Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Robert Dydo  

View Robert Dydo's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    In order to explain I need to distinct between two concepts, FiT and the grid connection.
    Right now, FiT is given by certification from METI and granted by the third application to utility. The contract is signed with METI and you get the FiT. 51GW grid connected and 17GW suspended have the FiT assigned.
    There is no new FiT with exception that current one being 32 YEN. On April 1 new FiT level will be given for the projects. Basically new applications filed now will have the FiT , which yet to be determined, since FIT will be awarded at the point of the connection to grid. If it takes two years to connect FiT will be given for the one at the time.
    Grid connections applications were suspended and with rules provided in the article restarted after the January 15th. I think Kyushu, the first one has started already. Those rules affect suspended 17GW. They will be working with unlimited curtailment for 7 utilities and 360 hours for three other utilities. No changes to FiT for either pool. However You can lose the project if you do not pay the connection fee or you not reached the COD on your project (this of course if you were given grid access).
    In February new rule will come when new FiT can apply. If module manufacturer changes, type silicon instead of thin-film or conversion changes as well, then new FiT will replace the contracted one. If CSIQ bought project rights to 40 YEN project, after February they would get 32 YEN FiT since chances are contractual agreement is changed with module manufacturer.
    I think if new FiT is below 25 YEN not many will be interested. Since this is not retroactive, I see no issues to 51GW and 17GW on FiT matters, but to 17GW on curtailment problems potentially.
    I see all projects of CSIQ to be fine on FiT, but open question remains on 137.3MW for Tohoku if the unlimited curtailment is attractive to them or not.
    Jan 17, 2015. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    FiT will change in March, but this change will not affect approved FiT for 51GW. If company has three applications and METI certification, no FiT can be changed. If the third application for connection is filed, and connection is not granted that FiT is assigned anyways. All existing projects including suspended have FiT, so the article did not have to address it. This wiill change in April, when connection is granted, you get the FiT at the time, but this is for the projects moving forward.
    Jan 16, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    Not sure if you listened to it, Ed describes Japan as 10GW for 2015, with 3-4GW in Q1 2015. I am surprised at Q1 estimate, since FiT in Japan does not have dynamic of end of the year rush. It must be the 180 days rule. I saw another developer announcing change to their timeline by 5 months early, so that is somewhat confirmed. Ed also suggested that pipeline will increase in Japan. He confirmed UK project(s). My data shows about 40MW based on deliveries for Q4, details in Q1.
    Jan 14, 2015. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    BNEF seems to agree with 2 year timeline. The scatter argument makes not much sense. It is about grid availability and there is 51GW of it and only 20GW or so installed.
    http://bit.ly/1u4ladc
    Jan 13, 2015. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    One can have a civil discussion on Contrarian Investor site, which is free and managed by people who are solar minded. Google it to find it. I run the forum as well, but it is fee based due to reporting we provide to solar investors and industry.
    So there is a choice. I have left yahoo long time ago when it started turning to zoo, this was about 3 years ago.
    Jan 13, 2015. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    Alex,
    I am looking for about $1.35 to $1.50. The currency is a concern for me as well as the gross margin. Based on sales of plants there is about $20M difference between Q3 and Q4 in value. It will be a great quarter looking at CEDR data for two months and I expect the same pace to continue with December deliveries. I doubt market has understanding of it, but it may not take the positive surprise to add value anyway.
    Jan 13, 2015. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    Alex, Canadian supplies so called kits to Japanese retail market. They have been a leader of this market in 2013. I have made some calculations in regard of earnings' potential in light of various curtailment scenarios. I found a lot of encouragement even for the 17GW, I assumed originally as difficult, when fully understanding the power generation and DC to AC transition for purpose of peak hours etc. Looking forward to the webcast tomorrow, so some of those ideas can be explained in detail by the company.
    Jan 13, 2015. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    @MSwyman,
    There are about 125 entities to date in Japan, which actively build or plant to build solar plants. I have also fraction of capacity covered by them, maybe 5GW out declared 20GW. 400MW places CSIQ at the top of the lineup of those known to me, but intuitively this makes not much sense when you think of 51GW approvals.
    98% of those companies are Japanese, including prefecture governments, GE is involved and couple of German names.
    Top of the list GE Energy, Kobe Bussan, Eurus, Marubeni, SB Energy, Renova, Kyocera and so on.
    Jan 12, 2015. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    Hi Boomers, thank you for the comment.
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    I would ask for comments regarding the article and on the subject of solar, please. Do not bring matters, which do not belong to those topics.
    Thank you
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    BTW, I was asked what type of margin was seen for Japan. I think to be conservative 20, but I would imagine it could be as high as 25%, depending on Yen.
    They are being build now so COGS for modules are probably around $0.52 per watt, half of what original setup was in Canada. Think of the value generated by energy sales. Just those 400MW of projects average FiT of 35 yen per Kwh. This is $118M in revenue per year times 20 years at 90% 20 year efficiency range $2.1B or 33% return on revenue 3 hours per day (335 days). Those sound like keepers.
    Jan 9, 2015. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    Both, Canadian Solar and Trina Solar, have been found to be ME (market economy) country owned entities by US DOC, International Trade Administration on memorandum dated December 31, 2014.
    United States Government considers PRC as NME (not market economy)
    http://bit.ly/1tTtCBB
    Quote p.13
    “Wholly Foreign-Owned Applicants
    Companies 3-6, 8, 19, and 21 in the above list provided evidence that they are wholly owned by a company located in a ME country. Moreover, the Department has no record evidence indicating that these companies are under the control of the government of China (“GOC”). For these reasons, it is not necessary for the Department to conduct a separate rate analysis to determine whether these companies are independent from government control.”
    List of companies and related numbers is on page 11.
    By all means US government considers Canadian as Canadian
    Jan 9, 2015. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks bounce as market rallies, Deutsche pounds table [View news story]
    Hi Jonathan, interesting that Deutsche Bank sees improvement in gross margins, but with exception of SunPower, he picks stocks which going to lose margins on supply/demand balancing. Even SunPower is an expensive proposition, which lingers in volume, due to high ASP based on high costs. Not sure how margins can come up in this equity, but I would leave this one to DB to sort.
    Lovely discussion on gas. What many forget that solar plants do not draw fuel at any price. After Capex you only maintain them. If one looks at the NG futures heading toward 9 year mark they sell gas at $4 average. Just about 200% more to compete with solar and forcefully forgetting hereditary fluctuation in fossil fuel prices. In Japan, prices are about 5 times of those in the US, and so are the FiT levels. While even the smartest bears on solar remember the flux of fossil pricing versus fixed nature of solar generation, they forget about distribution costs when they quote fossil benefits. That gas extraction at $3MBtU is going to add another $1 to $3 for moving along the pipes to destination point. One look at electric retail bill to see that distribution is as costly as the commodity itself, which in Japan wholesales at 4 times of the actual price just for overseas transport. Unfortunately, when it comes to the market, this deficiency in understanding it all is a cultivated form of exploitation, similar to telemarketing to elderly. Everyone knows it is wrong, but people are still doing it.
    Jan 9, 2015. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Great news for Canadian Solar
    http://bit.ly/14e1gps
    Jan 5, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    They use ocean ship lines, which is a very cost-efficient endeavour. Overall shipping costs are about 3 cents/watt and they are claimed on Opex. I would say 1 cent would be probably the top saving I see. Of course, the cost of moving material in, to build a module from Taiwan cells also offers some fractional savings.
    As far where is that money saved from oil going? We will need at least 3 to 6 months to understand the savings, by then oil can be back up. Like anything these days they trading oil derivatives, most of it being sold has not been even extracted.
    Operations are being curtail, at those prices,so it is hard to save as everyone including producers is trying to shield from losses.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
226 Comments
135 Likes