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Robert McDonald

 
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  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    As usual, Mr. Blair supports his theses using market share numbers and short term trends. Despite multiple efforts to explain to him with appropriate references that total sales, margin and net earnings are the reasons companies are in business and the biggest reason long term investors buy their stock, Mr Blair continues to ignore these facts. I reference my many referenced responses to Mr. Blair's earlier SA articles on this topic.

    I would add that longer term growth of sales and earnings are very important. A credible analysis includes longer term y-y trends vs. over focus on a few y-y numbers. This provides a much more accurate picture of business realities.

    In the mobile device market place, there several reasons why market share and short term trends can provide an exceptionally misleading understanding of the business picture. For one, it is an understatement to say that over half the smart phones and tablets have been and are continuing to be sold with little to no profit, or even at a loss. Many of these devices have limited functionality or are designed for novice users and even children. Adding to the analytical challenge is the fact that short term and even y-y trends present additional interpretation problems. This is for the reason that the mobile device market is highly seasonal and new product driven. Not taking these business realities and fluctuations into account adds significant misunderstandings to conclusions based on market share and limited trend numbers. The accurate business reality is only revealed with a more complete analysis.

    Very few if any professional or many sophisticated amateur stock analysts would be satisfied with Mr. Blair's analytic approach.

    One more time I will make the easily proven point, that as compared with other Fortune 500 companies, Apple's overall financial numbers trends are outstandingly good, numbers that most Fortune 500 companies would be very glad to have. Just go to Yahoo Finance, Google finance, Marketwatch financial summaries or a recent Barron's cover story:

    http://bit.ly/1il68dA

    As long as Mr. Blair continues ignoring these fundamental and important business facts, many of his theses, related statements and most if not all of his conclusions remain questionable in the light of the larger picture. Yes the downside argument might be possible but the probabilities of what is likely to happen do not support his dire predictions. It is sad to see America's largest and most successful business enterprise attacked in this manner. I cannot help but wonder why these articles on Apple have continued as they have.

    Note to the author: Please spell my name correctly in the future. Thank you.
    Apr 4 12:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    As usual, Mr. Blair supports his theses using market share numbers and short term trends. Despite multiple efforts to explain to him with appropriate references that total sales, margin and net earnings are the reasons companies are in business and the biggest reason long term investors buy their stock, Mr Blair continues to ignore these facts. I reference my many referenced responses to Mr. Blair's earlier SA articles on this topic.

    I would add that longer term growth of sales and earnings are very important. A credible analysis includes longer term y-y trends vs. over focus on a few y-y numbers. This provides a much more accurate picture of business realities.

    In the mobile device market place, there several reasons why market share and short term trends can provide an exceptionally misleading understanding of the business picture. For one, it is an understatement to say that over half the smart phones and tablets have been and are continuing to be sold with little to no profit, or even at a loss. Many of these devices have limited functionality or are designed for novice users and even children. Adding to the analytical challenge is the fact that short term and even y-y trends present additional interpretation problems. This is for the reason that the mobile device market is highly seasonal and new product driven. Not taking these business realities and fluctuations into account adds significant misunderstandings to conclusions based on market share and limited trend numbers. The accurate business reality is only revealed with a more complete analysis.

    Very few if any professional or many sophisticated amateur stock analysts would be satisfied with Mr. Blair's analytic approach.

    One more time I will make the easily proven point, that as compared with other Fortune 500 companies, Apple's overall financial numbers trends are outstandingly good, numbers that most Fortune 500 companies would be very glad to have. Just go to Yahoo Finance, Google finance, Marketwatch financial summaries or a recent Barron's cover story:

    http://bit.ly/1il68dA

    As long as Mr. Blair continues ignoring these fundamental and important business facts, many of his theses, related statements and most if not all of his conclusions remain questionable in the light of the larger picture. Yes the downside argument might be possible but the probabilities of what is likely to happen do not support his dire predictions. It is sad to see America's largest and most successful business enterprise attacked in this manner. I cannot help but wonder why these articles on Apple have continued as they have.

    Note to the author: Please spell my name correctly in the future. Thank you.
    Apr 4 11:59 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Net Income Growth Is The Name Of The Game [View article]
    With all due respect Robert i would refer you to the following comment by docnaka’s today 2/23/2014:

    http://bit.ly/1nYmyu0

    This comment was made in response to Michael Blairs SA article of Feb. 9, 2014: "2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple":

    ==> Apple's Operating Profits (for Q1 2014) were higher but ""other income" was higher by $200 million a year ago. Operating profits are a better indicator. You also say mention that although the iPhone had the highest profit share in the industry, "declining profit is not all that satisfying." However, I would argue that Iphone profits were at an all-time high with 51 million units sold at an ASP of $637 therefore not declining. If you are referring to the quarter, the blame should be placed on poor ipod sales. Not to mention, $1.3 billion NET deferred revenue increase AND $1.5 billion tax provision that will never be recognized. Add these together and operating profits come in nearly $3 billion higher. Pretty amazing quarter. Plus, $12 billion added to cash eq. and $7.2 billion given back to investors. There has NEVER been a better quarter if you consider these perks."

    Wikopedia recognizes this past quarter at Apple's best ever:

    http://bit.ly/1e3caRL
    Feb 23 10:26 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple [View article]
    Prominent Hedge Funds Flocked to Apple in Fourth Quarter
    http://bit.ly/M7VEnd
    Feb 17 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple [View article]
    "fact based projections where the arithmetic is inescapable" < Mr. Blair, Even if the logic you used to get to the conclusions you reach were not flawed, as it often is, the fact that you start with a cherry picked subset of the facts to get to a final conclusion undermines your conclusions at the very outset. Incomplete data relevant to the issue at hand times flawed logic equal at best inaccurate output and at worst manipulative behavior. I will leave it at that for right now.

    Have a nice day in your own backyard but I would be nice if you usee better judgement in the public forum.
    Feb 16 01:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple [View article]
    I think it is obvious Mr. Blair practices selective reading and/or comprehension in order to support the predetermined conclusions presented in his sensationalist stories.
    Feb 15 01:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: This Is Ridiculous [View article]
    Hello Ashraf,

    Thanks for the very useful write up. This is yet another value added way, no pun intended, of looking at how undervalued Apple is. Glad you are looking at things in more than one way.

    Bob
    Feb 13 11:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple [View article]
    ======My Response to This Article======
    Mr. Blair do your homework!
    Apple is not a Blackberry, a Nokia, or an HTC. Apple owns the high end of the smartphone market where the majority of the profits are. Have you heard about Apple's growing cash hoard, dividends and stock buybacks?
    Samsung their number one competitor in the high end market, is slipping.
    Apple is a multiproduct company with a powerful ecosystem that includes iTunes with a half billion users who have their charge cards in place, Entertainment (more movies than Netflix), by far the most useful and largest number of Aps of any competitor, free Office equivalent software (at least for home and many business uses), iAds, iBeacons, iRadio, and possibly soon iWatch, iHealth, iWallet and iTV.
    Apple owns the majority of mobile web activity including traffic and commerce. That is a much more important measure of success than market share. Overall market share is a meaningless indicator when the lower half of the market produces devices that have limited functionality and is a money losing business.
    The Galaxy S4, Apple’s number one competitor, was a bust and the prospects of the S5 are not much better. The Galaxy Gear, Samsung’s effort to undermine Apple’s iWatch introduction was a bust. Samsung has lost the ability to copy Apple’s latest innovations blatantly, a side benefit of all the lawsuits, and that is now dragging future prospects down.
    Mr. Blair, If I were you, given your analytical methodologies, I would keep my shorts where they protect my vitals and not in the market.
    Feb 10 11:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Getting Past The Dip [View article]
    When a management sinks to the level of being intimidated by Wall Street's advice, including that of an iChan, a Mitt Romney or an Einhorn, it is time to sell (strategically of course)..
    Jan 28 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Getting Past The Dip [View article]
    Blackrock is already the largest single holder of Apple shares. They are very well managed and know what they are doing. At least if anybody does.
    Jan 28 03:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Getting Past The Dip [View article]
    Apple now holds 5 of 22 slots: Largest Corporate Quarterly Earnings of All Time including this quarter: http://stks.co/c09wg This is is indisputable proof that Apple is a very successful company. The interesting thing this is for the quarter just announced, the year ago Dec qtr, and the March quarter for the last two years.
    Jan 28 03:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Getting Past The Dip [View article]
    If Bezos or Musk had delivered the earnings call the stock would have gone up. Neither Cook or Oppenheimer have a spark of marketing sense when comes to talking up Apple. We have "great products" in the pipeline does not cut it. Therefore shareholders suffer time and time again.

    I remain long Apple and intend to stay that way, but lots of patience, thick skin and solvency are required.

    Apple is indeed running on all 8 cylinders including innovation. The fundamental disconnect is that Apple is a very complicated company with many successful moving pieces which makes it very hard for the average analyst and investor to understand. They are simply not a wireless phone manufacture with "decreasing" market share.

    Analyst and pundit misuse of market share data is also big contributor to the depressed price as most people cannot get past a simple market share number as a meaningful indicator. It is not market share "stupid," it is revenues, earnings what part of the market you are in. The low cost smartphone world is a money losing business and Apple is right to stay out of it. It is a no-win business to be in.
    Jan 28 02:05 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's China Mobile Launch Was A Flop [View article]
    Mr. Blair, You clearly do not understand the power of what you can do on an iDevice system with or without the latest processor. You might want to give it a try. You might find you would want to leave your Surface Pro at home more often. I need to add two things about processor power. One, once you get beyond the basic user needs including suitable speeds, more power is over kill and wastes battery life. Two, Intel's unending efforts to build more powerful processors for PC's was in large part driven by Microsofts never ending increases to its bloatware, bloatware that is loaded with unnecessary complexity and features user never use, and too many of which are unreliable. I know. I was in charge of a large group at Intel that had to use all that Wintel Stuff for 20 years, including running our own software for workflow control and other needs. Apple stuff is a breath of fresh air compared to that.
    Jan 24 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's China Mobile Launch Was A Flop [View article]
    My comment directly above is directed at Mr Blair's response to @brent lane
    Jan 24 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's China Mobile Launch Was A Flop [View article]
    Maybe you have an Android device and you call Google for support or tried to use the on-line support. Or you called the company that sold you the phone. It is to see easy why you would come to the conclusion "to forget it" and that may be why you came to the conclusion that you didn't need it. It was of no use and you were left to solve the problem on your own.

    Alternatively, you can add your concern to the long list of others who try to use Google's support site and pray for response. Few get it and many serious reported problems go unresolved, or even go unresponded to for years. I know personnaly as my first smartphone, if you could call it that, was a Motorola Droid. I also learned to call it my "Motorola Dud" as time went on, especially after I found out the only thing Verizon could do was to refer me to the Google web site for device specific support.

    If you were really knowledgeable about Apple devices you would know that you can call Apple support and expect competent help from a real human who will be on the line in a few minutes. In the one emergency case that motivated me to try on-line call in I was told how to resolve my problem immediately for free. Due disclosure, if you buy Apple Care at the time you buy it, you get basically unlimited support by method of your choice for I believe 2 years for $100. That also includes an extended warranty on the device itself,

    If you have an Apple device you will probably use if to perform very sophisticated things you would never try on an Android device because they are either not available or may be too hard, too unreliable and because you know you can never get any help if there are problems

    In the powerful world of Apple devices and Apple software you can end up trying to do some amazing and very useful things you never thought or even dreamed to be possible. This can indeed lead to some questions and need for professional help. I my own case this has occurred as a result of many the various options that were possible and the fact I like to push the edge of the envelope.

    Better yet if you live within easy driving distance of an Apple store can use your iDevice Apple store Ap to get a free Genius Bar appointment, often the same day, for any help you might need. I have also just waled into the store and told the greeter at the door of my problem I am talking with an expert who can and does help me.

    Given the power of iDevice technology and software I recommend all users also take in-store classes to learn things you never dreamed possible and to shorten your learning time overall.

    I do understand that if you ask your Android phone supplier for this kind of help, well I recommend you keep a sand box close by so you live out the response you get. (Go pound sand or the equivalent.)

    So Mr. Blair, I speculate that you revealed yet again the level at which you have experienced wireless device capabilities and your knowledge of better worlds that you apparently have not lived in.
    Jan 24 05:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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