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Robert Dydo

 
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  • Canadian Solar Remains The Most Undervalued Stock In The Chinese Solar Portfolio [View article]
    I have written an update to this article and it is posted here
    http://bit.ly/1yqePuX
    Nov 10, 2014. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Remains The Most Undervalued Stock In The Chinese Solar Portfolio [View article]
    CSIQ seems to execute well. The company guided on 4 plants being sold and they have sold 5. The Japanese update is reassuring that Japan's hiccups are just those. Great reaction and clarity. GTAT bankruptcy causes confusing selloff in solar companies, must look at it as the opportunity.
    Oct 6, 2014. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Remains The Most Undervalued Stock In The Chinese Solar Portfolio [View article]
    Customs data is not available until 25 days after month is over.
    Oct 2, 2014. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Remains The Most Undervalued Stock In The Chinese Solar Portfolio [View article]
    update from August
    http://bit.ly/1qWfteh
    Oct 1, 2014. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JA Solar - A Great Company, But A Miserable Stock [View article]
    update from August data
    http://bit.ly/1qWfteh
    Oct 1, 2014. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    George I did not say the author was right, he managed to guess the outcome by using completely wrong reasons. Great summary by the way. It could be an article on its own.
    Sep 30, 2014. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    TSL just issued a prospectus for sale of equity and CBs. The author wins the outcome, whether for the described reasons remain debatable.
    Sep 29, 2014. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is SolarCity A Solid Long-Term Investment? [View article]
    1GW of nominal power of solar panels produce a lot more electricity in the year, so this is inaccurate depiction of the potential. I understand that $750M will be given by state and $150M is the SCTY contribution. Who will give the other $4B, and where does it come from?
    How is company which has $3.5B in unpaid lease revenue potential payable in 20 years, pay for $5B investment?
    This is the largest factory in the US and it will cost the largest dollar it seems at $5 per watt, if $5B will ever come close to it. You can buy a panel in the US at $0.70 per watt, so to pay for it, will take 7 years. What is the yearly revenue forecast for SCTY? $250M (I am optimistic) so that 20 years without paying any other cost.
    Nothing here sounds real, and making an investment in unreal things usually is a dangerous proposition.
    JA Solar and SunEdison plan to build a 500MW cell factory for 0.20 per watt and something tells me that 2.8GW of cell experience JA has beats Silevo's 32MW constructed in China. Silevo tech could not support commercial operations (32MW is not commercial size) and their technology is costly (hence the price of the factory). JA module assembly line will cost another 0.20 so you have $5 per watt compared to $0.40. Reality is that factory is about $1B and the other $4B is a teaser from Musk. Even at $1B, this is expensive. Add the acquisition of $350M which is like $11 per watt for Silevo and SCTY looks like out the element here, making dramatic moves, which will cost their model dearly.
    Sep 28, 2014. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    Again, no one can know the future for certain. Anything can happen, but some possibilities are more probable than others"
    Nobody who says something like that has a single share in the market either short or long.
    You cannot invest with a strategy like this.
    I wasted my time here and that is a fact not possibility.
    Sep 26, 2014. 11:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    Your last paragraph says it all. You wrote an article about possibility. If you want to write financial articles you should focus on facts not fantasy. What-if-scenarios do not add credibility to you as a writer.
    Sep 26, 2014. 11:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Remains The Most Undervalued Stock In The Chinese Solar Portfolio [View article]
    Oh great, how about you link Enron? Love the silent offense.
    Sep 26, 2014. 10:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    I am here because your article is a mix of assumptions and combination of events, which make no relative impact on solar. Not to care what you do on the market. I will explain why I think your rhetoric is not accurate:

    1. No economy with 7 to 8% GDP is weak.
    2. Tariffs do not impact all companies the same way. I know because I research exports. TSL is a second largest exporter of modules to the US, with tariffs or without them.
    3. I have been looking at those companies probably a lot longer than you have. If you think they are leveraged now, while profitable and increasing operational output, you missed the boat on negativity drive. Your YGE example why the stock is where it is only proves that YGE is a mess and market knows it. Not all Chinese solar companies are equals. There is a huge variable to them.
    4. Coal is on retreat being replaced by solar on the global scale. Mining licenses are cancelled in India. China promises to stop relying on coal by pumping money in to renewables.
    5. What data do you have that solar demand is crushing? I have seen nothing. If economy crushes, what is the reason? Give me one and how would affect solar.
    6. Sure, raising money is not a bad thing, but you are talking about no demand and raising money to help to cushion less than 100% utilization. A negative spin created on false premise. Just last week TSL said it couldn’t produce enough to meet the demand. CEO of CSIQ said two days ago that China is very hot. This is the guy would stay away from China looking after global interests first. When he says something is hot, it is piping hot.
    So one has a choice. Take a word of a CEO of an operational marvel among peers and actions of two-second best companies, or go along with your story?
    What is really suspicious in your story, both Trina and Jinko will have the most cash on record (TTM) in the coming quarter. Both, in the last six months have already done what you suggested. Your observation is completely out of timing, so why did you write it?
    Sep 26, 2014. 10:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    This rather interesting view, but I see no single indication of anything you put in this article as a fact occurring in real life. The economy is weakening based on what? If it did, for whatever bizarre reason, why companies with billions granted by banks in credits would not get the money? China is running a program making difficult for "some" company to get the business if they are not fit technologically or have financial limitations. Are you aware that bank is part of the equity partnership in Jinko's Power subsidiary?
    What do you mean by shut off from the US market, you mean tariff? When you say levered you mean leveraged? So, they cannot get the credit but they are highly leveraged? That is a contradiction, isn’t?
    The argument about 2011 as being the same scenario is a one about a dog barking during a rain, therefore when dog barks it is going to rain soon. No logic whatsoever. In fact, the reality you described does not exist.
    Industry got a glut of supply against lack of the demand; the demand broke not because of the credit crunch, but because politicians decided to save the money on green energy and to stop paying subsidies. Italy was the place when this started. Even that statement is relative. Since 2007, solar demand had grown every year with 2011 topping 2010 and 2012 topping 2011 etc. Most people who know the business suspect that a “winter” industry came to experience, was an artificially created scheme to kill deficiency globally but also kill mom and pop’ shops in Mainland.
    China started FiT program last year. Just about every example from the regime shows support to solar, starting with changes for the DG to fit “needs” of the industry. Crude has nothing to do with solar. This oldwife’s tale, which made no sense when was invented in 2007 by Deutsche Bank, I think, has very little sense now. Trina has already collected equity offering. TSL, has over $600M in cash. Jinko will have around $400M in cash and $300M in project assets by Q3.
    In your reply you say it makes sense to rasie the money to you, and you are? I would be worried that expressing public entities' position as own would be very dangerous, but expressing your own as a company's could be illegal.
    Sep 26, 2014. 09:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Remains The Most Undervalued Stock In The Chinese Solar Portfolio [View article]
    What we see in Q3 appears to be a strong presence between two names, CSIQ and TSL. Product is imported by subs and tariff is paid on COGS, using 2012 schedule. Not bad when you think of low $0.50s as a base. I see this as limited impact and one already spoken for.
    The US market is not going to be a crazy big as Q2 was, probably 70% of that number in Q3, but still big enough considering that some companies have fallen off the delivery wagon. Two of those names Trina and Canadian appear to be going strong.
    For those who would like to learn more send us the e-mail when visiting company’s site, to get samples. We run investor think tank with access to reports as part of paid membership. New membership is by approval only for those with serious stakes in the sector.
    Sep 26, 2014. 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Joins China Solar Financing Club [View article]
    Alternative view to the authors'
    http://bit.ly/1uagwhW
    Sep 20, 2014. 10:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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