIQ and JKS sell modules to third parties. FSLR does not have objective to be a third party seller. Their capacity expansion will support their own business first.
    Still, the rooftop business is certainly growing, but I do not believe it is eliminating utility model. I think FSLR has shown ability for commercial applications and knowing industry cycles, you will find FSLR soon enough also engaging in this metric. They focus on their competency today and will continue to do so in the future exploring other paths. They can as they have the money to do so.
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    At MikesT,
    The market is reactionary and it is influenced by strong interest of institutional players. If you consider the market and given price as the representation of fundamentals of any company, you would not have a need for analysis or presence of an opportunity. We all know that prices are bias, but fundamental driven value is objective.
    SUNE has no fundamental value and its SP is built on the bias from institutional ownership. FSLR has value, which currently is beyond its market price thus offers opportunity in the stock. Those are operational facts about each name. Of course either condition does not merit price adjustments, since their bias and thank goodness, this gives us opportunities for long term investing in value and not hype created by someone's interests, read SUNE.

    Lastly growth is measured by percentage, but it is measured within industry. The industry is growing and FSLR remains at the top of the pack of three to four names. I will be first to tell you if FSLR breaks off from that top. This is not the case now.
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Mikestesla, I doubt you have access to it. Your quotes and firm belief that it will impact CSIQ speaks to contrary what data shows.
    I think you ego got into the equation. It is not about you writing about it, but about sources and views you quote, which make no impact on CSIQ. You certainly make no impact on anything at all. Frankly, I make no impact on anyone either. I offer an opinion only and you are right my opinions are as good as fundamentals I write about, not stock prices at given time. I wrote buy articles on Canadian in 2013
    http://bit.ly/1ggsrq3
    and on JKS,
    http://bit.ly/1ggsrGh
    Now check prices on those companies then, and rate me. LOL
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    When it comes to Chinese modules and lower ASP for them, it certainly has impacted the global scene for ASP of project watt. However in reality, Chinese companies, to a degree of CSIQ, hardly penetrated global market when it comes to solar plants. FSLR is not alone experiencing shrink of the margins. It is a natural process in any industry as it matures. This is why you have yieldco vehicles in play, to preserve value what companies sell at 20%< less margins, but can keep them now for what the produce in energy and IRR, and makes a lot more money in the long run.
    FSLR improves efficiency and cost by adding capacity, size reduces costs at 20% every time you double the size of your lines. 1% efficiency does some 10% cost reductions.
    FSLR will work with the margins and build more plants and will feed them to yieldco. FSLR will produce profit form that process, and it is possibly the best company to benefit from yieldco today.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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