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Robert Rubin

 
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  • TJX Should Buy Ross, And So Should You [View article]
    Thanks for the shout out.

    Deal would be nice but...would depend on what price ROST wants (probably not cheap) ... the good news is that it could be financed with a lot of debt as TJX is not levered and ROST has little to no debt ...
    Apr 24 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ross: Invest For Less [View article]
    Thanks for the reply Agnmills. I do not often reply to comments but being that you seem so upset I figured a quick reply worthwhile.

    I was keeping the argument simple re: merchandising. The point was that the ROSS business model is about going to the store and not the online experience. It was not really highlighting exactly where they get their stuff...

    This article does a great job explaining where they (and TJX) get their stuff...

    http://bit.ly/QEArE3

    To your point, I could have been more detailed about where the merchandise comes from, but again, that was not really what I was trying to highlight.

    Thanks very much for your thoughts...thus far...ROST and TJX have been able to grow and find stuff to sell. We'll see if that continues. I believe it will.
    Apr 23 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial Strategy Is The Problem With HollyFrontier (But The Company Can Fix It) [View article]
    Quick replies:

    The $1.20/share dividend is perfectly adequate. The company's yield is superior to that of the R&M sector at that level. Why increase? The cost is already very expensive.

    Let's speak to patience: I am not speaking of 3-months of underperformance. I am speaking to several years now. The market is not buying the special dividend approach. The stock is massively underperforming peers (even on a day like today, there are no buyers for HFC stock...). This pristine balance sheet argument makes no sense. With $1.0 billion of debt and $1.0 billion of cash and equivalents, the HFC enterprise still has a pristine balance sheet! No net debt! And...the argument that the company should be opportunistic...well...I agree...they should be opportunistic now in acquiring their own stock...and a LOT of it...isn't that just as much of an opportunity as anything else? There has been a blow up...HFC's own valuation!

    Finally, MSFT and AAPL are not comparable at all. I am speaking to (effectively) a levered (and cash driven) recapitalization, that would if fully played out take out 25% or more of the outstanding shares. AAPL has repurchased 2%-3% of the company. Very different.

    Here is the bottom line: these special dividends are arbitrary and if you own HFC for the dividends, you are playing Russian Roulette. Management is not obligated to pay them, and has not made a commitment to them whatsoever. If HFC went out and bought a business for $1.0 billion, there goes your dividends. So, to tie it all up, let's let management aggressively buy a business...theirs...and align the overall capitalization with the business and the underlying fundamentals (that the market is not paying for).
    Sep 18 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Action Is Silly: Buy AT&T For Income At A Fair Price [View article]
    No offense and right back at you...from the call transcript...

    "We also continue working with the Department of Labor on a plan that would contribute a preferred interest in
    our AT&T Mobility to fund our pension plans. We continue to be optimistic on the strategy, and expect approval of this
    proposal in 2013."
    Apr 25 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Action Is Silly: Buy AT&T For Income At A Fair Price [View article]
    Huh? Business FCF positive after dividends. They did not need to sell assets to fund the dividend.
    Apr 24 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Action Is Silly: Buy AT&T For Income At A Fair Price [View article]
    Funding pension with preferred in wireless business...not common stock...
    Apr 24 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar Will Show Even More Losses Due To The Global Slowdown [View article]
    Interesting how you linked my first article on CAT, which completely debunked your thesis (as your rationale re: CAT specifically, was weak), and not my second, which recommended taking chips off the table...for reasons specific to CAT...

    http://bit.ly/WOKFD8

    Bottom line is that you are not making a call on CAT. You are making a macro economic call on the Global Economy. Your thesis (as was specific to CAT) was very, very thin. The attempt to rebuke your arguments was to simply highlight that a weak argument is a weak argument, whether proven right or wrong. And to that point, the equipment guys are under pressure and the Global Economic environment looks challenging (you had that right, but substantiated the argument with no facts other than opinion...and investment based upon guessing can be problematic).

    Appreciate the link. Not sure I agree with your argument here either, but I have said enough. Good luck to you!

    Oh...I love DE here too.
    Mar 21 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy HFC On Current Weakness [View article]
    I view the sale of stock by the CEO as irrelevant. You can focus on it if you wish. We'll call our disagreement a wash.

    You are correct. Over the past week, HFC has under performed. That is a fact! Over the past 12-months however, HFC has outperformed VLO, the benchmark refiner (by 1.57%) and the S&P Energy Index (use the XLE, the ETF) by 51.43%. Considering the yield generated by the investment (last year they paid out $2.50 in dividends) and the overall performance, even if HFC hasn't outpaced other refiners, the company still represents a very sound investment in the energy landscape.

    Further, I did not say Buy HFC on weakness on March 7. I said buy HFC on weakness on March 13 as we approached the close...and over the past two days HFC has outpaced peers (which is completely asinine to point out, but 2 days is just as arbitrary as 7...and I am on record for the past 2 in this article...)...

    Oh, and isn't performance backward looking? Isn't the prospective performance of the recommendation more relevant??? FWIW, HFC has a stronger balance sheet than the peer group (and thus, is a more defensive refiner). That should be recognized over time.

    I am amazed by the demands on professional money managers who have important responsibilities. Thanks for taking the time to respond to a lowly amateur posting.
    Mar 15 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy HFC On Current Weakness [View article]
    RIN noise is vastly overdone and not considerable. RINs have come down and will ultimately get passed on to customers.

    Jennings sold less than 25% of his outstanding shares. He still has 318,912 shares. And will likely be awarded more in the future...I give no credence to this as a "terrible" signal. Taking some money off the table after the stock goes 2x makes complete sense from an estate planning perspective and should not be construed as a signal by the CEO of any kind.

    The market is not that short-term oriented. Look at motor gasoline inventories. The summer driving season could prove tight if you are a believer in the improved economy and consumer.
    Mar 14 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy HFC On Current Weakness [View article]
    How can one run a DCF analysis on a business with highly unpredictable earnings? Further, you are guessing on the earnings cycle (peak or not) which is low impact analysis.

    I prefer to measure the scenarios. It provides a better understanding of the risk / reward and gives a greater sense of understanding downside.

    Your conclusion on peak earnings is interesting. Implies the low cycle is right as outlined. We'll see. I like the upside option value to the story assuming your guess on earnings is wrong.
    Mar 13 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Kohls, Expect Great Gains [View article]
    You are speculating on an LBO (read your language). The math doesn't work. The original go private in 1986 was of a very different company and that management is long gone. Current management does not own a ton of this company either. Arguing value is fine. Adding to the speculation with your own commentary minus the facts is not sound.

    I disagree with your thesis completely on this business. Middling department stores are in secular decline. Not sure where KSS fits in, around a struggling middle class paying higher taxes, with cost inflation and little pricing value. We'll see. Good luck.
    Feb 9 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Kohls, Expect Great Gains [View article]
    Prove the LBO using the math please...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 9 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Kohl's LBO Thesis: Does The Math Add Up? [View article]
    Interesting counter arguments...

    1. Just because something is exclusive doesn't mean that someone will want to buy it...sales are not rising...the argument that KSS sells exclusive and you can only buy the exclusives at KSS so they are not subject to AMZN risk is thin...many of their "exclusives" are commodity items (such as clothing) where there are alternatives...

    2. The online business had no place to go but up...growing at 50% is not a relevant statistic...look at online relative to overall sales...don't cite Facebook trends and stats...KSS is a big box department store retailer...not an online retailer...do they get there and build a viable online business...maybe???...but at this point...that is a big leap of faith...

    3. Or that Department Stores are losing share by the middle income customer to cheaper (or more convenient or direct sale) alternatives...your perspective is skewed...you are a KSS fan...be more objective...it is clear that something is flatlining the sales and slowing growth and it might just not be the weakness is their core customer...

    4. They have levered to repurchase shares...I am speaking to a full out going private transaction...there is no reason to conclude that KSS won't use FCF to buy back stock per annum...they probably will...I am simply speaking to the premise of a big go private deal alluded to by the analyst in the aforementioned report...

    5. Interesting on the REIT...why haven't they done it then?
    Feb 4 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAT On A Hot Chinese Roof [View article]
    Another side presented...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 23 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: A Stock For Gains [View article]
    http://bit.ly/HGVAll

    Agree with you.
    Apr 10 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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