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Robert Weinstein

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  • Look at iGate for a Holiday Bargain [View article]
    Well the quick answer is every investor thinks the market is wrong or why would you put your dollars at risk? Most people do get it wrong and find out the market was correct but that is a whole different conversation.

    Best to you
    Dec 2 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look at iGate for a Holiday Bargain [View article]
    I did and I read it from the SEC filing. What I read was the filing of a secondary and not the issue of one. Big difference because being able to issue more stock and actually issuing it is two different things. I would guess that management is very fully aware of how the market is feeling the love of a dilution and will move slow and careful going forward.

    The real important thing is that they are cash rich and are generating a lot of free cash flow so the only reason why they would actually do an offering is if they want to buy something like the company that is getting them in so much trouble. Me and my magic 8 ball have about as good of a guess as anyone outside of the board room but my gut tells me no deal goes forward without the ability to sell the benefits to the share holders on how it adds value and is a net positive. So far that clearly has not been done so don't be to surprised when the talks break down and iGate steps back OR they have put forth some very good reasons why it will make everyday sunny and every other day will be Friday for now on.....
    Best to you
    Dec 2 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP and Obama - What Was Really Said? [View article]
    Yes i would agree with your statement. But that is not what I wrote or the meaning of what I wrote.

    I believe the Administration and BP came to an agreement that included an understanding of how much oil is spilling out per day and how much each barrel the fine will be. Along with that agreement may include such things as a fixed cost for the Coast Guard and other costs that could be debated later but both sides agreed upon now. The most important thing is that BP has not "paid" $20B or agreed to pay $20B. They agreed to put up $20B in escrow to pay out civil torts caused by BP. There is a big difference between the two. Furthermore, it is not just executives that need to worry about criminal liabilities. If the company was found guilty of a felony that could be problematic for the company and the defense contracts.

    One thing I do firmly believe and you are free to disagree is that BP received a benifit for doing what they did. Since it would appear that BP had the upper hand in this case (as bad as that may first appear) or at least the less of the lower hands BP in my opinion recieved some loss prevention to be willing to agree to handing over money now rather than later and paying for unemployment insurance for people that are not out of work as a direct result of BP.

    The last thing the Administration wanted was to own this mess. The very real possibility that BP USA would file for protection under the bankruptcy law would mean that Obama now becomes the owner of a brand new oil well in the gulf that just happens to be pouring out oil into the water. At least that would be the public's perception once the federal government took over which they would have to if BP stopped working on it.

    If BP walked away the company would be downsized by about 50% which also happens to be were the stock was trading at a few days ago. Regardless, if the leak doesn't get stopped soon and/or the civil liabilities pile up to the tipping point of being more than BP USA is worth then a bankruptcy filing can be expected as well.

    BP structured the escrow deposits in such a fashion that BP USA would be funding it and BP could remain isolated in case the thing falls apart. Like many things coming out of the media this story in my opinion is not as big as it is presented and within 12 months BP will be on its way to recovery.

    I am still short OCT puts
    Jun 19 01:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore the Hype: Hauppauge Digital Continues to Lose Money [View article]
    In almost all cases I would totally agree with you. This is one case that is actually different. Take a look at the press release link on the bottom of their website. The last press release as of the time of this reply was October 27, 2008 www.hauppauge.com/site...

    It demonstrates a lack of attention to detail. Was the release of the "Apple hoopla" not worthy of a add on? There are other warning signs like the company history of timely annual meetings and the whole thing just does not pass the "smell test" for me. Normally a website would not come into play at all unless it is so far under the bar of being professionally maintained in my opinion that people should be made aware of it.

    Disclosure: no position in HAUP
    May 18 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore the Hype: Hauppauge Digital Continues to Lose Money [View article]
    Perhaps if you read the whole article and all the comments you may not be so surprised. My article did NOT use a comparison from previous quarter to this quarter. What are you, the same person with two accounts?

    I was simply responding to a comment who DID use the statement "Last three months data vs previous three months data"

    Your stock is at the low of day at 2.93, best of luck to you
    May 17 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore the Hype: Hauppauge Digital Continues to Lose Money [View article]
    ekaami,

    As I stated in the response that you may have meant "same quarter last year" BUT you said
    "Last three months data vs previous three months data"

    Even your response trying to correct me uses the dates of 3/31/09.

    While you may be pulling your numbers from yahoo, I am pulling my numbers from the SEC website. Also I provided the date for clarity.

    I am sorry your stock price is going down (as of this post) but there is no need to lash out at me and accuse me of any wrong doing when you are the one who appears to be having trouble with this.
    Here is the link sec.gov/Archives/edgar... and you will see that sales are ~17.9

    Maybe learn to read a 10Q and do more DD before buying a stock would be a good idea. Using Yahoo finance is maybe the the best choice when real money is on the line. Also perhaps if your going to make a public statement make sure what your saying is what you mean.
    Lastly, They once again lost money and the Euro appears like its going to be a serious drag on the next half of the year while the next half of the year is traditionally the weaker half (HAUPs words not mine about the seasonality of sales). So if you can not figure out why this stock is a dog and I am sorry but I do not feel I am going to be able to explain it to you in any better terms. The bid is just under $3 as I submit this. It would not surprise me to see it under $2 this week. But of course I don't know what price it will trade at as I can not predict the future only the odds that it was a good short in which it was for me.

    Best of luck
    May 17 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore the Hype: Hauppauge Digital Continues to Lose Money [View article]
    ekaami,

    It would appear that your cherry picking your data and your data appears to be wrong at that. Also your link doesn't work for me at least. My data is from the SEC website as linked above

    1. Sales 3/31/10 ~$13.9mil in 12/31/09 it was ~17.9mil That would appear to be a decrease not an increase as you suggest
    2. GProfit 3/31/10 ~3.8M vs. 12.31/09 ~ 5.2M Again this appears to be a decrease not an incrase as you suggest
    I was going to do the rest but it feels to be a waste of time at this point. Maybe you only have the basic top and bottom lines wrong which are the only two that matter anyway so there is really no point in going further.

    Perhaps you mean that the numbers are an improvement over the same period last year. Well I would respond that they SHOULD be after all they bought a company and they should see an increase in revenue. The evidence suggest based on HAUP reports that the numbers are in part based on a dollar that was very much weaker in the last quarter than it is today. Absent some material change in the top line, costs, or exchange rate it can be expected that the next period will be worse than the last period in which they continued once again to lose money. It is the HAUP statement that the last six months are traditionally the best for the company.

    It is a common investor mistake to overlook all the evidence that does not agree with an opinion and to focus on what is available to support the opinion. Bottom line for HAUP is that they once again lost money and appear that they will again in the next reporting period. Best of luck to you
    May 16 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Shorting Treasury 30 Year Bonds via Treasury Futures [View article]
    Hello outtafavr,

    Thanks for your comment and your not alone in your feelings about the market in this or others too.

    I also believe that the US markets are not free from being manipulated but I also think that relative to other countries the US operates in either the fairest or as fair as any other country. Also while 'big money' does have advantages there are also advantages to being smaller.

    Best to you

    Robert



    On Aug 19 04:56 PM outtafavr wrote:

    > The market for this product is not free. Auctions of this product
    > are manipulated and the manipulators readily acknowledge their wrongdoing,
    > carrying out their crime on a grand scale. How can you justify any
    > positions, long or short, in such a lawless environment?
    Aug 23 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Shorting Treasury 30 Year Bonds via Treasury Futures [View article]
    Hello Bruno,

    Thanks for your comment and its a good question as there are many ways to gain exposure to Treasury bonds

    I can just as easily trade futures as I can equities with my 'universal trading account' so while I generally(90/10) stick with equities I am short the Treasury 30 year bonds via the ECBOT treasury futures/ futures options (as I write this I am currently short naked future call options).

    I will often take a position that I want to be in for more than a few days via naked options as it offers lower risk than taking an outright position and I am able to gain the time premium if I am going to be in the underlining anyway. This of course is offset somewhat by not being able to get the full profit potential and is not a strategy that is appropriate for those without a full understanding of the details of options and their pricing.

    I have also looked at the ETFs and again if I was to gain exposure via ETFs I would do so writing naked options as I am risk averse and willing to give up home runs and take singles and doubles. (not that I am suggesting anyone else trade options)

    Respectfully,

    Robert


    On Aug 19 02:55 PM Bruno Brasil wrote:

    > Hi Robert,
    >
    > I am heavily shorting treasury using TBT, which is not a perfect
    > instrument. Can you be more specific on the other instruments you
    > use?
    Aug 23 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Shorting Treasury 30 Year Bonds via Treasury Futures [View article]
    Hello Steve,

    Thank you for your comments.

    Not any more or less 'nervous' than I am with any of my other longer term trades (non day trade). I could go on much further in my reasoning but it literally could have turned into a short book.

    I have been short via writing calls against the futures contracts since early July and have already booked some gains. I was asked in the chat room I spend my days why I was short the bonds and that's what motivated me to write the post.

    I think you bring up some interesting points about the stock market and I also for the most part not bullish in equities. The relatively inverse relationship in my opinion could decouple or minimally loosen up greatly upon the Chinese (or others) not coming to the table to buy.

    It will be an interesting week coming up

    Best to you

    Robert


    On Aug 18 05:34 PM Steve Pasq wrote:

    > You must be nervous with all the explaining about the obvious reasons
    > the treasury is issuing more and more debt. I'm long because your
    > side is pretty crowded right now. Also 4% interest is better than
    > the negative numbers associated with equities over the past few years.
    >
    >
    > Frankly I believe stocks could be headed to new lows and long term
    > treasuries are headed to new highs. It might seem hard to believe
    > but look at the charts. All the reasoning and fundamental analysis
    > doesn't change the fact that stocks are in a long-term down trend
    > and the long bond is in a long-term up trend. And even having a
    > liberal nut in the white house doesn't change that.
    Aug 23 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Love Synaptics at This Price [View article]
    Yes, HURN is Huron Consulting and the change of company name is a result of editorial changes from my original submission by SeekingAlpha staff.

    HURN was actually brought to my attention by another trader of Friday afternoon asking my thoughts on it. My advise at the time was to take a pass on it (it was trading about 19.10 in AH trading at the time I looked at it)

    I would agree that it was oversold IF (and its a big if) more shoes don't fall. It has been my experience when seeing this kind of fallout that more bad news often happens which knocks the wind right out of any chance of recovery.

    I also expect that lawsuits will keep executives very busy in the next year or so as well as add a legal costs to the bottom line for at least the next year regardless if they don't have more bad news. Not to mention payments for possible settlements. I would not be surprised to hear about a press release saying that money is being set aside to pay for a settlement.

    That adds up to a stock that I do not find the risk vs reward ratio to be good enough for me to invest it at this time. I do think it will be interesting to follow it and see what happens.

    Best to you
    Aug 2 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synaptics F4Q09 Earnings Transcript [View article]
    Synaptics (SYNA) went on big time sale Friday.

    Wow, SYNA was just hammered Friday in ways that you don’t often see in a stock. The only stock that I know of that had what I consider to be bigger action was HURN and HURN is restating earnings and booted some of the top brass (without pay packages).

    What did SYNA do that was so bad as to cause the stock to fall more than 30% in one single day?? Did they miss earnings? (no beat earnings) Did revenue fall (nope) How about some accounting problems (nope), ok I know what it must be. Perhaps they are having trouble getting financing to keep cash flow from drying up? Not at all, they actually retired much of their debt in the last year and have plenty of cash (interest earned relatively went down with interest rates but went UP as a result of more cash on the books).
    The crime that SYNA did was they guided lower than expected in terms of revenue. They also committed what the market on Friday called a felony by stating that earnings may be flat due to headwinds in the overall economy. This is a company that is adding staff to grow the R&D and is still able to say that earnings will not be going down.

    These are crimes that I feel the jury of the marketplace will soon forgive. SYNA is a company that has growing sales and a non sky high PE that is not only very reasonable to me but cheap for a growing tech company in great financial shape.

    The CEO is stepping down as was announced during the conference call and while that never gives me a warm feeling inside its an insider that is taking the helm and appears that it should be a smooth and planned change in leadership.

    SYNA generates a lot of income from the touch screens that are on mobile devises including phones and that is what I consider a very good market to be in right now. SYNA makes touch screens for laptop computers as well but at this very moment in time is not the main driver of profits. I for one happen to think that touch screens for laptops is going to continue to become more and more prevalent as prices come down and awareness of the usefulness of them becomes more common.

    Those that follow me know me as a “short” and its well earned. I short more than 95% of my trades and when SYNA first went on my radar that’s what I had in mind to do here. As I started looking at it more and more I realized that for me it would be too risky to short this stock. The selling on Friday appeared to me to be more panic and less about the value of the company being less. Basically in a nutshell this stock was on sale because people where selling for the reason that they were scared that the price would keep going down. This of course turns into a snowball effect and can get crazy at times as it did with SYNA on Friday.

    While it doesn’t “feel” natural to go against the crowd that’s were the biggest gains can be had. The “trick” is to be selective and not be in a hurry to get in as the market can go much further and stay there for longer than most people understand. I feel that SYNA did go much further than is warranted and that value investors will start to see a bargain here.

    The other part of SYNA and its a very important part in getting me to invest in it is that the short interest on this stock is nothing less than HUGE. With over 40% short interest by the latest numbers this stock is already shorted heavily by my standards. When stocks have this large of a short interest they have the ability to shoot off like bottle rockets when buying does come in. As value investors pick up shares on the cheap sending prices higher the shorts start to cover knowing that the first ones to do so are the ones that get to buy back to cover cheap. This buying causes the prices to move higher which brings in the short term trend followers (traders) which causes more shorts to cover. Rinse and repeat this process and a stock that is down 30% one day can move higher 20% the very next day as well as move higher over time beyond the price of the day before the fall.

    I of course do not predict the future just the odds. I feel that the odds are that unless something negative happens that the price of SYNA is currently on sale and that this sale will be ending soon.
    Aug 1 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash for Clunkers: What Can the Government Buy You Next? [View article]
    Does anyone give any thought to what this does to our economy???

    Look, I understand some in DC would say don’t worry about taking away all the cheap affordable cars off the market for people who may not be able to afford a more expensive car. After all we will give the poor people money and handouts and they will be fine.

    I for one am not fine with this and not only is it a total waste of money but its filled with unintended consequences like distorting the used car market. How many jobs (think mechanics, used car lots, auto parts shops and salvage yards) will be LOST as a result of this giveaway. A a very minimum lost wages and lower income for people that service used cars will happen. While no numbers yet exist and maybe hard to calculate I have to wonder what the net result is for AMERICAN jobs/income. After all some of the cars being bought are foreign made cars and most of the jobs/income being lost are American jobs.

    As I understand it many of the new ‘purchases’ would have happened anyway with our without the government handout(Duh).

    Whats gonna be the next great idea? How about we start burning down houses that were built before 1975 with less than 10 inches of insulation if you buy a new energy star house. That would give firefighters plenty to practice on (first controlling the burning and then putting the fires out in a controlled method) as well as take a lot of houses out of the marketplace that dont have as high of conservation levels.

    You could give the new home buyer a $25K credit and that would make buying a new home more afforable. That would put a lot of people to work building new homes and get rid of a lot of excess homes on the market.

    You just need to ignore the facts that it would raise the deficit (wont it be great to tell the children how their future was mortgaged away so we could destroy cars and homes) and lower the total assets that America owns but lets not get facts in the way of change.

    The real scarry thing as I write this is wondering how many people will read the home burning concept and actually think it might be a solution to the housing problem......

    DC should rename itself to UC (Unintended Consequences)

    Want to see what they are doing with the cars to make sure no one drives a “Clunker” again. take a look at the youtube video. If your a taxpayer and this doesn't make you mad than I don’t think your paying attention.

    youtube.com/watch?...
    Aug 1 01:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Clunkers' Needs More Cash [View article]
    Does anyone give any thought to what this does to our economy???

    Look, I understand some in DC would say don’t worry about taking away all the cheap affordable cars off the market for people who may not be able to afford a more expensive car. After all we will give the poor people money and handouts and they will be fine.

    I for one am not fine with this and not only is it a total waste of money but its filled with unintended consequences like distorting the used car market. How many jobs (think mechanics, used car lots, auto parts shops and salvage yards) will be LOST as a result of this giveaway. A a very minimum lost wages and lower income for people that service used cars will happen. While no numbers yet exist and maybe hard to calculate I have to wonder what the net result is for AMERICAN jobs/income. After all some of the cars being bought are foreign made cars and most of the jobs/income being lost are American jobs.

    As I understand it many of the new ‘purchases’ would have happened anyway with our without the government handout(Duh).

    Whats gonna be the next great idea? How about we start burning down houses that were built before 1975 with less than 10 inches of insulation if you buy a new energy star house. That would give firefighters plenty to practice on (first controlling the burning and then putting the fires out in a controlled method) as well as take a lot of houses out of the marketplace that dont have as high of conservation levels.

    You could give the new home buyer a $25K credit and that would make buying a new home more afforable. That would put a lot of people to work building new homes and get rid of a lot of excess homes on the market.

    You just need to ignore the facts that it would raise the deficit (wont it be great to tell the children how their future was mortgaged away so we could destroy cars and homes) and lower the total assets that America owns but lets not get facts in the way of change.

    The real scarry thing as I write this is wondering how many people will read the home burning concept and actually think it might be a solution to the housing problem......

    DC should rename itself to UC (Unintended Consequences)

    Want to see what they are doing with the cars to make sure no one drives a “Clunker” again. take a look at the youtube video. If your a taxpayer and this doesn't make you mad than I don’t think your paying attention.

    youtube.com/watch?...
    Aug 1 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle [View article]
    Does anyone give any thought to what this does to our economy???

    Look, I understand some in DC would say don’t worry about taking away all the cheap affordable cars off the market for people who may not be able to afford a more expensive car. After all we will give the poor people money and handouts and they will be fine.

    I for one am not fine with this and not only is it a total waste of money but its filled with unintended consequences like distorting the used car market. How many jobs (think mechanics, used car lots, auto parts shops and salvage yards) will be LOST as a result of this giveaway. A a very minimum lost wages and lower income for people that service used cars will happen. While no numbers yet exist and maybe hard to calculate I have to wonder what the net result is for AMERICAN jobs/income. After all some of the cars being bought are foreign made cars and most of the jobs/income being lost are American jobs.

    As I understand it many of the new ‘purchases’ would have happened anyway with our without the government handout(Duh).

    Whats gonna be the next great idea? How about we start burning down houses that were built before 1975 with less than 10 inches of insulation if you buy a new energy star house. That would give firefighters plenty to practice on (first controlling the burning and then putting the fires out in a controlled method) as well as take a lot of houses out of the marketplace that dont have as high of conservation levels.

    You could give the new home buyer a $25K credit and that would make buying a new home more afforable. That would put a lot of people to work building new homes and get rid of a lot of excess homes on the market.

    You just need to ignore the facts that it would raise the deficit (wont it be great to tell the children how their future was mortgaged away so we could destroy cars and homes) and lower the total assets that America owns but lets not get facts in the way of change.

    The real scarry thing as I write this is wondering how many people will read the home burning concept and actually think it might be a solution to the housing problem......

    DC should rename itself to UC (Unintended Consequences)

    Want to see what they are doing with the cars to make sure no one drives a “Clunker” again. take a look at the youtube video. If your a taxpayer and this doesn't make you mad than I don’t think your paying attention.

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    Aug 1 01:47 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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