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Robert Dydo  

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  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    It sounds like you are misinformed or made a choice of not taking time to review information. I wrote an article addressing this confusion here
    http://bit.ly/1ylGAKF
    CSIQ pipeline is described here. As you see CSIQ is very close with any viable pipeline. Consider that 2GW of SunPower is in China, I think Canadian is more than equal in comparison and a lot better operator, last time I checked.
    http://bit.ly/1ylGB0V
    Apr 11, 2015. 01:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    I did not say I own 6 companies. I consider 6 as long position consideration.
    I talk about them here. These are leaders at various levels of appreciation.
    I own CSIQ as a long term holding.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 11, 2015. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    I understand financial statements of the company and their plan. This is why I am skeptical. The market has paid for the company in $7B market cap and over $2B in TERP. How much more misunderstanding is left to use this statement as a blanket?
    BTW it is not as hard to understand since SunEdison did fantastic job showing general ledger transactions.
    Apr 11, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    It is a nature of the beast. I think it is not sinister in sense of yield. However SUNE DevCo is a weak business when you look at SPWR and FSLR. They are lending to it and will sell its equity to profit. The only fear is if they turn the switch and start chopping off from the top when valuation gets too high. Investment bankers are happy to make money at least twice not once. So the schemes could be already in place.
    Stronger the sponsor better the yield. Not sure yet but I think so.
    Apr 11, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    I am sorry but I have no idea what you talking about. I use precise calculations so generalizations like yours do not apply.
    Apr 11, 2015. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    In simple terms, warehouse is a line of credit, which is supported by the collateral, in this case projects. Only TERP comes and buys projects from the warehouse. On the other hand SUNE uses it like a line of credit. SUNE can put up to $1.5B of projects in collateral, in return for liquidity and the interest rate. As soon as TERP gets off a project, the credit opens up again. SUNE is responsible for interest and fees in my opinion. The limit is $1.5GW what I saw, but more lenders can come on.
    792MW is commitment to building and to hold in 2015. Whether they keep is for a day or a year, if the total comes up as 792MW at any given time of the snapshot, it creates debt and capital expenditure. My focus is not debt but the cash. I know where debt comes from, but I do not know where cash come from, or more precisely if it is enough of it coming.
    Each project consists of equity or CAPEX and borrowing, non-recourse against the project. Normally 25/75 but I go 20/80. Then a project asset moves to warehouse to be picked by TERP later. All borrowing is known, but where is the cash come from? The answer is from drops and third party sales, but is it enough?
    My math is simple 725MW dropped/sold at $0.40/watt $290M. Cash on hand $387M. Now against it you have $237M CAPEX and $400M in interest rate. Cash account goes down to $40M. What about operating expenses, losses from poly? I use dividends, GM from service, IDRs and other things to offset. This how I wonder and doubt that in span of 12 months your operating expense becomes $0.22 from $0.47 if you have one-time costs taken out. SUNE does not produce positive cash flow from its operations today, and borrows to pay for debt interest and creates cash from selling equity. If they can spend what they say they will on OPEX, they are golden, but I have never seen any outfit chopped their business expenses by half when growing by 100%. This is why I have doubts
    Apr 11, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    thucydies123,
    I did not say that SPWR is falling apart by running out of money or having burden of debt it carry and cannot manage it. SPWR is one of the 6 stocks I have for solar long consideration as part of the portfolio. It is not top 1 but it is not the a last.
    My article is about efficiency their modules which is a marketing hyperbole versus their business return. I found nothing, which would add premium and was seen in financial results in 2014 and it appears there is no premium in 2015 either. Yet the premium is in valuation with reason for high efficiency product (nothing else can be considered, but perhaps Total ownership). The premium is 100% of FSLR and 150% of CSIQ. Companies with equally good net income ratios and powerful revenues. Both planning yield, and one going into jv with SPWR.
    I did not say that product was bad or wasn't superior I said that product superiority is going to shrink. Isn't a logical conclusion that shrink will affect margins? Others seem to run efficiency to help them reduce costs hence the reason for the article.
    The other is demand, SPWR has not gained demand for the product. They are looking to shrink the revenue in 2015 versus 2014, an assessment by analysts not me. Others are planning to repeat it all due to yield according to reasons, but. They are going to have net loss in Q1 in GAAP?
    I do not recommend stocks I only show how they operate and how they compare to each other to find value. I write about things most people in popular places like MF or SA do not write about.
    Thank you for your comments and good luck with your investments.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    That's fantastic, I am really happy for you. I have a question. At one point you said that SPWR gave you 500% return? How is that possible as Travis is not a trader and stock moved only 147% since he started recommending it late 2010?
    Even if you got on at the lowest point of SPWR in 2013 you would earn 196%?
    Most people who picked CSIQ in this period are 800% up, 4 times return.
    This is the link to show the relationship
    d_signal"%3A"%23f1c232...
    I am really happy for your success.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    I analyzed facts , which allow for comparison of results. What else is there?
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Hi Shane, thank you for your comment. I am still looking for a company, which can do storage and has unique solution for the scale you are talking about. Tesla may, but I am not getting into the analysis of this type entity today. It is outside of my interests to be honest. I think the storage is a great opportunity, but I think it is not a requirement for adoption or is an obstacle to it. Solar is still auxiliary and what regulates electricity generation and capacity factor expansion is how other means like NG feel gaps when solar is off. I think when you get to the point of saturation of solar and clear departure of source of energy like coal, then storage will gain plenty. For now this is subject of start ups and twitter messages.
    I think the bad asset comment came from Gordon Johnson, who has a short on FSLR, but loves SUNE.
    Some, who read this article, may think I am negative on SUNE and TERP business relation. I actually think that relationship is brilliant and this is why embrace yield vehicle for the company like Canadian Solar. SunEdison DevCo. is not a shrewd manufacturer, which can save on module costs for own projects and perhaps carry that value to lower leverage for yield, creating more CAFD for investors and itself. I like TERP's engagement in wind as well, as it shows that making money is important for consolidated SUNE management.
    I am also watching SUNE with great interest (the developer the most). In many aspects the company has pioneer project builiding, selling and yield.The great scale is matched with big ambition on many global fronts. At the same time they are prone-to-overstating marketers, who indulge idea of an infrastructure company, built with purpose of raising money rather than making money. Investing $4B in India is an example of a hyperbole. There is no $4B in this business today and never will be to spend on this scale.
    Capital markets love SUNE prospects probably for ability to collect fees for debt and secondary equity sales, yet around 30% or 80M shares are hold short, hoping that someone will turn a cold shoulder at them at one point and cause the house of cards to fall. I have no desire to be in it and watching numbers seem simple enough to keep the distance.
    Apr 10, 2015. 10:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Rognola, thank you.
    There are a lot of questions about yield, but I actually like TERP. SUNE the developer is the concern. I do not want to guess with my money if they can make it work. CSIQ and FSLR have healthy business structures that is a critical difference. High net income ratios will help to keep profit format on one side and use yield vehicle to collect cash on investing side of the cash flow. CSIQ is my choice as they are half of FSLR value, but some people worry about Chinese manufacture more than Malaysian one, so FSLR is also good one.
    I wrote article on CSIQ yield formation using SUNE and TERP model. FSLR and SPWR jv is more complicated to start, but may allow each company sell rather than drop projects, due to minority interest in reporting entity. I am not sure, but I think so.
    Exciting times for solar for sure
    Apr 10, 2015. 07:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    Solguy, everyone does 85% and now they are pushing 30 years. 2% does not help 50% extra cost. Volume speaks facts as well.
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    Gumby how many modules did SPWR sell in 2014? Commercial, third party and retail?
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    Apple is buying electricity from First Solar and Samsung hired Canadian Solar to built their presence in Canada and they could use anyone. We all have stories. Gumby their efficiency is 33% per panel and costs up to 50% more. Statistically speaking its easier to go from 70% to 90% than from 98% to 100%. This is the situation with efficiency development.
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does High Module Efficiency Make SunPower A Better Company? [View article]
    The good news is I made no suggestions, I only review facts and assess them. The reader will have to make the conclusion and act accordingly.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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