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Robert Lawton

 
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  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    Allow me to clear up your confusion;
    I did NOT, as you allege, say: "...cash is about 100 million."
    To be clear;
    Mkt cap is roughly $550 million.
    Roughly HALF of that (around $225 million) is cash, including the recent secondary offering.
    Their burn rate is roughly 50 million/yr.
    Therefore, they have 4 years of cash at the current burn rate.
    I expect results well within that time frame.
    Jan 29 06:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    Another clarification;
    I believe the potential upside move on the heels of positive results is 5 to 10 points INITIALLY & goes higher from there.
    Bottom line;
    If movement is restored?
    I think it's eventually a 50 dollar stock, if it makes it that long without a hostile bid.
    Jan 29 06:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buy: Muddled Message on Conference Call, But Path to Upside Is Clear [View article]
    Really thorough, terrific article.
    Keep up the good work.
    Mar 25 08:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    Simple:
    He gets the ratings.
    I can argue with his track record, motivations, thoroughness, philosophy, etc.
    I can't argue with his ratings.
    He puts "asses in seats" and that's all CNBC cares about....rightfully so.
    Jan 31 06:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    "...[Geron} is SECOND to ACT in hESC-derived cellular therapeutic endeavors."

    Not correct.
    Geron received the FDA clearance before ACTC

    Also:
    "UW scientist James Thomson pioneered stem-cell research in 1998 when he discovered stem cells could be isolated and grown in cell cultures. Geron, a biopharmaceutical company, financed much of his work. "
    badgerherald.com/news/...

    Again, the IP component in this field is, in my view, critically important.
    Geron was there first, is better funded, better IP, etc.

    I'm getting alot of inquiries re; ACTC
    My opinion:
    CEO seems gracious & there is certainly room for all comers in the field BUT;
    It's a bulletin board stock
    more debt than cash
    over a billion share float
    etc.
    Good luck to all and remember;
    It's a win/win if any/all of these companies succeed.
    Forget about US for a moment....consider the hope it will provide to the suffering.
    Jan 29 06:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    Skepticism is alive and well at my fund.
    I shorted much of the Nasdaq in 1999 (& was initially ridiculed for doing so).
    More recently, I shorted Crocs, RIMM and others when they were very near their highs because I considered them overvalued.
    In a situation like Geron's...I make a decision (after exhaustive due dilligence) based on what I perceive to be calculated risks.
    I dont consider Geron a "value" stock.
    It's highly speculative.
    P.S. I perused a few of your "articles"...
    I understand your skepticism re; various equity valuations.
    Problem is?
    The market doesn't agree with you.
    Since you have been a vocal, persistent critic of AMZN, the share price has doubled.
    That doesn't make your valuation models or opinions "wrong" but it does render them irrelevant.
    At the end of the day, share price is the barometer by which we are judged.
    Let's see who is "right" with Geron.
    Feb 1 03:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    I believe if the OPC1 trial shows any positive results without any significant safety issues, the street will take the stock up there.
    Again, I think the knee jerk reaction is around a double...beyond that, it's such a "sexy" story (if it works) and there are so many applications, such a hot button issue...etc.
    I think therefore the momentum players will take it up that high.
    Ex;
    DNDN (mkt cap around 5 billion, P/S multiple above 200), HGSI..etc.
    Each were low single digit stocks with no shortage of well reasoned skeptics.
    I think the actual revs/earnings will lag the share price significantly, at least initially, if Geron shows positive results.
    To me?
    It's such a great Risk/Reward play based on the science (worldwide press coverage, hope for millions & potential revenues).
    Jan 31 06:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    Thanks.
    Jim Cramer is, in my view, an unbalanced, bi-polar, cartoon character.
    Truly a contrarian indicator.
    Good luck.
    RL
    Jan 31 12:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron: Still Standing [View article]
    Hey all,
    First you should know, Daniel Shvartsman from SA did most of the heavy lifting for this article. That said, the views are mine.
    While several of you may take issue with the 3.50 PT, keep in mind it represents a roughly 135% premium to today's price.
    I'd love to be underestimating but, with the shares at a buck and half, I suspect many would be relieved at a 3.50 takeover anytime soon.
    Thanks,
    RL
    Feb 8 03:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron: Mea Culpa [View article]
    I'll try to post a new article...working title:
    "Geron's last chance"
    Thanks
    Oct 15 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    Is there a way to automatically "ignore all comments" from someone on this site?
    P.S. Well said, Leviek.
    Sep 1 12:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    I think it's a signal to Wall Street that the BOD isn't happy with the share price (either).
    I think it's a net positive.
    Also;
    Greenwood is a Harvard MBA.
    Okarma was clearly (I believe) forced out.
    Seems rather abrupt but the stock reacted well.
    More will be revealed & I suspect Greenwood is a temp.
    He seems like more of a backseat guy than the public face of a public co.
    Nice to see Barkas apparently taking a more active role (he's a former Kleiner, Perkins guy...very shrewd & well connected).
    I think it's an overall step forward, rather than laterally or backwards.
    Feb 10 03:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    LVI,
    "I'd sooner bet on Amazon than Geron. But really both should be left alone."
    I couldn't disagree with you more.
    For YOU, a self described "value investor", perhaps that is the best approach although that doesn't appear to have prevented you from providing your opinions on, or in the case of AMZN, shorting them.
    For my limited partners?
    "Leaving alone" stocks like AMZN & GERN is not what I get paid for.
    If you are indeed a value investor...why do you bother weighing in on highly speculative equities?
    Do you think there may be some confusion among the investor base of AMZN or GERN as to whether or not these are "value" plays?
    I think you're methodology & focus have merit.
    I just think it's misplaced here.
    Feb 1 01:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Biopharma Veteran Facing a Landmark Stem Cell Trial [View article]
    ACTC has, according to both Edgar & Thomson Reuters,
    2 million in cash & 5 million in debt.
    Also;
    You wrote:
    "...[Geron} is SECOND to ACT in hESC-derived cellular therapeutic endeavors."
    That's simply wrong.
    Good luck with your ACTC
    Jan 29 09:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron: Still Standing [View article]
    http://bit.ly/YAFoNE
    Mar 15 09:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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254 Comments
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