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Robert McDonald

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  • Apple: Sitting At The Precipice Of A Massive Move Higher [View article]
    Use Apple LEAP's if you want 100 - 300% returns over 6 mo to 1 year holding periods. You don't need technical analysis, a fancy computer or rocket science and it is totally legal.
    Aug 28 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Sitting At The Precipice Of A Massive Move Higher [View article]
    Steve Jobs has left an Apple management team and corporate culture in place that can run circles around any other technology or even entertainment company in the marketplace (see the significance of the reality of this in my comment below on "Apple TV"). There are also products and a product roadmap in place that includes continued development of its sticky ecosystem that will keed the momentum going for the foreseeable future.

    And then there is the possible Apple home entertainment/HDTV system with features that go way beyond TIVO and that will grow the sticky ecosystem in an even faster way, all of which has got to have major positive ramifications for ongoing revenue and earnings growth -- sell Netflix and buy Apple LEAPs.

    Apple Jan 2014 LEAPs go on sale on September 12 which means you can acquire them before the next blowout earnings report!

    Due disclosure: Very long on Apple and Apple LEAPs.
    Aug 28 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Sitting At The Precipice Of A Massive Move Higher [View article]
    Andy's track record on Apple has been good but not because of technical analysis. It is based on his fundamental analysis of sales and earnings data and projections thereon. Other calls by Andy and others using technical analysis have been way off. I stick to business fundamentals in my investment decisions. And yes of course I look at the charts to get a feeling for sentiment and trends relative to sentiment but it does not take any statistics or graphic arts to do so. I like to keep my head high and focus on the data and my shoulders to the keyboard doing homework. This is all the heads and shoulders, trianglulatons and candlesticks I need.

    In any case thanks Andy for your unequaled and valuable homework on Apple business fundamentals and business trends. I read every article that you publish on SA.
    Aug 28 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX Owns The 4G Crown Jewels [View article]
    The fact that IDCC is in an auction process which will continue through Labor Day weekend has been published on Bloomberg news:
    Aug 25 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel to Computer Makers: Ultrabooks Will Save You [View article]
    I do agree that Ultrabooks will put some zip back into Wintel laptop sales including corporate and maybe more importantly on the consumer side. However you get what you pay for in the way of functionality, dependability and reliability. I don't expect this to slow down Apple's momentum.

    Don't forget the ecosystem that acts like a spider web in keeping existing customers and widening their purchases all the way from Macbooks, to iPAD's to iPhones, to streaming music and video from the iCloud; and in reverse order as well.

    Don't forget the utility of iOS Aps in addressing consumer and corporate needs and their huge addition to the sticky ecosystem. I am finding that I spend more and more of my in what used to be "computer" activity and "internet surfing" in the much more productive and useful Ap world, at least where the proper aps exist at this point in time.

    I used to do my M-F, 3-5 hour/day investment research switching my computer screen back and forth between two Wintel desktop computers. Now I am in a much more productive mode using my iPAD mounted in a metal stand displaying the useful CNBC Ap to the right of my screen and my iPhone lying in front. Both can be easily switched to various stock specific Aps including stock and market specific Twitter feeds. This can be done quickly, reliably and with none of the complications presented by web browsers.

    Once there are useful Aps available for my Macbook pro, it will surely replace one of the two Wintel PC's for the Ap world capability plus other reasons.

    Finally don't forget the new Apple entertainment system with HDTV and built in beyond TIVO equivalent functionality and easy to search, use, and store cable programming and streaming internet video. This is going to bring a whole new set of Apple clientele into their increasinglypowerful and sticky ecosystem.
    Aug 20 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Should Be Worried About Google+? [View article]
    Facebook, other than its large user base, has no moat and continually abuses the privacy of its membership. They have now surpassed earlier abuses with their new face recognition software. Any smart person should remove their photo to avoid all kinds of scams including some that have already been announced and some of which could be dangerous.

    I believe that it is highly likely that that Facebook's IPO pricing will not meet current lofty expectations, particularly if Google + continues to grow at a rapid rate. Then there's also the possibility of some very public, very nasty lawsuits as a result its privacy violations.

    As a Google admirer and investor I am very happy about the introduction of Google +. It appears to be a very good product and best of all it appears to provide proper respect for the privacy of its users.

    Unfortunately however, a major Google weakness has been revealed in its deployment of Android and Honeycomb mobile web operating systems. Management appears to have been totally blind sighted by the need to have strong Intellectual Property rights and associated patents. Where was Eric Schmidt in all of this -- he of all people should have known better and knew full well they were going to head to head with Apple and others.

    Added to this serious and unforgivable mistake is the clandestine "borrowing" of IP from others, witness the Oracle lawsuit regarding use of Java without licensing rights. These problems are a serious threat to their potential high profit mobile web business. It will be a significant test of management skill in recovering from this debacle. They need to do it with minimal damage but it is likely to be very expensive, witness the expensive bidding for IDCC that will soon be making headlines. All of this bears watching if you are a Google investor.

    Due disclosure: Long Google, Apple and IDCC
    Aug 14 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Strong Value and Upside Potential [View article]
    The future success of a corporation starts at the top. If you have bad management you cannot expect a company to show good performance in the marketplace. HWP and MSFT have been badly damaged by bad management that has been in place for years and their P/E's reflect this reality. It is not getting any better.

    Instead of putting your precious investment funds to work in a so called "value play" company and waiting around for what seems an eternity for a payback, witness Cisco, why not put your money where there is top flight management in place and the growth prospects are much better? For example Apple, Oracle, Netsuite, EMC, TDC, etc.

    I would have put Google in the list except that it has become recently very clear that management's total lack of recognition of the need to own strong Intellectual Property rights and associated patents, and the clandestine "borrowing" of IP from others, is a very serious mistake that is a serious threat to their potential high profit mobile web business. This is another example of how a management mistake can be so damaging to a company's prospects. It will be a significant test of management skill in recovering from this debacle -- bears watching if you are a Google investor.
    Aug 13 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Juniper a Bargain Now? [View article]
    You compare apples to oranges in your use of ARW, IM, CHKP and FTNT benchmarks.
    Aug 7 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brocade Not Completely Unraveled Yet [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback -- I suggest we all keep our collective ears open and post any developments here. I am about to add Brocade to my Stocktwits watch list. I have already done this for IDCC several weeks ago as a for sure acquisition candidate. I was able to discover some pretty significant information early on here. I am long on both Brocade and IDCC Jan 2012 calls with an acquisition possibility in mind. I got in early on IDCC and the calls are in the money big time even after the recent pullback. Brocade would make a very good acquisition candidate for CSCO but agree CSCO has its hands full now. Maybe Chambers will finally be removed. Unfortunately with Jerry Yang and Carol Bartz on the board this will probably not happen -- this is not an activist board.
    Aug 6 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Stocks Deeply Oversold [View article]
    Well you guys finally published something useful. I had stopped clicking on anything with your tagline. Thank you.
    Aug 5 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Trades to Prepare for the Coming Global Recession [View article]
    The decrease in consumer spending and corporate hiring as reported in the latest numbers and that contributed to the recent sell off are exaggerated indicators are not representative of the longer term reality. These numbers were grossly misleading due to the uncertainty introduced into the economy by the debt ceiling standoff in Congress as incited by Tea Party members. If they really represented Americans, they would realize that you don't deal with matters like this with "my way or the highway" tactics. This violates all of the rules of effective management and governance that have been learned over many centuries by civilized human beings. You also would have thought that they were aware of the negative consequences to the Republican Party caused by the Newt Gingrich government shutdown of 1995.

    What should they have done? The answer is well known -- they should have used the standard well known tools known as effective win-win team work, effective negotiations, constructive confrontation and situational leadership.

    John Boehner and the Tea Party do not speak for this American nor for most other responsible Americans that I know.
    Aug 5 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brocade Not Completely Unraveled Yet [View article]
    Brocade has to be a buyout candidate at this price. Anybody else have a take on this??
    Aug 5 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Margin Pressures May Be Temporary: Buy on Dips [View article]
    Errata: Replace Atom with ARM in this sentence: "ARM earnings will never be able to make up for lost X86 earnings and revenue. "
    Aug 5 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Margin Pressures May Be Temporary: Buy on Dips [View article]
    Intel's margin pressures are here to stay. Intel has had the luxury of only one X86 competitor going back to the 1980's, a fairly marginal AMD. X86 sales represent greater than 90% of Intel's earnings.

    Intel's Atom chips are very low margin compared to the X86 and each Atom sale for mobile and portable computing potentially undermines at some fractional amount their X86 pricing and sales. The Atom must compete with low cost ARM processors made by multiple companies who are all competing with each other. ARM earnings will never be able to make up for lost X86 earnings and revenue.

    Now it is quite likely you will soon have ARM based server processors, the last X86 based high margin stronghold. The RISC threat is back and it is significant (ARM processors are RISC based for those who may not be aware of this).

    For over 30 years Intel's effort to diversify and have significant earnings power for products other than the X86 has never been successful and unfortunately this problem is still with them.

    The analysis of Intel's financials presented above is only a part of stock purchase or sale decision. If you want to make good investment decisions you must be familiar with the companies business fundamentals and their competition. This is where many money managers go wrong. We fired our last ever money manager two years due to this kind of problem and he was not the first to be fired. He had bought Nokia and made it his largest holding based on this kind of analysis and he refused to buy upcoming Apple. That made it easy to make a firing decision.
    Aug 5 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interdigital Can Force the Future to Pay for the Past [View article]
    "InterDigital Appreciates 50% With Apple-Google Rush for Patents: Real M&A"
    Jul 26 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment