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Robert Wagner  

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  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    I would not want to be long gold. Everything I've written about is coming true...and then some. Here is just the latest video.

    And another:
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group Outperforms Expectations [View article]
    Here are some details on the odds of the BTC passing in the Lame Duck:

    Under this scenario, the Senate Republican leadership would prefer to pass an omnibus spending bill or a yearlong stopgap funding measure that would keep the federal government operating until the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30.

    It could also have implications for a package extending a variety of expired tax provisions. Some House Republicans would like to delay action on the so-called tax extenders package to 2015 in the hope that a Congress under unified GOP control could make some of the fixes permanent.

    This, however, would have to be done immediately at the start of the new session if the fixes were to apply to 2014. Tax returns must be filed by mid-April.

    House Republicans are seeking to extend some expired provisions, like the credit for business research, indefinitely.

    Another Source:

    The other strong push to do tax extenders in lame duck is that Republicans — with a good election result and control of both houses – don’t want to start the first day in a new Congress eating leftovers (“new food, new food” as we would say growing up). There is understandably a push to clear the decks in lame duck and start with a clean slate for an ambitious agenda
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group Outperforms Expectations [View article]
    I wouldn't bet against the BTC passing, as mentioned it typically has bipartisan support, and a 100% track record of getting reinstated. Right now as mentioned in the conference call the markets are discounting the reinstatement of the tax credit. If it doesn't get reinstated the smaller companies will likely go bankrupt, and RIN prices will likely adjust upward to reflect the absence of the tax credit going forward. One other major issue on the horizon not mentioned is the EPA's RVO. Anything above the current 1.2 billion gallons should be a big positive because current production is on track to reach 1.2 billion plus the additional 20% allowed for carry over. Any boost would effectively create a shortage of RINs going into 2015. Lastly, the last time the BTC get reinstated REGI kept about $0.35/gallon, with the Geismar fuel being produced REGI is blending it with their biodiesel making REGI the blender. I believe that will allow them to keep the full $1.00 of the tax credit for each gallon of blended fuel they sell. I know SYNM used to keep 100% of the tax credit when they were producing fuel. REGI by blending it with their own biodiesel will be able to stretch the benefits to a greater number of gallons.
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    "ill watch it, but i can assure you that mining will decrease or even halt if gold values drop to $1,000.00 or under"

    Mining is extremely capital intensive, so most mining companies have huge fixed cost per unit of production. That means gold can go well below the average cost of production and the miners will still produce. Mining is just like the airlines, and they will keep producing as long as they can keep making payments towards their fixed costs. Only when the price of gold falls below its variable production cost will the miners cut production.
    Nov 6, 2014. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    The bandwagon for much lower gold just keeps picking up new riders:

    Don’t Catch a Falling Knife! ABN Sees Gold at $800 Next Year

    The selloff in gold is set to deepen as the dollar will probably extend gains, according to ABN Amro NV, which forecast that the precious metal may end this year at $1,100 an ounce and finish 2015 at $800.

    "Don't try to catch a falling knife," analyst Georgette Boele wrote in an e-mailed report received today. "The U.S. dollar rally has further to run, especially if the Fed turns more hawkish this year."
    Nov 6, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    More people are coming around to a much lower price of gold.

    The calculated target is a little below the long-term historical support and resistance level near $980. This suggests there is a high probability that gold will fall to around $980 before any new consolidation pattern develops.

    Why are gold and silver going out of fashion with investors? It's simple: The "end-of-the-world trade" is no longer popular.
    Nov 6, 2014. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GOP Hearings On Climate Change May Threaten Entire Green Economy [View article]
    Uh, let's think about that one. First you call a skeptic, basically the foundation of science, a denier. They you proceed to attack "deniers" for not relying on science to support their legitimate skepticism. Facts are the science and data simply doesn't support the AGW theory anymore than the data supported the coming ice age, or the Piltdown man. Simple statistical analysis of ice core proves that the recent 50 and 100 years of temperature variation is well within the norm of the past 12,000 years. Feel free to prove me wrong, but a simple analysis of Al Gore's chart will pretty much prove my point.
    Nov 4, 2014. 06:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GOP Hearings On Climate Change May Threaten Entire Green Economy [View article]
    BTW, as I write this the EPA has yet to release the RVO for 2014. That will leave less than 2 months for the entire industry to make any needed changes. That kind of irresponsibility alone should be enough to the Republicans to prove the EPA incompetent and politically biased beyond repair. My bet is shortly after the election the EPA will release their final rule. Last year it was released in August, but last year wasn't an election year. The other thing awaiting the election is the decision on the tax extenders. I wouldn't be surprised if this didn't get settled until late in the year. Last time is was passed it was into the New Year. Anyway, the political nature of the Green Economy will likely be its downfall. It will rise and fall with the fortunes of the democrats, many of whom will be sitting home this election because the democrats have vowed to destroy the industry that employs them. Only the democrats would view destroying the employer base of the industrial unions as a good strategy, but then again, when you own a allegiance to a command and control centralized economic policy, some people have to get hurt, even if they are your own. Maybe the people that used to support the democrats will finally understand why a government that can give you everything also has the power to take it away isn't such a good thing.
    Nov 2, 2014. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GOP Hearings On Climate Change May Threaten Entire Green Economy [View article]
    This upcoming election will likely have a large impact upon the "Green Economy," or more accurately the "Green lack of an economy." So far with a Democratically controlled agenda a whole lot of garbage has been covered up. Now with the likely Republican takeover of the Senate all bets are off, and the investigations are sure to start. The one thing that is consistent about the "climate science" it that since the Hockey Shtick fiasco the researchers have been very very reluctant to release data supporting their conclusions. This is soviet style science at its best. My favorite one is how the climategate emails expose that the "scientists" know that the Mt Killimanjaro glacier isn't melting, and yet they keep promoting the nonsense. Same with the Polar Bears. The polar bear research is in the news today:

    Polar bear biologists doing mark-recapture work in Hudson Bay may have misled the world
    Posted on November 2, 2014 | Comments Off

    What exactly are Western Hudson Bay (WHB) polar bear researchers hiding? Since 2004, research on the body condition and cub production of Western Hudson Bay (WHB) polar bears has been carried out but none of the results of these mark-recapture studies have been made public.

    The recent WH claims about the Polar Vortex is also making the news.

    Lawsuit: White House Won’t Show Evidence To Back Up ‘Polar Vortex’ Claims

    I've looked at the data supporting many of these claims and it is understandable why they won't release the data. The data point to different conclusions.

    BTW, Michael Mann is the ring leader of this huge fraud, and he too is making the news. When you read this, keep telling yourself that this guy is considered a credible "scientist" is the field of climate "science."

    Michael Mann's UCLA Schtick
    Nov 2, 2014. 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    This video does a technical analysis of Gold and puts the bottom at $700.

    That video is worth watching and shows just how bad of an investment gold is right now, and the path of least resistance is down, down in a big way.
    Nov 2, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors' Guide To El Nino, Climate Change And Summer Weather Forecast [View article]
    More Glacier Studies Confirm Roman And Medieval Warm Periods Were Just As Warm As Today - See more at:
    Oct 31, 2014. 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group Beat Expectations... As Expected [View article]
    REGI should easily beat current estimates for Q3. Margins have been positive all quarter and estimates are for a loss. More importantly, the news out today is that REGI is blending the Geismar ULSD with their biodiesel. I have a call into IR to verify that that will qualify them as the "blender" allowing them to keep 100% of the "blenders'" tax credit. If that is the case REGI will have a huge incentive to expand and build new plants like Gesimar. That would add $0.50/gal + to the margins. I would also listen to the conference call to see if they address this issue.
    Oct 31, 2014. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Don't Own Gold [View article]
    "In my opinion, gold is being supported by pillars of sand, and the tide is coming in."

    The tide is just starting to come in, rates haven't even begun to increase yet. I have a price target of $770 on gold as a bottom, which will most likely turn out to be a high estimate. Gold is collapsing for all the right reasons, and market/economic factors are all turning against gold. The pillars of sand are getting washed away, and as they do, gold will follow their collapse.
    Oct 31, 2014. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Every day brings us closer and closer to this target price of $770, which most likely will be a high estimate for the actual bottom. Interest rates haven't even begun to increase and gold is collapsing. Once the rates really do start increasing gold will be crushed. Get ready for more downside to gold, the collapse is just starting.
    Oct 31, 2014. 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Insurance has a fixed payout, and doesn't fluctuate. A TIP is insurance, gold isn't even close. If you fear inflation buy a TIP, not gold. If you fear financial collapse buy a government bond or real estate. Gold is resting on $1,200 as I write this, and is almost certain to break it if not this time, in the near future. All trends are working against gold, and the reasons to hold gold never really existed at all, and were based upon pure hype.
    Oct 30, 2014. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment