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Robert Rapier

 
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  • Crude-by-rail shipments from western Canada seen tripling in next two years [View news story]
    "Is BSNF not a public company (can't find the ticker), subsumed by Brk?"

    Correct.
    Jun 11 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Devon Energy: Jim Cramer And Analysts Say Buy [View article]
    Others made the point first, but maybe six months ago Cramer was saying "Avoid Devon. They can't do anything right." I do own Devon, but wonder if that Cramer endorsement isn't a sign that I should cash in my ~30% gain and start looking for another bargain.
    Jun 11 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude-by-rail shipments from western Canada seen tripling in next two years [View news story]
    "My question also, which railroad, which tanker car mfgrs. will get all this action?"

    American Railcar Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARII) as well. I put a Buy recommendations on ARII in March 2013. The 12 month return on this one is 92%.
    Jun 10 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude-by-rail shipments from western Canada seen tripling in next two years [View news story]
    "Zacks stock news reports that it costs 5 times more to ship rail than it does pipeline."

    It is more expensive, but if the pipelines are jammed and the differentials are high, they will still ship it. That's why Bakken oil by rail went from near zero to 700,000 bpd in about 3 years.
    Jun 10 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude-by-rail shipments from western Canada seen tripling in next two years [View news story]
    "Wouldn't the railroad to benefit the most be BNSF?"

    This is definitely true out of the Bakken. Warren Buffett also said a couple of years ago that they can gear up and transport a lot of oil out of the Athabasca as well.
    Jun 10 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "Recall, 4Q production (~400,000 gallons) arrived slightly below target"

    I want to put this in perspective. This is from an article I wrote in January, and it shows how poorly management performed with respect to the guidance they issued. It shows they were totally out of touch with reality. Here's the link to the article, followed by an excerpt on the relevant bits on KiOR: http://bit.ly/1wCfZ7I

    On May 9, nearly halfway through Q2 of last year, KiOR CEO Fred Cannon stated, “We expect that total fuel production during the second quarter will range between 300,000 and 500,000 gallons, keeping us on track to fall within our projected production range of 3 million to 5 million gallons for 2013.” The actual amount of product shipped for the quarter came in at only 75,000 gallons. When the actual volume was announced, the share price plummeted and investor lawsuits were filed.

    In August Cannon lowered guidance: “We expect our full year production levels will be in the 1 million to 2 million gallon range.” Another statement in November was considerably weaker when he said, “We believe that our full year production levels will exceed 1 million gallons.” The actual production number for the year was reported to be 894,000 gallons — lower than even the reduced guidances and about 7 percent of the stated capacity of the plant. Investors can’t be very confident in future projections given last year’s track record.
    May 30 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    You continue to post false information. First, in the previous article on this, you wrote: "KIOR imo great buy right now there last Q production numbers were best to date." I don't see a qualifier there. Since the last quarter was Q1, you were mistaken or sloppy with your wording.

    Here, again you wrote "not some old oil just sitting around like ROB posted." I had specifically indicated that the gallons they sold were from the previous quarter's production, and here you are trying to argue they are from the R&D facilities -- even though the 10-Q says they produced 0 gallons in the first quarter. Although you have made multiple false claims, I have yet to see you acknowledge you were wrong about any of them. Still think the stock was at $9 in January 2013? A wrong claim from you, yet your misinformation led to you calling me a liar.

    As far as your repetitive posts that "upgrades continue", I can't help but wonder if you either didn't read the 10-Q, or just don't understand what you read. Here is the particularly relevant bit:

    "While the Company has completed some of these projects and upgrades, it has elected to suspend all optimization work and bring the Columbus facility to a safe, idle state, which the Company believes will enable it to restart the facility upon the achievement of additional research and development milestones and if it is able to raise additional working capital."

    In other words, upgrades do not continue unless they can raise additional capital -- well beyond what Khosla gave them. He provided enough to keep the lights on, not enough to run the plant. The only hope they have is to reel in someone willing to write a much bigger check -- in which case they will run a bit longer (depending on the size of the check).
    May 30 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "YOu are a liar .47 was not the close when you wrote about the 97 percent loss"

    Just to close the loop on this, I wrote that in the comments on Adam's previous article in the evening of May 23rd. On that day the share price closed at $0.52. Now, why don't you calculate the percentage loss from $16.14 -- the close on the date when I wrote that article in 2011 -- to $0.52? I will help you if you don't own a calculator: It's 96.8%, which most people would simply round to 97%. You, on the other hand, have been demonstrably wrong on several matters of fact here -- such as your assertion that KiOR traded at $9 in January 2013. Or your assertion that the last quarter was their best ever production quarter -- when in fact the plant was idle the entire quarter.

    I won't hold my breath for an apology for your repeated failure to get the most basic information correct -- and then calling me a liar as a result of your failings. Good luck, man. Because you are definitely going to need some luck.
    May 29 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "not some old oil just sitting around like ROB posted ."

    You are intentionally posting false/misleading information. Just above that section in the 10Q is this: "Our product revenue was $102,000 for the three months ended March 31, 2014 compared to $68,000 for the same period in 2013. Product revenue was primarily generated by cellulosic gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil shipments from products we produced prior to idling our Columbus facility."

    Then they have a table showing 0 gallons produced in 2014. So they sold $102,000 of previously produced fuel, on which they lost $23.5 million. It's one thing to troll, but it's another to post false information to try to manipulate a stock. You might not manage to remain anonymous for long.
    May 29 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "Robert, you should know better than to feed trolls"

    Going to stop. He isn't just trolling; he is posting false information which I am sure is a violation of Seeking Alpha's guidelines. There are several instances above.
    May 29 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "YOu are a liar .47 was not the close when you wrote about the 97 percent loss"

    Get a new calculator. You have already been wrong about the stock trading at $9 in January 2013, and you are wrong about this. I would ask you to look at the date I said that and the price (this isn't the first time the price has been $0.47), but it's clear you aren't actually interested in a factual discussion.

    Yes, I am sure you know all about how snake oil men work. Since you are anonymous and I am not, one of us will definitely slink away, but with have a bruised brokerage account. You would be daft to think "KiOR is looking better than ever", but you are just trying to get some suckers to buy your shares. For 3 years I have said "KiOR is overvalued." I didn't mentioned bankruptcy 3 years ago; I only spelled out their challenges. Was I right? $16.14 when I wrote that article. It's publicly available. Was I right?

    As the poster below notes, I am just feeding a troll. You are posting false information in an attempt to manipulate the stock. Time to stop.
    May 29 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "stock was 9 dollors jan 2013 hmmm explain that snake oil man"

    This is funny, incidentally, because the share price traded between $5.45 and $7.60 in January 2013. It never traded at $9 in January 2013. Not that it matters, because my article is from October 2011. It must be great to be an anonymous poster who can just make things up, eh? Snake oil indeed.
    May 28 11:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "any which way you slice it its sure shows your either incompetent or just out right liar."

    Or, perhaps you aren't reading for comprehension. From my link above, I wrote an article on October 17, 2011 arguing the KiOR was grossly overvalued and that in no way was it deserving of its market cap. The closing share price that day was $16.14. The close today was $0.47, a loss of 97 percent from the day I wrote that article. My comments are documented, as I said, nearly 3 years ago, and I have written several updates. And time has proven that my thesis was clearly correct. I have no idea what you are babbling about, but you are obviously very confused.

    As far as insiders, Stuart Peterson was one of the biggest shareholders and has been dumping shares for months. In fact, insider sales are a huge red flag; 72 sells and 8 buys in the past year: http://bit.ly/1kijUN3

    Feel free to apologize for calling me a liar for YOUR mistake.
    May 28 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "By the way Mr Gates and Mr Kholsa have lost nothing until they sell shares"

    Khosla already lost a lot of money in Range Fuels, and Gates lost a lot of money in Pacific Ethanol (something like 50% of his position when the shares were sold). So once more, there is no reason to think these guys have any special insights into biofuels, and more than a fair bit of evidence that they don't. So invest alongside them in this arena at your peril.
    May 28 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "I would never give any indication of my buying or selling or at what price"

    Then you needn't try to convince anyone that you have been right about anything to do with the company. Until you put your predictions out there, or publicly say "I bought X today at this price" then your comments have zero credibility.

    As far as the bankruptcy, I predict bankruptcy for them by year end, but also have said that it's entirely possible that Khosla will keep writing checks to keep them afloat because his credibility is on the line after his high profile Range Fuels failure (which I also predicted a year before it happened). But the Columbia Dispatch interviewed me in March and asked if I agreed with the sentiments that KiOR would be declaring bankruptcy on April 1, and I said "No, I think they will get the $25 million from Khosla, which should be enough to keep people employed until August -- but it won't be enough to run the plant." Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. That's not from some anonymous trader on the Internet making claims that can't be verified. My predictions are out there, publicly available, and have so far all proven true with respect to KiOR (as they were with Range Fuels before).
    May 28 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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76 Comments
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