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Robert Weinstein

 
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  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Hi Ebitda,

    Yes, they do have brand recognition for sure.

    That said, it didn't take five years for Amazon and Apple to destroy BlackBerry's share price. Keep in mind that the market is forward looking.

    Best of luck
    Jul 14, 2014. 05:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Great question Michael,

    Many sellers on Ebay and Amazon already use Alibaba for sourcing. It's a small step to using the same site/look and feel for selling.

    As consumers, you may not heard of /much about Alibaba, but online merchants know it well. Remember, Alibaba is bigger than eBay and Amazon combined in product sales terms. It also happens to be busy hiring US talent. 11main isn't the problem. fear of losing 25% of sales isn't a problem (not right away). The problem is Amazon's 120 P/E multiple that is supported based on investor's belief that revenue will continue growing rapidly.

    All it will take is a slowing of revenue guidance and margin compression to nose-dive the stock price. We've seen this movie too many times to not remember how it ends.
    Jul 14, 2014. 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Hi Dsh,

    "People have been saying this for the past 20 years, and Amazon has gone from $1 to $350." - while somewhat true, I haven't. Also, I like Amazon, I use it all the time, but I separate the store from the stock.

    "People have been saying this for the past 20 years, and Amazon has gone from $1 to $350." - I suggest you read The Black Swan. The ground is shifting.

    Finally, Shorting AMZN on its way up the first time above $300 was one of my best calls in my option newsletter http://bit.ly/1kWIZ1K

    Best of luck and I hope you do well.
    Jul 14, 2014. 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Hi Bobbert,

    Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts.

    I think you're missing the whole point. It's not about Amazon losing much in terms of sales. In fact, from the consumer point of view, little may change.

    However, the stock is a buzz lightyear, priced to perfection and beyond. Amazon's growth only needs to stop for the stock to fall in half. Add margin compression and the red ink may flow like a river. There is no room for error in execution, growth, or earnings, zero....

    Meanwhile, investors are focusing on drones that may go into service in 5 to 7 years from now (and even then in limited areas). Amazon is the classic focus on reward and dismiss the risk type of stock here. A fire-breathing dragon is at the door knocking and if Amazon was priced at 25 times earnings it wouldn't be a big deal, but it isn't and so it is a big deal.

    Best of luck and when the music stops, don't delay finding a chair.
    Jul 14, 2014. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    "Amazon is more than just a retailer" - I agree, but that's part of Amazon's problem. It makes a lot of money through its sales portal, but loses money in other areas.

    There are many metrics that are valuable to help determine an appropriate price, but everyone understands P/E and at the end of the day, P/E rules king because no company can maintain a multiple over 100 forever.

    I can see Amazon's multiple falling below 30 FAST if they begin to stack up losses and fail to grow the top and bottom lines because another player enters the space. Anyone not understanding the potential peril owning a triple digit P/E in the face of a much larger competitor entering the space deserves what they get.
    Jul 14, 2014. 01:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Earnings Preview: Can The Chipmaker Repeat Its Last Quarter's Profit [View article]
    Hi Techguy,

    wow, thanks for adding to the conversation.

    I'm ok with being wrong, I'm wrong often. I don't predict the future, only the odds.

    I owned one of the largest, if not the largest PC computer companies in my state at the time, so I know a couple things about consumers comparing CPUs also.

    I also know not to rely heavily on anecdotal evidence, and everything known is already priced in.

    Best of luck, hope you do well with AMD.
    Jul 10, 2014. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Earnings Preview: Can The Chipmaker Repeat Its Last Quarter's Profit [View article]
    Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts. Sure, of course. My opinion changes as the facts change. I don't have an ax to grind, and in fact, I did a lot of business with the company in days gone by - and know people that work on its chips.

    That said, I have a few AMD articles and so far, they're on the money. http://bit.ly/1rYPdWu
    Jul 10, 2014. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Earnings Preview: Can The Chipmaker Repeat Its Last Quarter's Profit [View article]
    I have never seen a contributor on this website so "lost in the sauce" - Well, that's probably true from your perspective.

    I hope you gave more due diligence to your investment than you did finding out how accurate my calls/articles are.

    Best of luck and I hope your AMD does well for you
    Jul 10, 2014. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Earnings Preview: Can The Chipmaker Repeat Its Last Quarter's Profit [View article]
    Hi Tascer,

    Thanks for your kind words, I appreciate it.

    I hope you're correct and it does make a new 52wk high. I know that would be great for many investors and I surely don't have a wish for this one to go lower.

    That said, it may make a new yr high, but that won't diminish my overall opinion that it's highly speculative. The Beta is 2.2, and that's a level most consider volatile and speculative.

    Best of luck
    Jul 10, 2014. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Trumps Citigroup's Bull Thesis Into Earnings [View article]
    I do remember when Apple was sub $400 and wrote about it many times including these pieces
    http://bit.ly/TV2397

    http://bit.ly/TV2398

    http://bit.ly/TV2399
    Jul 10, 2014. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Yahoo's Earnings Compete Against Google, Amazon And Microsoft? [View article]
    "but another nagging concern is that there might have been more to that missed ad meeting than oversleeping." - Interesting observation.
    Jul 10, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Yahoo's Earnings Compete Against Google, Amazon And Microsoft? [View article]
    Thanks for reading and for sharing your thoughts.

    I agree. I'm thinking of moving to Office 365 and I like the folders in folders organization both hotmail and gmail offers (yahoo doesn't last time I checked).

    Huge potential, but wow, they need to focus on improving what they have more than buying even more half-backed sites.

    That said, the market has discounted the shares fully and as long as Alibaba doesn't turn into another Chinese fraud stock, it's hard to picture the shares not appreciating.

    I'm writing another Yahoo piece soon in regards to Alibaba and what it means to others including AMZN EBAY and of course YHOO
    Jul 10, 2014. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Trumps Citigroup's Bull Thesis Into Earnings [View article]
    We both agree that Citi has upside potential, but it's not clear how much more than WFC. I have owned C in the past. Bought around $3.80 I believe, or $38 post r-split. Sold when the government required the bank to let go its best traders because they were paid too much.
    Jul 10, 2014. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Trumps Citigroup's Bull Thesis Into Earnings [View article]
    Thank you. My source was outdated, and I won't rely on them again.
    Jul 10, 2014. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Trumps Citigroup's Bull Thesis Into Earnings [View article]
    Thanks, nice catch. the updated figures should be live soon.
    Jul 10, 2014. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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