Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
Hi Finney,
Thanks for reading and posting your thoughts.
The thing is I would like to be a bull. I think I will be a bull again, just not until I see a much greater monetizing of the product.
If we simply do some back of the envelope math we can find some interesting numbers. 20 million subs 2 visits a month ave 4 pages per visit = 160 million page views per month 2 ads related to movies, devices to play movies etc.. per page * $2 CPM rate for ads ($2 per thousand impressions) That's $300K per month in added revenue that they don't have to charge the customers for.
You say they can't do things because of their financial straits, but I say they need to do things because of their financial straights/business model.
Just some thoughts and I hope you do well with your shares through the earnings. Have a good weekend
Between Nokia And Research In Motion, RIM Is The Safer Play [View article]
61,
Thanks for reading and your comment. You may want to shift from writing puts to writing covered calls. You should find your results will be better. Not to be confused with call-put parity, calls will have greater premium with RIM than equal risk puts due to the greater profit potential in the calls.
A penny or two here and there adds up quickly with the premium as low as it is per contract in real dollars. Of course this must be weighed with transaction and opportunity costs, but with commissions as low as they can be it can be mitigated or removed totally.
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
You're not wrong, but you are comparing different PE ratios than I am. When looking at PE's I tend to focus on forward not ttm. Your PEs are based on the past, mine are the expected.
ABB Dividend Capture Using Call Options [View article]
Hi Kelly,
right you understand correctly. You can't "avoid" the steamroller in the sense of not accepting the risk by magic. Options are a shift in risk so the only way to avoid risk is to buy another option (shift the risk) and create a spread. This will lower your potential profit, but at least the steamroller can be turned into a shopping cart or something less painful if it hits you.
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
$AAPL has performed great and many can argue the price is really undervalued due to the high per share price. The market is emotional though and making the emotion pay you for your time appears to be a very effective method of lowering risk. Rocco Pendola talks about this in his newsletter http://bit.ly/wbmj9l
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
Thanks for reading my article and for your kind words. If the Board doesn't give me a call I sure hope they at least see to it that they stop leaving money on the table.
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
Hmmmmm, Seeking Alpha didn't produce this $NFLX article I did (subject to editorial improvements from the master wordsmith Michael - Thanks Michael for making me look so good!!). I can write about any stock I wish and with a bullish or bearish bias. In fact I have many bullish articles about NFLX. Seeking Alpha in my experience doesn't care in the slightest if an article in bullish or bearish. I should know, I used to be ranked number one in short ideas with most of my articles bearish. Never once did I encounter a rejection based on bias. Authors may have an agenda with so many different ones, but SA does not. I have over 600 articles and a thousand followers, so it's likely I know what I am talking about here. This is a site where everyone has a voice and everyone can decide based on an easy to search method of article history to determine the value provided by any given author.
I can't speak for anyone else, well maybe I can. I talk to Rocco Pendola once in a while and if you read his options newsletter http://bit.ly/wbmj9l you would know in greater detail his thoughts and the fact he has his own money in a short position with NFLX
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
You make a possible valid point with $AAPL although I would suspect it would not happen. Microsoft, while a cash printing press is still lumbering around trying to figure out where to go next. I doubt they would do anything to rock the boat in such a fashion.
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
Options are quoted per share and are for 100 shares in almost all situations. $AAPL has a lot of liquidity in the options due to the per share price and overall marketcap.
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
Thanks for reading the article, but it would appear you missed the main point. The main point is to hedge shares you may already have if you are worried about earnings.
I provided two different thoughts on how to do this. Many people don't know how options may assist in hedging and provide lower volatility. Of course an article is not going to say buy X strike at X month and hold for X days because everyone and every portfolio has different needs and risk tolerance.
If I provide a new idea or a reminder for some investors I consider it a success. Nothing about investing is "easy" and that's why people read my articles, to take some of the confusion away.
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
You bring up a very good question. May calls are the front month for earnings. Because they are the front month they can be expected to have the highest implied volatility into earnings. After earnings the May strike can be expected to fall the most as well.
So May offers the most premium relative to the amount of time a buyer receives. This is a starting point of ideas though and for any given investor different strikes/expiration dates may make more sense (or not hedging at all).
ABB Dividend Capture Using Call Options [View article]
Earnings is always a big deal and so that must be factored in. At the same time it's the earnings driving the IV higher on the options allowing for what should be a good risk to reward ratio for some. What one must be careful of is to avoid picking up nickels in front of a steamroller...
Why I Am Content That I Sold Apple And Gave Up Trading [View article]
Ag,
With $AAPL, $BCE, $BDX, $CMLS, $EWC, $INTC, $NOK, $P, $TWX, $WEN and most other stocks it seems to be more than a coin toss, but we can stick with it.
Let's add another influence to our coin tossing fun. I will call it "edge". Perhaps I took for granted this part was assumed when we talked about odds. Generally I don't enter into trades until the odds are stacked pretty heavily in my favor. As I get older I tend to find more comfort in ending the day positive than ending the day with a lot of commissions from my broker.
still using our favorite standard silver dollar, you find someone who is willing to pay you $1.05 every time it comes up heads and you pay $1 every time it comes up tails. Finding others to take the other side is not very hard to imagine. Casinos find people willing to take bets like these and much worse on a non stop basis.
Every time the coin gets flipped you make on average $0.025 regardless if you win or lose the bet if (and the if is important) you toss the coin enough times (trials) and your capital allows you to stay in the game (risk to ruin positional sizing which is among other important topics written about in the Pendola Options Newsletter http://bit.ly/wbmj9l)
There is a lot of comments and good interaction here in this thread. If you're reading this and wanting to know more about odds, positional sizing of portfolios, lowering risk and sleepless nights, clarifying exit strategies, edges, advantages YOU have over Wall Street (yes there are some and usually not thought about) and advantages they have over you and how to minimize them, then Rocco's newsletter is going to provide answers in the style and tone you're already enjoying here.
One of the best parts is if you email Rocco a question about a subject in the newsletter you get a reply back usually by the next day. Where else are you going to get that kind of service and honesty?
Could this be called a shameless plug for Rocco's newsletter (Rocco has been kind enough to let me play a part)? Sure, but only because after reading the comments it appears a lot of people could really get a lot of value out. The other thing is if I didn't know for a fact almost everyone will be glad they did sign up and continue with their membership I would not bring it up either.
In Wall Street there is a scene with Gecko and Fox where Gecko tells Fox that "information is the most valuable commodity there is" (or something close to that) and I fully agree. Avoiding just a few mistakes a year justifies the cost and learning a new idea or concept (Rocco does a smashing job of communicating complicated concepts into easily understood ways) puts the value way over the top. ok, I turned this comment into an ad (didn't start out that way) but sign up and try it for a month and if you don't like it I am sure he will refund your money.
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
Thanks for reading and posting your thoughts.
The thing is I would like to be a bull. I think I will be a bull again, just not until I see a much greater monetizing of the product.
If we simply do some back of the envelope math we can find some interesting numbers.
20 million subs
2 visits a month ave
4 pages per visit
= 160 million page views per month
2 ads related to movies, devices to play movies etc.. per page
* $2 CPM rate for ads ($2 per thousand impressions)
That's $300K per month in added revenue that they don't have to charge the customers for.
You say they can't do things because of their financial straits, but I say they need to do things because of their financial straights/business model.
Just some thoughts and I hope you do well with your shares through the earnings. Have a good weekend
Bob
Between Nokia And Research In Motion, RIM Is The Safer Play [View article]
Thanks for reading and your comment. You may want to shift from writing puts to writing covered calls. You should find your results will be better.
Not to be confused with call-put parity, calls will have greater premium with RIM than equal risk puts due to the greater profit potential in the calls.
A penny or two here and there adds up quickly with the premium as low as it is per contract in real dollars. Of course this must be weighed with transaction and opportunity costs, but with commissions as low as they can be it can be mitigated or removed totally.
Have a great weekend
Bob
Earnings Preview: Peabody Energy Reports Q4 Results Tuesday [View article]
Thanks for your kind words. I am not sure how I missed your comment for so long, but it was a pleasure to read it today.
Have a great weekend
Bob
Mel Karmazin Sells 11 Million Shares Of Sirius And Nets $25 Million [View article]
That's just funny......
Good work Cameron (or whoever you are) and best of luck here and everywhere else!!
Bob
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
ABB Dividend Capture Using Call Options [View article]
right you understand correctly. You can't "avoid" the steamroller in the sense of not accepting the risk by magic. Options are a shift in risk so the only way to avoid risk is to buy another option (shift the risk) and create a spread. This will lower your potential profit, but at least the steamroller can be turned into a shopping cart or something less painful if it hits you.
I like Tradestation as an option tool.
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
I can't speak for anyone else, well maybe I can. I talk to Rocco Pendola once in a while and if you read his options newsletter http://bit.ly/wbmj9l you would know in greater detail his thoughts and the fact he has his own money in a short position with NFLX
Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
I provided two different thoughts on how to do this. Many people don't know how options may assist in hedging and provide lower volatility. Of course an article is not going to say buy X strike at X month and hold for X days because everyone and every portfolio has different needs and risk tolerance.
If I provide a new idea or a reminder for some investors I consider it a success. Nothing about investing is "easy" and that's why people read my articles, to take some of the confusion away.
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
So May offers the most premium relative to the amount of time a buyer receives. This is a starting point of ideas though and for any given investor different strikes/expiration dates may make more sense (or not hedging at all).
ABB Dividend Capture Using Call Options [View article]
Why I Am Content That I Sold Apple And Gave Up Trading [View article]
With $AAPL, $BCE, $BDX, $CMLS, $EWC, $INTC, $NOK, $P, $TWX, $WEN and most other stocks it seems to be more than a coin toss, but we can stick with it.
Let's add another influence to our coin tossing fun. I will call it "edge". Perhaps I took for granted this part was assumed when we talked about odds. Generally I don't enter into trades until the odds are stacked pretty heavily in my favor. As I get older I tend to find more comfort in ending the day positive than ending the day with a lot of commissions from my broker.
still using our favorite standard silver dollar, you find someone who is willing to pay you $1.05 every time it comes up heads and you pay $1 every time it comes up tails. Finding others to take the other side is not very hard to imagine. Casinos find people willing to take bets like these and much worse on a non stop basis.
Every time the coin gets flipped you make on average $0.025 regardless if you win or lose the bet if (and the if is important) you toss the coin enough times (trials) and your capital allows you to stay in the game (risk to ruin positional sizing which is among other important topics written about in the Pendola Options Newsletter http://bit.ly/wbmj9l)
There is a lot of comments and good interaction here in this thread. If you're reading this and wanting to know more about odds, positional sizing of portfolios, lowering risk and sleepless nights, clarifying exit strategies, edges, advantages YOU have over Wall Street (yes there are some and usually not thought about) and advantages they have over you and how to minimize them, then Rocco's newsletter is going to provide answers in the style and tone you're already enjoying here.
One of the best parts is if you email Rocco a question about a subject in the newsletter you get a reply back usually by the next day. Where else are you going to get that kind of service and honesty?
Could this be called a shameless plug for Rocco's newsletter (Rocco has been kind enough to let me play a part)? Sure, but only because after reading the comments it appears a lot of people could really get a lot of value out. The other thing is if I didn't know for a fact almost everyone will be glad they did sign up and continue with their membership I would not bring it up either.
In Wall Street there is a scene with Gecko and Fox where Gecko tells Fox that "information is the most valuable commodity there is" (or something close to that) and I fully agree. Avoiding just a few mistakes a year justifies the cost and learning a new idea or concept (Rocco does a smashing job of communicating complicated concepts into easily understood ways) puts the value way over the top. ok, I turned this comment into an ad (didn't start out that way) but sign up and try it for a month and if you don't like it I am sure he will refund your money.