Robert Freedland

Visa: Why I Sold All of My Shares

Visa is now at $80.64. Congratulations to all of you who hung in there with your shares! That doesn't change my basic strategy of limiting losses with all investments I make. If you don't like that approach, please use some other method of determining your sales on the downside.

ResMed: One of My Favorite Stocks (That I Don't Own)

Thanks for you comment and kind remarks. I hope that ResMed (RMD) works out well for you.

PetSmart: Buying When Others Are Selling

I traded out of PetSmart but would agree that the technicals still look good and I believe that the long-term is probably bright for this company. I shall be looking for some re-entry into a position in the future as my own trading-system allows.


On May 22 02:54 PM stink726 wrote:

> PETM seems to be one of the stronger retailers during this recession
> and I think it is a good investment, especially for the longer term.

Sysco: Where to Find Value and Growth Potential

I think stocks like SYY and ECL in a similar line of work will be strong players once the economy gets back on track which appears to be not at least until the first or second quarter of 2010. Meanwhile, I would agree that this is probably not too bad a place to park one's funds.


On Jun 18 06:05 PM Uncle BIM wrote:

> The consumer is hardly dead. As a psychologist and stock analyst,
> certain areas never get obsolete, such as food. Fewer people will
> eat at home once the recession ends, and companies that supply food
> to restaurants and food stations are a safe bet to say the least.
> I look for SYY to outperform the market in the coming months.

Sysco: Where to Find Value and Growth Potential

Thanks for commenting. The P&F still is a struggle now (9/24/09) but the stock is slowly moving higher from its recent low of $19.50 in March, 2009. Would like to see the stock trade north of $29 technically to feel like the chart is more promising.


On Jun 17 09:08 AM granger wrote:

> I have followed and owned SYY for a long time. I actually lightened
> for the first time ever in the high 24's.
>
> I love SYY and its fundamental strength. I believe it is one of the
> best run companies in the United States. I consider it a premiere
> holding.
>
> But, I am a staunch P&F follower.
>
> It scares me that one of my favorite companies is giving such a poor
> fundamental picture on its P&F chart.
>
> If what I consider best of breed is having trouble, what is the rest
> of the restaurant/ leisure industry looking like.
>
> If SYY s is going lower, then things must be very tough out there.]
>
>
> (SYY is still probably one of the best places to sit out the coming
> storm)

Sysco: Where to Find Value and Growth Potential

Thanks for your comment. Sysco is indeed struggling but it is the '250 pound gorilla' in the business and seems to have a good strategy for continued growth. What would serve this company best would be a reignition of growth in the economy with less unemployment and more demand at restaurants. Until then, we may well see SYY tread water in this price range.


On Jun 16 08:07 PM jepittman wrote:

> You can go to the company's website www.sysco.com/ and get
> the audio of a recent presentation to a Sanford-Bernstein investment
> conference. Bottom line is things are tough out there but have stopped
> going down. The economy should begin to recover in the second half
> of the year. SYY's fiscal year ends in June so perhaps next year
> brings positive earnings comparisons.
>
> One other thing: SYY has made an aquisition in Ireland, their first
> overseas. It won't move the needle but they made it on their terms
> and the Pallas Foods group is a leading foodservice providor. The
> acquired company should benefit from SYY's enormous food sourcing
> network.
>
> The stock has bumped its head recently around $24. Should it decisivly
> break this level it should move quickly to the $30 area. Get a position
> during this market pullback. Get it before June 30 and collect the
> next generous quarterly dividend, their 158th consecutive.

TJX Companies: Bright Spot in Awful Retail Environment

Ted,

Thanks for your comment. I do believe that TJX will be able to continue its growth as long as their is adequate 'supply' in close-outs. Unfortunately sometimes success breeds problems for if they develop too many outlets, and find that they haven't enough quality close-outs, the attractiveness of the shopping experience might suffer along with results. O.K. I shall now stop criticizing my ownd decision to buy shares :).


On Jul 29 10:33 AM Ted Hurlbut wrote:

> TJX is a well managed company that's well positioned for the long
> haul. Even though it's proven to be a counter-cyclical play in the
> current environment, TJX is likely to be able to retain their "new"
> customers as the economy recovers over the next several years, in
> contrast to Walmart, another clear counter-cyclical play who will
> likely struggle to hold on to their new customers..

Why I Swapped Haemonetics for Oshkosh

Patrick,

Congratulations on your "infallible" trading account. And your good luck with Oshkosh. Be careful with that margin account as sometimes we can get a bit over-confident and end up leveraging our losses. The small size of my purchases is an indication of the small size of this particular account, does not reflect either a wealth or paucity of wisdom behind the trades!

Thanks for taking the time to write!


On Aug 10 11:52 PM Patrick Bell wrote:

> Freedland, you hasve been trading since 2003 and you are only buying
> $2,400 worth of stock. I have been trading for 6 months only since
> I just got out of prison and I am already up to 450 shares of Oshkosh.
> Yes that is around $12,000. I just bought Oshkosh on Monday Aug,
> 10, 2009 at 26.67 a share. If this stock goes to $35 like S&P
> predicts I stand to make $3,800 on this single purchase. The reason
> I was able to move up so fast is because my trading strategy is infallable
> and I have a margin accound that allows me to work with more money.
>
>
> Patrick Bell
> West Bend, WI
> [e-mail]

Missing Colgate - Did I Rush the Trade?

Thanks for commenting. Seller's remorse is a serious emotional problem for me. Fortunately, I like Coca-Cola almost as much as I like Colgate. I don't think a few cents of tax on sugared drinks will make much of a dent in the majors like Pepsi and Coke. So many of their sodas are now "Zero" sodas with no calories anyhow.


On Jul 31 02:34 PM stink726 wrote:

> Nothing wrong in taking a profit. I do believe you should have held
> onto CL, but KO seems a pretty good swap. Unless Congress passes
> a "sugar tax/fat tax" which might cause KO to drop in the short term.
> A couple of times I have regretted selling a stock for a profit,
> then turned around and rebought it a few days later.

Church & Dwight: Optimism Abounds

How do you measure "expensive"? P/E? PEG? Price/Sales? Share Price? Insofar as the 'stupidity' of analysts, they are the best things we have to ascertain future earnings. And even more important isn't their precision or reliability, it is the point that many investors do consider what analysts have to say. Thus, like a technical analysis of a stock, which many would consider 'stupid', it becomes effective the more that people utilize their service.

Thanks for taking the time to write.

Why I Sold Oshkosh

Good point on whipsaw with O'Neil. However, I have found it quite effective to arbitrarily limit losses. I don't want a small loss to become a giant hole in my portfolio. And it hasn't been happening. But there may well be stocks that are so volatile that any limited loss like an 8% limit just simply isn't reasonable or effective.


On Aug 27 12:01 PM ktchnsnk wrote:

> your o'neill whipsaw is ready, mister freedland...
>
> gave up on that canslim stuff for just that reason.

Why I Sold Oshkosh

That was a terrific purchase....$6.75/share! OSK has had a wild ride the past couple of years. If they can sort out this $2 billion military contract situation (and they just got another $189 million), this stock should fly right back to its prior heights. Good-luck!


On Aug 21 03:59 PM User 474955 wrote:

> I purchased 185 shares of Osh Kosh at 6.75 a shrare. I more than
> tripled my money; however I am not going to see because I fell Osh
> Kosh is a stong company both in the Military and Civilian arenas.
> if you look at the history of Osh Kosh before the recession they
> were trading around $60.00 a share!

What I Like About McDonald's

The 'point & figure' chart shows possibly a bit of a different picture. there appears to be a narrowing in the price fluctuation with lower highs and higher lows....almost a 'wedge formation' if that is the correct analysis....to me it appears to be 'consolidating' in price and likely to make a move higher or lower more convincingly in the near future.

Again, that is my 'amateur' assessment.

Thanks for commenting and taking the time to write here.


On Sep 24 01:27 PM borisb wrote:

> MCD last peak was on June 3, 2009.. since then it has downtrended
> for 71 days to last weeks monday low point of $53.88. Yesterday gs
> raised estimates and reiterated $65 goal. The shares need a catalyst
> to reverse the downtrend.

What I Like About McDonald's

Excellent point. Probably all of the rest of the questions including royaltees, rents, leasing, etc. in some fashion are meaningless if they can't sell burgers. So the same-store-sales numbers, while easily manageable for an amateur like me, still are quite significant but they are not the whole story as you quite astutely point out. Thanks for taking the time to comment!


On Sep 24 09:15 AM John Gordon wrote:

> While analyst mentioned the MCD same store sales metric, additional
> metrics are needed for McDonald's to more accurately track it.<br/>
>
> Over 70% of its profit comes from franchise operations (royalties,
> franchisees opening new sales and surviving) and from its real estate
> operations (rents, leases and buying/selling property).
>
> So...while same store sales is important, additional drivers are
> present. Someday, perhaps, we can develop a new analytical framework
> for companies beyond just bumper sticker phrases.
>
> John A. Gordon
> Chain Restaurant Earning and Economics Experts
> pacificmanagementconsu...

Why I Sold Oshkosh

Patrick,

I am sorry you found my action 'idiotic'. I too am embarassed by my timing on Oshkosh. I am not interested in further discussions with you directly but would be happy to respond to your comments here or on my blog.

In general, it is wise to limit losses. This isn't my creation. This is standard trading and investing strategy most clearly explained by William O'Neil in "How to Make Money in Stocks". I very much respect Mr. O'Neil and believe that many of his CANSLIM approaches are worth considering.

I am very bullish on Oshkosh (OSK) over the long haul. My own sale was based on simply the technical drop in price which as you point out may well be a short-term event. I also would not be surprised to see OSK trading at $35 in the near future.

Thank you for taking the time to comment and offering me an opportunity to discuss this further with you. I certainly will consider this in the future, but meanwhile look forward to your comments here in the future and hopefully they will be of a little more positive and less derisive tone which doesn't really benefit anyone.