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Robert Geoghan  

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  • Crude oil inventory builds more than expected [View news story]
    Gasoline inventories are still dropping. Unless I am mistaken, the weakening gas stocks will at some point persuade Oil inventories to drop. Obviously, the impending maintenance program will cause a hiccup in this idea.

    Please feel free to put me right.
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil spikes, dollar plummets - what gives? [View news story]
    There will be a hell of a lot of people breathing a sigh of relief if the dollar does weaken significantly. There's always a flip side, but as far as I can see it's good news for commodity dependant economies.
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto ripped by Western Australia premier [View news story]
    I suppose they could pass a law that states they can only produce so much coal, and sell it for a certain amount.
    Mar 19, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs CEO urges iron ore miners to rethink supply surge [View news story]
    RIO and BHP ARE doing their best TO put everyone else out of business. I'm sure they wouldn't mind if that meant the whole of Australia - they would just buy up the whole island in a fire sale.
    Mar 11, 2015. 03:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brent poised for biggest monthly gain since 2009 [View news story]
    The spread between Brent and WTI is now $12. Over production in the US doesn't seem to drag too much on the international market.
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan misses by $0.39, misses on revenue [View news story]
    These numbers may seem terrible, but they hide impairments that will only benefit the company in the future. Sales are down due to a much tighter mining industry, with agriculture, and construction not faring too much better.

    There is however a future for this stock, if you think we have seen the bottom for base metals. Copper is faring better today. But even if we havn't touched yet, the big players such as RIO etc. are expanding their operations.

    I expect the share price to recover from this low point.
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish inventory number doesn't hurt oil [View news story]
    The oil price surely does defy all sense and reason. So, the way to make money from this is to think like a conglomerate. What you gonna do if you're a government looking financial disaster in the face, or a huge company with a great big hole where profits used to be? you're not gonna sit back and do nothing that's for sure. Although it may be really tempting to look at all the facts, and bang a short on - I would think twice. It appears any major drops are bought into. I'm not saying it's not going to drop, but I would wait for dips, and buy them myself.

    Just as I write this WTI has broke a minor resistance level, so we maybe in for another bull run.
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto: Is The Worst Over? [View article]
    Copper is a major part of RIO's business. If the index is anything to go by, then an up trend in pricing is on it's way. Yesterday, a two month long down trend resistance was broken. The break above $2.65 was no doubt caused by traders looking forward to China's next stimulus action. If China provides more incentives to investors, then we could well have seen the bottom for the metal prices.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil pares losses after EIA supply data [View news story]
    Having read a few of the comments here, I notice a few traders are confused as to the erratic nature of the oil price at the moment. I think these traders need to take a step back, and look at the chart from a longer time frame. It's quite plain to see the trends when looking on the daily, or even the 4H. Just draw up the peaks.

    In my opinion, the volatile nature of oil at the moment has created a great trading environment. We are in a very rare moment in time, where it's fairly easy to make money. Short, or long - take your pick, you can't lose either way at these levels. Just hold on for a profit.

    One interesting point that no-one has touched on though, is the disparity between Brent, and WTI. I say disparity, as the untrained eye may assume they move together. I have noticed that WTI seems to be hesitant in moving higher, and reluctantly follows Brent on the big moves. The spread between them is getting wider, and I wonder whether we may see the ultra wide spreads again. There was Parity a few weeks ago, but the spread is definitely getting wider. This being the case, then short WTI, and long Brent would seem to be a good trade.
    Feb 20, 2015. 07:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesco: Long Short Term... (Short Long Term?) [View article]
    Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
    Aug 4, 2014. 03:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesco: Buy, Hold Or Sell? [View article]
    I sold my holding this morning, after buying last week. I shall buy again at around 280p.

    Warren Buffett sold a portion of his shares. Make your own mind up on his thinking.
    Jul 21, 2014. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum: Near-Term Catalysts [View article]
    A very well written article, but you fail to point out some of the major downside areas.

    Most of the over exuberant optimism has waned recently with GKP. The over optimistic oil in place estimates have been questioned. So much so, the CEO is under pressure to leave his post.

    Finance was recently in question, with the bond auction seeing a 13% yield.

    I see a valuation of just 50p being banded around for the shares at the moment.

    As with all exploration companies, initial interest can lead to an over optimistic share price. This generally becomes more realistic as time goes on, and if the optimism becomes forthcoming, then the price may return. On balance with GKP, I see the price drifting lower unless a solid and more stable company develops.
    May 14, 2014. 04:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: Titan International [View article]
    Maybe there was a lot of over zealous production during the mining boom, which will take time to draw down. Mining is not going to go away though, and will get back on track soon enough.

    Titan has many die hard fans - some of them large shareholders who believe Maurice when he tells of his plans for the future. There is a major tire recycling plant coming along, and also the more efficient farming tires to name just two initiatives in the pipeline.

    A board shake up, and other streamlining will make Titan a much better company in the future. The forward PE reflects the optimism.
    May 2, 2014. 04:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Q1 GDP growth disappoints, rising 7.7% Y/Y vs. 8% expected, and slowing from 7.9% in Q4. March industrial production misses expectations of 10% growth, rising just 8.9%. Retail sales, however, beats forecasts, rising 12.6% vs. 12.3% expected. Asia's taking a bit of a tumble, Shanghai -0.6%, and the Hang Seng -1.6%. The aussie (FXA) slides 0.6% to $1.0463. [View news story]
    3D printing has a long way to go before it can outdo a tight manufacturing process. Have you seen one working? talk about paint drying times!..
    Apr 15, 2013. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Q1 GDP growth disappoints, rising 7.7% Y/Y vs. 8% expected, and slowing from 7.9% in Q4. March industrial production misses expectations of 10% growth, rising just 8.9%. Retail sales, however, beats forecasts, rising 12.6% vs. 12.3% expected. Asia's taking a bit of a tumble, Shanghai -0.6%, and the Hang Seng -1.6%. The aussie (FXA) slides 0.6% to $1.0463. [View news story]
    I get that forward valuations take into account future growth forecasts. This drop of 0.2% - (or even the drop from the expected 8% growth of 0.3%) of the Y/Y figures should not cause such a massive sell off, unless the market was over heated anyway.

    It just shows you how nervous the market is. I still re-iterate my point that 'I don't see a problem'. China has a long way to go until recession. I am of the opinion that China knows how to manage it's economy. For one thing, the leaders do not have to worry about pleasing the electorate for votes. They do what's best for the country, and do not care what the people think. It's deeper than this though, it's Chinese culture to not want to lose face. They will do their utmost to prove that their ideas are better than the west's.

    Keeping an economy on a smooth plain is not easy, but I reckon they stand a better chance than most - for another 10 years at least anyway.

    Great opportunity to buy into sold down stocks today, they'll be back up by the end of the week.
    Apr 15, 2013. 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment