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Robert McDonald

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  • Apple: Is It HP All Over Again? [View article]
    Apple is not a Nokia or a Blackberry or anything like an HP. See my lastest Seeking Alpha Instablog posted yesterday:

    Is The Market Right? Is Apple Going Down In Flames?
    http://bit.ly/15zRrQX
    Apr 22 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: The New Intel? [View article]
    I was not able to quickly find the actual breakouts by dollar however quoting from a Bloomberg article: "The majority of Qualcomm’s revenue comes from baseband chips, which connect phones to cellular networks, sold to wireless device makers such as Samsung Electronics Co., Apple Inc. and HTC Corp. The bulk of the company’s profit comes from the licensing of so-called code division multiple access technology, a radio-communications standard used in other chips, handsets and phone systems" http://bloom.bg/Z4ihwV

    Of course they do not fabricate the chips they design. The majority if not all of this is done by TSMC and Samsung.
    Apr 17 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Such A Lousy Business? Mr. Market Wrongfully Thinks So [View article]
    The market is "right" when it comes time to buy or sell shares. Any other time it is an indicator of all kinds of things. Valuations on a company like Apple used to be tied to business and financial fundamentals but that has all changed. Apple pricing is now a function of the news or rumor of the day. Since Apple has not announced a new product or cash dividend or how it is doing in the market place for a long time, the valuation is currently tied more to rumor than anything else. Someday fundamentals like the fact that Apple dominates mobile device and PC profits will re-emerge as more dominant factors. This will happen in the second half of this year with new product introductions. In the meantime all bets are off.
    Apr 17 10:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Read This Before Earnings [View article]
    Greater than 60% of Intel earnings and revenues come from X86 PC related sales. Data center growth will continue but not at a rate that will make up for lost PC related sales. Ditto on mobile related sales, at least for the rest of this year.
    Apr 16 10:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Floundering And The Stock Price Is Down [View article]
    Come on guys. Impatience is one of the biggest sources of investment failure right after total dependence on technical analysis.
    Technical analysis is number 2 for many investors - ask Andy Zaky, teh Apple fund manager who just went bust. Technical analysis is just one of many indicators of past behavior which can at best only be extrapolated into the future witha significant risk of being wrong. Many studies have shown that it has no more probability of success than flipping a coin.

    What very important for the astute investor is that Apple has a number of new products in the pipeline. These products are highly likely to have features that will be seen as killer aps if not seen as on-going innovation.

    The probability that this statement is correct is much higher than being wrong for many reasons . Not the least of which the Samsung's Galaxy IV demonstrates that Samsung has hit the wall in its ability to one up Apple in the high end marketplace.

    As part of the new product lineup it is highly likely Apple will be in a positon to compete strongly in rapidly in the mid-range iDevice marketplace.

    Ignore this likely realities at your own risk.
    Apr 15 11:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Windows 8 Isn't A Flop ... Yet [View article]
    It is not at all clear that users want or can benefit in any significant way from adding touch features to the traditional PC, emphasis here is on "traditional.". Trying to add touch to the PC has overly complicated matters. HP tried this years ago and dropped the product quickly.

    Note that Apple has not added touch to its PC line, at least not of as yet. And there aren't even any good rumors to that effect. If they thought it was a worthwhile innovation, it is reasonable to assume they would have done it by now.

    Microsoft just makes things that are too complicated, awkward and un-intuitive. In a nut shell, bloatware that is unnecessarily hard to use and unreliable . I have even gotten a blue screen several times on my relatively new Win 7 PC and multiple browser crashes. I also had many problems with Word opening documents in a read only fashion and Word crashes that create the nead to deal with recoverd file lists where each document has to be resaved individually. The Win 7 "repair process" fixed the blue screens and browser problems but I still have problems with Word. There is also a lack of continuity between Windows and Office versions forcing customers to retrain on key functions that they take for granted and use every day. Win 8 has graphically, pun intended, illustrated the problem in spades.

    Microsoft has a chronic problem understanding what customers really want and need. It isn't always what they say nor is adequately gleaned up in surveys. No survey could have anticipated the iPad because the technology did not exist before Apple made one. Witness the early responses to the iPad: "Who needs it? What good is it?" The sarcasm sunk to the extremes: "Is it some kind of feminine product?"

    Apple management will tell you you don't get what you really need from surveys and they have the evidence to prove it.

    Windows 8 is a failure because Microsoft tried to include something for everybody. And the rush to market was so fast that the products that might have really demonstrated some "killer" aps are still only in development. Too little to late.

    Microsoft management has never learned to say no to what might first appear to be a good idea. If they wanted to do something useful they would survey products already in the field and see what they have been doing wrong. The need to understand what people are really using and how often they do so. They need to understand how users feel about ease of use or lack there of and in particular reliability. They need to understand what features users are really hungry for vs a feel good response.

    Steve Jobs talks about the attribute of knowing when to say no serveral times over in the Walter Isaacson biography. That attribute obviously led to better products.

    I have said it before and I will say it again, it is just too risky to own Microsoft and unfortunately Intel now. I sold the Intel shares I had bought a month or so ago with the expectation that the hype over mobile would add a few bucks to the share price, which it did. So I made a small profit.
    Apr 12 06:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Using Share Buybacks To Support Its Stock Price? [View article]
    Markos, By what logic do you suggest that Apple share price should be going down at this point in time? Sounds like wide eyed speculation or technical hooey to me.
    Apr 9 11:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's March Quarter Madness [View article]
    Nokia's deal with China Mobile includes the 920T model which is TD-LTE compatible as a result of the QCOM chips already on board. However Nokia was having serious delivery issues as of last month:

    http://bloom.bg/VF0Uxy

    "While 90,000 Lumia 920T models were ordered through Jan. 30, Nokia only shipped 30,000, said Li Yan, a China Mobile spokeswoman"

    The iPhone 5 and the potential 5S model will only capture a very small fraction of the available China Mobile market due to their high costs and lack of a sufficient carrier subsidy. Yet a small fraction will still yield significant new revenues and earnings for Apple.

    I submit that an additional lower cost iPhone will result in a much larger overall revenue and earnings gain for Apple. Yes some of this will be at the expense of higher end phone sales. Overall however, this will result in even larger revenue and earnings gains and very significantly, add a huge number of new ecosystem customers.

    ADDENDUM: I would submit that it is likely that there will be no Apple deal with China Mobile unless it includes a lower cost iPhone. The good news is that the government does not like China's dependence on phones that use Google's Android operating system and the People's Daily is lobbying for Apple to be more consumer friendly if you read between the lines. Since China Mobile and the People's Daily are government owned this is all a good sign for an Apple-China Mobile deal but it will require some Apple margin sacrifice.
    Mar 27 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's March Quarter Madness [View article]
    Thanks Paul for another analysis that just deals with the facts and states them very clearly and unemotionally. Long term investors will continue to be rewarded at rates that continue to exceed any S&P 500 stock.

    Apple is a durable growth as well as value stock for the foreseeable future. It is not going down in flames in the face of new competition as Nokia and Blackberry did despite the wild and unfounded statements to the contrary. Apple's established ecosystem and broad mobile and leading edge PC product line locks customers in and will continue to bring in new customers. Broadening the handset line to include lower cost versions will bring many new ecosystem customers into the Apple fold.

    My bet is that the lower cost headset and on-going leadership at the high end are all that are needed now to lock in China Mobile. This lockin will be sufficient to re-establish sales growth rates for several more years in and of itself. Margins in the 30-40% range will still provide huge earnings growth.

    And then there is the wide open opportunity for other new products including the iWatch, automotive design ins, Apple "TV," etc. Innovation is far from dead at Apple.
    Mar 24 09:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Samsung Dethroned Apple? [View article]
    If Samsung, aka copy cat Sumdung, listed on the New York or NASDAQ stock exchange they would be subjected to more stringent accounting and reporting requirements. There is a reason that Samsung prefers to traded as a pink sheet stock. That should tell you something about company ethics and transparency.
    Mar 10 05:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: There Is No Apple Foundry Deal [View article]
    Rovo, This is certainly one of many interesting scenarios that may happen. I agree that it will be a two step process. Apple will not be ready to jump to an Intel based mobile based processor in the near term. It would be >1 year at least and even that is optimistic. However a long term conversion strategy is possible depending on the success of Intel's proprietary mobile technology which is far from given at this point in time.

    The immediate Apple need is to get out of Samsung. Going fully to TSMC has a lot of jeopardy and possible very high cost in the form of additional wafer fab capacity. Intel already has that capacity with more of it going idle every day. There is going to be a lot of pressure on Intel's treasury and stock price if they do not find a way to take those fabs back to 90% capacity this year.
    Mar 9 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: There Is No Apple Foundry Deal [View article]
    "Intel: There Is No Apple Foundry Deal" < The title is correct for the time being but not necessarily for the longer term. Nothing is cast in concrete and there are very good business reasons for these two companies to work together. Never underestimate the huge market forces that are at work.
    Mar 9 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Really Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    "Until there is a neat sign that Apple can turn its fortunes (and those of its shareholders) around, as much as the stock may appear irresistibly cheap, I wouldn't touch it." <= Who says Apple's fortunes are in the tank? Its the investors who are selling that have it wrong.
    Mar 9 11:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Won't Build Apple's iPhone Chips [View article]
    Reuters: $AAPL & $INTC may be working on a deal that will be advantageos for both cos. as they compete with Samsung http://stks.co/dMjK
    Mar 7 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Can't Let Samsung Win [View article]
    Reuters: $AAPL & $INTC working on deal that will be advantageos for both cos. Bad news for Samsung http://stks.co/dMjK
    Mar 7 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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