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Robert Rapier

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  • Devon Energy: Why The Shares Are Rallying In 2014 [View article]
    "Devon Energy (DVN) is a case study on why it pays to be patient with long-term value stories that you believe in. I picked up these cheap shares in the fourth quarter of 2013."

    Ditto for me. I was telling everyone who would listen in the 2nd half of last year that DVN was as close to a no-brainer as there was, but you might have to be patient.
    Apr 14 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Has A High Yield Of 3.94%, But Earnings Contraction Makes Me Uncomfortable [View article]
    I have owned COP since the merger in 2002 when I worked for them, and I have never sold a share, and always reinvested my dividends. It's been a good strategy for me.
    Apr 10 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death May Be Knocking On KiOR's Door [View article]
    I would point out that I said Khosla would do this a week ago. He did exactly what I said he would do. I would also note that this isn't the first time this happened. Last fall he announced he was giving them some money, and the stock immediately popped up by 50%. Then it slowly slid back down to the level it was before it popped by the end of the year.

    As Sidi notes, this news doesn't change the fundamentals. Khosla hasn't given them enough money to run the plant; just enough to keep the doors open while he tries to secure someone to put up more money.
    Apr 3 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death May Be Knocking On KiOR's Door [View article]
    I have told several reporters the past week that Khosla would keep them afloat for now. Funny how the share price moved up 30% yesterday on no news. I told a friend "Just watch; tomorrow they are a going to announce new money from Khosla, and the insiders are getting in there today. If I was a gambler and not an investor I might put a few dollars down here because this dead cat is going to bounce."
    Apr 1 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death May Be Knocking On KiOR's Door [View article]
    "In my opinion it is hydrogenated vegetable/ animal oils."

    Agree with that. After all, the world's largest biofuel plant is a Neste plant in Singapore, with a similar-sized plant in Europe, that hydrotreats vegetable oils to produce jet fuel length hydrocarbons. We were also working on this at ConocoPhillips when I was there.

    I think Solazyme will continue to evolve out of the bulk fuels market. They have a future in specialty chemicals, but at what market cap I can't say. It's a much smaller market, but one with better margins that bulk fuel.
    Mar 26 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death May Be Knocking On KiOR's Door [View article]
    Well, I didn't say Solazyme was a bargain, just that I expect them to still be in operation. I think they have evolved as the challenges of competing in the fuel market have become clearer. Whether they are worth their market cap is a different matter.
    Mar 26 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Death May Be Knocking On KiOR's Door [View article]
    The CEO dumped a chunk of his shares the day before the 10K was made public. Another executive did as well, and they had been selling the week before as well.
    Mar 26 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death May Be Knocking On KiOR's Door [View article]
    Solazyme is probably the "least bad alternative." I have said before that they are likely to still be operating as a company in 10 years, while KiOR is not.
    Mar 25 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death May Be Knocking On KiOR's Door [View article]
    I can't believe no major publication has yet noted the insider sales just before the 10K was filed. Executives -- including the CEO -- were dumping shares just before the 10K filing caused the share price to plummet.
    Mar 25 01:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. issues emergency testing order to crude-by-rail shippers [View news story]
    "That incident was in CANADA, and five people regretfully died."

    Actually 47 people died in the Lac-M├ęgantic incident.
    Feb 27 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66: Pssst! Whisper Number For Wednesday's Earnings Release [View article]
    I think Valero has signaled that the refining business was much improved in Q4. I have been saying this since October; that Q4 was going to be much better. Then Valero came out last week and said estimates for their earnings were far too low. So I think you are probably on the right track.

    Also long PSX, and an engineer. :)
    Jan 28 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KiOR -9% on Raymond James downgrade [View news story]
    Anyone who invested the first time they recommended KiOR 2 years ago and held until today's downgrade is sitting on nearly a 90% loss.
    Jan 10 11:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Improved outlook seen for ConocoPhillips, oil prices at Raymond James [View news story]
    Molchanov is also the guy who kept a Buy on KiOR all the way through a 90 percent loss.
    Jan 6 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroleo Brasileiro: Buy When Others Are Fearful [View article]
    "The Brazilian government has a consistent record of using the cash of outside investors to benefit their people."

    That's the real problem. I think the key to buying when others are fearful is that you have pretty good evidence that their fear is unfounded. Here, you are really buying into a big chunk of the Brazilian government, who is going to extract money from PBR whenever they need it. That's a real fear, as evidenced by recent history. When the fear is very real and based on what a South American government might or might not do, I stay away. It's the same reason I avoid companies that essentially exist due to government mandates -- which can disappear overnight.

    Incidentally, I initially bought PBR when oil prices collapsed at the end of 2008. The price plummeted on what I felt was an unfounded fear, and the share price tripled within a year. My mistake was that I continued to hold it and eventually lost most of my gains.
    Dec 26 01:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KiOR says Columbus facility will produce ~410K gallons of fuel during Q4 [View news story]
    Also missing from this short excerpt is that they warned that financial results for the quarter would be negatively impacted by low RIN prices. So it was essentially an earnings warning buried in a story about higher production volumes.
    Dec 23 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment