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Robert Keyfitz

 
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  • Learning To Live With Cheaper Oil In The Middle East [View article]
    It appears more like 55% to our allies in the Middle East whose currencies are pegged to the dollar.
    Jan 23, 2015. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning To Live With Cheaper Oil In The Middle East [View article]
    The marginal cost of fracking output at around $70 a barrel sets a price ceiling for oil for some time to come. No MENA oil producers can balance their budgets at that rate so some adjustment is unavoidable. The only question is whether it will be before or after they crash. My guess is the latter.
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    Chuck: It's a good story, but we've been here before. After the price crashed in 1986, it stayed low for 20 years. It turns out the best medium term price forecast for oil is today's price, whatever it is. To the extent you're taking a position on the global business cycle, is there a better way to do that? I'll wait and see what you have to say about the rest of the market.
    Jan 16, 2015. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Hold Foreign Stocks Now [View article]
    I hope you're right (and sooner or later you will be), because I've been holding on to my globally diversified portfolio since 2009 on just this logic. It was doing fine until the downturn, but now I have some catching up to do. One thing you might clarify is whether you're measuring in US$ or local currency terms. Don't forget the dollar is likely to strengthen as interest rates start to rise.
    Dec 27, 2014. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ghosts Of LTCM And 2008 Collide - Putin Is Crushed [View article]
    Catchy title, but where are the ghosts? Bad macro management isn't the same as ill advised financial speculation even if both involve arrogant hubris and end in tears.
    Dec 23, 2014. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch This Brazilian ETF Following The Petrobras Scandal [View article]
    EWZ is down 40% since 2011. PBR's problems are more a symptom than a cause of its ailment.
    Nov 26, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    Exactly. May all your calls be good calls.
    Nov 1, 2014. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    If you're satisfied, I'm satisfied.
    Oct 31, 2014. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    Glad to hear it. Don't forget opportunity cost is what counts.
    Oct 31, 2014. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    The trend in millennials not purchasing homes hasn't done much for you so far, but hang in there.
    Oct 31, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    ARG1: Buying the S&P 500 is hardly chasing high flyers. My initial comment (that you responded to) was that REZ had underperformed the broader market since inception. Now my very superficial due diligence finds that has continued to do so by a wide margin. For all I know, REZ has been a stellar performer in the face of headwinds from the housing bust. Maybe it's well positioned now for a momentum play, though it's hard to see much reason for optimism about the residential sector in the foreseeable future. If you've compared it to other REITs/ETFs/construction companies in the same area and think it's good for you, go for it.
    Oct 31, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    Regardless of what in-depth research might find, the annual return on REZ in the three years since the article has been 13.5% compared to 22.8% on SPY or 25.1% on QQQ (data from ETrade). There may be a spot for it in your portfolio, but it's not obviously a good investment for everyone.
    Oct 30, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active, Passive Or Neither  [View instapost]
    ABW: Good points. The author promises more details. Stay tuned..... How does ISO work? What period was it tested over? Does it perform as well in down markets as up markets? How much of the notional returns are eaten up by transactions costs? Would the strategy survive a big increase in investor demand? Etc.
    Sep 20, 2014. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active, Passive Or Neither  [View instapost]
    It makes sense that no investment scheme will deliver excess returns permanently. The finding that international equity was the only category where active had an edge over passive is revealing -- presumably this is a newer and less familiar asset class, and thus there's a return to superior knowledge. If your 9 day ISO algorithm (presumably some sort of momentum strategy) seems good now, it probably won't for long. So take your profits now before the inevitable convergence to a normal market return.
    Sep 19, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Glad I Have This West Coast Gem In My REIT Portfolio [View article]
    Brad: Just thought to look and discovered ROIC down to around $15. What would you consider a good entry point?
    Sep 16, 2014. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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