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Robert Keyfitz

 
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  • Watch This Brazilian ETF Following The Petrobras Scandal [View article]
    EWZ is down 40% since 2011. PBR's problems are more a symptom than a cause of its ailment.
    Nov 26, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    Exactly. May all your calls be good calls.
    Nov 1, 2014. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    If you're satisfied, I'm satisfied.
    Oct 31, 2014. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    Glad to hear it. Don't forget opportunity cost is what counts.
    Oct 31, 2014. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    The trend in millennials not purchasing homes hasn't done much for you so far, but hang in there.
    Oct 31, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    ARG1: Buying the S&P 500 is hardly chasing high flyers. My initial comment (that you responded to) was that REZ had underperformed the broader market since inception. Now my very superficial due diligence finds that has continued to do so by a wide margin. For all I know, REZ has been a stellar performer in the face of headwinds from the housing bust. Maybe it's well positioned now for a momentum play, though it's hard to see much reason for optimism about the residential sector in the foreseeable future. If you've compared it to other REITs/ETFs/construction companies in the same area and think it's good for you, go for it.
    Oct 31, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REZ: Crushing The Real Estate ETF Competition [View article]
    Regardless of what in-depth research might find, the annual return on REZ in the three years since the article has been 13.5% compared to 22.8% on SPY or 25.1% on QQQ (data from ETrade). There may be a spot for it in your portfolio, but it's not obviously a good investment for everyone.
    Oct 30, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active, Passive Or Neither  [View instapost]
    ABW: Good points. The author promises more details. Stay tuned..... How does ISO work? What period was it tested over? Does it perform as well in down markets as up markets? How much of the notional returns are eaten up by transactions costs? Would the strategy survive a big increase in investor demand? Etc.
    Sep 20, 2014. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active, Passive Or Neither  [View instapost]
    It makes sense that no investment scheme will deliver excess returns permanently. The finding that international equity was the only category where active had an edge over passive is revealing -- presumably this is a newer and less familiar asset class, and thus there's a return to superior knowledge. If your 9 day ISO algorithm (presumably some sort of momentum strategy) seems good now, it probably won't for long. So take your profits now before the inevitable convergence to a normal market return.
    Sep 19, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Glad I Have This West Coast Gem In My REIT Portfolio [View article]
    Brad: Just thought to look and discovered ROIC down to around $15. What would you consider a good entry point?
    Sep 16, 2014. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone fight continues as delay seen through midterm elections [View news story]
    Kill it.
    Aug 26, 2014. 07:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Show Me The Money: The Perils Of REIT ETF Investing [View article]
    Don: You make good points. The market may not be rational. However, two observations: (1) EMH is a useful benchmark with a powerful logic that doesn't need rationality. If you think you can beat the market, you should be able to explain (at least to yourself) how you’re able to escape EMH's gravitational pull. My point was that being able to distinguish between good and bad companies on the basis of public information isn’t a good explanation. (2) You may be right that HFT and technical trading move prices, but how does that tip the balance in favor of stock selection? Especially for ETFs where risk free arbitrage is quick and easy, there should never be a large and persistent deviation between price and NAV.
    Aug 4, 2014. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Show Me The Money: The Perils Of REIT ETF Investing [View article]
    Just to elaborate a bit:

    Your thesis is that some firms are better managed, occupy different market niches, have different balance sheets, dividend policies, etc. But,the next step in your logic -- therefore by stock picking or market timing you can earn a better than average return -- is not obvious. If one firm is better managed than another, well informed investors should value its future earnings more highly and therefore be willing to pay more for it. Or, if the market as a whole looks overvalued, we'd expect those same well informed investors to pull some money out driving down all prices, especially cyclical ones.

    The efficient markets hypothesis anticipates prices will adjust to reflect all the available information and therefore differences in quality will be reflected in relative prices, not relative returns. As a result, you can't make money by actively managing your own or others' portfolios unless you're better informed or smarter or faster than other investors. You're playing a game with them, not with the firms who supply assets to the market.

    The argument for ETFs is that nobody can have a persistent advantage over other market participants. You know more about REITs than I do and you come across as honest and trustworthy. You have a lot of credibility. If everyone else in the market was like me, you'd also be very rich because you could easily eat my REIT lunch money. But, dozens or hundreds of them are as sophisticated and knowledgeable as you and those people cause prices to adjust to reflect the best available current knowledge. I'm not convinced you're better able to pick winners than they are.

    That said, I have acted on some of your suggestions. So far, no regrets. But I'm not convinced I'll do better than average over the long run and I don't find the argument in this article very convincing.
    Aug 4, 2014. 10:44 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Announcing SA's First Outstanding Performance Award Winners [View article]
    David: Generalizing a bit, the crowd is what puts the magic in SA and makes this a fun place to hang around. From the comments in this thread, I can see you’re aware of that and have tried to weigh the interests of your loyal members into the balance, perhaps more than I was giving you credit for. Thanks for the kind words.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Announcing SA's First Outstanding Performance Award Winners [View article]
    David Jackson: The issue isn’t sincerity or good intentions. Any selection process that takes into account ex post results is inherently biased. AlphaBetaWorks is right: what matters is the risk adjusted return is on these investments. Did you estimate that? Besides, why look for a big positive number at all? The most valuable call on SA during this period might have been a warning about a possible negative return.

    You claim to have taken into account the overall quality of the authors’ work, but nevertheless these are the specific recommendations you singled out for the awards. What brought them to your attention was outsize returns due to the value of patents and takeover offers, and Florida weather. What could be more speculative? A bad storm or an adverse FDA ruling might have put these companies in Chapter 11. A less generous offer from Merck might have given IDIX investors a return of 59% rather than 597%.

    Whatever your outstanding performance award signifies, I’m not convinced that it’s outstanding performance.
    Jul 29, 2014. 02:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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