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Robert Weinstein

 
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  • Why Zynga's Earnings Are A Non-Event [View article]
    Hi Alliemorgan,

    Thanks for reading and I appreciate your opinion.

    I do believe P/E is always important, especially when viewed from a forward P/E as I have here. At the end of the day, people invest in expected earnings, not sales. P/E's importance may be diminished in a fast growing company/space, but absent rapid growth, earnings is the dominating metric I use. Also I account for an adjustment due to the special situation Zynga presents.

    I caution you to be very careful with your train of thought that a falling stock shifts a hold into a buy. Also, most of the last analyst action has been to raise the price target.

    We both agree the stock is a buy and has great potential. But it's not risk-free. If you're not mentally able to believe the shares can possibly fall under $2, you shouldn't be in it.

    You may ask why I take such a conservative stance in my comment. There's one common theme throughout all my articles, especially ones that I have a position in - I never hype and/or try to pump. I'm building a long-term reputation. That's why my articles and comments have a steady hand.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Zynga's Earnings Are A Non-Event [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words Simplestuff. I covered Zynga extensively at TheStreet, including over a year ago when I was bearish (and correct).

    Mattrick really dropped the ball at the MS Conf, but I doubt that mistake will be made twice. I normally cut and run fast when a stock isn't performing as expected, but I see the long-term value that sitting on my hands can produce.
    Jul 29, 2014. 06:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Zynga's Earnings Are A Non-Event [View article]
    Zynga already has RMG and expanded within the last year through Facebook.

    It offers poker and casino type games and is licensed in the U.K. All it will take is an announcement that they are expanding into another sizable market and the stock will explode. That's why I wrote is has a binary upside to it.
    Jul 29, 2014. 06:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Races Past Tesla And GM Into Earnings [View article]
    Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.
    Jul 17, 2014. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Verizon Sound Good Into Earnings Compared To AT&T And Sprint? [View article]
    DoctoRx,

    Thanks for reading and commenting.

    You're correct, but there are a lot of investors that could use more knowledge.

    I'm bullish. If I owned it, I wouldn't get out. That said, if I was looking at VZ or T, I would pick T because it pays a higher dividend yield and the rest of the metrics are more or less spiting hairs in my opinion.

    Best

    Bob
    Jul 17, 2014. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Knows How To Deliver Against Google And Microsoft Into Earnings [View article]
    You may want to take a look at Xbox sales and rethink what "we do know".

    Also, take a look at revenue and profits. The chart moves from the bottom left to the upper right, so "we do know" it's doing something correct.

    My thoughts on Amazon's phone http://bit.ly/1oIeyh0

    Best of luck.
    Jul 16, 2014. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Knows How To Deliver Against Google And Microsoft Into Earnings [View article]
    Good point, but many BlackBerry investors laughed at AAPL and GOOG at first too.

    That said, I don't believe the AMZN phone will cut deeply into Apple http://bit.ly/1oIeyh0

    But, that doesn't mean it can't.
    Jul 16, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Knows How To Deliver Against Google And Microsoft Into Earnings [View article]
    As disclosed, I don't have a position in MSFT, but I wrote many articles about MSFT in the last two years, all bullish and all correct.

    "if only 5% of them bought an iWatch" - I think 1% is a huge win. 5%? I would not bet on that.

    That said, I believe AAPL is a great stock for its yield.

    Best of luck.
    Jul 16, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Continues To Beat Apple, Pandora, And Google Into Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words, I appreciate it.
    Jul 15, 2014. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Continues To Beat Apple, Pandora, And Google Into Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Slim,

    Just a quick note to say that subscription revenue trumps ad revenue by a long shot. Not even close.

    If you can get a credit card, you're much better off than trying to monetize through ads.
    Jul 15, 2014. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Continues To Beat Apple, Pandora, And Google Into Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for reading and adding to the conversation.

    Very true, if it delivers a significant beat and guides higher than expected, shorts will scramble to cover.
    Jul 15, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    You're welcome Michael,

    Correct, Alibaba is big in China, but is also big in America (and rest of world) as a wholesale sourcing site. If it wasn't for Yahoo, most non-importers probably would have never heard of it.

    Alibaba's model is closer to ebay in that their main model is putting buyers and sellers together. That said, the fees it charges are magnitudes lower than Amazon and when you put the pieces together - 120 P/E, exploding employee count, diminishing returns due to scale, several large businesses (Kindle, Prime, and others) that are losing money, and competitors that are improving (TGT, WMT, SHLD), you have a situation where the risk outweighs the reward.

    And that is the key. It's not that Amazon CAN'T continue higher, it's that I believe the potential reward isn't large enough to justify the massive risk. This is a stock that could get cut in half and still be expensive. One caveat, I also think it will enjoy a relatively high multiple as long as customer service remains strong. People tend to hold stocks they like and that provides a lifting effect, but just not 100+ multiple.

    Best of luck
    Jul 15, 2014. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Hi Ebitda,

    Yes, they do have brand recognition for sure.

    That said, it didn't take five years for Amazon and Apple to destroy BlackBerry's share price. Keep in mind that the market is forward looking.

    Best of luck
    Jul 14, 2014. 05:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Great question Michael,

    Many sellers on Ebay and Amazon already use Alibaba for sourcing. It's a small step to using the same site/look and feel for selling.

    As consumers, you may not heard of /much about Alibaba, but online merchants know it well. Remember, Alibaba is bigger than eBay and Amazon combined in product sales terms. It also happens to be busy hiring US talent. 11main isn't the problem. fear of losing 25% of sales isn't a problem (not right away). The problem is Amazon's 120 P/E multiple that is supported based on investor's belief that revenue will continue growing rapidly.

    All it will take is a slowing of revenue guidance and margin compression to nose-dive the stock price. We've seen this movie too many times to not remember how it ends.
    Jul 14, 2014. 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Hi Dsh,

    "People have been saying this for the past 20 years, and Amazon has gone from $1 to $350." - while somewhat true, I haven't. Also, I like Amazon, I use it all the time, but I separate the store from the stock.

    "People have been saying this for the past 20 years, and Amazon has gone from $1 to $350." - I suggest you read The Black Swan. The ground is shifting.

    Finally, Shorting AMZN on its way up the first time above $300 was one of my best calls in my option newsletter http://bit.ly/1kWIZ1K

    Best of luck and I hope you do well.
    Jul 14, 2014. 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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