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Robert Weinstein  

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  • Two Unloved Stocks Ready to Break Higher [View article]
    Thank you and yes, I actually talk about this issue on many of the stocks that I write articles about.

    What many do not understand (even some who you would think should) is that a stock and a company are not one in the same. They are talked about as if they are the same all the time and perhaps that creates much of the confusion. Stocks are only correlated to the company they represent. This correlation changes in various degrees depending on the company. For example GE which I have traded for years had a very high correlation between the stock and the company. Basically most stocks that are trading in a range for a long time can be assumed to have a high correlation. Than when the financial crisis took hold GE fell due to GE capital and ever since it have moved around based on any given days news. CLWR and COCO have a lot of emotion tied up into the stock. There is a lot of difference in opinion on the valuations and a lot of "weak hands" trading the stock. This can cause the correlation to become weak and regardless of what the company is worth the stock is going to move based on what the talking bobble heads have to say that day.
    Don't get me wrong I live and breath this because if the correlation was pure and no emotion was involved I would not be able to make a living trading. I would further argue that most investing is based on the belief that one can figure out better than another what the stock will do because of what the company will do.
    Mar 4, 2011. 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two for Tuesday: Short Ideas [View article]
    Hello Carl,

    Thanks for your comment and reading my article.

    Even though we are on opposite sides of the fence I really think your comment is well thought out.

    CDE is a tricky stock to be shorting but I am pretty quick on my feet and shorting strong stocks is what I do for a living. So I am very comfortable in this space.

    It would appear that some shorts did get caught with their pants down as the stock was bid up in after hours in what appeared to be short covering. I added to my short in what I like to call "the second mouse gets the cheese". We will find out if that was the best choice or not soon enough. I would rather be selling option premium with CDE though and may just cover the stock and deploy the capital by writing front month calls.
    Mar 3, 2011. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two for Tuesday: Short Ideas [View article]

    One sure could and limit the risk if price works against you.

    I shorted CDE into the close today for an overnight trade.
    Mar 3, 2011. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Pandora, Will Clear Channel Crush Sirius? [View article]
    Great Article Rocco,

    I just canceled my renewal with SIRI. Maybe it was my XM radio (only about two years old and the top end that they sold) but CNBC was delayed about 30 seconds give or take. I ended up subscribing to CNBC online.

    I use either FM or Pandora online radio now and never use XM anymore. I am going to sell my xm radio on ebay in the next few days.
    Mar 3, 2011. 09:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two for Tuesday: Short Ideas [View article]
    Hello Marlowe,

    Thanks for reading my article. No such thing as a dumb question. Much easier to ask someone who knows than to spend a lot of time trying to figure it out.

    My article is about selling CALLS not puts. shorting/selling naked calls is somewhat similar to being short the stock. Shorting puts would be like being long the stock.

    If you have any further questions feel free to ask.


    Mar 2, 2011. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two for Tuesday: Short Ideas [View article]
    Hello Jinmei,

    Well I guess if you really want me to I can. The front month 34 calls are unchanged and the 35 calls are up five cents. It is not really what I would call a losing trade at this point. This is after spending most of the day in the black.

    I made a small amount on CDE stock yesterday (I didn't trade it today) so it is hard for me to say I was wrong on that one as well.

    Additionally making money or losing money on a trade does not make one "right or wrong". If there is an edge and you take it I think your right and if not than your wrong.

    For someone that was very aggressive and didn't short the calls the stock is only up about 68 cents from the open yesterday as well.

    The other one TWI, is lower from the open yesterday too.


    Mar 2, 2011. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Building a Brand: A Core Similarity Between Demand Media and Sirius XM [View article]
    Once again great article Rocco. Your writing style really brings out the essence with clarity.
    I can't say that I want to be long SIRI when I know that this month I will cancel my account for Pandora which is free but you have me thinking about the stock.

    Goodluck with SIRI
    Mar 2, 2011. 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Short the Stock, Hedge Your Timing to Avoid Getting Squeezed [View article]
    Hello David,

    Thanks for reading my article and taking the time to comment about $NFLX.

    I found that the price of $NFLX was overpriced relative to the value of the company. The price of $NFLX combined with the option premium gave me a low risk sell call signal. At the same time I do not think the company is going out of business so the bonds look attractive to me. Especially so as a hedge. While many retail traders may not find using bonds as a hedge I believe the audience of SA is beyond retail traders. Looking at some of my followers in SA and twitter I see many of them are involved with hedge funds and other asset management.


    Feb 28, 2011. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Let Apple Keep Secrets [View article]
    Great article Rocco

    You articulate your argument very well. While I would tend to agree that $AAPL is not priced to perfection yet I think it is getting close enough that I would not want to invest in it.

    If put to the question I would have to be short simply because I think the downside risk is bigger than what is being priced into the stock. It currently is a great company and is obviously hitting on all eight cylinders but what if that suddenly stops? What if they miss on earnings?

    A PE of about 20 suggests growth is being priced into the stock. As long as that growth continues all is fine on the Western Front. But they better not drop the ball or it may be hard to find buyers when everyone and their brother already owns this one.

    I know these things can never happen to $AAPL because "this time it's different" but it will be interesting to see what happens in the next year with Apple.

    DISC: I have no position with AAPL
    Feb 28, 2011. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking to Short Demand Media as Google Begins New Attack on Content Farms [View article]
    Hello David,

    Thank you for reading my article and taking the time to comment.

    You are probably right, maybe Google was "just kidding" when they posted this blog posting.

    While $goog did update the blog with the 2/24/11 update maybe they "forgot" about $DMD. Maybe even the 300+ updates a year that Google does to their ranking system won't have an impact at all either.

    You are always free to buy the stock and/or call options. Please feel free to come back and comment with how that works out for you.


    Feb 28, 2011. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble: Has This Stock's Story Ended? [View article]
    I am unsure where to begin. Just about every sentence demonstrates a lack of understanding.
    1. I never suggested that there is "no place even for one major bookseller..." Borders is not going away they are restructuring. When they complete that process which it appears they will given that GE financing appears to be on board they will be in a position to be more competitive against BKS. I don't believe BKS is going out of business I believe the stock will continue to fall. How much I read does not impact BKS regardless but I guess when you do not have facts you resort to personal attacks.
    2. They dropped the dividend because the earnings do not support it. Big surprise there ??? Who cares what they "invest it" in. They are no longer making enough to pay it.
    3. Yes the company is still making money in some of the divisions and overall. Those that believe this will continue and the the company is going to do well are what is known as "counter-parties" to my trade. Good luck with that.
    4. Clear vision?? really, are they leaders in online sales? nope. Are they leaders in e-books? nope. How about retail? you can say what you want there but they are losing money in that division which is part of a shrinking market. Perhaps a pair of glasses may help that "vision"...
    4. "I have 0 stocks of B&N.." Really?? so what your saying is that you feel so strongly about the vision and the investment made with the dividends and the current price of the stock that you have invested how much of your own capital in BKS??? right.... zero
    I am proud to say that I eat my own cooking. I believe readers on SA can figure out who is more creditable, people who actually put up their own capital to back their words or people that only suggest others should.
    People who write "I believe YOU should buy this stock but I am not because" _______ ( insert lame excuse because there always is one) receive their due influence.

    Best of luck

    Feb 26, 2011. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble: Has This Stock's Story Ended? [View article]
    I wanted to follow up with my article. I still remain short BKS via short BKS March 17 Calls. We had quite the sell off while I was in NYC for the traders expo but it does not really surprise me (I didn't cover the short). We may see some profit taking by shorts next week but I still remain that there is no wind in the sails of this one. Looking for a test of single digits in price shortly.
    Feb 25, 2011. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Apple Stock, Buy Apple Call Options [View article]
    Generally the far OTM/month put options do not trade enough volume to provide a narrow spread. While a call write = a naked put mathematically during the trade they generally do not equal the same in transactional costs. This must be looked at before one can forgo a call write and simply switch over to naked puts.

    While a naked put is less risk than an outright long with a stock the use of anything beyond minimal leverage generally blows up retail and professional accounts given enough time. There are simply to many fat tails/black swans that happen to avoid it.

    Great article though Rocco


    Feb 22, 2011. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Driving Apple? [View article]
    Great article Rocco,

    I think your spot on with the " news coverage" that many are subjected to on a daily basis. Talking heads with no skin in the game do not impress me. Investors who have informed themselves enough to put money on the line grab my attention more than some who are just looking to fill some time slot.

    Disc: no position with AAPL
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corinthian Colleges Is a Value Buy - Regardless of Education Rule Changes [View article]
    Hopefully I will get a chance after the traders expo next week to update and get the updated information on COCO up.

    I am still long and will be rolling over a lot of options tomorrow / Monday
    Feb 18, 2011. 01:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment