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Robert Weinstein  

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  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Your most welcome.

    It is a great book. I think anyone serious about investing should read it.

    I have not followed the names listed. I am currently short WTW large, TBL small, BKS small (but about to increase).

    Today is my birthday and I am going to NYC in a couple of days for the traders expo or I would have been happy to take a look at the names you listed.

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 18, 2011. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    How are you shorts doing with MTG lately.

    I have not heard much and thought I would check in. My short put strategy worked out well. One month of time decay later and the stock is now trading above the price of the article.

    This was not a "lucky" trade either. This is what I do day after day.

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 17, 2011. 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPG Photonics: Eye Popping Chart Due for a Pullback? [View article]
    $IPGP update.
    I remember reading a follow up article in Fortune magazine. In it was a picture that was some type of white powder (legal) substance.

    The article I read was about the fact that the picture used in the first one was not of the actual product. Fortune magazine reprinted a picture showing the real product with a short blurb about how they wanted to always stand on accuracy. I seriously doubt anyone could tell one picture from the other or if they could that they would care. This was over 20 years ago and I still remember it because I believed that Fortune magazine could be counted on for accuracy and if they did find an error they would very clearly make it know.

    I write my articles with the same desire to be accurate not only technically, but also in the spirit and understanding of the message. I want to clarify this article for accuracy.

    What I found in my study was a large amount of insider selling in the last 90 days. Upon further review of the sales I read in “Explanation of Responses” on the SEC form 4 that the largest amounts of the disposed stocks went into a trust that is designed for CEO Dr. Gapontsev's estate planning. This is a much different situation than what the surface review of the numbers indicate. Contrary to the appearance that the recent run-up in price was left on the table and missed by upper management it now appears that the assumption was in large part not correct. While technically my understanding of what happened may have been correct I think it is fair to say that I could have done a better job on that part of the article.
    The motivations of the sale/transfer of the stock does not change the chart pattern that led me to the stock in the first place but it does change my opinion of what management is thinking about the future of the company. If looking at the sales of management into the open market IPGP ranks relatively low compared to many companies I review. Considering the amount of shares still controlled by Dr. Gapontsev I am able to conclude something that often I am not. Namely that it appears that Dr. Gapontsev's interests are aligned with the investors.

    I am still short IPGP and I learned the reason for sales during trading hours today. I had covered much of my short position today but stopped upon reading further into the SEC filings. I do not want even the appearance that I would profit from anything that is not above board. I expect to continue to cover tomorrow depending on price action and after this update
    Feb 16, 2011. 11:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Options Strategy for China MediaExpress Holdings [View article]
    Hello,

    Well, the inability to find its way back above the 200 day moving average is not what I would call a strong buy signal to say the least. CCME may be a fraud and as I have said with other Chinese stocks they are often very good shorts. Accounting is lax at best and I am unaware of any Chinese "important" citizen going to prison over defrauding foreigners. At the same time the CR and MWR reports did not cry out high quality research to me in the least.

    Your job is to figure out what is the likely outcome and it appears you believe the stock will fall based on revelations about the accounting. Ok, so then the next step is to figure out if the risk of not being correct is worth the payoff if you are correct. Based on my understanding of your comment your not sure or at least you are having trouble quantifying it. You can look at others and see how they performed but the sample size for strictly Chinese stocks is way to small as far as I know. If we all agree that there is enough of a difference in expected outcome verses fraud allegations against American companies then we need to exclude the outcomes of American companies.
    One thing for sure is there are always more trades that come along and worrying about missing one when it is not clear what your edge is seems to be a waste of resources. So yes, if you do not have a clear edge over your counter-party then I would just watch and see what happens. You will learn more from it by not being a part of it and that may set you up to notice things that you may not otherwise see in the next one. AND, there is always a next one...

    Respectfully,

    Robert
    Feb 16, 2011. 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPG Photonics: Eye Popping Chart Due for a Pullback? [View article]
    Hello Vassquat,

    Thank you for reading my article and taking the time and effort to comment.

    You articulate the advantages of the company very well and I will not dispute any of your comment. You very well may make a lot of money being long the stock and I wish you the very best in doing so.

    My article is about the corilation between the company and the stock. Many think of these two things as being one in the same. They are not. The easiest way for me to explain this is that a stock can move up 2% and then down 2% (or more) in a day compared to the day before. That means the value of the stock moved from peak to valley 4%. It is crazy to think that the value of a company is really moving that much on any given day and I don't believe companies do. What I study is the correlation between the stock and the company. When the correlation is incorrect I make a trade.
    I would guess that you will be in IPGP long after me and I wish you the best of luck with your investment. I am still short (I have decreased on dips and increased on moves higher. It has basically been an ATM machine for the past couple days as the price keeps moving very fast and hard)

    Respectfully,

    Robert
    Feb 16, 2011. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Hello Stonesthrow,

    Monday and Tuesday were not my typical trading days. My Boys are cub scouts and the annual pinewood derby was on Tuesday. They wanted to do well and wanted dad to help so I took off early both days.

    I covered some JDSU in pre-market when it was down with a gain. I then shorted again after the open with the move higher. This part is typical of my trading. Later in the day I covered my position due to leaving early even though I would have otherwise left part of the trade overnight (once it was below the open and the previous close it was looking lower as the spell was broken for the long genie). So no it did not shake me out but had it gone a lot further it could have. IPGP which I also just wrote on did shake me out of some of the trade (I am still short IPGP).
    I would suggest trading smaller size if you feel any emotion at all. Getting a pulse and or heart monitor will help you see when your body starts to make changes (long before you "feel" it). Once your system goes into flight or fight mode you can not do what "feels" correct or more often than not you will make the wrong call.

    BUT YES, if I was only focused on one thing I too even though I know how to deal with it want it to happen fast. Luckily I have about 500 things going on at once and my bigger "problem" is keeping track of all the stocks I am looking at (I have 13 monitors in front of me)

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 16, 2011. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Hello Gotropical,

    I gain no satisfaction from you losing money (or potential gains depending on your point of view).

    I do have a lot of respect for someone who makes a second follow up post like you have. Most would rather just shoot the messenger than try to improve their trading/investing. There is a book I am going to get around reviewing at some point that is really well done and applies to this stock nicely. "Your money and your brain" does a fantastic job of explaining why a stock can do what it does. More importantly why at the worst possible time to hold on people will believe the party will never end. Take a look at it and I have no doubts that it will be well worth the price paid.

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 15, 2011. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Hello JM,

    This is an article that explains why.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Feb 14, 2011. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Hello Midwest Guy,

    This article answers your question.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Feb 14, 2011. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    AF Officer,

    Thank you for reading my article and thank you for commenting. Thank you for your service as well.

    I take responsibility of my words and you are correct I should always try to improve. I use Dragon Naturally Speaking speech to text and it misses things like this(and many others).

    After a long day of building the worlds "fastest pinewood derby cars" with my boys( cub scouts) it would appear I was a bit tired while writing follow up comments.

    Thanks again,

    Robert
    Feb 14, 2011. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Hello Mistermarc0,

    I believe the time to worry about a trade is before putting it on not after. What happens on any one given trade should not impact you emotionally or your doing something wrong. So I am sorry to say but your wrong. I am not "sweating" my short and since I short strong stocks almost every single day I am very much in my comfort zone.
    I may have to take my lumps but the odds are in my favor. I stand by my opinion in the article.

    The real question so many that have left a comment need to be asking is who is going to buy at an even higher price than Friday with the thought that they are smarter than others who will come along and buy it at an even higher price?

    This euphoria that the stock will just continue higher and higher is why so many leave so much on the table. The stock is already priced in for fast growth. FFIV investors just had a taste of what happens when a growth stock keeps growing but not as fast as expected. If JDSU doesn't beat next quarter it is likely to go right back into the toilet. Regardless of the next quarter the real resistance is at $30 and even if it can push above it is likely to get pinned back at $30 because of Friday being option expiration. People will figure this out and take profits knowing that it is highly unlikely this goes above and is able to stay above $30 without a retrace.

    Good luck to you as well. Have a good week.

    Robert
    Feb 14, 2011. 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Hello Brightside,

    Thank you for reading my article and thank you for taking the time and effort to comment.

    Yes, I am really short the equity but thank you for your concern. I shorted in after hours and yes you can find out in real time when I "give up". I have a chat room and your welcome to join in (assuming your a nice person) regardless of your opinion or your position with JDSU or any other stock. Often times people will be on the opposite side of a trade as me in the chat. I have no problems with that as I believe most in the chat do not. Otherwise your welcome to read my journal and when I close out I will add it there as I do with my other trading.

    Best to you and your trading

    Robert
    Feb 13, 2011. 11:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    Hey John,

    What can I say. You are my favorite hater. You truly flatter me by what appears to be your signing up for SA just to comment on my articles. It is nice to know that someone finds me the most important person on SA to spent time reading and commenting on.

    You do understand that your on a website dedicated to enabling the non-traditional journalist an opinion on the markets right? I have to believe so. I also have to believe that you understand that every single article on SA was done for self interest. This logically leads me to the conclusion that you find me the most important to read and comment on.

    Thanks and best of trading to you.

    Robert
    Feb 13, 2011. 11:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Investors Are Way Too Excited [View article]
    That is a really good question. A question that I answer in another article. As fate would have it I submitted the other article before this one but this hit the wire first.

    If Seeking Alpha accepts my article on the option strategy I would expect it to hit within 24 hours. If not it will be available on my blog sometime tomorrow.
    Feb 13, 2011. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase: Promoting Gesture Recognition Technology [View article]
    Great article Barry,

    The technology does appear to be hot right now. I am unsure about you but I can't say that after growing up with "pong" and Atari "tank" that my boys have it tough with the video games they get to play.

    Based on the latest quarterly results JDSU may actually turn a profitable year going sometime soon. It will be interesting to see how long JDSU can maintain the margins. According to the 10-Q China is a big part of the growth which JDSU identified as a risk factor in the annual report.

    With insiders selling at a very fast pace and not one share bought by insiders in the last 12 months it doesn't create a high level of confidence that management believes the stock will continue higher. It looks like as recent as Friday another in a long list of SEC filings was made (Form 144) disclosing more insider sales. At least the one on Friday was small. The pace of selling in the last 12 months by insiders has accelerated recently though which I find very negative considering the run-up in the stock price.
    Feb 13, 2011. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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