Robert Freedland

The Volatility Is Killing Me: Explaining My Sale of Expeditors International

weiwentg,

You make excellent points in your comment. I also appreciate some of the fine financial underpinnings to this company.

I have shot myself in the foot many-a-time as I write if you would like to check my blog. Overall, I have done o.k.

My goal is not to identify value and to hand on to it. Rather, I am trying to develop a more dynamic system that identifies quality investments, minimizes losses, captures gains, and shifts from equities into cash depending on the market environment.

Perhaps it is too big a bite to swallow. On the other hand, my actions are not based so much on the individual prospects of the holding, or my own evaluation of their worth. Rather, I am trying to develop a more dynamic approach based on the price movements of the stocks themselves.

Perhaps I should just buy shares in a good mutual fund and forget the whole thing?

Meanwhile, I shall struggle on, trying to minimize my losses, and batten the hatches in this awful stock market climate.

Thanks again for writing and I cannot argue with your comment.

Bob

Why I Sold National Oilwell Varco and Bought WMS Industries

There have been a lot of great comments about the value of National Oilwell Varco (NOV). I do not disagree with them.

Unfortunately, my decision to sell NOV was based on my own idiosyncratic strategy of limiting losses and moving to other investments when such losses develop. It was not an assessment that there was no value in Varco, nor was it a judgment on the relative worthiness of WMS vis a vis Varco. It was simply my own approach, that I am continually working on refining, of trying to avoid large losses in any investment, maintain a minimum of positions at all times, and replace companies that incur losses when at or below that minimum.

I also do not become emotionally involved with any holding, I do not try to think real hard about the story behind any stock beyond the fundamentals and my own limited ability to predict future trends, and sell stocks based on price movements rather than anything else.

I work hard at this entire process. I am trying to build an investment 'machine' of some type, that will assist me in knowing when to buy, how much to buy, when to sell, and when to 'sit on my hands'. In the same fashion, I am trying to develop a portfolio strategy that will automatically be shifting me into and out of equities depending on the market action as reflected in the action of my own holdings.

This is a tall order for an amateur like me. So the microscopic viewing of this trade may seem irrational or even difficult to comprehend. Like a part of a watch seen outside of the movement, the entire process may be hard to assess without understanding the rest of the story, like Paul Harvey would say.

I hope you all take the time to visit my blog, read some of my entries, and see if it makes sense. I am not sure that this process will work, but I have an ambitious goal to develop something of significance in my work that I do.

Why I Sold National Oilwell Varco and Bought WMS Industries

SevenSisters,

Thank you for your thoughts. Gambling is also cyclical but a stock like NOV travels with the price of oil. I do like NOV's numbers though, and with the great results from XOM today, the stock has popped higher.

My strategy involves minimizing losses, taking small short-term gains, and trying to shift into and out of equities depending on the performance of my underlying holdings. The entries on Seeking Alpha are informative but you might want to visit my blog over at Stock Picks Bob's Advice for more information.

Again, thank you for taking the time to write and think about what I have written.

Why I Sold National Oilwell Varco and Bought WMS Industries

retepog,

I like National Oilwell Varco (NOV). If you are willing to ride it down as well as up along with the price of oil, it may be a winner. I sold because it exceeded my own loss tolerance. What are your thoughts?

Getting Clobbered: Why I Changed My Investment Rules

There are many good strategies for buying stocks. I appreciate some of the above comments. NOV is also a favorite of mine that I have examined in the past and have kept it as an "investable" pick.

When I was given the opportunity to buy shares through my own idiosyncratic system, NOV was where I moved. Clearly, tight stops under stocks doesn't work in this sort of market. That is the point of my entry and my 'thinking out loud'.

However, I don't think there is anything wrong with buying stocks moving higher on strong momentum.

As you will note, NOV made a strong move higher today, getting me out of any sell-zone in any case and letting me hand on for another day at least. I also purchased some Imperial Oil (IMO) today, adding to my energy holdings in my account. (Along with NOV and GHM).

Riding Coach on the Roller Coaster

DaveJ,

I do not think I have written the stupidest post on Seeking Alpha. Perhaps that is your opinion, but I am not sure you have informed all of us about a better strategy.

It is a well-accepted investment strategy, advanced by William O'Neil and his CAN SLIM approach, that limiting one's losses is imperative in developing a profitable portfolio management strategy. It is the implementation of this strategy in the face of a bear market that is so difficult.

My own strategy is to try to drift between 5 and 20 positions in my own portfolio. I have sale points on the upside (partial sales) and sales on the downside (total sales). This strategy is designed to increase my own exposure to equities during favorable market environments and to limit my exposure to equities during corrections. At least that is my hope.

I do not claim to be more than an amateur investor. I blog with transparency of my trading activity and share with my readers my own observations.

Thank you for taking the time to comment on my entry here on Seeking Alpha. You might enjoy (?) reading my blog.

Global Payments Rated a Hold

Veni,

Thank you for your comment. Silly? Perhaps. I try to be entertaining as well as informative. In this particular entry drawn from my blog, I have tried to convey the why of my own particular sale, and how it affects my idiosyncratic portfolio management strategy.

I do think these thoughts are valuable but perhaps taken out of the context of the rest of my entries may sound silly. I apologize if I have offended your sensibilities.

Copart Rated a Sell

Great comments. I do not pick the titles of the entries. They are taken from my blog and Seeking Alpha thankfully assumes the role of editor. Please be aware of that.

As part of my blog, I have chosen when I comment on a stock to put in my five cents as to whether the stock is rated a "buy, sell or hold". When and if a more healthy environment in the financial world takes hold, Copart is a company I would hope would find a place in my own portfolio. As I tried to explain, I am having difficulty selling a stock from my holding and with a straight face tell readers they should either 'buy' or even 'hold' the same stock.

I am sure that you all, many of you who are more sophisticated in financial evaluations, will understand my own dilemma.

Global Payments Rated a Buy

From the Seeking Alpha transcript of the earnings report
(seekingalpha.com/artic...)
"Moving on to the balance sheet, our reported cash was $288 million at the end of August. Despite the current economic environment and the credit issues other companies have experienced, we believe that we are in a position of significant financial strength. We expect to easily meet the repayment obligations on our five-year term loan using internally-generated cash flow and we have an uncapped $350 million line of credit with a group of stable commercial banks."

Will this be enough? Will the banks truly have that credit available? Will other events affect the accessability to credit for this company?

These are great questions and I certainly don't have the answers. It appears that there are no places that are safe to avoid the current correction. Hopefully I shall be able to hold my GPN stock long enough to tell you that it was a good idea.

What are your thoughts?

Still Bullish on Graham Corporation

Excuse me that was "Opie" not user I meant to respond to.

Still Bullish on Graham Corporation

If you followed my other articles you will see that I sold my own GHM when it declined along with the plunging oil market. I view that as a 'fundamental' problem. Unfortunately, stocks that are associated with the oil industry are trading lower without any fundamental problems beyond the price of a barrel of oil. That is no small matter for stocks like this. In general, I stick with my own 8% loss limit after an initial purchase regardless of how much I like a stock. I have adopted this strategy from the CANSLIM approach.

Please read my September 3, 2008 post on Seeking Alpha....I sold my own shares at $87.02 shortly before the post was picked up. You can also read my own blog directly.

User268062---I don't manage anyone's money. I am an amateur investor and enjoy sharing some of my own observations with all of you.

My Investment Philosophy and Visa

I sold my shares at $78.99. Visa closed today at $65.18. Did all of you Visa holders hang on or sell? What is wrong with selling at an 8% loss? For one thing it keeps you from having a loss of another $13/share.

Where are my critics now?

Citigroup: Trading Transparency

Veni....

After yesterday's humongous move to the upside....after Thursday's....I feel about as comfortable with the market as Cramer. I heard him advising people to sell a bit.

The market is being driven now by the short-sellers and Hedge Funds who like sharks have been taking down financials one by one and now the Fed and the U.S. Government which is intervening as well.

I am having a hard time knowing what is 'fair value' any more.

I guess that is why I am back to my usual portfolio management strategy and not jumping in whole hog.

Why I Bought and Sold Graham Corporation

OK, so you bought in the mid $30's and sold in the mid $50's. And then a few months later GHM closes at $101.97 (8/1/08). O.K., pigs are led to slaughter, but was your method outstanding for identifying the right stock and then your sell system lead you to sell WAY too soon?

I have done the same thing as well. Bought ISRG in the mid 30's and then sold when it hit $100. (stock is just over $300 now.)

I suspect that selling a stock is the toughest thing to do. Especially when you have a profit.

Visa: Why I Sold All of My Shares

Guys,

You paying attention to V stock? I sold at $78.99. V closed today (8/1/08) at $71.73. I must have been an idiot huh?

Sorry.

I hope you all make tons of money. But selling at an 8% loss can prevent that from becoming an 18% loss. But what the hey, just look at the grimace and the strange angle of my face. That will tell you a lot.