Robert Wagner

Research analyst, cfa, portfolio strategy, gold
Robert Wagner
Research analyst, CFA, portfolio strategy, gold
Contributor since: 2013
Company: Self
"Either you do not understand basic economics, or you pretend not to. The reason gold and silver fluctuate wildly is because they are not currently used as money. One thing we can predict about fiat currencies - they continue to lose value as the creators (central banks and governments) print more of them.

You can't print gold or silver. You can't steal wealth from hard money. And this is why politicians are central banks are adamant about stopping the return to gold and silver."
1) Yes, you can't print Gold and Silver, but you can surely dig it out of the ground.
2) Making Gold and Silver a currency fixes it price, the Government Fixes that price. To print money the Government simply devalues the gold.
3) Major gold producers would become the world's Federal Reserve.
<b>"It works great right now because it's a hedge/insurance on government currency, so it still acts like money in that way</b>
Gold has fallen from near $2,000 to below $1,100. Inflation hasn't change over that time, and the $US has strengthened. We are in a near deflationary economic environment. Gold and Silver are awful hedges.
More convinced that it is pure nonsense. The political hyperbole continues regardless of the facts and data pretty much proving this is a political movement, not a valid scientific theory.
1) The IPCC models have all failed to accurately forecast the temperature of the earth.
2) Satellite measurements show no warming over the past 18+ years.
3) NOAA is being investigated for manipulating the data.
4) The oceans are warming. There is no way for atmospheric CO2 to warm the oceans. CO2 absorbs and emits at 13 to 18 microns. Those wavelengths don't penetrate the oceans, only visible light does.
5) There is no mechanism by which CO2 increased before temperature to "force" the earth out of an ice age.
6) There is no mechanism by which CO2 would decrease before temperature to "force" the earth back into an ice age.
7) The statistical variation of the past 50 and 150 years in no different than the previous 14,000 years of the Holocene.
8) This recent El Nino failed to drive temperatures above the 1998 peak.
9) There is no mechanism by which CO2 could cause record day time temperatures, CO2 is transparent to visible light. Increasing daytime temperatures is proof of a warming cause other than CO2.
10) Never in the history of the earth has the climate not been changing. Climate change in the norm, just look at Al Gore's chart. It looks like a saw blade.
11) The book <u>A Disgrace to his Profession</u> highlight many of the scientific anomalies and practices unique to the field of Climate "Science." I've pointed them out as well. I never spoke to the author of the book, yet we identified the same fraudulent practices.
12) The Hockey Stick will never be independently replicated. Techniques like Mike's Nature Trick to Hide the Decline are unique to the biased researchers seeking to reach a predetermined answer. The archaeological and historical record totally contradict the Climate Alarmists main piece of evidence.
13) Nothing man has done has altered the trend of CO2, nothing man can do will alter the trend in CO2, even the IPCC states that. The benefit of the proposed policies that will cost trillions will have a negligible impact on the climate. It is far more intelligent to spend the money to prepare and adapt instead of simply redistributing money and regulating industry.
14) Astrophysicists are predicting a 30 year cooling period. They follow real scientific practices.
"If you are saying that the oceans are responsible for the long term warming of the atmosphere, from where is the "fuel" for these "gas burners" coming? "
Visible light warms the oceans. IR between 13 and 18 Microns doesn't warm H2O. The fact that the oceans are warming is a smoking gun that the sun is the cause of the warming.
"Robert said; "The fact that $0.00 of deposits were lost in an FDIC insured bank."
Simply not true Robert. Many who had money in banks over the amount of $250,000 did lose their money. "
What evidence do you have of that? It is true I should have used the wording "insured account," not bank, but I am not aware of any bank account that wasn't honored.
"The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announces a new program—the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program—to strengthen confidence and encourage liquidity in the banking system by guaranteeing newly issued senior unsecured debt of banks, thrifts, and certain holding companies, and by providing full coverage of non-interest bearing deposit transaction accounts, regardless of dollar amount."
<blockquote>You obviously have no understanding of basic economics, or you pretend not to. The reason that gold and silver fluctuate wildly is because they are not currently used as money. </blockquote>
OK, so we take an ounce of gold and stamp $50 on it. So what? Gold now has a fixed price. How is that different from a $50 bill? Other than the $50 bill is easier to transact with and carry. Also, how do you stop a bank run under a gold standard? Answer: You don't, gold in inelastic and a bank run is almost guaranteed to result in the collapse of your bank and loss of your deposits.
With the price of commodities falling Nations that hold gold as a reserve are watching their bank reserves collapse. That may force them to sell, which would further depress the price of gold. Russia holds a lot of gold as does China, and they have to maintain social stability as unemployment increases. Central banks holding gold is a double edged sword, and the cycle is now on the back swing.
"Please don't deny that you're a climate change denialist."
Here is a chart of 800,000 years of climate. Never in the entire history of the earth has climate not been changing. Climate change is the norm. It would be abnormal for the climate not to be changing.
"I do love how climate denialists will twist anyone's words to suit themselves. Gates wants more action, not less. "
1) Gates doesn't want Wind and Solar. He actually has invested in a few interesting companies that produce alternative fuels.
2) "Climate Denialist?" The climate is always changing, it was changing long before man and it will continue to change long after man. Mankind hasn't had to survive an ice age yet. When one hits, we won't be relying on Wind and Solar. We will need the coal and nuclear plants that we aren't building.
3) There are plenty of ice core data sets for you to analyze. Take some time to analyze the data and you will see that a) there was a Roman warming period b) there was a medieval warming period c) we are coming out of the little ice age and d) there is absolutely nothing statistically significant about the past 50 and 150 years of temperature variation. Absolutely nothing. We are well of the highs of the past 12,000 years in temperature.
"Robert is losing his ISIS-aligned war against our civilization. More renewable energy was added in 2013 for electricity generation than all fossil fuels combined."
Some of us choose to live in the world of reality.
Bill Gates argues this issue best.
Bill Gates Dismisses Solar And Wind Energy, “Can’t Do The Job” …Cost “Beyond Astronomical”! - See more at:
Obama’s Renewable-Energy Fantasy
Bill Gates recently noted that the cost of decarbonization using today’s technology is ‘beyond astronomical.’
More people are jumping on the strong $ weak gold bandwagon.
This analysis is as valid today as when it was written:
Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770
My bet is we reach $770/oz before we reach $10,000. Now that all the monetary issues are getting settled, rates are headed higher and the economy is showing signs or recovery, the reason for holding gold and silver no longer exist.
"With no ray of light showing at the end of the tunnel, investors in this company should be extraordinarily careful moving forward."
I was going to make a similar comment. Insiders have been really increasing their holdings in this stock.
3 Mo. 12 Mo.
# of Open Market Buys 28 47
# of Sells 0 1
Total Insider Trades 28 48
Read more:
3 Mo. 12 Mo.
# of Shares Bought 206,614 759,468
# of Shares Sold 0 23,500
Total Shares Traded 206,614 782,968
Net Activity 206,614 735,968
Read more:
Insider Relation Last Date ▼ Transaction Type OwnerType Shares Traded Last Price Shares Held
ANDERSON DAVID G. Officer 06/09/2015 Buy direct 2,000 4.9300 33,075
FUNDAMENTAL GLOBAL INVESTORS, LLC Director 06/08/2015 Buy indirect 3,903 4.9100 1,388,407
CERMINARA KYLE Director 06/05/2015 Buy direct 5,000 4.9000 29,984
FUNDAMENTAL GLOBAL INVESTORS, LLC Director 06/05/2015 Buy indirect 20,300 4.8800 1,384,504
FUNDAMENTAL GLOBAL INVESTORS, LLC Director 06/04/2015 Buy indirect 6,304 4.8400 1,364,204
CERMINARA KYLE Director 05/28/2015 Buy direct 18,333 4.7000 24,984
Read more:
Wonderful post, and it highlights what every Money and Banking Economic Book will tell you. What I find so fascinating is that those concepts are very very very well known, the history of the mid-to-Late 1800's and pre-Fed 1900's is very well known, so well in fact Hayek wrote his Austrian Business Cycle Theory based upon it. The Supporters of the ABCT who know this history also are the main supporters of the Bitcoin. It seems people are more interested in being part of a movement than paying attention to reality.
I've said this a million times...and it looks like the experts agree. BTW, if anyone can create a highly complex forecast model that is accurate they won't be working at some university, they will be working on Wall Street.
'The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global mean temperature [changes] cannot be forecast because climate is too complex. They nevertheless rely on complex computer modelling to represent their assumptions about how the climate works. The outputs of such models are called “scenarios.” In effect, the IPCC tells stories, illustrated with computer graphics, about what would happen if their assumptions were correct.'
This week’s Conversation that Matters features Freeman Dyson a professor emeritus of the Institute for Advanced Study who says models do a good job of helping us understand climate but they do a very poor job of predicting it.

Prominent physicist Freeman Dyson: ‘It would be crazy to try to reduce CO2′ – ‘Earth is growing greener as a result of carbon dioxide’
Dyson: 'There certainly is an enormous religion in which there are lots of true believers who think that climate change is evil and that we're going to run into big catastrophes if we don't do something drastic. That's a sort of belief system which exists...I don't understand it and I don't pretend to understand their motives.'
Ouch, this just hurts. GM/Washington basically gave the Hummer to China. Now we are left with a "green" economy that is bankrupting the Nation, and China is producing many profitable products for export to the US market. We should have sold China Solindra and kept the Hummer.
Financial terms were not disclosed, although a person briefed on the deal said the sale price was around $150 million. The person did not want to be identified because the terms were being kept private. GM's bankruptcy filing last summer said that the brand with military roots could bring in $500 million or more.
Another much hyped tax payer funded green "solution" bites the least for 2015. GM dropped the great selling Hummer and focused on the Volt. China now has a great future with the Hummer, and GM is stuck with the Volt. Bravo Washington, keep helping out the competition.
Say goodbye to the Chevy Volt. For now. The much ballyhooed (by Chevy) hybrid has been in production since December of 2011, and despite popularity among owners, never really caught on with consumers. GM (GM) announced today it will halt production of the 2015 model and work to clear out inventory.
Germany’s Leading Daily Calls For An End To Green Energy Subsidies! Calls Green Promises “A Fairy Tale”
By P Gosselin on 3. April 2015
Germany’s leading daily in terms of circulation Bild recently featured an op-ed piece that harshly criticizes Germany’s Energiewende (transisition to renewable energies).
Clearly the Energiewende is not even coming close to living up to what is was originally billed to deliver. Despite adding more than 70 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity that will cost consumers some $200 billion, German CO2 emissions have not decreased to speak of. Coal-fired power has actually risen.
In summary German electricity prices have skyrocketed and poor consumers are being hit hard. Energy-intensive industries are off-shoring operations – and jobs!
- See more at:
Nice reference for tracking this "science."
129 Climate Scandals
no matter what the outcome, the solution is identical, tax carbon producers. That is how you know this isn't a real "science" and is mostly a political movement to redistribute wealth. BTW, Amazon Prime has a real good free documentary titled "Cool It" which takes a common sense economic look at global warming.
No "Science" in the history of man has such a poor track record as these "climate scientists" and yet they are getting the bulk of the focus from the IPCC and Federal Government. When facts and data don't matter, you know it isn't a real "science."
45 Years Since Top Scientists Warned That Fossil Fuels Would Cause A New Ice Age
I've pointed out countless times that the "control" for the AGW theory would be the extreme S Pole because all the H2O has been removed from the air, leaving only very dry air with CO2 and the other non-H2O GHGs, and the temperatures are closer to the 15micrometers IR that CO2 absorbs. When the influence of H2O is removed, and the temperature change is only due to CO2 as a GHG, the temperatures in Antarctica have actually been FALLING with the increase in CO2. Here is an article that discusses that fact. You can also look up the temperature graph of the S Pole station.
"Where temperatures are taken, it shows that the mean Antarctic temperature has actually fallen throughout the last 60 years, and in some Antarctic valleys, more damage is being caused by temperature decreases of up to 2°C. Antarctica is also exiting its summer season as the Northern Hemisphere gears up for spring. Because the Great Lakes are still mostly frozen one week into spring, the United States look more like Antarctica from space."
S Pole Temperature Graph:
With a century of cold weather ahead, the public won’t buy that cold weather is caused by global warming
The news was all gloom for global warming doomsayers this week — a double whammy of (for them) incomprehensible findings that proves (to them) that the world is either mad or in denial.
The first whammy came via Gallup, in a comprehensive study of American attitudes to the environment in general and global warming in particular. Despite the obvious-as-the-nose-on... (to them) environmental calamities that are at this very moment overwhelming the planet, only 9% of the public rate the overall quality of the environment as poor. Inexplicably, 50% rate the environment as excellent or good — the highest degree of satisfaction with the state of the environment that Gallup has recorded since it began asking this question in 2001.
To the Bitter End
Accusing scientists of venal motives when they raise questions about climate has come to be what passes for scientific debate. Unlike the GWPF critique, this is not science at all. Al Gore recently renewed calls for climate deniers (as they are pejoratively called by the dogmatists) to be punished. This follows brazen political-style attacks on scientists because of their views on climate. In particular there has been an aggressive assault questioning our ethics, morality, competence, and even sanity. It has been amazingly coordinated, coming simultaneously from a number of fronts: activists, Congress, Hollywood, and even some psychologists.
This entire assault could not be more anti-scientific. The protagonists are political interlopers in science who do not understand or respect the nature of scientific truths and how they are discovered, let alone how they are justified. One of the greatest lessons from the history of science is that humans don’t only get things wrong, but they stubbornly hang on to the stupidest of ideas to the bitter end. I do not absolve myself from this; it is my legacy as much as yours.
The Followers of Eris
What the dogmatists understand well is eristic argument, after Eris the Greek goddess of discord and chaos. Eristic tactics come to us from the ancient Greek sophists. Eristic methods manifest themselves today in the works of Saul Alinsky. As the goddess’s qualities suggest, they are inherently divisive. The objective is victory, not truth.
BTW, this is why Global Warming, or lack thereof, is important to investors.
William Herschel, who two centuries ago noticed an inverse correlation between wheat prices on Earth and the number of sunspots generated by the Sun’s cycles. (Hint: the more energy from the Sun that Earth gets, the more warmth Earth receives, the more abundant the wheat crops, the lower the price of wheat; the less energy from the Sun, the less warmth, the more wheat crop failures, the higher the wheat price.)
BTW, I've pointed this out thousands of times in my articles and comments. Finally someone is putting it in print so that is can be referenced. This BTW is why CO2 FOLLOWS temperature in the ice core data. Warmists can deny the basic physics/chemisty all they what, but they will never be able to repeal Henry's Law to make their theory a reality.
Greenhouse gases — CO2 and water vapour — play a role in this drama but the gases come not from SUVs and other man-made activities but from the oceans, which contain 50 times as much CO2 as the atmosphere. As the oceans warm or cool because of the Sun, they release or absorb these gases, whose greenhouse effect is secondary and relatively minor.
This is Russia's Jim Hansen. Clearly the Russians are light years ahead of America in understanding this issue. Our NASA is promoting Junk Science based on statistically rejected climate models, while Russia has models that are dead on that forecast the exact opposite of NASA. The Russians have data and models that accurately represent reality, NASA doesn't. Just who wins that argument in the long run? Clearly not the US, NASA and the warmists.
With a century of cold weather ahead, the public won’t buy that cold weather is caused by global warming
Enter Habibullo Abdussamatov of the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the scientist who heads Russia’s space research laboratory and its global warming research using data collected by the International Space Station. Unlike other scientists in the global warming field who have had to continually backtrack, sidestep and spin erroneous findings when their models proved embarrassingly wrong, Abdussamatov’s studies over the last decade have stayed on course, in keeping with the actual temperature readings that ultimately provide a true measure of climate change.
Lawrence Solomon: Global warming doomsayers take note: Earth’s 19th Little Ice Age has begun
With a century of cold weather ahead, the public won’t buy that cold weather is caused by global warming
The news was all gloom for global warming doomsayers this week — a double whammy of (for them) incomprehensible findings that proves (to them) that the world is either mad or in denial.
The first whammy came via Gallup, in a comprehensive study of American attitudes to the environment in general and global warming in particular. Despite the obvious-as-the-nose-on... (to them) environmental calamities that are at this very moment overwhelming the planet, only 9% of the public rate the overall quality of the environment as poor. Inexplicably, 50% rate the environment as excellent or good — the highest degree of satisfaction with the state of the environment that Gallup has recorded since it began asking this question in 2001.
But the gloom for the doomsayers was only beginning. When Americans do worry about the environment, they worry “a great deal” about the quality of their drinking water, followed by pollution of rivers and lakes. They don’t worry a great deal about global warming, which ranks dead last on Gallup’s list of worries. Fewer than one-third of Americans lose sleep over global warming, fewer than express concern over air pollution, fewer than get stressed over environmental issues that haven’t dominated the news in decades, such as the extinction of plants and animals and the loss of tropical rain forests.
Atmospheric physicist Dr. Murry Salby: Man-made CO2 could only cause warming of 'a few tenths of a degree, if at all'
A recent seminar presentation by atmospheric physicist & professor Murry Salby in Germany strikes another huge blow to climate alarm, demonstrating:
The man-made share of CO2 in the atmosphere is only a maximum of 30% (0-30%). The remainder is related to temperature changes, natural outgassing from the oceans, and to humidity.
The residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is only 4-7 years, not hundreds of years as falsely claimed by the IPCC Bern model.
Man-made CO2 emissions increased a whopping 350% faster since 2002, yet the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere remained steady at ~2.1 ppm/yr, a "strong indication that anthropogenic emissions can not have a significant or even dominant share."
His conclusion: "Because of the saturation effect in the energy absorption of CO2 molecules with increasing concentration and short residence time, the further increase in temperature could be therefore only at most a few tenths of a degree, if at all. However, the known fossil reserves would be exhausted by then."
You just have to love this "Settled Science."
This in turn strengthens the idea that cosmic ray variations through solar activity affect the climate. In this picture, solar activity increase is responsible for about half of the twentieth-century global warming through a reduction of the cosmic ray flux, leaving less to be explained by anthropogenic activity. Also, in this picture, climate sensitivity is on the low side (perhaps 1 to 1.5°C increase per CO2 doubling, compared with the 1.5 to 4.5°C range advocated by the IPCC), implying that the future is not as dire as often prophesied.