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Robert Weinstein

 
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  • Two for Tuesday: Short Ideas [View article]
    Hello Marlowe,

    Thanks for reading my article. No such thing as a dumb question. Much easier to ask someone who knows than to spend a lot of time trying to figure it out.

    My article is about selling CALLS not puts. shorting/selling naked calls is somewhat similar to being short the stock. Shorting puts would be like being long the stock.

    If you have any further questions feel free to ask.

    Thanks

    Robert
    Mar 2, 2011. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two for Tuesday: Short Ideas [View article]
    Hello Jinmei,

    Well I guess if you really want me to I can. The front month 34 calls are unchanged and the 35 calls are up five cents. It is not really what I would call a losing trade at this point. This is after spending most of the day in the black.

    I made a small amount on CDE stock yesterday (I didn't trade it today) so it is hard for me to say I was wrong on that one as well.

    Additionally making money or losing money on a trade does not make one "right or wrong". If there is an edge and you take it I think your right and if not than your wrong.

    For someone that was very aggressive and didn't short the calls the stock is only up about 68 cents from the open yesterday as well.

    The other one TWI, is lower from the open yesterday too.

    Best

    Robert
    Mar 2, 2011. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Building a Brand: A Core Similarity Between Demand Media and Sirius XM [View article]
    Once again great article Rocco. Your writing style really brings out the essence with clarity.
    I can't say that I want to be long SIRI when I know that this month I will cancel my account for Pandora which is free but you have me thinking about the stock.

    Goodluck with SIRI
    Mar 2, 2011. 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Short the Stock, Hedge Your Timing to Avoid Getting Squeezed [View article]
    Hello David,

    Thanks for reading my article and taking the time to comment about $NFLX.

    I found that the price of $NFLX was overpriced relative to the value of the company. The price of $NFLX combined with the option premium gave me a low risk sell call signal. At the same time I do not think the company is going out of business so the bonds look attractive to me. Especially so as a hedge. While many retail traders may not find using bonds as a hedge I believe the audience of SA is beyond retail traders. Looking at some of my followers in SA and twitter I see many of them are involved with hedge funds and other asset management.


    Best

    Robert
    Feb 28, 2011. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Let Apple Keep Secrets [View article]
    Great article Rocco

    You articulate your argument very well. While I would tend to agree that $AAPL is not priced to perfection yet I think it is getting close enough that I would not want to invest in it.

    If put to the question I would have to be short simply because I think the downside risk is bigger than what is being priced into the stock. It currently is a great company and is obviously hitting on all eight cylinders but what if that suddenly stops? What if they miss on earnings?

    A PE of about 20 suggests growth is being priced into the stock. As long as that growth continues all is fine on the Western Front. But they better not drop the ball or it may be hard to find buyers when everyone and their brother already owns this one.

    I know these things can never happen to $AAPL because "this time it's different" but it will be interesting to see what happens in the next year with Apple.

    DISC: I have no position with AAPL
    Feb 28, 2011. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking to Short Demand Media as Google Begins New Attack on Content Farms [View article]
    Hello David,

    Thank you for reading my article and taking the time to comment.

    You are probably right, maybe Google was "just kidding" when they posted this googleblog.blogspot.co... blog posting.

    While $goog did update the blog with the 2/24/11 update maybe they "forgot" about $DMD. Maybe even the 300+ updates a year that Google does to their ranking system won't have an impact at all either.

    You are always free to buy the stock and/or call options. Please feel free to come back and comment with how that works out for you.

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 28, 2011. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble: Has This Stock's Story Ended? [View article]
    I am unsure where to begin. Just about every sentence demonstrates a lack of understanding.
    1. I never suggested that there is "no place even for one major bookseller..." Borders is not going away they are restructuring. When they complete that process which it appears they will given that GE financing appears to be on board they will be in a position to be more competitive against BKS. I don't believe BKS is going out of business I believe the stock will continue to fall. How much I read does not impact BKS regardless but I guess when you do not have facts you resort to personal attacks.
    2. They dropped the dividend because the earnings do not support it. Big surprise there ??? Who cares what they "invest it" in. They are no longer making enough to pay it.
    3. Yes the company is still making money in some of the divisions and overall. Those that believe this will continue and the the company is going to do well are what is known as "counter-parties" to my trade. Good luck with that.
    4. Clear vision?? really, are they leaders in online sales? nope. Are they leaders in e-books? nope. How about retail? you can say what you want there but they are losing money in that division which is part of a shrinking market. Perhaps a pair of glasses may help that "vision"...
    4. "I have 0 stocks of B&N.." Really?? so what your saying is that you feel so strongly about the vision and the investment made with the dividends and the current price of the stock that you have invested how much of your own capital in BKS??? right.... zero
    I am proud to say that I eat my own cooking. I believe readers on SA can figure out who is more creditable, people who actually put up their own capital to back their words or people that only suggest others should.
    People who write "I believe YOU should buy this stock but I am not because" _______ ( insert lame excuse because there always is one) receive their due influence.

    Best of luck

    Robert
    Feb 26, 2011. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble: Has This Stock's Story Ended? [View article]
    I wanted to follow up with my article. I still remain short BKS via short BKS March 17 Calls. We had quite the sell off while I was in NYC for the traders expo but it does not really surprise me (I didn't cover the short). We may see some profit taking by shorts next week but I still remain that there is no wind in the sails of this one. Looking for a test of single digits in price shortly.
    Feb 25, 2011. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Apple Stock, Buy Apple Call Options [View article]
    Generally the far OTM/month put options do not trade enough volume to provide a narrow spread. While a call write = a naked put mathematically during the trade they generally do not equal the same in transactional costs. This must be looked at before one can forgo a call write and simply switch over to naked puts.

    While a naked put is less risk than an outright long with a stock the use of anything beyond minimal leverage generally blows up retail and professional accounts given enough time. There are simply to many fat tails/black swans that happen to avoid it.

    Great article though Rocco

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Driving Apple? [View article]
    Great article Rocco,

    I think your spot on with the " news coverage" that many are subjected to on a daily basis. Talking heads with no skin in the game do not impress me. Investors who have informed themselves enough to put money on the line grab my attention more than some who are just looking to fill some time slot.

    Disc: no position with AAPL
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corinthian Colleges Is a Value Buy - Regardless of Education Rule Changes [View article]
    Hopefully I will get a chance after the traders expo next week to update and get the updated information on COCO up.

    I am still long and will be rolling over a lot of options tomorrow / Monday
    Feb 18, 2011. 01:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Your most welcome.

    It is a great book. I think anyone serious about investing should read it.

    I have not followed the names listed. I am currently short WTW large, TBL small, BKS small (but about to increase).

    Today is my birthday and I am going to NYC in a couple of days for the traders expo or I would have been happy to take a look at the names you listed.

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 18, 2011. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    How are you shorts doing with MTG lately.

    I have not heard much and thought I would check in. My short put strategy worked out well. One month of time decay later and the stock is now trading above the price of the article.

    This was not a "lucky" trade either. This is what I do day after day.

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 17, 2011. 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPG Photonics: Eye Popping Chart Due for a Pullback? [View article]
    $IPGP update.
    I remember reading a follow up article in Fortune magazine. In it was a picture that was some type of white powder (legal) substance.

    The article I read was about the fact that the picture used in the first one was not of the actual product. Fortune magazine reprinted a picture showing the real product with a short blurb about how they wanted to always stand on accuracy. I seriously doubt anyone could tell one picture from the other or if they could that they would care. This was over 20 years ago and I still remember it because I believed that Fortune magazine could be counted on for accuracy and if they did find an error they would very clearly make it know.

    I write my articles with the same desire to be accurate not only technically, but also in the spirit and understanding of the message. I want to clarify this article for accuracy.

    What I found in my study was a large amount of insider selling in the last 90 days. Upon further review of the sales I read in “Explanation of Responses” on the SEC form 4 that the largest amounts of the disposed stocks went into a trust that is designed for CEO Dr. Gapontsev's estate planning. This is a much different situation than what the surface review of the numbers indicate. Contrary to the appearance that the recent run-up in price was left on the table and missed by upper management it now appears that the assumption was in large part not correct. While technically my understanding of what happened may have been correct I think it is fair to say that I could have done a better job on that part of the article.
    The motivations of the sale/transfer of the stock does not change the chart pattern that led me to the stock in the first place but it does change my opinion of what management is thinking about the future of the company. If looking at the sales of management into the open market IPGP ranks relatively low compared to many companies I review. Considering the amount of shares still controlled by Dr. Gapontsev I am able to conclude something that often I am not. Namely that it appears that Dr. Gapontsev's interests are aligned with the investors.

    I am still short IPGP and I learned the reason for sales during trading hours today. I had covered much of my short position today but stopped upon reading further into the SEC filings. I do not want even the appearance that I would profit from anything that is not above board. I expect to continue to cover tomorrow depending on price action and after this update
    Feb 16, 2011. 11:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Options Strategy for China MediaExpress Holdings [View article]
    Hello,

    Well, the inability to find its way back above the 200 day moving average is not what I would call a strong buy signal to say the least. CCME may be a fraud and as I have said with other Chinese stocks they are often very good shorts. Accounting is lax at best and I am unaware of any Chinese "important" citizen going to prison over defrauding foreigners. At the same time the CR and MWR reports did not cry out high quality research to me in the least.

    Your job is to figure out what is the likely outcome and it appears you believe the stock will fall based on revelations about the accounting. Ok, so then the next step is to figure out if the risk of not being correct is worth the payoff if you are correct. Based on my understanding of your comment your not sure or at least you are having trouble quantifying it. You can look at others and see how they performed but the sample size for strictly Chinese stocks is way to small as far as I know. If we all agree that there is enough of a difference in expected outcome verses fraud allegations against American companies then we need to exclude the outcomes of American companies.
    One thing for sure is there are always more trades that come along and worrying about missing one when it is not clear what your edge is seems to be a waste of resources. So yes, if you do not have a clear edge over your counter-party then I would just watch and see what happens. You will learn more from it by not being a part of it and that may set you up to notice things that you may not otherwise see in the next one. AND, there is always a next one...

    Respectfully,

    Robert
    Feb 16, 2011. 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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