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Robert Weinstein

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  • Watch Me Shoot Down Robert Weinstein's One Dimensional Herbalife Bull Thesis [View instapost]
    Hello Raven,

    Interesting piece and thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    I don't wish to engage in a long drawn out affair, so please don't feel slighted if this is my only response. You make a few wrong assumptions.

    The first is that I posted exact entries via my options newsletter and Real Money Pro on how to best execute a long strategy using options, but you didn't include that. That's a fatal flaw because the point isn't to correctly predict what will happen, the objective is to make money (at least for me).

    Second isn't your fault, but I did enter long after the article posted. I remain long as of this post and expect to until the option IV falls. As the situation evolves, so will my investment

    US doesn't account for 18% of sales and I didn't write that it does.

    The comparison with BP is relevant because at the time referenced it was widely feared the whole company may fall apart.

    I've done business in China for years and I have a firm grasp on what the environment is like. I don't believe HLF will end sales there.

    Distributor consumption isn't in itself problematic. HLF offers 100% money back for product up to a year after purchase for distributors.

    some of Ackman's key assumptions about HLF have already been proved inaccurate. His presentation uses entirely too much emotion and not enough legal logic to support his valuation.

    My last article is only one in a series and isn't the last piece.

    I'm an active trader and "backbone" isn't something I give the slightest interest about. I don't wish to impress you or demonstrate how smart I am, my objective is to make readers money. As long as the readers make money I couldn't care less if the stock moves to $90 or $20.

    Long or short, it's a mistake to buy premium. Historically it's a losing preposition with a negative expectancy in this type of situation unless you're day trading.

    Lastly, I'm surprised given my reputation for trading options that you would discount my strategy as non-committal. It appears you haven't done your homework. All my swing or longer trades include options when available.

    Mark Twain once said history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme (or something like that). I've heard this tune many times, especially in 87, 89, 00, 09..

    Best of luck to you and have a great weekend

    Bob
    Mar 28 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Zynga: User Interest On The Decline [View article]
    I am a noted bear with both $FB and $ZNGA but the data doesn't support the conclusion. Using the charts for analysis is like driving using your rear view mirror.

    It's summer time folks, of course usage is going to be down. If anything I believe the charts as presented in this article support a bullish argument for both.

    That said, I am still bearish, but lets keep opinion based on enough data to support a conclusion. A review and subsequent opinion of two months usage during a season change is full of peril.
    Jul 16 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Lennar, KB Homes Report Earnings The Week Of June 25 [View article]
    what makes "smart money" smart is short sellers are typically much more sophisticated and correct more often compared to longs.
    Jun 24 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lexmark International Stock Option Hedged Dividend Capture [View article]
    Hello Outcast,

    Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts.

    There are some things that you missed or are not necessarily correct depending on one's situation.
    1. yes, we can predict with various sigmas what the decay will likely be.
    2. there is evidence to suggest this is not true for all stocks, BUT overall an equal drop is calculated in.
    3. option all else being equal WILL drop by an amount equal to the dividend, not half as you suggest (I don't know where you get the 50% from, you can look at the chain and view the theta.)
    4. worst case you could have four commissions, but this is where things really can become night and day. I pay very little commissions as well as most professional investors. If I get exercised I pay zero commission. size has no real factor in my commissions, BUT of course this can vary widely.

    This is not a simple strategy for everyone. It requires a level of sophistication and understanding of options to make it work. If an investor is paying high commissions it certainly changes the situation.

    Rocco Pendola Option Newsletter which I contribute weekly option captures and techniques goes much further into the subject. I am also going to have a live webinar next month. I will go into detail how it's done and what to avoid etc.. I also have my trading journal where you can review past captures that I do from time to time. paid2trade.com

    Best to you
    May 13 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lexmark International Stock Option Hedged Dividend Capture [View article]
    Hello Ad,

    Thanks for reading and it's a good question. I use price, dividend, beta, IV, time to ex-dividend, time to expiration, price relative to moving averages for most of the criteria to develop the amount.

    I have done it enough now that I can "back of the envelope" get close
    May 11 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Intel, Protalix: Learning Lessons With Options [View article]
    Billy,

    You're finding out what a lot of people find out in the same way, although usually through earnings releases. You should take a long hard look at Rocco's newsletter. I believe if you had suscribed you would have known what to expect with the options with any given price move. Knowing what to expect based on a given underlying move would allow you to best position for your goals and risk tolerance.

    This sorta feels like an ad, which I don't mind writing because I know how many benefit from the newsletter, and your comment indicates you are an ideal candidate to really ramp up your option knowledge.

    Maybe ask Rocco for a sample copy, I would bet he will provide you with one.
    May 3 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: How Markets Really Work: A Quantitative Guide To Stock Market Behavior [View article]
    LOL, thanks....

    Glad you did well with RIMM, I recently faded UNG as well by selling May $15 puts. They are nicely in the green (cost basis is a little over 80 cents), but I am feeling greedy with this one. Will likely hold and see if UNG moves back under $16 before worrying about covering.

    I am watching RIMM also after the "gloom" of OS10 hit the market.

    Best to you

    Robert
    May 2 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Intel, Protalix: Learning Lessons With Options [View article]
    $INTC

    Hey Stretch,

    I just wrote up a book review that goes into great detail of what the numbers are for a stock that has gone down or up three days in a row.

    There are other qualifiers, but in a nutshell you are on to something with the selling INTC puts after three down days.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 2 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Intel, Protalix: Learning Lessons With Options [View article]
    How about this track record:
    #1 in options (plus ranked highly in others)
    Articles (705)
    Instablog (51)
    StockTalks (1,082)
    Comments (6,014)
    4,029 Followers

    vs.

    a few comments
    0 followers

    Rocco has gained more followers while out riding his bike than most gain their whole time on SA. I guess they all could in error for following him.

    I can't speak for anyone else, but I am glad to be following him and gain a lot of insight as a result.
    May 2 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Intel, Protalix: Learning Lessons With Options [View article]
    "It's akin to taking the Leafs over the Canucks on a Saturday night." - When betting on hockey games, it all comes down to having a good handicapper.
    May 2 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours [View article]
    Upset,

    ahhhh, sorry I didn't follow the first time. I contribute and co/founded his newsletter, but I don't recall SIRI coming up since January when it started.

    If you do sign up you get to look through all the newsletters that "printed" and you could verify. I will likely chat with Rocco either Tomorrow or Wednesday and ask if I remember.

    Regardless if he has or has not, I can say that Rocco does not play any games and is not out to make a quick buck. I personally know of (legal) offers presented to him he turned down because of his high ethical standards.

    Rocco just went over 4000 followers today because he is a great communicator, but also because he is honest and you can see it come through in his writing.
    May 1 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours [View article]
    $SIRI $P $TST
    The jury comes back everyday with a verdict until the trade is exited and so far Cameron kaine has come back a big winner
    Apr 30 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours [View article]
    Hi Upset,

    Good question. I think it's smart to always question everyone's motive.

    You may find it interesting that I am one of the most transparent people you will find on SA. I have a chat room that I have been in pretty much every day for the last five or so years. I call out all my trades often in advance.

    The other thing about my trading is that I am very mechanical with almost all my trades (most of what I do is short term) based on TA. I basically do the same thing over and over again. People in the chat room become so familiar with my trading they point out stocks that I may want to trade.
    Apr 30 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wireless Internet Will Continue To Be A Rock In The Shoes Of Sirius, DISH And DirecTV [View article]
    Yes I would agree streaming on a phone is more expensive if you have a dataplan only for a replacement of your $SIRI listening.

    However, I believe most people who have or will get a smartphone will also get a dataplan. $S for example offers unlimited and works great, at least for me.

    As a result if you compare an $AAPL iPhone from Sprint (a common example) the costs are actually lower than having a Sirius subscription
    Apr 28 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wireless Internet Will Continue To Be A Rock In The Shoes Of Sirius, DISH And DirecTV [View article]
    Naked,

    Right, good point and it's why I brought it up. When thinking in terms of what $SIRI is likely to be valued at sometimes it's good to not use the stock price, but rather the market cap.

    Asking questions like "do I believe this could turn into a $16 billion dollar company" is a useful exercise that can be lost in the mix.

    Best to you

    Robert
    Apr 28 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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