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Robert Wagner  

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  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "How risky can it be?"

    Very, remove the EPA's RFS2 and those assets are worthless, regardless of what the balance sheet says.
    Mar 30, 2014. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "Syntroleum stock volume had a curious spike at the end of the day. Do you know why? "

    Don't know who or why, but SYNM is selling at a 20% discount to where it should trade. If I were an institution I would be buying shares to ensure the buyout takes place. It is basically a free 20% if they succeed.
    Mar 22, 2014. 01:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "yeah... odd that one has not come out yet. Was expecting something by now. Robert to be honest it's odd that you would have posted that as the proxy, because I know you know that isn't a vote on the buyout."

    Maybe I misunderstood what people are looking for. The proxy for the vote is held up with the SEC. It was supposed to be a done deal by the end of March, but it is out of the hands of REGI and SYNM. Once things are set I'm sure a press release will be made and shareholders contacted. It may not be a done deal, but a vote against the buyout would basically exhaust SYNM's cash and leave them very few options. It would take $10 million at least to start the plant, and SYNM won't have it. Also, I would imagine institutions will buy enough shares to ensure that the vote succeeds, it would be free money to them as it would ensure the discount would disappear.
    Mar 22, 2014. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    Here is Proxy:
    http://bit.ly/1ibUzXs
    Mar 16, 2014. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    That was going to be my point, institutions have been buying and insiders own a lot of the company. I would imagine institutions may boost their holdings just to ensure the merger passes, it will almost guarantee a nice pop in the stock price.
    Mar 14, 2014. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "You wrote: "There are huge barriers to entry.... There may be no obstacles to entering this industry." to be flip, you should make up your mind. In reality, you corrected yourself. "

    Go try to start a BD company. I'm pretty sure the reality of my theory will prove itself real fast. Economies of scale are everything in this industry. Sure you can start a BD plant, but it is unlikely you will stay in business long. The competitive environment is a huge barrier to entry. Believe it or not. REGI relies on people not understanding that concept, and that is why they can buy plants for pennies on the dollar. Some people just have to learn the hard way. You seem to be one of those people.
    Mar 14, 2014. 10:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "Why is the management using stock for the new acquisitions when it doesn't have that much debt in balance sheet and has huge cash positions."

    JHV10, REGI can produce 257 million gallons per year. Sometimes, like 2012 and this year, REGI will need to produce at a negative margin to capture a retroactive tax credit. REGI needs plenty of cash on hand to burn during the negative margin quarters. Without the cash they have to shut down and pass up the tax credit when it gets reinstated.
    Mar 14, 2014. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    Yep, I was actually considering writing an article that included that little gem. So did the CEO, but a fewer number.
    Mar 13, 2014. 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    SYNM just released earnings. They have $11 mill in cash. Basically they are in a box. It would likely take the full $11 million to restart. Basically it is game over if they don't agree to the buy-out. They would either have to issue new shares or borrow, but once again, to do that they would need to be near 100% confident that the plant was going to run, and that is a big big gamble. SYNM simply needs new funding to bring the plant to life, and that is where REGI comes in.
    Mar 13, 2014. 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "The most promising biofuel remains off the EPAs charts and is algae primarily because it is not mandated by the government."

    That helps REGI and SYNM, they refine the oils produced by algae. See comment below. SYNM has already used algae oil as a feedstock.

    "Although this stock looks attractive as long as oil doesn't weaken substantially"

    The price of oil is irrelevant as long as the EPA's RFS2 is in place. If that disappears you are right, but that doesn't look to be on the horizon.
    Mar 13, 2014. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "That said very informative article but I agree with another commenter I see bioengineered Algae produced biofuels providing a headwind for this company that in the long run it will not be able to be overcome."

    Why? I think SYNM has used its process to refine algae oils. To the best of my knowledge algae produces the feedstock not the fuel. REGI and SYNM refine the oil, algae produces it.

    Dynamic will produce the Navy fuel in Geismar, La. using U.S.-sourced yellow grease (used cooking oil) and tailored algal oil from South San Francisco’s Solazyme as feedstocks. Deliverables for May 2012 include 100,000 gallons of jet fuel (Hydro-treated Renewable JP- 5 or HRJ-5) and 350,000 gallons of marine distillate fuel (Hydro-Treated Renewable F-76 or HRD-76), Dynamic says.
    Mar 13, 2014. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    Thanks OLPDS, my understanding is that SYNM asked TSN twice in 2013 to restart the plant and both time they were refused. TSN used the excuse that they wanted to wait until SYNM decided what they wanted to do about the sale. I'm pretty sure that was said in a recent conference call. From the people I've talked to the SYNM/TSN relationship was simply dysfunctional and toxic, and I truly hope REGI can smooth things out. As you pointed out, they burned through all the tax credit with the plant being idle. TSN has huge resources, if they wanted the plant started they would have started it. They could have simply donated the feedstock to get it running if they really wanted the plant to be running. They have warrants on SYNM and I'm sure a running plant would have brought a better price for SYNM than a shuttered one.

    The problem as I understand it is that it will cost $20 million minimum to get the plant restated, $10 mill from SYNM. The plant doesn't have a great track record so this last restart would have been a last chance for SYNM. If a problem developed they wouldn't be able to continue on without further funding. That would mean another stock offering or going into debt.

    I'm as frustrated as everyone one else that holds SYNM, and really would have liked to see them get this plant up and running. The cash flow potential is enormous, especially if another blend wall issue develops.

    That being said, I'm worried that people will vote against the buyout, and then I think we are in real trouble. SYNM simply doesn't have the cash IMHO to continue on much longer. REGI has the resources to bring the SYNM promise to life, and I'm afraid that is the best we can hope for. But I'm with you, it has been a huge disappointment. I have a CPA friend that always warns against 50/50 agreements, and SYNM is a great case study as to that belief. Someone had to own it, and teaming up a microcap with a megacap is a death sentence if the megacap doesn't play ball. They can simply outlast the microcap in any disagreement.
    Mar 13, 2014. 03:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "If the market had its say almost no alternative fuels would survive that which can be provided by oil distillates. "

    Yep, that is why politics is so important to this industry.
    Mar 13, 2014. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "By announcing the deal with REGI, I feel that they were able to cover up the fact that they didn't have the ability to operate Dynamic Fuels. SYNM management strung shareholders along until the price fell out. Then, they announced that the deal was for fractional shares of REGI; equal to not even half of what SYNM was valued at when the deal was first announced! "

    I totally disagree, read the proxy statement. Another buyer strung them along, then backed out. SYNM has simply run out of cash, that has and always was their Achilles heal. You should be upset at those who prevented them from restarting, not SYNM. IMHO REGI will be able to provide SYNM shareholders with the resources that will allow SYNM's technology to be fully realized. SYNM is much stronger as part of a diversified energy company than as a stand alone.
    Mar 13, 2014. 12:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "Thorough in hiss examination of a few parts of the story but utterly simplistic. The heart of the bio-diesel manufacturing process is very simple and the industry is largely devoid of barriers to entry."

    There are huge barriers to entry. Sure the technology, but the economics aren't. There may be no obstacles to entering this industry, but to produce at a profitable level you have to be able to compete with well capitalized firms like REGI that have all the advantages. REGI and its technologies, economies of scale and broad foot print are huge barriers to entry. Tell a firm that REGI has bought out that there are no barriers to entry into the BD industry. The efficient commodities markets are a huge barrier to themselves. REGI can lower the cost of its production well below a smaller firm that must rely on soy bean oil. That barrier to entry is the most important one of all.
    Mar 13, 2014. 10:58 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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