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Robert Dydo  

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  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Canadian Solar remains my fundamental pick. However, as my article describes, I am not sure about all the details. I am aware of their project portfolio, but not know a lot about CAFD. My article explains this.

    FSLR has already gone through yieldco establishment and can go back to making money. They have 1.5GW of contracted and sold projects, which they had 200MW cashed in on Dec 31, 2014. That is about $3B left to sell. They also have 1.6GW of projects , which are not sold (Apple bought PPA in one of those). They added 370MW in Chile and 200MW in UAE in last two months. There is at least another 500MW in Chile and 5GW in India from known to me projects and short term objectives.

    To your point FSLR has three times business size, and plenty of opportunity now to grow its EPS. CSIQ no so much until yieldco is established. They also need to work on efficiency as they are staying behind a bit.
    Jul 5, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Erkin, all past transactions will be executed and remain financed. No new transactions for the Bank from Tuesday.
    You are really asking if FSLR can get financing. For the company , which does not pay interest expenses in any meaningful way and has probably the highest corporate score for credit eligibility I would say great opportunity for banking institutions get behind FSLR.
    I doubt this is an obstacle. I would say that may explain some of the selling in the name only adding to opportunity in the name and may explain why RBC broker wrote such poor analysis on FSLR. RBC is one of the largest banks in the world and certainly one of the largest in Canada. Is this a reaction of not getting FSLR business?
    Jul 5, 2015. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    @MikesT,
    Roof top is certainly where FSLR has no viable presence. Their TetraSun Malaysian line is suppose to start filling the gap, but it remains a back burner business today. Yieldco is a key to hold to value in utility sector and I disagree that FSLR is losing that space. That space is vast enough to accommodate many operators and prices do not tell the story as they shrink while MWs grow. I know the industry well enough to tell you that FSLR margins will continue to lead, when selling plants. This is a cost mechanism, which is better for them than anyone, and I know a lot about it.
    Retailing modules via third party re-sellers or lease operators are not FSLR business objective. This is very costly business even for the direct supplier like SPWR, which has poor output for invested dollars. Everyone you quote is deficient in profitability when it comes to third party installer business. CSIQ and JKS sell modules to third parties. FSLR does not have objective to be a third party seller. Their capacity expansion will support their own business first.
    Still, the rooftop business is certainly growing, but I do not believe it is eliminating utility model. I think FSLR has shown ability for commercial applications and knowing industry cycles, you will find FSLR soon enough also engaging in this metric. They focus on their competency today and will continue to do so in the future exploring other paths. They can as they have the money to do so.
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    At MikesT,
    The market is reactionary and it is influenced by strong interest of institutional players. If you consider the market and given price as the representation of fundamentals of any company, you would not have a need for analysis or presence of an opportunity. We all know that prices are bias, but fundamental driven value is objective.
    SUNE has no fundamental value and its SP is built on the bias from institutional ownership. FSLR has value, which currently is beyond its market price thus offers opportunity in the stock. Those are operational facts about each name. Of course either condition does not merit price adjustments, since their bias and thank goodness, this gives us opportunities for long term investing in value and not hype created by someone's interests, read SUNE.

    Lastly growth is measured by percentage, but it is measured within industry. The industry is growing and FSLR remains at the top of the pack of three to four names. I will be first to tell you if FSLR breaks off from that top. This is not the case now.
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    Mikestesla, I doubt you have access to it. Your quotes and firm belief that it will impact CSIQ speaks to contrary what data shows.
    I think you ego got into the equation. It is not about you writing about it, but about sources and views you quote, which make no impact on CSIQ. You certainly make no impact on anything at all. Frankly, I make no impact on anyone either. I offer an opinion only and you are right my opinions are as good as fundamentals I write about, not stock prices at given time. I wrote buy articles on Canadian in 2013
    http://bit.ly/1ggsrq3
    and on JKS,
    http://bit.ly/1ggsrGh
    Now check prices on those companies then, and rate me. LOL
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    When it comes to Chinese modules and lower ASP for them, it certainly has impacted the global scene for ASP of project watt. However in reality, Chinese companies, to a degree of CSIQ, hardly penetrated global market when it comes to solar plants. FSLR is not alone experiencing shrink of the margins. It is a natural process in any industry as it matures. This is why you have yieldco vehicles in play, to preserve value what companies sell at 20%< less margins, but can keep them now for what the produce in energy and IRR, and makes a lot more money in the long run.
    FSLR improves efficiency and cost by adding capacity, size reduces costs at 20% every time you double the size of your lines. 1% efficiency does some 10% cost reductions.
    FSLR will work with the margins and build more plants and will feed them to yieldco. FSLR will produce profit form that process, and it is possibly the best company to benefit from yieldco today.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    The revenue represents relationship to selling price. You need to use MW sold and margin related to solar plants to measure the company's growth. It is pretty lame to say that the company is not growing if the product is selling at 20% less average year to year. Flat revenue size represents 20% growth.
    When selling third party modules your costs can be lower especially on financial costs and on Opex to a degree, however revenues do not make margins in the solar plant business or make them better due to volume. Gross margin is a fixed factor unrelated to quantity of MW. They are almost constant as opex associated with plant building grows with amount of plants you build. Margins moreover are related to geographies of projects. Thus COGS in solar business will have different levels.
    Of course 20% of $4B is less than 20% of $6B. You want the company to keep its money. SUNE has no ability to keep anything, as it makes nothing.

    Of course we are comparing FSLR to other companies. You have idolized SUNE, which cannot make a dime even on gross margin, never mind adding opex. Their development produces 8% margin, FSLR produces 8% margin on maintenance of solar plants. and 20% range on selling plants.
    SUNE uses third party OEM Flextronics modules accommodating Flex gross margin. FSLR uses own modules, which get cheaper due to capacity expansions and efficiency increase.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    @MikeTesla,
    As a matter of fact I know more than rest of you. I run a market intelligence firm, which uses Chinese custom data to establish , which company export were. Therefore, everything in your post makes no impact on CSIQ.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    I track import to Canada and there are none in 3 months and CSIQ imported 8MW in 2014. If you compare this to what they sold in Canada, you will see as not important. Secondly CSIQ is closing projects in Canada and that capacity is available for global demand.

    The reason FSLR has low earnings because they have stock projects up for yieldco and also because average prices are lower. It is not the revenue but margin which drives business. 14GW portfolio is 6GW more than second competitor. FSLR needs to increase own capacity to speed up project development. They are using own module capacity for projects and there is a limited capacity to benefit from the global demand as in third party sales because of it.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    GeoPax, I closed my position because Yieldco is a learning experience for the market. Canadian will not have EPS from Yieldco, they will have GL transfers. Their balance sheet will be good, but their income statement will not show solar plant sales. In the current state of market understanding of yieldco as a value that is a risk to stock price.
    Beyond it, I need details, and there is no rush to be in the stock when details are announced. I consider FSLR already leaving the start line and the stock has not got anything from yieldco value. It is hard to believe that CSIQ will be considered in different way.
    As you see nothing is a fundamental shift, it is a market perception and my interpretation of it.
    Jul 2, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    We will see, but I can pretty much state that FSLR will borrow for less and borrow less. It will be profitable. SUNE borrows to pay for own operations, the company cannot make gross profit to even pay for own debt interest. I am staying away. When carpet is pulled there is nothing to hold on to. It could happen when the second yieldco floats.
    SUNE is in the uptrend but it is a balloon full of hot air. FSLR, SPWR and CSIQ are solid organizations making money from own businesses not from selling equity and borrowing.
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    We have soft market and fear mongering managing stock prices.
    I have seen this before and probably will see more of it. Those behaviors pass. I would be always hopeful to time the market, but sometimes it is tough to do so.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Selected Solar Stocks Ahead Of Second Quarter [View article]
    CSIQ makes modules in Canada. Canada tariffs are nothing. Nobody is exporting modules form China in three months since March anyway. If oil is the reason, it is good opportunity as oil has nothing to do with solar. I disagree that FSLR has no projects. It has plenty of projects, and th worry i would have be its capacity. ASP is going to go up in H2 potentially and yieldco will protect ASP for sponsors.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Yawns At JA Solar Chairman's 'Go Private' Offer [View article]
    My reply is for reasons of truth. I would normally not bothered disputing opinions about me on SA. SA is about the subject of the article. However, when you write articles you get abused frequently, including your integrity.

    You left the site when CSIQ was at $10 and I held the CSIQ already after I sold JASO in May after one very successful trade. You can see articles I wrote here and on my site. I wrote one dedicated article to Trina in 40 articles I written. To state I pumped one stock and say it was TSL is truly false. I have held many of the Chinese stocks in last few years at any given time. I traded them, but I always returned to CSIQ and had experienced the best return ever, similar to what stock did in 2013 700 to 800% return was my return. I continued to benefit from it until recently.
    Telling half truths or band reality was and still is considered an offense on SPVI. Abuse was equally not permitted. You have left the site as you did not want to pay for it, which was a choice. Choice was always and will be celebrated as long as it is not turned to abuse or a lie and rules are followed.
    I am disappointed after having private correspondence with you during your time at SPVI and shortly after explaining your reasons why leaving to conclude with this debate.
    I wish you all the best and will not engage in another in the future.
    Robert
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Yawns At JA Solar Chairman's 'Go Private' Offer [View article]
    Boss, have you not left the forum in July 2013 when we went to subscription?
    I already had CSIQ in $5s at the time. All the people in the forum know exactly how and what I did in those years. How could you know?
    All those years I felt there was no resentment when you left, but I guess something went a miss. I was not aware.
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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