Robert Nabloid

Anecdotal Musing: Commercial Real Estate, You Can't Go Wrong

I think being short commercial real estate is the best course of action. We have plenty of big box retailers going out of business or closing stores. We have layoffs at many corporations. Who will rent the empty stores? One thing I do know is that REITs are usually heavily leveraged with debt and if vacancies climb that could spell disaster for some. Another point to make is this - right now we may be lowering interest rates - but some think interest rates will be climbing rapidly if inflation or hyperinflation hits after the deflationary fears end with all the Fed intervention. IMHO, it is better to short this sucker while the retailers close their stores. I expect lots of bad news in Jan and Feb after a dismal Xmas.