Robert Tepper

Value
Robert Tepper
Value
Contributor since: 2012
The new management is going to be a big plus. I wouldn't bet against Elizabeth. Yes, this is her first crack at being a CEO at 58 years old but she has a lot of top management experience with Citrix and she's extremely bright. I find her well spotted for this new role. It is she that tips the scale in favor of me taking a long term position in SPRT.
No dividends to pay, zero debt and fair management pay structures and incentive plans should keep the cash burn to a minimum. Just my impressions but you can count me in, Matt. :)
With today's annouced earnings UBNT is now selling at a p/e of 18.75. Try to find a company with UBNT's growth and profitability that sells that cheap. Good luck. :)
In the after hours UBNT is presently selling at $37.50. With today's annouced earnings of 50 cents per share it equates to UBNT selling at a p/e of 18.75. Try to find a company with UBNT's growth and profitability that sells that cheap. Good luck with that. :)
For those who are interested, today I bought back the UBNT shares that I sold a month or so ago. (as mentioned in the article above) This sell-off makes little to no sense to me. To be able to buy UBNT shares at $35 is a great opportunity, in my opinion.
Good to hear from you Matthew. I look forward to reading a new article from you on UBNT. Mine was more from the perspective of what I think Cisco needs to do and not necessarily a prediction of how Robert Pera might respond. However, if my hypothetical came about -do not dismiss the prospect of him accepting for a few reasons:
1. The fair value offer that I suggested (that has many scratching their head, but I as a shareholder wouldn't take less) is around 10.5 billion. That "bird in the hand" for Pera could prove to be an offer that can't be refused. (to use an old, trite cliché)
2. Yes, the overall philosophies of the two companies contrast mightily but, in my scenario, R.J.P becomes Cisco's new CEO (as Chambers is looking to retire) and thus he could completely revamp the culture over time.
3. The prestige for Pera to be at the controls of one of the legendary companies in Silicon Valley's history not to mention the overall world of business and finance probably wouldn't suck. :)
Again I tend to disagree. While I would never advise anyone to "load the boat" with any stock, I feel that those who buy a bit of UBNT with a long term horizon will be handsomely rewarded. Thanks for the read. :)
Value, similar to beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. Would you tell Zuckerberg that he received great value with his purchase of What'sApp? We'll need hindsight to judge. You seem like a frustrated Cisco shareholder. I understand. You hang on to your shares and I'll be doing the same with my UBNT holdings. Good luck. :)
"Susquehanna has taken notice of P's impressive year-to-date advance of 27.6%, increasing its price target by $5 to $41 this morning. Meanwhile, short interest is relatively high on Pandora Media Inc, as these bearish bets account for 14.5% of the stock's float -- or 19.8 million shares. Should the equity's upward trajectory continue, the shares -- perched at $33.94 -- may end up benefiting from short-covering activity."
Fascinating. Where were all you analysts when I wrote this article with Pandora at $7?
New all time high today. Above $36. Woo hoo!
I don't write at all anymore but you may be able to decipher from my comments that I caught another good one with UBNT. Check out Mathew Dow for articles on that. (He's awesome)
For those interested, I'm only buying one stock this year. EVTC.
Similar to earlier in 2013, a three million share short position has accrued in UBNT over the past month. I don't believe that this is a collection of speculators. Contrarily, I sense that this is one wise guy, hedge fund that has erroneously convinced himself that this company is badly over-valued. I also sense that he has stubbornly pressed his bets as the stock has risen over the past few days. I expect the short position to inflate again upon the next (11/15) short status update.
This does not concern me. I've been through this. Most recently with Pandora. As a long term Ubiquiti shareholder, I welcome it. While it may increase volatility over the next month or so and may be hard on short term investors, I feel quite confident that this will be a losing venture for the short. It will turn out to be a great catalyst for a big increase in the valuation of Ubiquiti over the next 6-12 months when the big short realizes his error and capitulates. Print that in your fine article, Matt. :)
As always, I look forward to your article. I agree that this marketing idea is quite clever and innovative. I bet it came from the very top. Pera seems really creative and savvy.
More strong earnings and UBNT will be opening the Stock Market on 11/18/2013. I imagine we may go higher again. Are you still holding a full position Matthew?
We are up 300% in the 11 months since I wrote this article. Halfway to $56. :)
Summit Partners did, in fact, sell 1.3 million shares at $33 per share yesterday. :)
By my calculations, Summit Partners were entitled to sell 3.3 million shares this quarter. (per SEC rules)
I anticipate they are selling the 750-850k shares today that they didn't sell last week. (at around $33.15)
If I am correct, then this again is a positive for shareholders of any type time horizon.
If I am incorrect and it is Pera that has decided to sell around a half million shares or so, it still would be no biggie except that it might spook a few shareholders a bit. We should find out around this Monday when a filing is made public.
Pera, IMO, has aspirations of being one of the wealthiest people in the world. If this is the case, he'll likely sell only a few shares here and there to cover his life expenses. Ubiquiti just may be the type of long term growth company to get him to that status. The other option for Pera would be the tendency of many other founders and CEO's of successful companies and begin a monthly selling plan. Tim Westergren, for example, who is a founder of Pandora Radio, has had a monthly selling plan in place since his IPO, where he automatically sells 85,000 shares every month. I sense if Pera was inclined to choose the latter path he would have started a selling plan by now. It seems he's choosing the former route. I hope I am correct because like Gates, Buffet, Brin, etc., I believe that he and guys like Musk and Zuckerberg will do great things with their accumulated wealth in the years to come.
Summit Partners were able to sell 2.5 million shares on Wednesday. Thankfully, that is more than I would have assumed on a 3 million volume day. With just 6 million shares left and a less than a 7% stake, (an increased float) I believe, you can render Summit of virtually no consequence going forward as it pertains to their influence on the UBNT pps.
Btw, I suspect that Summit's net holdings in Ubiquiti is less than the 6 million share figure. The sizable short position in UBNT, while scaled down over the past few months, still, IMO, predominantly belongs to Summit as a long term hedge against their holdings.
Keep up the good work Matthew. :)
Wow, an amazing and quick ride Matthew. Pretty fun, huh? UBNT clearly seems overbought on a near term basis as it touched $37 today. Unlike me, I know you are a value investor so I was wondering if you are going to or already have sold your shares. Although it seems properly valued at this level based on the current earnings report, I haven't sold nor do I have plans to sell any of my shares. I feel that if you unload a position in a company like Ubiquiti, you spend the coming months and years searching for another one like it only to become frustrated by such a futile task.
Well crafted article, as always, Matt.
I am as positive on UBNT, for the long haul, as you seem to be and more. They are one of a very small number of companies that I am invested in. Good luck to us. :)
I'm looking forward to it. :)
Good job, Matt. Friday should be a great day for us longs. You can count on me not selling any of mine. :)
Up 153% in six months. Not too shabby. ;)
Congrats to all longs and anyone who may have gone with my opinion. :)
I agree that a good case could be made that this is a positive for long term investors. Summit Partners, being "IPO specialists" were going to inevitably exit their position. I'd rather they do it this way then try to unload their shares into typical low volume trading. Similarly, institutions that may have had UBNT on their radar now have a better vehicle in which to get in and buy.
Pera is making his first sale. It's pretty small. He's entitled. He's done a great job with this company. It shouldn't be seen in anyway negative. Shrewd long term investors should realize that it is a better option than to keep issuing special dividends. Keep the money within the company to grow through R&D, etc.
By the way Matthew, I appreciate the thoughtful way you research and present your information. You're actually one of the only people I follow on S.A.
Just curious, does today's news of the UBNT secondary fundamentally change any of your thoughts or metrics that you've laid out in this article?
It's non dilutive. It does increase the float by almost 100%. I'm betting that institutions will be looking to swallow these shares up pretty quickly.
In the long run it's a non-event. In the short run, I believe, it presents a pretty nice opportunity to get into a low volume traded growth company that was nearly impossible to buy with such a small float.
or not. :)
Cool. Keep in mind, I believe you should never buy a stock merely on someone's recommendation. Even mine. :)
Hey there Milachi,
I just today, had a SA article published on the identity of the other stock. Hope you get an opportunity to read it. :)
Understood.
Hey, don't lose sight of the fact that you went to back to back AFC Championship games over the past few years...nothing to sneeze at. :)
Ed,
I'm assuming you sat down with Brad Cooke? Brad Smith is a good backup QB in the NFL but I'm not sure how much he knows about silver mining. :)
Thank you for taking the time, Bost. :)
I love how you suggest that I don't know what I'm talking about and then basically agree with most that I've written.
We will disagree on the other mid-tier silver miners. I don't think they are nearly in EXK's league. AG's Neumeyer is a bit too "riverboat" for me and him holding all that PSLV make me wonder if he kowtows to Sprott a bit too much. Tahoe and Mag while they may be promising have much to prove. Too many shares in the AUNFF float for me to get excited about a penny pink sheeter.
Time will tell.
Good luck to you and thanks for the read. :)