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Robert Dydo  

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  • The Coming End Of Chinese Solar Manufacturing Dominance [View article]
    What technology by the US companies hold advantage over Chinese?
    How big is the payroll influence on cost versus scale?
    The day SCTY produces first module Chinese will be having cost below $0.40 per watt.
    The power balance has never been off and away from the US. SunPower uses n-type wafers made by Comtec in Malaysia, a Chinese company. Their process involves copper instead of silver and produces high efficiency modules for the same efficiency for years at high costs. If anything Chinese are creeping up on SunPower. In fact Canadian has just destroyed market dominance in the US with massive portfolio, beating those companies and their project line ups.
    The article does not have facts but kudos for the bravery in creativity.
    Feb 4, 2015. 10:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    This rather interesting view, but I see no single indication of anything you put in this article as a fact occurring in real life. The economy is weakening based on what? If it did, for whatever bizarre reason, why companies with billions granted by banks in credits would not get the money? China is running a program making difficult for "some" company to get the business if they are not fit technologically or have financial limitations. Are you aware that bank is part of the equity partnership in Jinko's Power subsidiary?
    What do you mean by shut off from the US market, you mean tariff? When you say levered you mean leveraged? So, they cannot get the credit but they are highly leveraged? That is a contradiction, isn’t?
    The argument about 2011 as being the same scenario is a one about a dog barking during a rain, therefore when dog barks it is going to rain soon. No logic whatsoever. In fact, the reality you described does not exist.
    Industry got a glut of supply against lack of the demand; the demand broke not because of the credit crunch, but because politicians decided to save the money on green energy and to stop paying subsidies. Italy was the place when this started. Even that statement is relative. Since 2007, solar demand had grown every year with 2011 topping 2010 and 2012 topping 2011 etc. Most people who know the business suspect that a “winter” industry came to experience, was an artificially created scheme to kill deficiency globally but also kill mom and pop’ shops in Mainland.
    China started FiT program last year. Just about every example from the regime shows support to solar, starting with changes for the DG to fit “needs” of the industry. Crude has nothing to do with solar. This oldwife’s tale, which made no sense when was invented in 2007 by Deutsche Bank, I think, has very little sense now. Trina has already collected equity offering. TSL, has over $600M in cash. Jinko will have around $400M in cash and $300M in project assets by Q3.
    In your reply you say it makes sense to rasie the money to you, and you are? I would be worried that expressing public entities' position as own would be very dangerous, but expressing your own as a company's could be illegal.
    Sep 26, 2014. 09:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar: As Debts Come Due, $14 Billion In Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities [View article]
    $14.5B in contractual agreements for purchase of equipment and raw material, 90% of it with GCL. Contracts are negotiable, and they have been negotiated down to price per kg. As year goes buy pricing will change and so the obligation amount. Short term borrowing is recycled monthly, this amount went down from Q2 to Q3, bonds are up but that is 88M, worth around 60M now. Seem like someone got caught with their short last week, and now the damage control. Impressed amount of work on putting so much irrelevant information together to get the stock down. Congratulations
    Jan 7, 2013. 10:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    They will announce plans for yield co this year. I assume early 2016 could be the date. There are many ways how stock can benefit, operationally and market wise. EPS I suggest is not driven by yield so there is much of the price appreciation beyond it left.
    We should get the details in March, and if we see full strategy then we can analyze what that looks like. Nomura and Northland are talking about PTs ranging from $44 to $100.00 today, and both analysts have a back door to the company.
    My point is that you can get comfortably into the stock, and wait what is coming. Condition almost unheard of in the solar industry.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case [View article]
    I also see the $6 EPS as unrealistic objective. Even with Recurrent, and considering they will sell it I see about a $1.00 I am using 15% GM and 25% allocation for 2015. There is $900M in Canada as per NR and about $103M in the US own CSIQ batch.
    Before anything else is considered for sale project deficit is about 134.9MW for 2015 vs. 2014. Since majority of the projects sold in Q3 and Q4, currency impacts are already there. What we have to gain is 20% growth on module sales, where ASP must remain flat to overall 2014 (0.66) and projects sales can come from Japan, China, UK or US , but will not come from all if yield is real.
    I am waiting for March to figure this out, but I see 2015 as $4.50 or so,
    DTA could add substantial EPS in Q4, and make 2015 look like less income (but DTA can be added in 2015).
    It does not matter for 2015 as yield co and sale volumes can reach $6 in EPS in 2016.
    I think CSIQ will have around $560M in cash by Q1 (after the RE is absorbed and not including restricted). If RE portfolio is being sold, % of completion will help pay of the LCs. They can borrow up to 70% of project book, no issue here.
    Congrats, I think you covered very well the bear case collapse.
    Feb 6, 2015. 01:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    I am here because your article is a mix of assumptions and combination of events, which make no relative impact on solar. Not to care what you do on the market. I will explain why I think your rhetoric is not accurate:

    1. No economy with 7 to 8% GDP is weak.
    2. Tariffs do not impact all companies the same way. I know because I research exports. TSL is a second largest exporter of modules to the US, with tariffs or without them.
    3. I have been looking at those companies probably a lot longer than you have. If you think they are leveraged now, while profitable and increasing operational output, you missed the boat on negativity drive. Your YGE example why the stock is where it is only proves that YGE is a mess and market knows it. Not all Chinese solar companies are equals. There is a huge variable to them.
    4. Coal is on retreat being replaced by solar on the global scale. Mining licenses are cancelled in India. China promises to stop relying on coal by pumping money in to renewables.
    5. What data do you have that solar demand is crushing? I have seen nothing. If economy crushes, what is the reason? Give me one and how would affect solar.
    6. Sure, raising money is not a bad thing, but you are talking about no demand and raising money to help to cushion less than 100% utilization. A negative spin created on false premise. Just last week TSL said it couldn’t produce enough to meet the demand. CEO of CSIQ said two days ago that China is very hot. This is the guy would stay away from China looking after global interests first. When he says something is hot, it is piping hot.
    So one has a choice. Take a word of a CEO of an operational marvel among peers and actions of two-second best companies, or go along with your story?
    What is really suspicious in your story, both Trina and Jinko will have the most cash on record (TTM) in the coming quarter. Both, in the last six months have already done what you suggested. Your observation is completely out of timing, so why did you write it?
    Sep 26, 2014. 10:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Parabolic Rise Provides Excellent Short Opportunity [View article]
    CSIQ will make 0.47 per share in Q3. Your advice is completely irresponsible. Can you share what did you shorted with? Considering it takes 24 hours to post here, with last price above $19?
    Oct 8, 2013. 01:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar's Stock Is Likely To Lose 15% - 25% Of Its Shine In The Fall [View article]
    You expect the company, which made 0.36 during second quarter this year to make $0.49 per share for the full year in 2014? Even if they repeat this quarter four times it is $1.44 and PE of 12. This would be a poor performance by the way. I am not sure if you know what you are talking about with such a gross technical errors.
    Sep 18, 2013. 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Japan Crisis Means for Solar Stocks [View article]
    Well, China is going to double its solar objective to 10GW according to late article from Reuters this evening. The old world assumption about solar living off subsidies needs go to passage. Ironically the same Japan plans to add 400 billion yen in solar subs. Place where parity is right on the corner same as in Italy which is probably already at it. I guess the government there sees greater impact than armchair strategists providing scenarios similar to yours. Continue to write articles using phrases like "short lived", "cutting support", Use example of struggling European companies which will go bankrupt while trying to match low Asian costs. Press was trying to scare weak at heart with Q-cells the entire day. In the meantime Chinese will continue take over the market from 61% in 2010 to 73% in 2011. Solar industry is a fact. You may not like it and that is fine ,but one should never be ignorant about the facts. UK has 100MW market, this is what solar global industry has for one day of the year in capacity. Renesola sells that many modules in a quarter. Spain? 500MW this is what Suntech produces in modules per quarter. Global market this year is going to be in area of 22GW. Solar gets more affordable while other sources of energy become more expensive. These are facts.
    Mar 30, 2011. 01:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Industry's Problematic Capacity Expansion Rate [View article]
    Expansion is not a result of the demand, but existing capacity plus demand. Companies, which are now experts on capacity and have years in the business provide what they need to succeed. Start up and marketing gimmicks should not count in the same sentence.
    Do not forget Saudi Arabia plans from SunEdison.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    Your last paragraph says it all. You wrote an article about possibility. If you want to write financial articles you should focus on facts not fantasy. What-if-scenarios do not add credibility to you as a writer.
    Sep 26, 2014. 11:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of The Japanese Solar Boom While Buying Stocks [View article]
    I can’t disagree more. Japan is the best market for solar companies today, but it is not the only market or will remain best for ever. Not all companies are in Japan, and the market is not wide open as Europe used to be. There is a lot restrictions and tech savvy, which cannot be compared to places like India, which has acutely little qualified capacity. There are about 5 Chinese companies, which are doing remarkably well because of quality, brand, efficiency and yes the ASP they offer. Solar Industry is extremely dynamic. Those mentioned Chinese are global corporations. Not being there would be viewed as weakness, not strength. CSIQ has 125MW of plant development in Japan, and it is looking at 400MW. These are serious figures. Hanwha SolarOne is the second largest shipper to Japan in Q1 (after JA), and the stock sank 20% today. Nevertheless the company turned positive GM for the first time after 3 quarters due to high volume and ASP in Japan. The critics of the industry should stop assessing it as some passing mood or fashion statement. Solar is here to stay. Global governments are not considering tariffs against Chinese domination because this is flavor of the month or a particular hobby of one country; this is the future of unlimited opportunities and unprecedented growth. This is just beginning not the end. Like it or not the Chinese are the leaders and it seems even 18 out 24 EU voting countries agree to have them in Europe tariff free.
    May 31, 2013. 12:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar: Energy, But Not Oil [View article]
    Excellent article, Thank you.
    Feb 12, 2015. 02:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    I stipulate that Recurrent will be the principle yield co. everything listed in my table can sell in 2015 and it is not part of it. However in 2016, Japanese projects can be added or sold, and they will be in line of 300MW each year including 2017.. At the end of the 2016, there could be 1.3GW in yield plus whatever they harvest in projects from now till mid-2016 for sale and so on.
    To answer your second question $2.3 per watt is an average. Do not forget that for yieldco this is not the cost. The cost is COGS. I would not be surprised that particular setup is around $1.75/Wdc or $2.24/Wac. ITC credit of 30% dollar for dollar Federal and the State another 10% so you are looking at $0.90 in credits. Cost $1.32*117MWac you looking at $154M.
    Revenue of $0.05/kWh, 6 hours average maybe more, 365, for 90% on 20 year PPA is about 231M kWh at $0.05 this comes to be $11.55M/year. 20 years we have $231M. Maintenance is a $500K per year or $10M for 20 years. You pay no taxes and take the overage to another project. Essentially the whole revenue is cash flow; you end up with tax equity after deductions. IRR on the project is about 3%. Not the best but you can have two at 6.5% and all balance to not bad 5.5%
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    I think the pressure on the stock is related to lack of the replacement projects, at least on the paper and doubt of the EPS sustainability. Most if not all Chinese companies are still manufacturers, with low profile of earnings. CSIQ has high density of earnings from a finite portfolio and no tangible replacement to magnify necessary ratio. We have Japan, which is positive, but poorly understood with the changes. I think that stock price is being adjusted for the company to fail to repeat 2014 EPS in 2015. I personally think CSIQ has about $3 in earnings for 2015, without UK or Japan sales. I must think that Japanese sales are out of the picture as they could be yieldco projects. The possibility of not enough in the portfolio pushes yieldco away to 2016. This condition, something bankers would love to play, makes easy for industry to dump the stock today.
    I do not understand what is so celestial about the time frame to guide and disclose company steps for 2015 during March with exception of needing time, which only points to short-term dependency and at the same time fragility of that plan. This old routine opens door for speculators to explore and as we see it is explored. Speculators have a 50% chance to get it right and they do not have to worry about getting wrong until then. They can batter the stock to submission freely. If CSIQ has so much visibility, they should show the business strategy for 2015 now and explain details of the replacement portfolio, instead of vague generalizations. SUNE, a blob of debt and spent equity, dances with the grace of prima ballerina, pumping paper clip news of never to be erected projects and capacities, and market is buying it, moreover banks are buying it. The problem is, even as we know, what will happen by March is there enough pull to create excitement to get us back to proper valuation? This I do not know.
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment