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Robert Dydo  

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  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    The revenue represents relationship to selling price. You need to use MW sold and margin related to solar plants to measure the company's growth. It is pretty lame to say that the company is not growing if the product is selling at 20% less average year to year. Flat revenue size represents 20% growth.
    When selling third party modules your costs can be lower especially on financial costs and on Opex to a degree, however revenues do not make margins in the solar plant business or make them better due to volume. Gross margin is a fixed factor unrelated to quantity of MW. They are almost constant as opex associated with plant building grows with amount of plants you build. Margins moreover are related to geographies of projects. Thus COGS in solar business will have different levels.
    Of course 20% of $4B is less than 20% of $6B. You want the company to keep its money. SUNE has no ability to keep anything, as it makes nothing.

    Of course we are comparing FSLR to other companies. You have idolized SUNE, which cannot make a dime even on gross margin, never mind adding opex. Their development produces 8% margin, FSLR produces 8% margin on maintenance of solar plants. and 20% range on selling plants.
    SUNE uses third party OEM Flextronics modules accommodating Flex gross margin. FSLR uses own modules, which get cheaper due to capacity expansions and efficiency increase.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    @MikeTesla,
    As a matter of fact I know more than rest of you. I run a market intelligence firm, which uses Chinese custom data to establish , which company export were. Therefore, everything in your post makes no impact on CSIQ.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    I track import to Canada and there are none in 3 months and CSIQ imported 8MW in 2014. If you compare this to what they sold in Canada, you will see as not important. Secondly CSIQ is closing projects in Canada and that capacity is available for global demand.

    The reason FSLR has low earnings because they have stock projects up for yieldco and also because average prices are lower. It is not the revenue but margin which drives business. 14GW portfolio is 6GW more than second competitor. FSLR needs to increase own capacity to speed up project development. They are using own module capacity for projects and there is a limited capacity to benefit from the global demand as in third party sales because of it.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    GeoPax, I closed my position because Yieldco is a learning experience for the market. Canadian will not have EPS from Yieldco, they will have GL transfers. Their balance sheet will be good, but their income statement will not show solar plant sales. In the current state of market understanding of yieldco as a value that is a risk to stock price.
    Beyond it, I need details, and there is no rush to be in the stock when details are announced. I consider FSLR already leaving the start line and the stock has not got anything from yieldco value. It is hard to believe that CSIQ will be considered in different way.
    As you see nothing is a fundamental shift, it is a market perception and my interpretation of it.
    Jul 2, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    We will see, but I can pretty much state that FSLR will borrow for less and borrow less. It will be profitable. SUNE borrows to pay for own operations, the company cannot make gross profit to even pay for own debt interest. I am staying away. When carpet is pulled there is nothing to hold on to. It could happen when the second yieldco floats.
    SUNE is in the uptrend but it is a balloon full of hot air. FSLR, SPWR and CSIQ are solid organizations making money from own businesses not from selling equity and borrowing.
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    We have soft market and fear mongering managing stock prices.
    I have seen this before and probably will see more of it. Those behaviors pass. I would be always hopeful to time the market, but sometimes it is tough to do so.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    CSIQ makes modules in Canada. Canada tariffs are nothing. Nobody is exporting modules form China in three months since March anyway. If oil is the reason, it is good opportunity as oil has nothing to do with solar. I disagree that FSLR has no projects. It has plenty of projects, and th worry i would have be its capacity. ASP is going to go up in H2 potentially and yieldco will protect ASP for sponsors.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Yawns At JA Solar Chairman's 'Go Private' Offer [View article]
    My reply is for reasons of truth. I would normally not bothered disputing opinions about me on SA. SA is about the subject of the article. However, when you write articles you get abused frequently, including your integrity.

    You left the site when CSIQ was at $10 and I held the CSIQ already after I sold JASO in May after one very successful trade. You can see articles I wrote here and on my site. I wrote one dedicated article to Trina in 40 articles I written. To state I pumped one stock and say it was TSL is truly false. I have held many of the Chinese stocks in last few years at any given time. I traded them, but I always returned to CSIQ and had experienced the best return ever, similar to what stock did in 2013 700 to 800% return was my return. I continued to benefit from it until recently.
    Telling half truths or band reality was and still is considered an offense on SPVI. Abuse was equally not permitted. You have left the site as you did not want to pay for it, which was a choice. Choice was always and will be celebrated as long as it is not turned to abuse or a lie and rules are followed.
    I am disappointed after having private correspondence with you during your time at SPVI and shortly after explaining your reasons why leaving to conclude with this debate.
    I wish you all the best and will not engage in another in the future.
    Robert
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Yawns At JA Solar Chairman's 'Go Private' Offer [View article]
    Boss, have you not left the forum in July 2013 when we went to subscription?
    I already had CSIQ in $5s at the time. All the people in the forum know exactly how and what I did in those years. How could you know?
    All those years I felt there was no resentment when you left, but I guess something went a miss. I was not aware.
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    I am not big on SUNE, because I consider them weak as an operation. At the same time it is hard to avoid facts that the stock did quite well. I hope that strong businesses can repeat their success and turn their yieldco relationships to even grater benefit, showing profits.
    Jun 30, 2015. 11:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    I am more hopeful than enthusiastic about CSIQ and at this point I feel more comfortable in FSLR.
    Jun 30, 2015. 11:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Thank you very much for your kind words
    Jun 30, 2015. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    thank you
    Jun 30, 2015. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Is At A Tipping Point [View article]
    Congrats Eystein, another excellent article
    Jun 20, 2015. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Investing After First-Quarter Results [View article]
    Year to date but not for the 12 months running. CSIQ leads in that category.
    Jun 17, 2015. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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