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Robert Wagner  

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  • Gold Is A Slam Dunk Sell [View article]
    LOL, thanks, I'll get that corrected. FYI, it is You're not your, but who's keeping track?
    Oct 9, 2013. 02:30 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GOP Hearings On Climate Change May Threaten Entire Green Economy [View article]
    Actually Jake, the way to phrase it is do you believe the data or do you 99% of the scientists from a field that was calling for an ice age just a few decades ago and admit to statistical fraud in emails? Basically do you believe the "scientists" or your lying eyes? Simply look at the data, the AGW theory is being proven wrong on every front.
    Aug 29, 2013. 03:10 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
    At the firm I used to work at we did the same. I remember discussing it as early as 2005 or 6. It wasn't too difficult to figure out that when the majority of mortgages were ARMs, and rates were likely to go higher, that problems would be created. What surprised me about it was the depth of the crisis. I knew it was going to be bad, but not as bad as it turned out to be.
    Jun 13, 2013. 10:04 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Going forward however the printing presses will be in reverse. QE has to be taken back out of the market. Yes, the printing presses will first be slowed, but eventually they will be reversed. Once a solid recovery is underway, that money will be taken back out of circulation.
    Feb 23, 2014. 12:00 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    "I disagree with the author's logic. Using the same logic the value of the USD would be worth less then the 6 cents it costs to produce!"

    Gold is a commodity whose value is based upon supply and demand, the US Dollar is a currency and a $1 bill is worth $1 because the markets accept it as its currency and the US Gov't says it is worth $1. The cost of producing a fiat currency is irrelevant to its value. Your logic will result in some very poor investment decisions.
    Feb 24, 2014. 08:39 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone Represents A Possible Game Changing Event For Economy And Markets [View article]
    "People move to Florida to get away from the cold, not vice versa. [...] Climate "science" belongs in the political science department, not in any real science department. Want proof? Just step outside. This is quite possibly the most idiotic assertion I have ever encountered on SA."

    Societies thrive in warming interglacial periods, they die during ice ages. Life needs warmth. We haven't had warming for over 10 years and almost 100% of IPCC models vastly overestimated current temperatures. 100% error on on side is proof of a bias, not science. CO2 traps heat, we don't have warming, so how is CO2 causing "climate change?" What is the mechanism? How does trapping hear result in global cooling? It doesn't. BTW, I'm not the one running around blaming every tornado, hurricane, earthquake and volcano eruption on global warming and climate change, that is Al Gore and John Kerry. Remember how Rita and Katrina were due to global warming, and then we went on a decade pause of hurricanes to the pause was blamed on global warming?

    You might want to do your research on this topic.
    Feb 18, 2014. 10:06 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Warming And Its Impact On Energy Stocks [View article]
    What evidence do you have global warming is real? The fact that we no longer have 1 mile of ice above our heads? That's because we are in an interglacial period, it has been warming for the last 12,000 years. What evidence do you have man is causing it? Theories, simple theories. How have those "theories" done when tested? Awful, almost 100% of IPCC climate models overestimated temperatures. Almost 100% in the world of science is evidence of a bias, not man made global warming. Facts are we haven't had warming for over a decade, and there is no mechanism by which CO2 can caused climate change other than through the green house gas effect. If global warming isn't causing climate change, that what is? It certainly isn't CO2.
    Feb 18, 2014. 09:51 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Interest Rate Risk And Duration Of A Bond [View article]
    The title of the article is "UNDERSTANDING Interest Rate Risk and Duration," it is an educational not forecasting piece. That is why I did the spreadsheet in incremental steps so readers can make their own estimates and forecasts. I in no way want to imply that I think interest rates are going to 10%. This is simply an educational piece. If you think interest rate are going to 5%, you can look at the table to see what happens, that is the purpose of this article. I'm not trying to forecast interest rates.
    Mar 26, 2013. 10:48 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors' Guide To El Nino, Climate Change And Summer Weather Forecast [View article]
    "This article is an appalling exhibition of pseudo-science. "

    Quoting "experts" is pseudo-science, I showed you the data backing that "science." Please refute what I've said. I know what the "scientists" say, I showed you how awful their models are. You are siding with the people with the awful models. Their models prove they are wrong. Please tell the readers where I am wrong.
    Mar 14, 2014. 05:29 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    Very well written and thorough article. I write a lot about REGI but are usually more single topic issues. I'm sure I'll be linking to this article in the future for people that need more background on the company and other details. Additionally, while this is an extremely bullish article, the author avoided what I consider REGI's greatest potential, that being going after the cellulosic RINs. That industry doesn't even really exist, but it makes up the vast majority of the RFS2 going forward. The recent acquisitions by REGI will allow then to pursue cellulosic RINs. Also thanks for providing confirmation to my belief that the BTC was a redundant subsidy and more a nuisance than a benefit, especially for REGI. Reading your article made me think REGI may start looking at KiOR as a possible purchase, and would further open the door to cellulosic. Lastly, part of the reason the D6 RINs, and in turn D4 RINs are so high is that there wasn't an oversupply produced in 2013. The RVO was basically bet, as opposed to reaching the allowed 120%. What that has done in create a shortage of 2013 D6 RINs because obligated parties are trying to bring some 2013 D6 RINs into 2014 as insurance against a possible "blend wall." Also, while the RVO for 2014 did increase from 2013 for biodiesel, it is still below the 2013 level. My understanding is 1.7 billion gallons in the value to watch for with the final EPA RVO for biodiesel. Once again, thanks a million for writing such an outstanding article. Keep up the great work.
    Mar 13, 2014. 08:58 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group: Undervalued And Ready To Break Out [View article]
    REGI is most likely going to have a strong 2nd half of the year for various reason, none of them quantitative or technical.
    1) The entire fate of this company depends on the margins they get for their biodiesel. Margins have been improving, and even high cost soybean oil now shows a positive margin.
    2) Production has been relatively lite this year, so the RINs look to be on course to barely meeting the 1.2 billion gallon EPA RVO. In reality that translates into a 20% underproduction. The underproduction of D6 RINs in 2013 has resulted in them remaining unusually high for all of 2014 ytd.
    3) The market is unlikely to have picked up on the improvements in margins, so I would expect REGI to beat estimates for Q2.
    4) Going into year end, talk will focus on the reinstatement of the blenders tax credit. The tax has a 100% track record of getting reinstated.
    5) When/if the tax gets reinstated it historically has been made retroactive, so just like 2012, what was a loss in real time becomes a nice gain post tax reinstatement.
    6) REGI has the advantage most other biodiesel firms don't, that being scale. Just like in 2012, REGI will be able to maintain high production throughout the entire year betting on the tax credit being reinstated.
    7) Investors interested in REGI should look at their earnings releases and how they adjusted 2012 for the tax reinstatement to see the impact a potential repeat will have on its 2014 earnings.
    8) Key points, investors should focus on the biodiesel margins which are now positive, biodiesel production relative to its 1.2 billion gallon mandate and prospects of the tax credit being reinstated. All look positive going into the 2nd half of 2014.
    Jul 4, 2014. 09:30 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Driven By Noise, But High-Quality Noise [View article]
    "The fact that TSLA stock can’t be justified on the basis of value is not a deterrent from owning the shares."

    That is straight out of the Dotcom text book of "new metrics." I'm pretty sure if you go read about that exact same argument was made. TSLA has 1/2 the market cap of GM, and only 1 car. Really? Sure, it is a trendy cool car and fits well with current fight climate change agenda, but those trends can change rapidly.

    Tesla just a tax-funded government project
    Any U.S. buyer of a Tesla car qualifies for a $7,500 federal tax credit, while states like Colorado throw in up to $6,000 more in state income-tax credits. Taxpayers pay first so Tesla can build the cars and again to help the wealthy buy them. - See more at:
    Apr 5, 2014. 11:47 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors' Guide To El Nino, Climate Change And Summer Weather Forecast [View article]
    "The audacity of the denier is impressive"

    Please tell everyone where I am wrong? I keep asking people to refute my claims instead of just throwing insults. Please tell everyone where I am wrong.
    Mar 14, 2014. 05:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Keystone XL Pipeline Still Matter? [View article]
    "Environmental concerns have been the most publicized aspects of the pipeline, with opponents arguing that the project could accelerate climate change by enabling increased production from the oil sands of Alberta, which creates 17% higher greenhouse gas emissions than the average crude used in the US. "

    Do people understand the consequences of this comment? We are blocking economic growth in the US because of what Canada is doing. Why then are we trading with China? We could us this justification to stop trade with any polluting nation. We are literally threatening a Canadian industry and blocking US jobs. This will set a very very very bad precedent.
    Mar 4, 2014. 10:52 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Fails As A Currency And The Bubble Will Eventually Pop [View article]
    Had the Bitcoin/inelastic currency been the currency in 2008, the entire economy would have collapsed. People that want to destroy the Federal Reserve and our financial system simply don't understand it. With the bitcoin there can essentially never be loans, and in the case of a bitcoin run, the system would immediately collapse. One only need to watch the movie "Its a Wonderful Life" to see what happens when you get a bank run and there is no lender of last resort. The system collapses. Also, 21 million bitcoins in a global economy of 60 trillion is a joke. No why can it ever fulfill its promise of a global para-currency. What is likely to happen is Goldman Sacs is going to take the time of understand this issue and create its own Bitcoin that doesn't increase 1,000% in a year and has a finite amount, they will create a currency that is tied to a basket of global currencies and expands and contracts to make sure that people that use their currency have a stable value and can more easily be converted from one currency to the next.
    Jan 14, 2014. 08:57 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment