Seeking Alpha

Robert Weinstein

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Robert Weinstein's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Once Again, Here's What To Expect [View article]
    Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts. I agree, but keep in mind it's already priced in. Rising electric costs are a big deal, albeit, if spot continues on the current trend margins may improve despite rising costs.
    Jul 1, 2014. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Once Again, Here's What To Expect [View article]
    Thanks for reading and your absolutely correct, guidance is always everything. Here's my thoughts on BlackBerry BBRY http://bit.ly/1rVwlod
    Jul 1, 2014. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    We're straying a little off topic, but I can answer this.

    "I don't understand how some people gamble huge sums of money on short term stock price movements. I have never been able to predict short term stock prices with any degree of consistency, let alone their reaction to earnings." - The reason, in part is because some can.

    For those with the skill, work ethic, dedication, and discipline, short-term investing is more profitable.
    Jun 23, 2014. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Maybe, but that doesn't make it material. It's akin to stating "you guarantee every trade has a seller"

    You original comment was about execs i.e. insiders. Many companies don't have insider sales in the past six months, and some have net insider purchases (beyond option plans).

    Best of luck.
    Jun 23, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Many companies don't have insider selling. Many have insider buying.
    Jun 21, 2014. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Thank you, I appreciate you taking the time to say so.

    Context, it's all about context.
    Jun 21, 2014. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Hi Ben,

    Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts and for your kind words.

    I think it's a great idea to read both the bear and bull thesis from as many viewpoints as possible. Regardless if I'm long or short, I want to make very sure I understand why someone is on the other side.

    Remember, it isn't as much about the company as it is about the investors in the short run.
    Jun 21, 2014. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Thank you, I appreciate it.
    Jun 21, 2014. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Stocks with low PEs fall all the time because revenue and/or earnings is expected to fall. A low PE by itself isn't a good metric to gauge value.

    I didn't write a pullback to $24 would make for an attractive buying point. You may wish to read the comment again, and maybe some investment books too.

    Best of luck
    Jun 21, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Hi Mace,

    Thanks for reading and adding your thoughts.

    To be clear, analyst adjustments don't always move a stock. With regular consistency, analysts downgrade near the bottom and upgrade near the top as well. Some are much better than others (not a surprise).

    That said, they often get it right, and that's why They're worth paying attention to. Even if because everyone else is.

    Best of luck with your calls, I hope you do well

    (full disclosure, I recommended - as a trade - buying puts to my options newsletter subscribers yesterday)
    Jun 19, 2014. 05:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Hi Ben,

    Thanks for reading an adding to the conversation.

    It's always the same case when you're not filling the punch bowl. I could have wrote the exact same thing, with the only difference being a very glowing and positive prognosis and the comments would sing praises.

    It really becomes interesting when I write an full blown bearish article (see MCP for example). All I'm saying is that IF Micron doesn't significantly beat, the shares may likely fall.

    Considering I get asked often why XYZ went down after beating, I know many don't fully understand the dynamics of the market.

    Nice buy. I almost joined you before the big court case a while ago. I do agree all else being equal, a pullback into about $24ish may offer an attractive buying dip.
    Jun 18, 2014. 07:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Nice catch h2nick. Thanks for taking the time to point it out.
    Jun 18, 2014. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen's Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Not surprising given the pay of pharmacists, regulatory nature of the business and Walgreen's business model.

    The situation impacts all major chains relatively equal, so from that viewpoint, I don't see it as a material game changer overall unless a trend develops that I'm currently unaware of.
    Jun 18, 2014. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Me Shoot Down Robert Weinstein's One Dimensional Herbalife Bull Thesis [View instapost]
    Hello Raven,

    Interesting piece and thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    I don't wish to engage in a long drawn out affair, so please don't feel slighted if this is my only response. You make a few wrong assumptions.

    The first is that I posted exact entries via my options newsletter and Real Money Pro on how to best execute a long strategy using options, but you didn't include that. That's a fatal flaw because the point isn't to correctly predict what will happen, the objective is to make money (at least for me).

    Second isn't your fault, but I did enter long after the article posted. I remain long as of this post and expect to until the option IV falls. As the situation evolves, so will my investment

    US doesn't account for 18% of sales and I didn't write that it does.

    The comparison with BP is relevant because at the time referenced it was widely feared the whole company may fall apart.

    I've done business in China for years and I have a firm grasp on what the environment is like. I don't believe HLF will end sales there.

    Distributor consumption isn't in itself problematic. HLF offers 100% money back for product up to a year after purchase for distributors.

    some of Ackman's key assumptions about HLF have already been proved inaccurate. His presentation uses entirely too much emotion and not enough legal logic to support his valuation.

    My last article is only one in a series and isn't the last piece.

    I'm an active trader and "backbone" isn't something I give the slightest interest about. I don't wish to impress you or demonstrate how smart I am, my objective is to make readers money. As long as the readers make money I couldn't care less if the stock moves to $90 or $20.

    Long or short, it's a mistake to buy premium. Historically it's a losing preposition with a negative expectancy in this type of situation unless you're day trading.

    Lastly, I'm surprised given my reputation for trading options that you would discount my strategy as non-committal. It appears you haven't done your homework. All my swing or longer trades include options when available.

    Mark Twain once said history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme (or something like that). I've heard this tune many times, especially in 87, 89, 00, 09..

    Best of luck to you and have a great weekend

    Bob
    Mar 28, 2014. 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Zynga: User Interest On The Decline [View article]
    I am a noted bear with both $FB and $ZNGA but the data doesn't support the conclusion. Using the charts for analysis is like driving using your rear view mirror.

    It's summer time folks, of course usage is going to be down. If anything I believe the charts as presented in this article support a bullish argument for both.

    That said, I am still bearish, but lets keep opinion based on enough data to support a conclusion. A review and subsequent opinion of two months usage during a season change is full of peril.
    Jul 16, 2012. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
893 Comments
443 Likes