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Robert Dydo

 
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  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    This rather interesting view, but I see no single indication of anything you put in this article as a fact occurring in real life. The economy is weakening based on what? If it did, for whatever bizarre reason, why companies with billions granted by banks in credits would not get the money? China is running a program making difficult for "some" company to get the business if they are not fit technologically or have financial limitations. Are you aware that bank is part of the equity partnership in Jinko's Power subsidiary?
    What do you mean by shut off from the US market, you mean tariff? When you say levered you mean leveraged? So, they cannot get the credit but they are highly leveraged? That is a contradiction, isn’t?
    The argument about 2011 as being the same scenario is a one about a dog barking during a rain, therefore when dog barks it is going to rain soon. No logic whatsoever. In fact, the reality you described does not exist.
    Industry got a glut of supply against lack of the demand; the demand broke not because of the credit crunch, but because politicians decided to save the money on green energy and to stop paying subsidies. Italy was the place when this started. Even that statement is relative. Since 2007, solar demand had grown every year with 2011 topping 2010 and 2012 topping 2011 etc. Most people who know the business suspect that a “winter” industry came to experience, was an artificially created scheme to kill deficiency globally but also kill mom and pop’ shops in Mainland.
    China started FiT program last year. Just about every example from the regime shows support to solar, starting with changes for the DG to fit “needs” of the industry. Crude has nothing to do with solar. This oldwife’s tale, which made no sense when was invented in 2007 by Deutsche Bank, I think, has very little sense now. Trina has already collected equity offering. TSL, has over $600M in cash. Jinko will have around $400M in cash and $300M in project assets by Q3.
    In your reply you say it makes sense to rasie the money to you, and you are? I would be worried that expressing public entities' position as own would be very dangerous, but expressing your own as a company's could be illegal.
    Sep 26, 2014. 09:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar: As Debts Come Due, $14 Billion In Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities [View article]
    $14.5B in contractual agreements for purchase of equipment and raw material, 90% of it with GCL. Contracts are negotiable, and they have been negotiated down to price per kg. As year goes buy pricing will change and so the obligation amount. Short term borrowing is recycled monthly, this amount went down from Q2 to Q3, bonds are up but that is 88M, worth around 60M now. Seem like someone got caught with their short last week, and now the damage control. Impressed amount of work on putting so much irrelevant information together to get the stock down. Congratulations
    Jan 7, 2013. 10:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    I am here because your article is a mix of assumptions and combination of events, which make no relative impact on solar. Not to care what you do on the market. I will explain why I think your rhetoric is not accurate:

    1. No economy with 7 to 8% GDP is weak.
    2. Tariffs do not impact all companies the same way. I know because I research exports. TSL is a second largest exporter of modules to the US, with tariffs or without them.
    3. I have been looking at those companies probably a lot longer than you have. If you think they are leveraged now, while profitable and increasing operational output, you missed the boat on negativity drive. Your YGE example why the stock is where it is only proves that YGE is a mess and market knows it. Not all Chinese solar companies are equals. There is a huge variable to them.
    4. Coal is on retreat being replaced by solar on the global scale. Mining licenses are cancelled in India. China promises to stop relying on coal by pumping money in to renewables.
    5. What data do you have that solar demand is crushing? I have seen nothing. If economy crushes, what is the reason? Give me one and how would affect solar.
    6. Sure, raising money is not a bad thing, but you are talking about no demand and raising money to help to cushion less than 100% utilization. A negative spin created on false premise. Just last week TSL said it couldn’t produce enough to meet the demand. CEO of CSIQ said two days ago that China is very hot. This is the guy would stay away from China looking after global interests first. When he says something is hot, it is piping hot.
    So one has a choice. Take a word of a CEO of an operational marvel among peers and actions of two-second best companies, or go along with your story?
    What is really suspicious in your story, both Trina and Jinko will have the most cash on record (TTM) in the coming quarter. Both, in the last six months have already done what you suggested. Your observation is completely out of timing, so why did you write it?
    Sep 26, 2014. 10:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Parabolic Rise Provides Excellent Short Opportunity [View article]
    CSIQ will make 0.47 per share in Q3. Your advice is completely irresponsible. Can you share what did you shorted with? Considering it takes 24 hours to post here, with last price above $19?
    Oct 8, 2013. 01:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar's Stock Is Likely To Lose 15% - 25% Of Its Shine In The Fall [View article]
    You expect the company, which made 0.36 during second quarter this year to make $0.49 per share for the full year in 2014? Even if they repeat this quarter four times it is $1.44 and PE of 12. This would be a poor performance by the way. I am not sure if you know what you are talking about with such a gross technical errors.
    Sep 18, 2013. 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Japan Crisis Means for Solar Stocks [View article]
    Well, China is going to double its solar objective to 10GW according to late article from Reuters this evening. The old world assumption about solar living off subsidies needs go to passage. Ironically the same Japan plans to add 400 billion yen in solar subs. Place where parity is right on the corner same as in Italy which is probably already at it. I guess the government there sees greater impact than armchair strategists providing scenarios similar to yours. Continue to write articles using phrases like "short lived", "cutting support", Use example of struggling European companies which will go bankrupt while trying to match low Asian costs. Press was trying to scare weak at heart with Q-cells the entire day. In the meantime Chinese will continue take over the market from 61% in 2010 to 73% in 2011. Solar industry is a fact. You may not like it and that is fine ,but one should never be ignorant about the facts. UK has 100MW market, this is what solar global industry has for one day of the year in capacity. Renesola sells that many modules in a quarter. Spain? 500MW this is what Suntech produces in modules per quarter. Global market this year is going to be in area of 22GW. Solar gets more affordable while other sources of energy become more expensive. These are facts.
    GLTA
    Mar 30, 2011. 01:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    Your last paragraph says it all. You wrote an article about possibility. If you want to write financial articles you should focus on facts not fantasy. What-if-scenarios do not add credibility to you as a writer.
    Sep 26, 2014. 11:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of The Japanese Solar Boom While Buying Stocks [View article]
    I can’t disagree more. Japan is the best market for solar companies today, but it is not the only market or will remain best for ever. Not all companies are in Japan, and the market is not wide open as Europe used to be. There is a lot restrictions and tech savvy, which cannot be compared to places like India, which has acutely little qualified capacity. There are about 5 Chinese companies, which are doing remarkably well because of quality, brand, efficiency and yes the ASP they offer. Solar Industry is extremely dynamic. Those mentioned Chinese are global corporations. Not being there would be viewed as weakness, not strength. CSIQ has 125MW of plant development in Japan, and it is looking at 400MW. These are serious figures. Hanwha SolarOne is the second largest shipper to Japan in Q1 (after JA), and the stock sank 20% today. Nevertheless the company turned positive GM for the first time after 3 quarters due to high volume and ASP in Japan. The critics of the industry should stop assessing it as some passing mood or fashion statement. Solar is here to stay. Global governments are not considering tariffs against Chinese domination because this is flavor of the month or a particular hobby of one country; this is the future of unlimited opportunities and unprecedented growth. This is just beginning not the end. Like it or not the Chinese are the leaders and it seems even 18 out 24 EU voting countries agree to have them in Europe tariff free.
    May 31, 2013. 12:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Japanese Project Portfolio And New Policy Changes [View article]
    Both, Canadian Solar and Trina Solar, have been found to be ME (market economy) country owned entities by US DOC, International Trade Administration on memorandum dated December 31, 2014.
    United States Government considers PRC as NME (not market economy)
    http://bit.ly/1tTtCBB
    Quote p.13
    “Wholly Foreign-Owned Applicants
    Companies 3-6, 8, 19, and 21 in the above list provided evidence that they are wholly owned by a company located in a ME country. Moreover, the Department has no record evidence indicating that these companies are under the control of the government of China (“GOC”). For these reasons, it is not necessary for the Department to conduct a separate rate analysis to determine whether these companies are independent from government control.”
    List of companies and related numbers is on page 11.
    By all means US government considers Canadian as Canadian
    Jan 9, 2015. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    one needs to separate solar vs. oil as an operational aspect and what market does with this relationship. Oil and solar operationally do not correlate, but the market, individuals managers of energy funds follow scripted distributions of holdings, making it to follow. Solar stocks react to everything negative about China, SEC judges blocking audit firms, utility companies in Japan refusing new applications for grid connections. If there is something out there to be scarred abut solar stocks double the fear in their trading. I do not write my articles for traders, but long term investors. If one feels market is right would have sold CSIQ at $2 in 2012. This is why I never or hardly follow markets.
    Nov 30, 2014. 07:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Hi Dr. Duru,
    He is the only negative factor attributed to selling. If he produced this to rationalize selling or was contracted to help it, I see no other reason floating around for it. I do not think he is a sole entity credited with 32M selling. There is simply more than we know, to what happened. I appreciate your comments to help out from a technical point of view, but the event of this magnitude to create technical collapse, is as rare as the lack of fundamental reasoning for it.
    Nov 25, 2014. 09:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Do you own shares of the CSIQ?
    The reason I ask is as an investor you have a different set of triggers, when your money would be at risk than a simple observer. If you do, do you watch the market every day and sell and buy when price moves or do you have a stop-loss set? If someone says the stock is short and 10% of value is gone, how many people say, no that is not the case and continue to hold, they are trying to preserve their money. There could be so many reasons to drop the price, you could write a small novel on it. The article does not attempt to answer this question. It points that thesis to sell short was a stretch made to look real, and people lost money for nothing when panic set in.
    Nov 24, 2014. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Remains The Most Undervalued Stock In The Chinese Solar Portfolio [View article]
    I have written analysis on Gordon Johnson's reasons to sell Canadian
    http://bit.ly/1v3EWYJ
    Nov 24, 2014. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    Again, no one can know the future for certain. Anything can happen, but some possibilities are more probable than others"
    Nobody who says something like that has a single share in the market either short or long.
    You cannot invest with a strategy like this.
    I wasted my time here and that is a fact not possibility.
    Sep 26, 2014. 11:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Parabolic Rise Provides Excellent Short Opportunity [View article]
    You claim you short the stock, so question is at what price? No, it is simple to say that is what makes market. You do not know the company but you suggest to sell short because stock went up? You called margins as red, while the company had 12.8% GM, you see unrealistic profitability on what? They sold $92M solar plants at 25% GM to be part of the Q3 revenue. $12M loss was caused by $20M Forex. Condition, which has changed in Q3.
    Good luck with your short, but certainly if you do not know facts you play with fire.
    Oct 8, 2013. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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