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Robert Rapier  

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  • EOG Resources Not Interested In Race To The Bottom [View article]
    I follow only a handful of people here who I feel like really understand this space. Casey is one of them. You aren't going to be right all the time. Nobody is. But he provides extremely valuable insights into the energy sector.
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone would "significantly" boost oil sands emissions, EPA says [View news story]
    The stupidity of the EPA's comments is mind-boggling: "the incremental greenhouse gas emissions from the extraction, transport, refining and use of the 830,000 barrels per day of oils sands crude that could be transported by the proposed Project at full capacity would result in an additional 1.3 to 27.4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTC02-e) per year compared to the reference crudes. To put that in perspective, 27.4 MMTC02 per year is equivalent to the annual greenhouse gas emissions from 5.7 million passenger vehicles or 7.8 coal fired power plants."

    So, not only does their letter presume that if the pipeline isn't built then 830,000 bpd simply won't be consumed (a ludicrous assumption), the EPA and environmental groups then fixate on the highest estimate in a range that spans 1.3 to 27.4 million tons of carbon dioxide per year. That's not an honest, objective assessment.

    In reality, unless demand falls or cheaper sources of oil are developed, that 830,000 bpd will find its way to market via alternate routes that are more carbon-intensive than pipelines, actually increasing the carbon emissions by not building the pipeline. The only real way to avoid the emissions entirely is to reduce demand, in which case the pipeline wouldn't even be needed and we wouldn't have to worry about misguided attempts to stop it.

    Oh, and about that high end estimate of the equivalent of 7.8 coal-fired power plants? There are 1,200 of those being built right now around the world. Note how much airtime that gets relative to Keystone XL. Our priorities are so out of whack.
    Feb 3, 2015. 05:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KiOR files for bankruptcy, but not Mississippi unit [View news story]
    KiOR's bankruptcy this year was one of the 5 predictions I made for 2014. I had people telling me I was wrong right up until last night. But who will invest with Khosla again? Hey, I asked that question after the Range Fuels debacle. The guy is clearly a good salesman, even though he knows nothing about biofuels.
    Nov 10, 2014. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Viper Energy's Venom Less Lethal, But Not Harmless [View article]
    Good article. I wrote one just before the IPO, and we warned people away because we thought the downside risk was took high then. But it's certainly worth some attention now, as are many of the higher risk energy companies.
    Oct 31, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Buy Valero [View article]
    Just to clarify, the crude oil export ban was not overturned. There was a very narrow ruling on condensate exports for two companies. This doesn't have a huge impact on Valero's bottom line, but I think the perception that broader rulings are coming has helped drive Valero's price down.
    Sep 19, 2014. 04:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude-by-rail shipments from western Canada seen tripling in next two years [View news story]
    "Is BSNF not a public company (can't find the ticker), subsumed by Brk?"

    Correct.
    Jun 11, 2014. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Devon Energy: Jim Cramer And Analysts Say Buy [View article]
    Others made the point first, but maybe six months ago Cramer was saying "Avoid Devon. They can't do anything right." I do own Devon, but wonder if that Cramer endorsement isn't a sign that I should cash in my ~30% gain and start looking for another bargain.
    Jun 11, 2014. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude-by-rail shipments from western Canada seen tripling in next two years [View news story]
    "My question also, which railroad, which tanker car mfgrs. will get all this action?"

    American Railcar Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARII) as well. I put a Buy recommendations on ARII in March 2013. The 12 month return on this one is 92%.
    Jun 10, 2014. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude-by-rail shipments from western Canada seen tripling in next two years [View news story]
    "Zacks stock news reports that it costs 5 times more to ship rail than it does pipeline."

    It is more expensive, but if the pipelines are jammed and the differentials are high, they will still ship it. That's why Bakken oil by rail went from near zero to 700,000 bpd in about 3 years.
    Jun 10, 2014. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude-by-rail shipments from western Canada seen tripling in next two years [View news story]
    "Wouldn't the railroad to benefit the most be BNSF?"

    This is definitely true out of the Bakken. Warren Buffett also said a couple of years ago that they can gear up and transport a lot of oil out of the Athabasca as well.
    Jun 10, 2014. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "Recall, 4Q production (~400,000 gallons) arrived slightly below target"

    I want to put this in perspective. This is from an article I wrote in January, and it shows how poorly management performed with respect to the guidance they issued. It shows they were totally out of touch with reality. Here's the link to the article, followed by an excerpt on the relevant bits on KiOR: http://bit.ly/1wCfZ7I

    On May 9, nearly halfway through Q2 of last year, KiOR CEO Fred Cannon stated, “We expect that total fuel production during the second quarter will range between 300,000 and 500,000 gallons, keeping us on track to fall within our projected production range of 3 million to 5 million gallons for 2013.” The actual amount of product shipped for the quarter came in at only 75,000 gallons. When the actual volume was announced, the share price plummeted and investor lawsuits were filed.

    In August Cannon lowered guidance: “We expect our full year production levels will be in the 1 million to 2 million gallon range.” Another statement in November was considerably weaker when he said, “We believe that our full year production levels will exceed 1 million gallons.” The actual production number for the year was reported to be 894,000 gallons — lower than even the reduced guidances and about 7 percent of the stated capacity of the plant. Investors can’t be very confident in future projections given last year’s track record.
    May 30, 2014. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    You continue to post false information. First, in the previous article on this, you wrote: "KIOR imo great buy right now there last Q production numbers were best to date." I don't see a qualifier there. Since the last quarter was Q1, you were mistaken or sloppy with your wording.

    Here, again you wrote "not some old oil just sitting around like ROB posted." I had specifically indicated that the gallons they sold were from the previous quarter's production, and here you are trying to argue they are from the R&D facilities -- even though the 10-Q says they produced 0 gallons in the first quarter. Although you have made multiple false claims, I have yet to see you acknowledge you were wrong about any of them. Still think the stock was at $9 in January 2013? A wrong claim from you, yet your misinformation led to you calling me a liar.

    As far as your repetitive posts that "upgrades continue", I can't help but wonder if you either didn't read the 10-Q, or just don't understand what you read. Here is the particularly relevant bit:

    "While the Company has completed some of these projects and upgrades, it has elected to suspend all optimization work and bring the Columbus facility to a safe, idle state, which the Company believes will enable it to restart the facility upon the achievement of additional research and development milestones and if it is able to raise additional working capital."

    In other words, upgrades do not continue unless they can raise additional capital -- well beyond what Khosla gave them. He provided enough to keep the lights on, not enough to run the plant. The only hope they have is to reel in someone willing to write a much bigger check -- in which case they will run a bit longer (depending on the size of the check).
    May 30, 2014. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "YOu are a liar .47 was not the close when you wrote about the 97 percent loss"

    Just to close the loop on this, I wrote that in the comments on Adam's previous article in the evening of May 23rd. On that day the share price closed at $0.52. Now, why don't you calculate the percentage loss from $16.14 -- the close on the date when I wrote that article in 2011 -- to $0.52? I will help you if you don't own a calculator: It's 96.8%, which most people would simply round to 97%. You, on the other hand, have been demonstrably wrong on several matters of fact here -- such as your assertion that KiOR traded at $9 in January 2013. Or your assertion that the last quarter was their best ever production quarter -- when in fact the plant was idle the entire quarter.

    I won't hold my breath for an apology for your repeated failure to get the most basic information correct -- and then calling me a liar as a result of your failings. Good luck, man. Because you are definitely going to need some luck.
    May 29, 2014. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "not some old oil just sitting around like ROB posted ."

    You are intentionally posting false/misleading information. Just above that section in the 10Q is this: "Our product revenue was $102,000 for the three months ended March 31, 2014 compared to $68,000 for the same period in 2013. Product revenue was primarily generated by cellulosic gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil shipments from products we produced prior to idling our Columbus facility."

    Then they have a table showing 0 gallons produced in 2014. So they sold $102,000 of previously produced fuel, on which they lost $23.5 million. It's one thing to troll, but it's another to post false information to try to manipulate a stock. You might not manage to remain anonymous for long.
    May 29, 2014. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "Robert, you should know better than to feed trolls"

    Going to stop. He isn't just trolling; he is posting false information which I am sure is a violation of Seeking Alpha's guidelines. There are several instances above.
    May 29, 2014. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
81 Comments
71 Likes