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Robert McDonald  

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  • Apple's Fiscal Q2: iPhone Channel Tailwind [View article]
    We should also see record Chinese New Year Holiday sales. Chongqing and Tianjin stores in process of opening now. Everything is in place for record breaking Q2.
    Feb 2, 2015. 10:06 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Fiscal Q2: iPhone Channel Tailwind [View article]
    In addition to the 3M unit inventory catch up tailwind we will have many potential Samsung buyers switching to Apple. The snowball has just begun to roll down the hill.

    Anyone who knows what is going on and has the money, will not want more Android based phones and phones that cannot be updated to the latest Android versions, as flawed as they may be. Cell phones now support mission critical applications for enterprise and individuals and software must be kept at the state of the art. Those who know better won't take a chance on Android or even Microsoft crapware.
    Feb 2, 2015. 10:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Up Apple's Amazing 2015 [View article]
    I think you are spot on in the following comment:

    "The problem is that I don't see any rational, objective way to set a price target, even if I felt absolutely certain about Apple's financial performance. This is not for lack of methodology, but because the market is not rational. The market's low valuation of Apple wasn't rational in 2013, and it still isn't in my view."

    Added to this problem is the fact analysts and most pundits don't really understand the business Apple is in and their business model. We are talking about the mobile web buildout and not just smartphones per se. As to smartphones, they are going to continue to get a whole lot more capable in support of ongoing mobile web and App capabilities, which in turn will drive new models and sales into the indefinite future.

    No one will leave home without their wireless devices. Mobile devices will become more and more essential to the navigation of the increasingly complex world we live in. And of course more and more computing will move to the wireless web and Smart Phones and Tablets will be the smart terminals everyone will depend on in addition to providing more and more computing power going forward.

    It was no accident that Apple went to 64 bit computing long before any other wireless device provider. Apple sees the future better than most and that includes the investment community as well.
    Dec 26, 2014. 02:41 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Up Apple's Amazing 2015 [View article]
    Horace Deidu does a great job of saying why 2015 will see major Apple iOS and Apple device penetration of the enterprise. He is calling this the "biggest news event of 2014" (presumably he is talking about technology news):
    Dec 26, 2014. 02:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Up Apple's Amazing 2015 [View article]
    We will also likely have large enterprise adoption in 2014 due to Apple's new focus in this area plus the IBM partnership. Mobile Aps will replace a lot of what is being done on PC's today and will do it a whole lot faster, cheaper and better livetime wherever the user might be. A lot of Corporate IT will be looking for work in other capacities. Among other factors we will see a surge in iPad sales.

    Then there is also the rumored low cost 4" form factor iPhone which should lead to good worldwide sales in places like India.

    As if that is not good enough, it is becoming widely known that Android cannot support the security needs of fingerprint readers and safe payment systems. This means that the future of would be Chinese competitors like Xiaomi will never get above the midrange leaving the large profits to Apple.

    Apple's prospects in 2015 look better than they ever have before.
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:57 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Up Apple's Amazing 2015 [View article]
    Institutional investors are still well below the allocation that would be required to equal their S&P 500 benchmark. Lots of room for more institutional players. Also given the instability in financial markets around the world Apple is an ideal investment for foreign investors, especially since the $ can be expected to remain solid for at least one more year if not continue to rise relative to other currencies. Remember the European ECB is about to do a bond buyback program just like the one Ben did.
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Up Apple's Amazing 2015 [View article]
    That's real easy to say. Not so easy to justify.
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With Google? [View article]
    I am dumping the last of my Google. Using an acquisition to turn the financial picture around is a crapshoot at a time when there are obvious better investments in other companies. Apple for one remains underpriced, certainly as compared to Google.

    This company just does too many mindless things like not insisting all Android products be upgradeable to new versions of Android and providing the cloud resources to make it happen, pushing Glass when you knew it would never be acceptable as a routine consumer product, and the ridiculous split to keep the owners in power while creating investor confusion. I should have dumped the rest of my holdings when I sold the last big chunk some time ago.

    The recent bad press about how Google's main product being information it collects from Search users is the seed that will slowly erode user confidence such they will find ways to keep that info from Google. It is only a matter of time.
    Dec 5, 2014. 07:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Facing A Challenge From Google's Android [View article]
    Use iOS vs. Android market share numbers to draw any meaningful conclusions about the current and future business success of these two operating systems is a ridiculous and meaningless thing to do. Many Android devices are being sold for $100 to $300 and even less and most of these have no profit margin. Use of this market share data is like comparing the number of nickels in use vs. $100 bills. I'll take the pile of $100 bills that are in circulation anyday.
    Dec 5, 2014. 06:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iOS Vs. Android (And Why I Shop Less On Android) [View article]
    Nicely said Thotdoc. Succinct and to the point :

    "Google's culture is not around a better user experience. It's about monetizing the user's information. Users are things to be used for Google...
    Apple's approach is to monetize the user by making it all easier and more fun.

    Guess who will win in the long run?"
    Dec 5, 2014. 06:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Facing A Challenge From Google's Android [View article]
    Android SW is fundamentally flawed. Malware, lack of privacy and devices cannot reliably update to the latest versions. This means access to the latest Aps is limited. Hello, why would anyone who is educated in the facts buy Android unless they want some kind of bargain. Of course the old axiom that you get what you pay for applies.

    And as if that were not enough, Apple equivalent 64 bit speed performance on Android is at least 1 year away, so even speed freaks should stay away.
    Dec 5, 2014. 03:24 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Thanks Peter for your very useful analysis. Any serious investor is going to read and benefit from reports like these. And it is a credit to Seeking Alpha that credible articles are still being published here despite some very misleading and irresponsible postings.
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Surging, iPad Collapsing - Apple May Be Near Its Peak [View article]
    Shadac, Don't buy into market folklore. There are no rules about market crashes that are written into any law of physics. Every time things are different. This time, with all the money that has been stuffed into the world money supply, more and more continues to find its way into the most successful stock markets. With the US being the most reliable stock market for several years to come you will find a very large fraction of the money there. CSCO, HPQ and MSFT are yesterdays stocks. Put your money where the growth is. Right now that is in the mobile web buildout and all the ancillary on-line tools and products including Apple, FB, Alibaba (Yahoo), Skyworks and maybe IBM given the Apple enterprise partnership. Use LEAPs and longer term options call options for leverage. Read the section on call options in Options for Dummies and forget all the spreads, puts and other crap that people push that compromise payback. Just think basic buying call option strategies. Don't sell calls as the payback is too small and if you use any margin at all you will find huge dents into your available capital.

    The rich are not pulling their money out. Look at the growth in money under management at successful hedge funds as well as Blackrock and Goldman Sachs.
    Nov 28, 2014. 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Surging, iPad Collapsing - Apple May Be Near Its Peak [View article]
    Gary J,

    I 'll take my tax problem anytime to the more limited gains you have had paying full price for Apple stock and then just holding. Crying all the way to the bank.

    If you do the math you will see what I mean.

    I follow my investments whether they be stocks or options Monday-Friday for an hour or two. Yes some days it may be more for example when the Apple earnings report comes out or new products are introduced but this is the exception. Believe me the equivalent hourly rate I am being paid in return for this effort is well worth it. And if you don't watch your investments regularly someone may be eating your lunch or you will have many lost opportunities.

    I have been retired for over 16 years now, thanks to this very kind of investment activity as funded early on by my Intel employee stock options exercised over the 1979-1998 period. I have "learned" that my efforts in following my investments and the business world are not only entertaining and enjoyable but have also paid off very handsomely. I not only have plenty of time to pursue other interests but also plenty of money to make my participation in this interests and the rest of my retirement life pretty cushy. But thanks for asking.
    Nov 27, 2014. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Surging, iPad Collapsing - Apple May Be Near Its Peak [View article]
    Exercising a LEAP or OPTION means that you ponied up the strike price and purchased the stock using the LEAP up in the process. In other words if you are holding an Apple LEAP with strike price of $90, and you want to buy 100 shares at the $90 price you have to come up with $9000 cash and the 100 shares you held in the form of LEAP are gone. You exercised them. You do not have to exercise all of the shares in the LEAP but the ones you exercise are subtracted from the ones you have an option to buy at $90. I may very well do this by year end to push gains into 2015 and if it works out, hold those shares until they become everything becomes long term capital gains in Dec 2015. The basis for that purchase would be whatever you paid for the 100 share portion of the LEAP as well as the $9000 cash you paid at the time of exercise. I hope that makes sense.
    Nov 27, 2014. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment