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Robert Weinstein  

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  • NPS Pharma's Stock Price Is Getting Ahead of Company Value [View article]
    Hello Rockstarlooks,

    Thank you for taking the time to read and comment on my article. The point of my article was to illustrate that NPSP is being priced for greatness as a direct result of the latest PR.

    I could have gone further into the current royalty stream but the net result is the company is losing money. Writing about how the company is losing money takes away from the GATTEX news I feel.
    Perhaps there is going to be off-label use but it appears to be highly limited and just getting GATTEX approved may be a challenge based on the last TWO phase 3 results.
    More important your confusing the company with the stock. If everything works out for you and GATTEX gets approved and there is some off label use (which in fact I DID include but I guess you missed it in the article) that may bring the peak revenue to $200M

    If all of it works out your still the proud owner of a 80+ PE ratio stock. Any slight miss on any drugs going forward after a total success of GATTEX and NPSP tanks. OREX shows what happens when a company feels the full fat tail event of being on the wrong side of an FDA ruling.

    I believe people will take my analysis seriously because of the results. Had you done your homework before your comment you would know for yourself what my track record is.

    Best of luck to you

    Feb 1, 2011. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Robots Controlling the Stock Market Strike Again [View article]
    Interesting article but it does not appear to be based on facts to support your statements.
    For example "There is no way the VIX can drop this violently" Why not?? Off the top of my head I remember reading about many markets that went crazy without computers at all. Some that come to mind include, onion futures (now illegal as as a result of how crazy they traded), Silver with the Hunt Brothers, 1934, 1929 etc... Markets are based on people and their emotion. I believe a human acts a lot more emotional and violently than computers. Regardless, please tell my why ?
    "This is why you should not be playing around in the markets long or short." Really?? Because I been making money every day in this market (I think I had one or maybe two at the most losing days last month). If your a long term investor why would you care what a market does for 30 minutes on any given day?? If your short term like I normally am I love that kind of movement because it is what rings the register for me. Again though, tell me why with facts.

    "Essentially there is no investing in the stock market anymore" - I am long COCO and wrote several articles about it. I been long for several months now. Owning a stock for several months counts as investing right? As far as I know there are still a lot of mutual funds out there putting money to work.

    "Why anyone would invest their life savings in something as ridiculous as today's robot controlled stock market is beyond me." The answer is actually simple. They want to make money and they think they know how. Knowing how to make money in the capital markets is like sex. Some get it and some don't and just about everyone thinks they are better at it then they really are.....

    Sorry for the harsh comment. It just appears to me that if this can get published then I am putting way to many hours of research in mine.
    Feb 1, 2011. 01:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corinthian Colleges Is a Value Buy - Regardless of Education Rule Changes [View article]
    Hello BKM,

    Come on up to Wisconsin now !!! we can hike through three foot snow.... LOL

    tough fight with Africa in the news 24/7 right now.

    We just had a very nice runup and with the light volume Friday and today I think we are seeing some pre-earnings profit taking. It sure does not have the appearance of a leak in earnings and I was watching all day for it.

    Anything other than a total miss and I will be happy. I am guessing so will the market.

    Best to you

    Jan 31, 2011. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corinthian Colleges Is a Value Buy - Regardless of Education Rule Changes [View article]

    Thanks. Very nice of you to take the time to read and post a comment.
    My average is under $4.50 so that should give you an idea of when I came on board and how long I have been with COCO.
    As a trader it is not usual for me to hang on to gains this long and not realize them. I really believe that this is one to hold on to and not trade out quickly.
    Of course that is a risky thing to say hours before earnings come out. In the end I predict the odds and not the future so I am comfortable with my holding on.

    For the earnings this is my thoughts. I am totally comfortable with anything but a bad miss. Even lukewarm and I will buy into any weakness. If we make it through this one then I believe the next stop is the 200 MA. After breaking upside to the north of the 200MA the shorts will be looking like rats on that really big boat in the North Atlantic....

    If we miss big and the guidance is crap than I will have to re-run the numbers to see if the post panic the sky is falling price will justify not taking my gain (even though it will be smaller in this case as others will be walking away too)
    We stayed above support today but we closed right above/at it so tomorrow will be fun : o )


    Jan 31, 2011. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Hello vvvv,

    I guess so if you consider that my trade was underwater a total of about an hour since putting it on a three days ago failure. It is not how I measure it but two different opinions is what makes a market.

    I am not trading MTG based solely on technical or fundamental but a combination of both. Even if this trade was a loser or turns into a loser if you had done your research you would know what my accuracy rate is.

    If you follow me you may already know that I added to my long when the stock was trading near 8.50ish by shorting Feb 8 puts. I continue to monitor and have confidence in this trade.

    Best of luck to you

    Jan 26, 2011. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree Investors Jump Ship Too Early [View article]
    After what could be considered a brutal sell off CREE finally was able to regain somewhat of a footing yesterday. Closing above the open was a bullish sign and with the follow through today we may not have a bottom put in. If the weak hands are flushed out we should be able to see a retest of the high of the day on the 19th of just under 56. If the lows yesterday are taken out and closes lower I would be looking for lower prices to follow.
    Jan 25, 2011. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Kathy Lien's 'The Little Book of Currency Trading' [View article]
    Mr. Sizemore,

    Thank you for taking the time to comment and you bring up an important point.

    I would agree that forex may not be the ideal place for a trader to extract gains. Indeed I included in my review that more advanced concepts should be developed before trading. Many retail forex dealers give me a feeling that they are much like the bucket shops Jesse Livermore traded with (the landscape does appear to me to be improving for the retail trader though). At the same time forex does have some advantages. For example there is no pattern day trader rule so many people that are locked out of trading equities are able to look to forex as one alternative to "cut their teeth with".

    I think it is important to note that my review (and the book) is not about the merits of forex. My review is how well the author presented information and the completeness of the information. With that goal in mind I think this book is worth reading for someone who would like to get a primer on forex. I believe someone who does read the book is better informed than one that just forges ahead and tries to "figure out as they go" (like many do).

    "Is currency trading really a good idea for novice investors?" I would guess not, but I don't know any type of trading that is a good idea for novices. I believe, like anything that involves money, you better do your homework and be better than your counter-party or you will get your lunch eaten.


    Jan 23, 2011. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Follow up to my article:
    MTG held above the support and traded today mostly between the 200MA and the 60MA for a high of the day. while I would have preferred to not have it breach the 200MA again I opened a small net long position via selling Feb 9 puts right at the close. They go underwater at expiration if the price is below 8.51 but I will likely look to cover next week as I anticipate a retracement in price.

    Have a good weekend and best to all

    Jan 21, 2011. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Hello Mr. Armistead,

    Thank you for reading my article and for taking the time to post your comment. I will take a look at Radian shortly as well.

    It will be interesting to see if MTG tries to penetrate the 200 day moving average again today. Yesterday it provided support and we closed above it but rarely does a price make it through the first try although I too agree that the sell off is overdone and I came close to entering long slightly below 9 yesterday and will watch the price action.


    Jan 21, 2011. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read and comment on my article.

    I believe that for investors the only numbers that matters is the profit. past current and especially future as well as the likelyhood (think %) that they will continue.

    All other numbers including the top line are used to try to estimate what the profit will be going forward and the risk to ruin (goog having a low risk to ruin premium and MTG having a large premium)
    You may have a different opinion and that is fine


    Jan 21, 2011. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp. Sell-Off Brings Price Below Book Value [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time and effort to read and comment on my article. I did not find a article that you wrote even after commenting on 850 others but perhaps you will provide the pleasure of reading on shortly.

    "You don't mention..." Well that is true. Perhaps your understanding of how the market auction pricing system works is limited but allow me to shine a light on it for you. News events such as a lawsuit and updates to financials (especially negative/repeatedly) get priced into a stock rather quickly (in some cases within 60-120 seconds like in the case of earnings of CREE two days ago) but normally fully within very few trading days when it does get digested slowly and beyond one day. Sometimes sir more is not better but simply a waste.

    This stock is priced to fail in my opinion and anything other will appreciate the stock and reward those that own it relative to yesterdays closing price if it does not fail. The sell off is a typical over reaction that I see on a daily basis and I am looking for an entry to get long. Your welcome to be my counter-party and in doing so you will get to experience what that feels like.

    Best to you and your trading (if any)

    Jan 21, 2011. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanometrics: Moving Up a Little Faster Than It Should? [View article]
    Hello Jerry,

    This is my follow up to your email as well as a follow up to several other comments.

    Firstly, I no longer have a position with NANO.

    A natural reaction when someone is committed to a position is to look for every possible thing that confirms the correctness of the position and to ignore anything that would dispute it. This may not be the biggest reason why people fail to realize the gains that they wish to get but I would rate it as one of the top reasons.

    My article starts out and ends the same way. That the blast off in price was unwarranted based on reason cited (some analyst paper on Intel that didn't even list NANO as the primary company).
    I see this day after day after day. Anyone who took the time to try to discredit me could have taken the time to see what my trading history is. I have a blog and would have been able to see that my performance on these types of trades is off the chart at over 95% (if you want to know the actual you can do the math) going back years (I have not been on SA anywhere near that long).
    To look for any possible unmeaning statistic that may not have been correct and ignore the message was truly a waste of time to the highest degree as well as sad as it doesn't help.

    Other points, my articles don't move markets. As much of a compliment it is that my words could move a stock I am not there yet. My motivation is to build my track record and credibility as a trader / investor. So I only post articles about stocks that I feel very comfortable with the direction the price will move. A look at the results of my articles I believe speaks for itself as they are spot on.
    - writing about a stock that you have a position in being stock manipulation when it includes full disclosure??? I think I will just let that one stand on it's own merits (Hint, Jim Crammer would be the first one locked up if that was illegal).

    Lastly, and most important. Never ever get emotional about stocks or money in general. It has been proven time and again to diminish decision making ability. If you find yourself uncomfortable in a trade you are not putting enough thought into the trade before making it and/or have to large of size on.

    Best to all and good luck with your trading in the future.

    Jan 20, 2011. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Networks: Why the Sell-Off After a Small Earnings Miss? [View article]
    Yes, I think it is fair to say that we all agree a sell off was in order for FFIV after the earnings. My main point and why I put it at the end was to say that the sell off yesterday was overdone. Indeed FFIV is up over $3 from the AH close and I covered some of my long as high as 111.97 so far which is over $4 above the close.(due to delays from the time I submit an article and the time it gets reviewed, edited, and published I completed my last overnight trade before this article hit the wire)
    It is rarely correct to sell into a panic unless your very early as stocks tend to retrace.
    As you may guess from my comment I did not miss out with FFIV and as I post my daily results usually you are free to take a look to see how it all turns out. As I write this I am looking for another long entry with FFIV


    Jan 20, 2011. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Offer a Buying Dip This Week? [View article]
    Thank you for your follow up comment.

    I think your point on and would guess most do not know about the time delay. I am also going to take your suggestion and will now include a statement similar to the one you suggest.


    Jan 19, 2011. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Offer a Buying Dip This Week? [View article]
    Thank you for reading and taking the time to comment.

    I understand your point and it does appear I am not really writing anything that is not known. Please note that my article was written Monday night before the market opened. SA can take up to two days to review, edit and publish articles. In the case of this one I was hoping that the article would be on the very short end of the scale in terms of being published as it would have been very timely had it been published by Tuesday Morning.

    Also, In the last hour of trading Tuesday I did follow through with my article and I bought a bull spread.

    I hope this comment clears up why I am still proud of my analysis and article.


    Jan 19, 2011. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment