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Robert Dydo  

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  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    My article is not about consolidated SunEdison. It is specifically about the developer, the company, which sell projects to third parties and drop projects into TERP. With the exception of the reference to FYE 2014 results Q4 2014 and Q4 2015 are financial quotes pertaining to SunEdison DevCo only. I would suggest listening to presentation for the fourth time and this why:
    1. My article does not discuss gross margins. It reflects on operating expenses. I know you have no idea about accounting because you cannot tell the difference. Drops to TERP are recognized on investing part of the cash flow. SunEdison receives this as cash, never using income statement. They refer to it as a cash margin. I compare cash margin to what they did for operating expense in Q4 2014 and what they will do in Q4 2015. SunEdison is. Based on the operating expense improvement they need to take back $243M. Again if you knew accounting, you would know how difficult that is.
    2. SunEdison DevCo ‘s value of systems is $3B, and liability against is $3.2B. This means if all of those projects are sold to 3P or dropped to TERP its gross margin or cash margins is only 11% from 20%. TERP borrowing is an additional $1.6B plus $800M in the bond they sold at 5.87%. The presentation shows this very well on page 17 of Q4 2014 results for SUNE.
    3. The Final blow to your accounting knowledge. $1.5B warehouse facility is a cluster of borrowing “arranged” by Sun DevCo for “TERP” to accommodate drops of projects, in case TERP Is short of cash. This is a cluster of lenders willing to lend money to TERP to get SUNE Devco projects. A fancy word for a line of credit.
    Apr 10, 2015. 04:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Your emotions are causing you to be confused. 2000MW is installation rate. This means SunEdison in 2015 will process 2GW of projects including construction. They will sell 300MW to 3P and drop 425MW to TERP. They will keep 792MW on their balance sheet. If you look back at my article, I recognize $0.40 per watt from the combination of sale and drop, which gives SunEdison DevDo $290M cash. Recently dropped projects from UK had a $1.70 ASP, at $0.40 cash margin, means they have 23.5% using my figures. In order to hold projects on their balance sheet, they need to invest own cash at 20%. I calculated at $1.5 COGS per watt 792MW as $237M. They need that money. So this is a capital expense seen on the balance. Same as the construction of projects. I do not even bother about those loans, as I assume they will simply cycle through them as they sell other projects and regain leverage. The issue is clear. They are paying for operations from debt and selling equity. If you are an accountant I am stunned, you do not know this.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:10 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Transforming Into An Industry Leader [View article]
    To the author,
    There is no problem to celebrate great company and highlight its undervalued condition, but I am curious what author wanted to tell the readers that we could possibly miss after we read four prior pieces?
    Some corrections are in order. Canadian Solar shipped more modules than Jinko, and if you eliminate those sent to own projects, even JA Solar runs only 18MW behind Jinko. The company has great margins, but they are driven by energy sales at 50 to 60% gross margins and supplemented with retainage sales.
    I think it would be prudent to understand detail like this, before referring to manufacturing cost, those are different things. JKS cost is a record low as much as Jinko's ASPs are low among top tier names. Still their GM is best among them. The only observation I would have you can lower you costs but it is hard to raise your prices.
    What issues Chinese industry has that the American industry does not? I suppose if the US did not put tariffs in place, the issues would not exist and 80% global domination would turn to 90%. Outside of FSLR and SPWR , there is no American industry and the only reason those companies trade at higher evaluations is an artificial value assignment to being American, while making modules in Malaysia. As Jonathan pointed out, wise strategy in times of political bigotry for Jinko to pick this spot.
    Sounds like author would be the only one surprised about Jinko not being second in module shipments, as anyone who read guidance of each company would know that Jinko is the only company, which guided less than Yingli by some 100MW. Trina, Canadian and JA Solar, all have guided more volume than Yingli, thus subsequently more than Jinko. What does this metric do anyway? Yingli, while managed to clean up its balance sheet in Q4, has become a victim of being Yingli using its income statement as evidence. All volume leaders from the past now are in receivership, and Trina who is the leader now, based on its financial analysis has the least attractive operating format, so being big means not a lot as a metric for the purpose of investing.
    I have couple of questions: How did the author figured that their pool of financing is deepening? Was it shallow before? Sure there are few more releases these days, but financing has never been a problem for those companies, just look at Yingli again. What does this mean about efficiency in utility scale being ok and not having good cost structure in DG? Is there a metric somewhere so we can tell? I cannot recall Jinko's costs per solar plant watt, perhaps because Jinko never sold one. Why their DG would be a problem in the future? JKS is selling 280W modules made at $0.45 per watt for below $0.60 per watt and retailing modules in China, to quote Jonathan loosely as being Chinese "SolarCity".
    On one hand I read about best margins, producing excellent results as per author, so I am curious where is that low-efficiency live as a negative factor in the company's results? Even better question, how is that high efficiency contribute to the bottom line of the solar-plant selling, retail leasing and tariff-free roaming SPWR that the company will go negative in net income this quarter? Please do not say loss is due to yield as JKS does not sell plants either. The answer is it does not. Efficiency is a strategy of relating market need with demand. The efficiency dial will turn as it is needed, that simple.
    Otherwise thank you for popularizing solar industry
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming End Of Chinese Solar Manufacturing Dominance [View article]
    What technology by the US companies hold advantage over Chinese?
    How big is the payroll influence on cost versus scale?
    The day SCTY produces first module Chinese will be having cost below $0.40 per watt.
    The power balance has never been off and away from the US. SunPower uses n-type wafers made by Comtec in Malaysia, a Chinese company. Their process involves copper instead of silver and produces high efficiency modules for the same efficiency for years at high costs. If anything Chinese are creeping up on SunPower. In fact Canadian has just destroyed market dominance in the US with massive portfolio, beating those companies and their project line ups.
    The article does not have facts but kudos for the bravery in creativity.
    Feb 4, 2015. 10:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    This rather interesting view, but I see no single indication of anything you put in this article as a fact occurring in real life. The economy is weakening based on what? If it did, for whatever bizarre reason, why companies with billions granted by banks in credits would not get the money? China is running a program making difficult for "some" company to get the business if they are not fit technologically or have financial limitations. Are you aware that bank is part of the equity partnership in Jinko's Power subsidiary?
    What do you mean by shut off from the US market, you mean tariff? When you say levered you mean leveraged? So, they cannot get the credit but they are highly leveraged? That is a contradiction, isn’t?
    The argument about 2011 as being the same scenario is a one about a dog barking during a rain, therefore when dog barks it is going to rain soon. No logic whatsoever. In fact, the reality you described does not exist.
    Industry got a glut of supply against lack of the demand; the demand broke not because of the credit crunch, but because politicians decided to save the money on green energy and to stop paying subsidies. Italy was the place when this started. Even that statement is relative. Since 2007, solar demand had grown every year with 2011 topping 2010 and 2012 topping 2011 etc. Most people who know the business suspect that a “winter” industry came to experience, was an artificially created scheme to kill deficiency globally but also kill mom and pop’ shops in Mainland.
    China started FiT program last year. Just about every example from the regime shows support to solar, starting with changes for the DG to fit “needs” of the industry. Crude has nothing to do with solar. This oldwife’s tale, which made no sense when was invented in 2007 by Deutsche Bank, I think, has very little sense now. Trina has already collected equity offering. TSL, has over $600M in cash. Jinko will have around $400M in cash and $300M in project assets by Q3.
    In your reply you say it makes sense to rasie the money to you, and you are? I would be worried that expressing public entities' position as own would be very dangerous, but expressing your own as a company's could be illegal.
    Sep 26, 2014. 09:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar: As Debts Come Due, $14 Billion In Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities [View article]
    $14.5B in contractual agreements for purchase of equipment and raw material, 90% of it with GCL. Contracts are negotiable, and they have been negotiated down to price per kg. As year goes buy pricing will change and so the obligation amount. Short term borrowing is recycled monthly, this amount went down from Q2 to Q3, bonds are up but that is 88M, worth around 60M now. Seem like someone got caught with their short last week, and now the damage control. Impressed amount of work on putting so much irrelevant information together to get the stock down. Congratulations
    Jan 7, 2013. 10:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar And A Yieldco [View article]
    This does not work like this. Think of yieldco as company A, which is owned by CSIQ, think of initial project portfolio as company B, which is also owned by CSIQ. CSIQ owns 100% of both.
    Company A sell shares during IPO, and buys interest in company B with proceeds. The sale of shares of company A adds new owners to company A, reducing CSIQ ownership to say 70%. Proceeds from selling shares of company A buy interest in company B, adding ownership to that company, reducing CSIQ to 70% ownership. Now CSIQ owns less of company A and company B.

    Company A is a reporting entity for company B, and CSIQ is a reporting for company A, due to majority of ownership in it.
    Yieldco IPO is not a spin off to new company. It is sale of the equity in specific portfolio of projects only.
    I hope this helps.
    Apr 6, 2015. 11:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SunEdison's Wind Ambitions Will Hold The Company Back [View article]
    I think there is a logical error in stacking up the efficiency of a solar cell against the technological profile of the windmill. There is nothing finite about wind power technology just because it is a mechanical design versus the photovoltaic effect of a chemical/ physical composition of a material. Consider the design of the combustible engine or wheel in last 50 years. Wind turbines have plenty to go, and this is only a beginning. Now your graph is old, and the fact you are using the price of $0.74 per watt while cells are at below $0.30/w signals you are not that familiar with current costs. If you are not familiar with costs how can you argue cost benefits? Second, should you not explain how either cost compare to produce one kWh of energy? Your graph compares apples to oranges.
    Finally your article is not conclusive, offers little to no facts to say why in fact SunEdison should not invest in wind. Where are figures that lead the reader to this conclusion?
    I would suggest research subjects of your articles in depth. In result, you will find completely different outcome than many of your writings suggest, including this one.
    Apr 5, 2015. 06:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    They will announce plans for yield co this year. I assume early 2016 could be the date. There are many ways how stock can benefit, operationally and market wise. EPS I suggest is not driven by yield so there is much of the price appreciation beyond it left.
    We should get the details in March, and if we see full strategy then we can analyze what that looks like. Nomura and Northland are talking about PTs ranging from $44 to $100.00 today, and both analysts have a back door to the company.
    My point is that you can get comfortably into the stock, and wait what is coming. Condition almost unheard of in the solar industry.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case [View article]
    I also see the $6 EPS as unrealistic objective. Even with Recurrent, and considering they will sell it I see about a $1.00 I am using 15% GM and 25% allocation for 2015. There is $900M in Canada as per NR and about $103M in the US own CSIQ batch.
    Before anything else is considered for sale project deficit is about 134.9MW for 2015 vs. 2014. Since majority of the projects sold in Q3 and Q4, currency impacts are already there. What we have to gain is 20% growth on module sales, where ASP must remain flat to overall 2014 (0.66) and projects sales can come from Japan, China, UK or US , but will not come from all if yield is real.
    I am waiting for March to figure this out, but I see 2015 as $4.50 or so,
    DTA could add substantial EPS in Q4, and make 2015 look like less income (but DTA can be added in 2015).
    It does not matter for 2015 as yield co and sale volumes can reach $6 in EPS in 2016.
    I think CSIQ will have around $560M in cash by Q1 (after the RE is absorbed and not including restricted). If RE portfolio is being sold, % of completion will help pay of the LCs. They can borrow up to 70% of project book, no issue here.
    Congrats, I think you covered very well the bear case collapse.
    Feb 6, 2015. 01:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Weakening Economy May Lead To Secondary Offerings For Chinese Solars Ahead [View article]
    I am here because your article is a mix of assumptions and combination of events, which make no relative impact on solar. Not to care what you do on the market. I will explain why I think your rhetoric is not accurate:

    1. No economy with 7 to 8% GDP is weak.
    2. Tariffs do not impact all companies the same way. I know because I research exports. TSL is a second largest exporter of modules to the US, with tariffs or without them.
    3. I have been looking at those companies probably a lot longer than you have. If you think they are leveraged now, while profitable and increasing operational output, you missed the boat on negativity drive. Your YGE example why the stock is where it is only proves that YGE is a mess and market knows it. Not all Chinese solar companies are equals. There is a huge variable to them.
    4. Coal is on retreat being replaced by solar on the global scale. Mining licenses are cancelled in India. China promises to stop relying on coal by pumping money in to renewables.
    5. What data do you have that solar demand is crushing? I have seen nothing. If economy crushes, what is the reason? Give me one and how would affect solar.
    6. Sure, raising money is not a bad thing, but you are talking about no demand and raising money to help to cushion less than 100% utilization. A negative spin created on false premise. Just last week TSL said it couldn’t produce enough to meet the demand. CEO of CSIQ said two days ago that China is very hot. This is the guy would stay away from China looking after global interests first. When he says something is hot, it is piping hot.
    So one has a choice. Take a word of a CEO of an operational marvel among peers and actions of two-second best companies, or go along with your story?
    What is really suspicious in your story, both Trina and Jinko will have the most cash on record (TTM) in the coming quarter. Both, in the last six months have already done what you suggested. Your observation is completely out of timing, so why did you write it?
    Sep 26, 2014. 10:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Parabolic Rise Provides Excellent Short Opportunity [View article]
    CSIQ will make 0.47 per share in Q3. Your advice is completely irresponsible. Can you share what did you shorted with? Considering it takes 24 hours to post here, with last price above $19?
    Oct 8, 2013. 01:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar's Stock Is Likely To Lose 15% - 25% Of Its Shine In The Fall [View article]
    You expect the company, which made 0.36 during second quarter this year to make $0.49 per share for the full year in 2014? Even if they repeat this quarter four times it is $1.44 and PE of 12. This would be a poor performance by the way. I am not sure if you know what you are talking about with such a gross technical errors.
    Sep 18, 2013. 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Japan Crisis Means for Solar Stocks [View article]
    Well, China is going to double its solar objective to 10GW according to late article from Reuters this evening. The old world assumption about solar living off subsidies needs go to passage. Ironically the same Japan plans to add 400 billion yen in solar subs. Place where parity is right on the corner same as in Italy which is probably already at it. I guess the government there sees greater impact than armchair strategists providing scenarios similar to yours. Continue to write articles using phrases like "short lived", "cutting support", Use example of struggling European companies which will go bankrupt while trying to match low Asian costs. Press was trying to scare weak at heart with Q-cells the entire day. In the meantime Chinese will continue take over the market from 61% in 2010 to 73% in 2011. Solar industry is a fact. You may not like it and that is fine ,but one should never be ignorant about the facts. UK has 100MW market, this is what solar global industry has for one day of the year in capacity. Renesola sells that many modules in a quarter. Spain? 500MW this is what Suntech produces in modules per quarter. Global market this year is going to be in area of 22GW. Solar gets more affordable while other sources of energy become more expensive. These are facts.
    Mar 30, 2011. 01:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Order To Be Viable, SunEdison's Strategy Must Deliver Operating Profit [View article]
    Rognola, thank you.
    There are a lot of questions about yield, but I actually like TERP. SUNE the developer is the concern. I do not want to guess with my money if they can make it work. CSIQ and FSLR have healthy business structures that is a critical difference. High net income ratios will help to keep profit format on one side and use yield vehicle to collect cash on investing side of the cash flow. CSIQ is my choice as they are half of FSLR value, but some people worry about Chinese manufacture more than Malaysian one, so FSLR is also good one.
    I wrote article on CSIQ yield formation using SUNE and TERP model. FSLR and SPWR jv is more complicated to start, but may allow each company sell rather than drop projects, due to minority interest in reporting entity. I am not sure, but I think so.
    Exciting times for solar for sure
    Apr 10, 2015. 07:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment