Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
One more comment on Keynes, as I study him, that I find interesting.
Keynes advocated spending and consumption to keep the economy in a quasi boom state. Even if that spending came from the government at times when consumers and businesses were not spending enough to reduce unemployment and interest rates. Keynes thought that saving led to idle money that did not serve economic interests.
Keynes himself, however, was a saver. He did not spend all of his money, but rather became quite wealthy later in his life through savings and investments.
It is interesting that Keynes did not follow his own philosophy. There may be several reasons for this but I am not sure anyone has explained them yet. I'll expand here if I find more about why he advocated spending publicly, but privately followed a different course.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Woops wrong scientist. I don't study those, my wife does. Good catch!
I study the business side of things.
If you want my reading list, refer to other comments in the thread. I can email you others, if you are so interested. I'll list a couple more here that are interesting, indeed.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Vox,
By the way, the book I listed for you proves that Keynes:
1) Never backed up his suppositions with critical analysis. He never proved his theories. They were just musings in effect.
2) He supposed the government could supply liquidity without any detrimental effects. Obviously, that is wrong. Too much government (free) money at low interest rates creates inflation and asset bubbles. For another great anlaysis of this, check out the following book by former IMF advisor and current Asian market analyst Richard Duncan.
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures , Revised and Updated
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Tom,
CDS and MBS would never have been as big as they were had we not had the bubble. The bubble resulted from too much currency. Basic Econ stuff here.
I am explaining cause and effect with you, Tom, which you don't address. The regulation bandaids won't resolve the problem. The cause is the unstable monetary system to which regulation can only respond after much of the damage has been done. Government has never been able to effectively regulate markets, and the current world-wide issues just prove this.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Vox Rationalis
I disagree. The current suffering is the result of previous failed ideas. We are just delaying the inevitable. If we don't take the medicine now, it will just hurt more later. Especially at the sum we are borrowing.
Hunter Lewis had a good point about this in his book, "Where Keynes Went Wrong, And Why World Governments Keep Creating Inflation, Bubbles, and Busts" www.amazon.com/Where-K...
So don't take my word for it, take an economist with much more experience in the matter than you or I.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Keynes also said that the government could print money anytime they wanted to stimulate the economy, and never seemed to realize there were consequences for this. He seemed to think paper currency was real currency and could be created out of nothing with little consequences. Oh if it were only true!
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Bingo. Hit the nail on the had.
Demand siders think there will never be a price to pay, not realizing we are paying for the relentless debt financing and money printing that has already occured in the past. There is always a reaction to fiscal policy. Think Einstein's 'equal and opposite reaction' theory. Except when you use leverage, which makes the resulting penalty worse.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Tom,
Prove to me that any of the stimulus went to the middle class, which it hasn't. It went to bailouts of the rich. Construction projects are just gettings started, and they are a temporary measure at best. They will not address long term growth. They are a patch to help the middle class that will be paid for by the middle class later on in bond issues and money printing (price inflation) with government ineficiencies priced in.
Government spending leads to deficits and inflation, both of which are paid for by the middle class. How did the spending help the middle class at all either short or long term? Hint: it didn't!
Second, prove to me that a large bank failure would break our economy. Remember, bank failures already occured and they didn't break the economy. They are a symptom of the asset bubble problems in the economy, not a cause of anything. Lost jobs? Sure. But we have had those anyway and adding a few thousand from Goldman wasn't growing to drive unemployment much farther than it has already gone.
Government spending to this point has done nothing to fix our economic issues. NOTHING.
If the government had stayed out of the mess and let the banks fail as they should, then the middle class wouldn't have had to pay for it in future taxes and inflation as they will now.
Your points about war spending and controlling entitlement programs I agree with. But the rest of your response is nonsense.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
The Fed doesn't need to regulate anything. They are a failure and a large reason why we have bubbles and busts. Loose money doesn't work economically, but it sure as hell makes bankers rich. Sheep are being led to slaughter and the situation gets worse and worse.
I am beginning to believe the financial elite and congress (44% of those are uppper 1 percenters also) are going to drive the economy straight to hell one way or the other.
At that point people will revolt, which is their only true recourse. Right now people complain, congress pays lip service and grandstands, then proceeds to business as usual. The lower and middle class are not being representated. Real actionable reform is not taking place. So unless something changes drastically, this isn't getting better anytime soon.
Government Growth Steals From Ordinary Americans but There Is a Bigger Thief [View article]
Everything is political, as I have stated to you before.
Data analysis finds the effects. Look to people for the causes. Politics is the gameplay between the various people factions.
No one political or economic viewpoint is commensurate in itself. They are all valid constructs -- it is the proportion of how much of each 'wins out' that determines the end results.
Hence, John, while you stated you have a bias that is not supported in all outcomes (analytics).
I think we are currently seeing one construct win out more than the others, but others are in play as well. Good guys and bad guys. Cowboys and Indians.
Read the books I pointed you towards, and you will add an understanding of the players and the games as much as you understand the effects in your excellent articles.
Government Growth Steals From Ordinary Americans but There Is a Bigger Thief [View article]
"The fact that median incomes keep having an increasing gap to the average is not primarily the fault of society. It is more impacted by the fact that too many have not prepared themselves to be competitive in the modern economy. Too many are lacking in education, both initially and in continuing education, to remain marketable in the modern world. That is reflected in the unemployment and underemployment numbers which fall primarily on household incomes under the median."
Ermm ...
I believe there is room for every level in our economy, and in fact in the case of manufacturing and balance of payments, it is essential.
Not everyone need be well educated in the college sense (but trades yes). That is part of what got us into this mess - everyone wants to be white collar and nobody wants to do the manufacturing work. Other countries picking up our leftovers are now more financially sound than we are. India and China will eventually rise from the ashes of the Japanese - European - US meltdown. I'll throw Germany in there as well as long as the Euro crash doesn't take them out.
I'll also make the point that most rich people aren't well educated, not in the MBA - PhD sense anyway. Bill Gates, etc .. Your point is valid when it comes to the bankers of the world who go to Harvard, Princeton, and other eastern school factories. But education is far from a requirement for wealth. The wealthy hire the educated to do their daily work, basically are clever enough to see the trends and big opportunities.
Government Growth Steals From Ordinary Americans but There Is a Bigger Thief [View article]
There is a book called 'Nudge' in which some University of Chicago researchers state the best way to get the people on your side is piece by piece. Socialism in small chunks so they don't figure out what is going on. And the government knows what is best for you. These people are advisors of Obama, and he is stupid enough to listen to them. We hide behind democratic veil but in reality our government is a socialist institution that will eventually win. That is unless they crash the economy bad enough we have revolution in the streets and the game resets for another match.
This has all been done before. It will happen again.
Oh and thankfully I live and invest in Texas real estate, so the fall in property prices won't be that bad for us. Perhaps another 3-6% ? I feel badly for those on the coasts, however.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Keynes advocated spending and consumption to keep the economy in a quasi boom state. Even if that spending came from the government at times when consumers and businesses were not spending enough to reduce unemployment and interest rates. Keynes thought that saving led to idle money that did not serve economic interests.
Keynes himself, however, was a saver. He did not spend all of his money, but rather became quite wealthy later in his life through savings and investments.
It is interesting that Keynes did not follow his own philosophy. There may be several reasons for this but I am not sure anyone has explained them yet. I'll expand here if I find more about why he advocated spending publicly, but privately followed a different course.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
After a while, you run out of people to insult, and they eventually stop listening to you.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
I study the business side of things.
If you want my reading list, refer to other comments in the thread. I can email you others, if you are so interested. I'll list a couple more here that are interesting, indeed.
Dollar Meltdown, Charles Goyette
www.amazon.com/Dollar-...
Creature From Jekyll Island: Second Look at the Federal Reserve, G Edward Griffin
www.amazon.com/Creatur...
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Check my comments to you farther up for two book recommendations. I have more, if you need the reading.
In a few years, it will all come clear to you.
Cheers,
Robert
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
By the way, the book I listed for you proves that Keynes:
1) Never backed up his suppositions with critical analysis. He never proved his theories. They were just musings in effect.
2) He supposed the government could supply liquidity without any detrimental effects. Obviously, that is wrong. Too much government (free) money at low interest rates creates inflation and asset bubbles. For another great anlaysis of this, check out the following book by former IMF advisor and current Asian market analyst Richard Duncan.
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures , Revised and Updated
www.amazon.com/Dollar-...
I have an extra copy that I can provide you free of charge. Send me your PO BOX and it's on the way.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
CDS and MBS would never have been as big as they were had we not had the bubble. The bubble resulted from too much currency. Basic Econ stuff here.
I am explaining cause and effect with you, Tom, which you don't address. The regulation bandaids won't resolve the problem. The cause is the unstable monetary system to which regulation can only respond after much of the damage has been done. Government has never been able to effectively regulate markets, and the current world-wide issues just prove this.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
I disagree. The current suffering is the result of previous failed ideas. We are just delaying the inevitable. If we don't take the medicine now, it will just hurt more later. Especially at the sum we are borrowing.
Hunter Lewis had a good point about this in his book, "Where Keynes Went Wrong, And Why World Governments Keep Creating Inflation, Bubbles, and Busts"
www.amazon.com/Where-K...
So don't take my word for it, take an economist with much more experience in the matter than you or I.
:-P
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Demand siders think there will never be a price to pay, not realizing we are paying for the relentless debt financing and money printing that has already occured in the past. There is always a reaction to fiscal policy. Think Einstein's 'equal and opposite reaction' theory. Except when you use leverage, which makes the resulting penalty worse.
Markets Hitting Humpty's Great Wall [View article]
Prove to me that any of the stimulus went to the middle class, which it hasn't. It went to bailouts of the rich. Construction projects are just gettings started, and they are a temporary measure at best. They will not address long term growth. They are a patch to help the middle class that will be paid for by the middle class later on in bond issues and money printing (price inflation) with government ineficiencies priced in.
Government spending leads to deficits and inflation, both of which are paid for by the middle class. How did the spending help the middle class at all either short or long term? Hint: it didn't!
Second, prove to me that a large bank failure would break our economy. Remember, bank failures already occured and they didn't break the economy. They are a symptom of the asset bubble problems in the economy, not a cause of anything. Lost jobs? Sure. But we have had those anyway and adding a few thousand from Goldman wasn't growing to drive unemployment much farther than it has already gone.
Government spending to this point has done nothing to fix our economic issues. NOTHING.
If the government had stayed out of the mess and let the banks fail as they should, then the middle class wouldn't have had to pay for it in future taxes and inflation as they will now.
Your points about war spending and controlling entitlement programs I agree with. But the rest of your response is nonsense.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
I am beginning to believe the financial elite and congress (44% of those are uppper 1 percenters also) are going to drive the economy straight to hell one way or the other.
At that point people will revolt, which is their only true recourse. Right now people complain, congress pays lip service and grandstands, then proceeds to business as usual. The lower and middle class are not being representated. Real actionable reform is not taking place. So unless something changes drastically, this isn't getting better anytime soon.
Government Growth Steals From Ordinary Americans but There Is a Bigger Thief [View article]
Data analysis finds the effects. Look to people for the causes. Politics is the gameplay between the various people factions.
No one political or economic viewpoint is commensurate in itself. They are all valid constructs -- it is the proportion of how much of each 'wins out' that determines the end results.
Hence, John, while you stated you have a bias that is not supported in all outcomes (analytics).
I think we are currently seeing one construct win out more than the others, but others are in play as well. Good guys and bad guys. Cowboys and Indians.
Read the books I pointed you towards, and you will add an understanding of the players and the games as much as you understand the effects in your excellent articles.
Government Growth Steals From Ordinary Americans but There Is a Bigger Thief [View article]
Ermm ...
I believe there is room for every level in our economy, and in fact in the case of manufacturing and balance of payments, it is essential.
Not everyone need be well educated in the college sense (but trades yes). That is part of what got us into this mess - everyone wants to be white collar and nobody wants to do the manufacturing work. Other countries picking up our leftovers are now more financially sound than we are. India and China will eventually rise from the ashes of the Japanese - European - US meltdown. I'll throw Germany in there as well as long as the Euro crash doesn't take them out.
I'll also make the point that most rich people aren't well educated, not in the MBA - PhD sense anyway. Bill Gates, etc .. Your point is valid when it comes to the bankers of the world who go to Harvard, Princeton, and other eastern school factories. But education is far from a requirement for wealth. The wealthy hire the educated to do their daily work, basically are clever enough to see the trends and big opportunities.
Government Growth Steals From Ordinary Americans but There Is a Bigger Thief [View article]
This has all been done before. It will happen again.
Mortgage Crunch Coming [View article]