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Robert Weinstein

 
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  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Hello vvvv,

    I guess so if you consider that my trade was underwater a total of about an hour since putting it on a three days ago failure. It is not how I measure it but two different opinions is what makes a market.

    I am not trading MTG based solely on technical or fundamental but a combination of both. Even if this trade was a loser or turns into a loser if you had done your research you would know what my accuracy rate is.

    If you follow me you may already know that I added to my long when the stock was trading near 8.50ish by shorting Feb 8 puts. I continue to monitor and have confidence in this trade.

    Best of luck to you

    RW
    Jan 26, 2011. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree Investors Jump Ship Too Early [View article]
    After what could be considered a brutal sell off CREE finally was able to regain somewhat of a footing yesterday. Closing above the open was a bullish sign and with the follow through today we may not have a bottom put in. If the weak hands are flushed out we should be able to see a retest of the high of the day on the 19th of just under 56. If the lows yesterday are taken out and closes lower I would be looking for lower prices to follow.
    Jan 25, 2011. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Kathy Lien's 'The Little Book of Currency Trading' [View article]
    Mr. Sizemore,

    Thank you for taking the time to comment and you bring up an important point.

    I would agree that forex may not be the ideal place for a trader to extract gains. Indeed I included in my review that more advanced concepts should be developed before trading. Many retail forex dealers give me a feeling that they are much like the bucket shops Jesse Livermore traded with (the landscape does appear to me to be improving for the retail trader though). At the same time forex does have some advantages. For example there is no pattern day trader rule so many people that are locked out of trading equities are able to look to forex as one alternative to "cut their teeth with".

    I think it is important to note that my review (and the book) is not about the merits of forex. My review is how well the author presented information and the completeness of the information. With that goal in mind I think this book is worth reading for someone who would like to get a primer on forex. I believe someone who does read the book is better informed than one that just forges ahead and tries to "figure out as they go" (like many do).

    "Is currency trading really a good idea for novice investors?" I would guess not, but I don't know any type of trading that is a good idea for novices. I believe, like anything that involves money, you better do your homework and be better than your counter-party or you will get your lunch eaten.

    Best

    RW
    Jan 23, 2011. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Follow up to my article:
    MTG held above the support and traded today mostly between the 200MA and the 60MA for a high of the day. while I would have preferred to not have it breach the 200MA again I opened a small net long position via selling Feb 9 puts right at the close. They go underwater at expiration if the price is below 8.51 but I will likely look to cover next week as I anticipate a retracement in price.

    Have a good weekend and best to all

    RW
    Jan 21, 2011. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Hello Mr. Armistead,

    Thank you for reading my article and for taking the time to post your comment. I will take a look at Radian shortly as well.

    It will be interesting to see if MTG tries to penetrate the 200 day moving average again today. Yesterday it provided support and we closed above it but rarely does a price make it through the first try although I too agree that the sell off is overdone and I came close to entering long slightly below 9 yesterday and will watch the price action.

    Best

    RW
    Jan 21, 2011. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read and comment on my article.

    I believe that for investors the only numbers that matters is the profit. past current and especially future as well as the likelyhood (think %) that they will continue.

    All other numbers including the top line are used to try to estimate what the profit will be going forward and the risk to ruin (goog having a low risk to ruin premium and MTG having a large premium)
    You may have a different opinion and that is fine

    Best

    RW
    Jan 21, 2011. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time and effort to read and comment on my article. I did not find a article that you wrote even after commenting on 850 others but perhaps you will provide the pleasure of reading on shortly.

    "You don't mention..." Well that is true. Perhaps your understanding of how the market auction pricing system works is limited but allow me to shine a light on it for you. News events such as a lawsuit and updates to financials (especially negative/repeatedly) get priced into a stock rather quickly (in some cases within 60-120 seconds like in the case of earnings of CREE two days ago) but normally fully within very few trading days when it does get digested slowly and beyond one day. Sometimes sir more is not better but simply a waste.

    This stock is priced to fail in my opinion and anything other will appreciate the stock and reward those that own it relative to yesterdays closing price if it does not fail. The sell off is a typical over reaction that I see on a daily basis and I am looking for an entry to get long. Your welcome to be my counter-party and in doing so you will get to experience what that feels like.

    Best to you and your trading (if any)

    RW
    Jan 21, 2011. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanometrics: Moving Up a Little Faster Than It Should? [View article]
    Hello Jerry,

    This is my follow up to your email as well as a follow up to several other comments.

    Firstly, I no longer have a position with NANO.

    A natural reaction when someone is committed to a position is to look for every possible thing that confirms the correctness of the position and to ignore anything that would dispute it. This may not be the biggest reason why people fail to realize the gains that they wish to get but I would rate it as one of the top reasons.

    My article starts out and ends the same way. That the blast off in price was unwarranted based on reason cited (some analyst paper on Intel that didn't even list NANO as the primary company).
    I see this day after day after day. Anyone who took the time to try to discredit me could have taken the time to see what my trading history is. I have a blog and would have been able to see that my performance on these types of trades is off the chart at over 95% (if you want to know the actual you can do the math) going back years (I have not been on SA anywhere near that long).
    To look for any possible unmeaning statistic that may not have been correct and ignore the message was truly a waste of time to the highest degree as well as sad as it doesn't help.

    Other points, my articles don't move markets. As much of a compliment it is that my words could move a stock I am not there yet. My motivation is to build my track record and credibility as a trader / investor. So I only post articles about stocks that I feel very comfortable with the direction the price will move. A look at the results of my articles I believe speaks for itself as they are spot on.
    - writing about a stock that you have a position in being stock manipulation when it includes full disclosure??? I think I will just let that one stand on it's own merits (Hint, Jim Crammer would be the first one locked up if that was illegal).

    Lastly, and most important. Never ever get emotional about stocks or money in general. It has been proven time and again to diminish decision making ability. If you find yourself uncomfortable in a trade you are not putting enough thought into the trade before making it and/or have to large of size on.

    Best to all and good luck with your trading in the future.

    RW
    Jan 20, 2011. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Networks: Why the Sell-Off After a Small Earnings Miss? [View article]
    Yes, I think it is fair to say that we all agree a sell off was in order for FFIV after the earnings. My main point and why I put it at the end was to say that the sell off yesterday was overdone. Indeed FFIV is up over $3 from the AH close and I covered some of my long as high as 111.97 so far which is over $4 above the close.(due to delays from the time I submit an article and the time it gets reviewed, edited, and published I completed my last overnight trade before this article hit the wire)
    It is rarely correct to sell into a panic unless your very early as stocks tend to retrace.
    As you may guess from my comment I did not miss out with FFIV and as I post my daily results usually you are free to take a look to see how it all turns out. As I write this I am looking for another long entry with FFIV

    Best

    RW
    Jan 20, 2011. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Offer a Buying Dip This Week? [View article]
    Thank you for your follow up comment.

    I think your point on and would guess most do not know about the time delay. I am also going to take your suggestion and will now include a statement similar to the one you suggest.

    Respectfully,

    RW
    Jan 19, 2011. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Offer a Buying Dip This Week? [View article]
    Thank you for reading and taking the time to comment.

    I understand your point and it does appear I am not really writing anything that is not known. Please note that my article was written Monday night before the market opened. SA can take up to two days to review, edit and publish articles. In the case of this one I was hoping that the article would be on the very short end of the scale in terms of being published as it would have been very timely had it been published by Tuesday Morning.

    Also, In the last hour of trading Tuesday I did follow through with my article and I bought a bull spread.

    I hope this comment clears up why I am still proud of my analysis and article.

    Best

    RW
    Jan 19, 2011. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanometrics: Moving Up a Little Faster Than It Should? [View article]
    Hello Mashdireza,

    Thank you for taking the time to read and comment on my article.

    It appears you have found a typo and I thank you for pointing it out. It is late but in the interest of accuracy allow me to make the following change

    Based on the 10-Q filed 11/12/10
    For the quarter ended 10/2/10 total revenue was 53,935,000 of which Intel sales accounted for 16.4% or about (54M*.164) which is about $8.85 Million. If Intel increased spending with NANO by 73% that would amount to (.73*8.85) an increase of about $6.46M
    Depending on the estimate this comes out to be about 10% and not the five as I suggested. I believe the mistake was due to AR % (11.3%) being moved into the spreadsheet and not the actual revenue for the quarter. I would also agree although not pointed out that if using the trailing last nine months the increase would be greater. Of course this is all based on Intel increasing by over 70% the amount spent with NANO. I still remain that the possibility as presented does not justify the rise in price but not everyone will agree and that is what makes a market.

    Respectfully,

    RW
    Jan 17, 2011. 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanometrics: Moving Up a Little Faster Than It Should? [View article]
    Hello Joseph,

    Thank you for reading my article and I hope you found it of some value.

    I shorted Jan 16 calls at an ave of 1.21 and NANO stock at 15.88 in many transactions. I offered Jan 17 calls but my offers where not lifted or I would also be short the 17s. IV really shot up with the trading volume so while I started with the stock the options appeared to offer the greatest reward relative to the risk so I ended the day with shorting calls.

    I found your profile very interesting. With all the Chinese reverse mergers etc.. I would guess your desk is piled pretty high with 10-Qs and other filings. With several hundred Chinese public companies my desk is starting to fill up.

    Respectfully,

    RW
    Jan 17, 2011. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanometrics: Moving Up a Little Faster Than It Should? [View article]
    Hello NVMI,

    Thanks for reading my article and thanks for asking.

    I do not have an opinion for NVMI at all either good or bad.

    I do wish you the very best with your options though. I like options and trade them a lot as I feel it is a great way to manage risk.

    Respectfully,

    RW
    Jan 17, 2011. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanometrics: Moving Up a Little Faster Than It Should? [View article]
    Hello Bob,

    Thanks again for your comment.

    My information mostly comes from company SEC filings but if you can provide a link to something more reliable I would be happy to take a look. Included with the facts is the sources including page numbers.

    I think the amount Intel MAY purchase IS exactly the point. It was in my opinion that the note to clients written about in the WSJ was the catalyst for the jump in the stock price online.wsj.com/article...

    No one including you or I knows what Intel will purchase from NANO this or next quarter(that surely would appear to be material insider knowledge not to be discussed publicly until it has been officially released). I used past filings to calculate the revenue generated from Intel from quarterly reports. Again if you have a better source I would be happy to read about it.
    In the SEC 10-Q(PDF format for page numbers) filing dated 11/12/10 for the quarter ending Oct 2, 2010:
    net revenue $44M p4
    Intel revenue 16.4% p19
    Intel revenue 20.3% (nine months ending Oct 2, 2010) p19

    Based on the 11/29/10 8-K filing with the SEC on page 6 includes the press release with BOLD TYPE as the headline "Nanometrics Announces $10 Million Share Repurchase Program" Further down as the last line of the third paragraph it includes "The Board’s primary goal in this new repurchase program is to offset
    shareholder dilution resulting from periodic grants of incentive options and restricted stock units"
    This appears to be the reason the stock has not tanked from all the insiders selling. This company is spending millions of dollars to keep the stock price propped up. Based on a closing price of 17.32 and the last 12 mos of 38 filings (100% sells) for a total of 1,156,453 shares sold NANO can expect to spend over $20 million to keep the stock propped up from insider selling(This is a company that lost $16.3 million based on the last annual report 10-Q dated 3//26/10 p24). Based on the latest last three months the stock selling by insiders has actually accelerated filings by the SEC for a total of 399,788 shares or almost 1.6 million shares annually by insiders (based on the last quarter and Fridays closing price it would take $27 million dollars to keep up with all the insider selling).
    As far as the assertion that the founders of the business Mr. Norman Coates and Mr. Vincent Coates who may be in the best position to know what the market is like are selling shares I do show many filings of sales by both. No purchases but yes many for selling. Also filings for other insiders with the latest SEC filing date of sales
    Dr. Stultz (CEO) 1/3/11
    Mr. Crawford 12/27/10
    Mr. Smith 12/9/10
    Mr. Bain 12/1/10
    Mr. Moniz 12/1/10
    Mr. Bentley 11/19/10
    Mr. Oldham 11/9/10
    Mr. Crawford 11/8/10
    Mr. Rhine 9/14/10
    I guess it's possible all these insiders sold stock even though they felt they were entering the "sweet spot" because they needed some extra cash for Christmas. I surely don't know the reasons they are all selling but it does appear that the people who know this company best all agree they should be selling the stock. I think I will remain in agreement with the insiders that the best course of action is to sell the stock too.

    Best to you sir

    RW
    Jan 17, 2011. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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