The Aftermath Of Countervailing Duties Takes Priority Over Earnings Reports: American Equipment Makers May Lose The Most [View article]
Hi Boomers, market access is the first issue. OCI is profitable but may have hard time on the cost side. From technical aspect the amount of shares out there in GCL has a bit negative side to me.
Solar Plant Development Is The Next Phase Of The Price War [View article]
Thank you Eystein REC has a decent poly operation and their Singapore plant is not bad. Unfortunately anything in Europe is expensive to operate. To me REC constitute attractive target for acquisition but there is still few balance sheet improvements available, before it will draw more eyes on it..
A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
I would not use this the amount as the contractual setting. I am almost 100% positive all GCL's contracts were written as fixed contracts in 2010. CSIQ bought 5.2GW of wafer worth for 4 years. Trina bought 15.6GW of products from GCL in various contracts, some old article of mine talks about it. http://bit.ly/A5ekOw
A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
Good question Gebby, I own TSL and YGE right now, which in my opinion covers the top end of the industry. I believe that the roadmap presented by Canadian is very doable, but I am not 100% sure if it is doable by Canadian. GCL statements about market adjusted pricing are great, but market can adjust upwards as well, this is where Canadian would be vulnerable. I guess when wafers are cheap you can always buy them cheap whether you are vertical or specialized, when they are expensive only vertical makes the dough.
A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
Canadian reported production costs at $0.84 for overall module sales, but they can produce modules with $0.76 per watt. The 1% is a bit of a trick. If you produce a cell at the same cost with 1% higher conversion at the module level it will cost you $0.10 less per watt. So you are not physically lowering the cost of production, but because of production of more wattage you average your cost down. Of course it is not lineal, as you would run out of the cost by 25% conversion today. This applies against conventional cell technologies. Another example I like is think of cutting a wafer, which is now thinner from the same block of material, you managed to cut one more wafer, since physical amount of poly in the wafer does not downgrade its conductive characteristics you got your extra wafer for free. It did not cost you to cut less but you got more watts out of the cutting session. Since we use wattage to quantify the cost, now it cost you less.
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
Hi AGA7d, thank you for taking the time to explain. Vita, there is very little I can add to the above. I I hope you we can continue our discussions while reviewing future articles,
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
Thank you for your comments; it would be easier if what I stated was not taken out of context in order to assess accuracy of my statements. I quoted Yingli to have $0.73 by the Q4 2012; this price includes estimated $0.58 processing and $.15 for the polysilicon. However you do not have to look that far. Canadian Solar has $0.74 for Q1 for all included costs; this is because of the wafer procurement from GCL Poly. I suggest for you to look at those details, Jefferies CSIQ presentation. Some companies like Yingli have a very good change to get below $0.70 by Q4. In my article I listed FSLR achievements, average going rate for modules is 12.2% this year, this is by their own statements, this rate is to increase to 12.7% by year's end as stated. Silicon technology has the largest R&D budget in the world. Look at the performance of Sunpower modules and cells as a simple example what can be done. This is where the Chinese are going with their products. At 40% better power ratings than FSLR, and costs which are a match (it is irrelevant what contributes to cost underutilization or not, companies work on margins)FSLR, is clearly curtailing its third party module sales, for lack of demand I would say, and Abound is upgrading because of clearly lagging in the conversion area and not having successful sales. The move for companies like Yingli and Trina is to go in cell technology from 19.7% to 21.3% by this year end. This is three times expected efficiency of FSLR’s improvement for this year, again while pricing is going down. It is debatable whether thin-film is the holy grail of the solar industry. A lot of companies actually exit the equipment market, AM example in US, Suntech in research and FSLR in CIGS, not having much success in the subject. Oerlikon sold Solar Division to Tokyo Electron for $275M, seemingly for a small price, Vecco stopped producing equipment for CIGS as well. As far as conversion is considered I am looking for silicon being the leader for next 5 years. However I see thin-film play alternative role in solar energy, with probably aggressive folds of growth but still being in a far end of the demand.
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
One of Sunergy quasar modules has 270W of power output with mono cells, which on average are above 19% conversion. The module is rated at 16.6%, the temp coefficient Pmax is -.42%, Sunpower has the the -.38% for their modules.
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
performance of any panels is based on the temperature coefficient. CdTe has in fact the best temperature coefficient of -0.25% meaning for each degree above 25 C they lose 0.25% of performance. Poly has -.48%, mono is better. The question however is why FS chose to put an accrual on product in hot climates? To me personally it is a surprise, so it is not matter of the material but the panel itself perhaps.
this is a fragment of the view from one analyst: ""The warranty issues are a big deal, to us at least," Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar wrote in an investor note Wednesday.
He said thin-film panels have a shorter track record than traditional panels, so the problems with First Solar's relatively young solar plants are cause for concern. The company was established in 1999, and most of its business has come in recent years.
"This is the first time First Solar is talking about this issue, although we have heard of this issue in our discussions with industry contacts," Kumar wrote. "The fact that First Solar is reporting performance issues in the field in the first few years and is accruing higher charges on an ongoing basis is worrying, as the hotter regions tend to make more sense for solar. We are concerned this may not be the last time we hear of the warranty-related issues for First Solar."
Kumar also said that the 550-megawatt Topaz Solar Farm the company is building east of San Luis Obispo, Calif., is being built at 586 megawatts, possibly to compensate for reduced output.
"We think there is some risk that this 'over spec' is to provide protection given the minimum energy performance specs that First Solar has committed to in the project given the lower confidence on field performance," he wrote." link below:
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
This is because module CTM loss varies amongst manufacturers. YGE modules have minimal loss, while SOL has large loss. In Lab YGE produced average efficiency of 19.7% for a cell and over 17% for a module. Look at the road map in YGE presentation http://bit.ly/zxmG5x
The Aftermath Of Countervailing Duties Takes Priority Over Earnings Reports: American Equipment Makers May Lose The Most [View article]
I am actually holding a long term, and adding to both.
The Aftermath Of Countervailing Duties Takes Priority Over Earnings Reports: American Equipment Makers May Lose The Most [View article]
Solar Plant Development Is The Next Phase Of The Price War [View article]
Solar Plant Development Is The Next Phase Of The Price War [View article]
REC has a decent poly operation and their Singapore plant is not bad. Unfortunately anything in Europe is expensive to operate. To me REC constitute attractive target for acquisition but there is still few balance sheet improvements available, before it will draw more eyes on it..
Suntech Will Not Impress In 2012 While Jinko May Join Ranks Of The Ordinary [View article]
A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
some old article of mine talks about it.
http://bit.ly/A5ekOw
A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
please have a look at the link, CSIQ has a ltc with GCL
http://bit.ly/zvtsux
A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
I quoted Yingli to have $0.73 by the Q4 2012; this price includes estimated $0.58 processing and $.15 for the polysilicon. However you do not have to look that far. Canadian Solar has $0.74 for Q1 for all included costs; this is because of the wafer procurement from GCL Poly. I suggest for you to look at those details, Jefferies CSIQ presentation. Some companies like Yingli have a very good change to get below $0.70 by Q4. In my article I listed FSLR achievements, average going rate for modules is 12.2% this year, this is by their own statements, this rate is to increase to 12.7% by year's end as stated.
Silicon technology has the largest R&D budget in the world. Look at the performance of Sunpower modules and cells as a simple example what can be done. This is where the Chinese are going with their products. At 40% better power ratings than FSLR, and costs which are a match (it is irrelevant what contributes to cost underutilization or not, companies work on margins)FSLR, is clearly curtailing its third party module sales, for lack of demand I would say, and Abound is upgrading because of clearly lagging in the conversion area and not having successful sales. The move for companies like Yingli and Trina is to go in cell technology from 19.7% to 21.3% by this year end. This is three times expected efficiency of FSLR’s improvement for this year, again while pricing is going down. It is debatable whether thin-film is the holy grail of the solar industry. A lot of companies actually exit the equipment market, AM example in US, Suntech in research and FSLR in CIGS, not having much success in the subject. Oerlikon sold Solar Division to Tokyo Electron for $275M, seemingly for a small price, Vecco stopped producing equipment for CIGS as well. As far as conversion is considered I am looking for silicon being the leader for next 5 years. However I see thin-film play alternative role in solar energy, with probably aggressive folds of growth but still being in a far end of the demand.
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
this is a fragment of the view from one analyst:
""The warranty issues are a big deal, to us at least," Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar wrote in an investor note Wednesday.
He said thin-film panels have a shorter track record than traditional panels, so the problems with First Solar's relatively young solar plants are cause for concern. The company was established in 1999, and most of its business has come in recent years.
"This is the first time First Solar is talking about this issue, although we have heard of this issue in our discussions with industry contacts," Kumar wrote. "The fact that First Solar is reporting performance issues in the field in the first few years and is accruing higher charges on an ongoing basis is worrying, as the hotter regions tend to make more sense for solar. We are concerned this may not be the last time we hear of the warranty-related issues for First Solar."
Kumar also said that the 550-megawatt Topaz Solar Farm the company is building east of San Luis Obispo, Calif., is being built at 586 megawatts, possibly to compensate for reduced output.
"We think there is some risk that this 'over spec' is to provide protection given the minimum energy performance specs that First Solar has committed to in the project given the lower confidence on field performance," he wrote."
link below:
Read more: http://bit.ly/w9q4yX
Ultimately my article is not about buying a stock, but about consideration of cost to produce the product at competitive pricing
Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
http://bit.ly/zxmG5x