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Robert Dydo  

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  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    thucydies123,
    I did not say that SPWR is falling apart by running out of money or having burden of debt it carry and cannot manage it. SPWR is one of the 6 stocks I have for solar long consideration as part of the portfolio. It is not top 1 but it is not the a last.
    My article is about efficiency their modules which is a marketing hyperbole versus their business return. I found nothing, which would add premium and was seen in financial results in 2014 and it appears there is no premium in 2015 either. Yet the premium is in valuation with reason for high efficiency product (nothing else can be considered, but perhaps Total ownership). The premium is 100% of FSLR and 150% of CSIQ. Companies with equally good net income ratios and powerful revenues. Both planning yield, and one going into jv with SPWR.
    I did not say that product was bad or wasn't superior I said that product superiority is going to shrink. Isn't a logical conclusion that shrink will affect margins? Others seem to run efficiency to help them reduce costs hence the reason for the article.
    The other is demand, SPWR has not gained demand for the product. They are looking to shrink the revenue in 2015 versus 2014, an assessment by analysts not me. Others are planning to repeat it all due to yield according to reasons, but. They are going to have net loss in Q1 in GAAP?
    I do not recommend stocks I only show how they operate and how they compare to each other to find value. I write about things most people in popular places like MF or SA do not write about.
    Thank you for your comments and good luck with your investments.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    That's fantastic, I am really happy for you. I have a question. At one point you said that SPWR gave you 500% return? How is that possible as Travis is not a trader and stock moved only 147% since he started recommending it late 2010?
    Even if you got on at the lowest point of SPWR in 2013 you would earn 196%?
    Most people who picked CSIQ in this period are 800% up, 4 times return.
    This is the link to show the relationship
    d_signal"%3A"%23f1c232...
    I am really happy for your success.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    I analyzed facts , which allow for comparison of results. What else is there?
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Hi Shane, thank you for your comment. I am still looking for a company, which can do storage and has unique solution for the scale you are talking about. Tesla may, but I am not getting into the analysis of this type entity today. It is outside of my interests to be honest. I think the storage is a great opportunity, but I think it is not a requirement for adoption or is an obstacle to it. Solar is still auxiliary and what regulates electricity generation and capacity factor expansion is how other means like NG feel gaps when solar is off. I think when you get to the point of saturation of solar and clear departure of source of energy like coal, then storage will gain plenty. For now this is subject of start ups and twitter messages.
    I think the bad asset comment came from Gordon Johnson, who has a short on FSLR, but loves SUNE.
    Some, who read this article, may think I am negative on SUNE and TERP business relation. I actually think that relationship is brilliant and this is why embrace yield vehicle for the company like Canadian Solar. SunEdison DevCo. is not a shrewd manufacturer, which can save on module costs for own projects and perhaps carry that value to lower leverage for yield, creating more CAFD for investors and itself. I like TERP's engagement in wind as well, as it shows that making money is important for consolidated SUNE management.
    I am also watching SUNE with great interest (the developer the most). In many aspects the company has pioneer project builiding, selling and yield.The great scale is matched with big ambition on many global fronts. At the same time they are prone-to-overstating marketers, who indulge idea of an infrastructure company, built with purpose of raising money rather than making money. Investing $4B in India is an example of a hyperbole. There is no $4B in this business today and never will be to spend on this scale.
    Capital markets love SUNE prospects probably for ability to collect fees for debt and secondary equity sales, yet around 30% or 80M shares are hold short, hoping that someone will turn a cold shoulder at them at one point and cause the house of cards to fall. I have no desire to be in it and watching numbers seem simple enough to keep the distance.
    Apr 10, 2015. 10:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Rognola, thank you.
    There are a lot of questions about yield, but I actually like TERP. SUNE the developer is the concern. I do not want to guess with my money if they can make it work. CSIQ and FSLR have healthy business structures that is a critical difference. High net income ratios will help to keep profit format on one side and use yield vehicle to collect cash on investing side of the cash flow. CSIQ is my choice as they are half of FSLR value, but some people worry about Chinese manufacture more than Malaysian one, so FSLR is also good one.
    I wrote article on CSIQ yield formation using SUNE and TERP model. FSLR and SPWR jv is more complicated to start, but may allow each company sell rather than drop projects, due to minority interest in reporting entity. I am not sure, but I think so.
    Exciting times for solar for sure
    Apr 10, 2015. 07:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    Solguy, everyone does 85% and now they are pushing 30 years. 2% does not help 50% extra cost. Volume speaks facts as well.
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    Gumby how many modules did SPWR sell in 2014? Commercial, third party and retail?
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    Apple is buying electricity from First Solar and Samsung hired Canadian Solar to built their presence in Canada and they could use anyone. We all have stories. Gumby their efficiency is 33% per panel and costs up to 50% more. Statistically speaking its easier to go from 70% to 90% than from 98% to 100%. This is the situation with efficiency development.
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    The good news is I made no suggestions, I only review facts and assess them. The reader will have to make the conclusion and act accordingly.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Ralph, thank you. Comments here are the proof how little people know about the accounting and real situation of SUNE, the developer. I am happy that my article shows some of those concerns and can serve as an opener for discussion. Of course, I am disappointed that my integrity is being questioned and that someone would say I write lies. Certainly, my article is an aberration from SA articles on the subject, and probably this is the reason for the stir up . As you mentioned, I hope SunEdison can manage successfully, as this will be good for the industry as a whole. However, this struggle is so expansive and needing so much improvement that I rather stay on the sidelines, just in case something may not work.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    Gumby,
    I do not market solar panels. I analyze solar companies. As an investor I see SPWR receiving high PE on low EPS. If this is the result of high-efficiency that is great, but this does not mean SPWR a better company or the reason is valid. I also explain how this lead is at risk with new technologies available.

    I think we are talking about two different subjects, and your argument does not question my thesis nor I question yours. SPWR could continue to sell its product successfully, but I think their presence at the top of the food-chain based on high-efficiency is not holding a lot of water, based on their business key performance indicators.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Anyone who knows the industry can be deeply concerned about the future if SunEdison would have issues with liquidity. My article is an expression why I do not own the stock. Everything I said is a fact taken from the company's data sets.
    I love the scale and the vision they are operating with, but as a person who knows the business dynamic, I have express my concerns. Good luck with your investments.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Your emotions are causing you to be confused. 2000MW is installation rate. This means SunEdison in 2015 will process 2GW of projects including construction. They will sell 300MW to 3P and drop 425MW to TERP. They will keep 792MW on their balance sheet. If you look back at my article, I recognize $0.40 per watt from the combination of sale and drop, which gives SunEdison DevDo $290M cash. Recently dropped projects from UK had a $1.70 ASP, at $0.40 cash margin, means they have 23.5% using my figures. In order to hold projects on their balance sheet, they need to invest own cash at 20%. I calculated at $1.5 COGS per watt 792MW as $237M. They need that money. So this is a capital expense seen on the balance. Same as the construction of projects. I do not even bother about those loans, as I assume they will simply cycle through them as they sell other projects and regain leverage. The issue is clear. They are paying for operations from debt and selling equity. If you are an accountant I am stunned, you do not know this.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:10 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Investor1989,
    My article is not about consolidated SunEdison. It is specifically about the developer, the company, which sell projects to third parties and drop projects into TERP. With the exception of the reference to FYE 2014 results Q4 2014 and Q4 2015 are financial quotes pertaining to SunEdison DevCo only. I would suggest listening to presentation for the fourth time and this why:
    1. My article does not discuss gross margins. It reflects on operating expenses. I know you have no idea about accounting because you cannot tell the difference. Drops to TERP are recognized on investing part of the cash flow. SunEdison receives this as cash, never using income statement. They refer to it as a cash margin. I compare cash margin to what they did for operating expense in Q4 2014 and what they will do in Q4 2015. SunEdison is. Based on the operating expense improvement they need to take back $243M. Again if you knew accounting, you would know how difficult that is.
    2. SunEdison DevCo ‘s value of systems is $3B, and liability against is $3.2B. This means if all of those projects are sold to 3P or dropped to TERP its gross margin or cash margins is only 11% from 20%. TERP borrowing is an additional $1.6B plus $800M in the bond they sold at 5.87%. The presentation shows this very well on page 17 of Q4 2014 results for SUNE.
    3. The Final blow to your accounting knowledge. $1.5B warehouse facility is a cluster of borrowing “arranged” by Sun DevCo for “TERP” to accommodate drops of projects, in case TERP Is short of cash. This is a cluster of lenders willing to lend money to TERP to get SUNE Devco projects. A fancy word for a line of credit.
    Apr 10, 2015. 04:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    When comparing results SPWR as any other business , turning 20% GM and losing most of it on operating expenses. The efficiency drives the total amount of revenue, but that does not make SPWR better company.
    Apr 10, 2015. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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