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  • The End of CCME's Fairy Tale [View article]
    To be sure CCME doesn't pass the smell test currently but I have some problems with your article and I do have some basis.

    I have done business in China for years and only recently sold my company to trade full time. I have also done well over 100 factory tours and what you describe about the office workers is very common. So common by my experience, that your description makes me wonder how many companies you have visited and what level of understanding of Chinese culture you have. While it is true that Chinese workers are overall hardworking it is equally true that management skill levels are not as high as western standards. While quickly closing the gap they are still learning as the free market system is relatively new.
    The net result is that due to a combination of very low wages, status for management based on employee counts, and favors to the local politicians many companies have what appears to be "bloated" payrolls.
    some work appears to be getting done if for no other reason than to pay those that are sitting there texting all day. From reading this it would appear that even payroll could not be completed.

    "Though the language barrier was a little steep with the young receptionist - when we asked for writing paper, she provided Kleenex" This doesn't make sense to me either. While the accent is different than that of Beijing Mandarin is still the spoken language and it is not like being in Macau or parts of Guangdong where Mandarin can require some patience or even writing some words. It would appear that your person speaking to the receptionist did not have Mandarin as a first language.

    Where are the pictures of the trip?

    You met the COO but didn't have dinner or even lunch? Business is talked over dinner or maybe lunch if they don't think your important enough to have dinner with. If you were not asked to have dinner do you know how insulting that is?

    I don't have a position in CCME and I believe fraud is widespread so I would tend to first give an article like this the benefit of the doubt but am I really to believe that thousands of dollars was spent on due diligence and this is the work product of the experience?

    I wrote an article seekingalpha.com/artic... about the shabby work that CR and MWR did with CCME but I would say what they did is more convincing( which says a lot considering I think the odds favor fraud).

    Perhaps you can write up a follow up with pictures and a demonstration that your research should be given the weight that it would appear your looking for.

    Respectfully,

    Robert
    Mar 12 10:34 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exclusive Interview with Jim Rogers: Inflation Is Coming [View article]
    Good interview with Mr. Rogers.

    Mr. Rogers is the kind of guy who not only talks the talk but can walk the walk which is very impressive to me.

    I have been to China many times and the growth and free market attitude is so strong that it makes me wonder about the future of the United States and my Children living here.

    I get the feeling that most of the people that are making long term choices for us in DC have never worked a day in their life and hold the belief that the US government will never have to stop spending more than it brings in. They for sure don't ever think they will have to pay the bill for what was already spent.

    Both of my children can count in Chinese and say some other words as I agree with Mr. Rogers that China now is like America was 100 years ago.
    Jan 15 05:26 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle [View article]
    Does anyone give any thought to what this does to our economy???

    Look, I understand some in DC would say don’t worry about taking away all the cheap affordable cars off the market for people who may not be able to afford a more expensive car. After all we will give the poor people money and handouts and they will be fine.

    I for one am not fine with this and not only is it a total waste of money but its filled with unintended consequences like distorting the used car market. How many jobs (think mechanics, used car lots, auto parts shops and salvage yards) will be LOST as a result of this giveaway. A a very minimum lost wages and lower income for people that service used cars will happen. While no numbers yet exist and maybe hard to calculate I have to wonder what the net result is for AMERICAN jobs/income. After all some of the cars being bought are foreign made cars and most of the jobs/income being lost are American jobs.

    As I understand it many of the new ‘purchases’ would have happened anyway with our without the government handout(Duh).

    Whats gonna be the next great idea? How about we start burning down houses that were built before 1975 with less than 10 inches of insulation if you buy a new energy star house. That would give firefighters plenty to practice on (first controlling the burning and then putting the fires out in a controlled method) as well as take a lot of houses out of the marketplace that dont have as high of conservation levels.

    You could give the new home buyer a $25K credit and that would make buying a new home more afforable. That would put a lot of people to work building new homes and get rid of a lot of excess homes on the market.

    You just need to ignore the facts that it would raise the deficit (wont it be great to tell the children how their future was mortgaged away so we could destroy cars and homes) and lower the total assets that America owns but lets not get facts in the way of change.

    The real scarry thing as I write this is wondering how many people will read the home burning concept and actually think it might be a solution to the housing problem......

    DC should rename itself to UC (Unintended Consequences)

    Want to see what they are doing with the cars to make sure no one drives a “Clunker” again. take a look at the youtube video. If your a taxpayer and this doesn't make you mad than I don’t think your paying attention.

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    Aug 1 01:47 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exit China Agritech, China MediaExpress Positions as Soon as Trading Resumes [View article]
    Hello Fedex,

    Thank you for reading my article and taking the time to comment with your question, allowing me the oppertunity to clarify.

    It appears that you did not read the title and or the article correctly. While I do not enjoy defending the title ( I did not title this article SA did ) the title does not suggest exiting before trading resumes. "... as Soon as Trading Resumes" = after not before trading begins again.

    Further, the very last line of the article says in part ..."upon a resumption of trading."

    I hope this has helped you better understand the message and wish you the very best.

    Respectfully,

    Robert
    Mar 15 09:52 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exclusive Interview with Jim Rogers: Inflation Is Coming [View article]
    Sentinel,

    Small correction. Mr. Rogers did not move to China but rather Singapore which is a city-state in Asia.


    On Jan 15 04:55 PM Sentinel wrote:

    > Roger is the only one I know who had the balls to sell everything
    > he had in America and move to China.
    >
    > Now when a man with that kind of track record (4200% gain over 10
    > years) gained from being able to look ahead and read the tea leaves
    > ups and sells all his property and all his dollar holdings and moves
    > to China....well....that should tell you something about the state
    > of America now and in the not too distant future.
    >
    > Heavy will the crown of Messiahhood lay on Obama's head. The 2012
    > elections are going to be a site to behold. And the safest place
    > to watch just may be in Jim's living room in China.
    Jan 15 05:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Zynga's Earnings Are A Non-Event [View article]
    Zynga already has RMG and expanded within the last year through Facebook.

    It offers poker and casino type games and is licensed in the U.K. All it will take is an announcement that they are expanding into another sizable market and the stock will explode. That's why I wrote is has a binary upside to it.
    Jul 29 06:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Long And Short Trades You Can Make Monday Morning [View article]
    Rocco, I know this is your article so I hope it's ok if I post a comment in reply. I do not intend to turn this into a free for all so I will leave quickly.

    Morgan by your own words you counterdict yourself. On one hand you suggest selling $15 covered calls is awful (because of "plenty of downside and no yield" offering premium of $.34/$.64) and yet suggest selling put options with the same strike price of $15

    Do you have any idea how big of a novice you make yourself appear to be? perhaps a google search on "call put parity" would be on order before you make another comment. In short the relationship between calls and puts are largely STATIC so selling a covered call IS largely the SAME as selling a put. another term is "synthetic" and a short put is a synthetic covered call and vis versa.

    To top things off, all else being equal it is almost always better to sell a covered call with a stock price like RIMM compared to a put. The risk is the same and the premium is greater (because of greater profit potential) with a call than a put. Liquidity is usually better with calls resulting in less slippage.

    You have a lot to learn about options, so instead of "going nuts" maybe go to the finance section of the book store.
    Apr 1 03:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Holdings: Investors Crushed in Rush for the Exit [View article]
    Hello Mike,
    Thank you for reading my article and I hope you found it of value.

    I would like to address your comments and hopefully shed some light.

    I use EDGAR Online for my source which SA recommends and I feel is a very useful and reliable tool. Most of my work used to be done by reading over SEC filings and I have found that EDGAR does a great job of making the information clear and more easily accessible.

    Yes, technically your accurate that Vanguard, Goldman et al. could have already sold as of this post. On the other hand, had you done the research you would have been able to find the publicly available disclosures (either on EDGAR or on the SEC website of the amounts bought and held. As the MWR and CR papers clearly demonstrate there is a lot of mud flying around with many shorts hoping some will stick. You can also see that I made a lot of money with CCME and at this time while still short put options I don't have enough to care. I will however follow up your comment for those investors in CCME as a courtesy. According to EDGAR Online:

    During the quarter ending 12/31/10 there are seven filings and the net result is that Institutional Holders INCREASED holdings by almost 124K shares net. This includes new investors of CCME and some that increased their holdings. 4 out of the 7 filings increased and three including one for 48 shares decreased. None that I listed decreased the number of shares held including GS and Vanguard. Is it possible that they sold since the 12/31/10 filings? Yes, but it is also possible they increased. Given that the trend of Institutional Holders is going up over the last year not down I believe it would be reasonable to assume that the trend will continue. You give the appearance that the data I used is old but this is all public information. I am not sure if this part of your comment is a result of your lack of knowledge and understanding or if your trying to twists the facts around like MWR and CR did. Maybe a little of both.

    Moving to the Switow.com issue. It is highly obvious that it was a poorly done (that is open to debate as it does appear that it aided in the price destruction of CCME) hack job of twisting words in my opinion. Notice how the word "OR" is used with AAPL or distributor. This simple word is the difference between losing a legal battle and being able to say "technically correct". Normally I see this type of quality in the daily emails about penny stocks. Take away the emotion and the logic becomes clear. switow.com does appear to sell apple products and one has to assume that a public company of this size is going through proper channels to source the product. Especially so if they are announcing it. Announcing that your offering aaple products and issuing a statement that your buying the product from a distributor is in my opinion the same as written by MWR as "CCME says they have a contract with AAPLE or one of their distributors". This on its face appears to only suggest that CCME is claiming a AAPL partnership but technically they get away with it by adding in smaller print "or distributor"
    You must ask yourself why put that in there? what purpose is it? its easy to see that switow.com has aapl products on the site. I believe CR and MWR are hoping that it will not matter and that people will hit the sell button and ask questions later.

    It would appear that your not very familiar with Chinese and/or language. If you are than I would once again stand up and say that your twisting words to arrive at a pre-set conclusion instead of letting the fact bring you to where they may. I happen to have lived in Asia, studied Asian history, been to countless cities in China and have done business with many Chinese companies. In short I believe I am qualified to respond to the wording of your comment. Please note to those reading this comment that I have not looked into the accuracy of the wording of Mike's comment and will purely go on what is in quotes assuming that they are correct and in context.
    From the comment - 'advertising contract with Switow magazine, an online platform...". Why is it not Switow.com? What is Switow magazine? ' This is no more or less than a simple translation difference in terms. Many Chinese learn British English due to Hong Hong, Australia and New Zealand as well as American English.
    What Americans often call an "online catalog" means the same in Chinese as "online magazine" from a Chinese translation point of view. I often hear/read about American companies pointing out their "online catalogs". If you Google the term you will have 17.7M results. Picking apart a translation is a useless endeavor at best. We have words and meanings they do not and vise-versa. I feel like I am beating a dead horse on this one as it appears very obvious. I understand how to understand what a Chinese person is trying to say probably better than 90% of Americans so maybe it is just easier for me.

    Anyone can sell basically anything on Amazon so i don't really think your example supports your argument. In fact I have sold products including name brand products (not AAPLand I never attempted to sell AAPL products) on the Amazon site.
    www.ccme.tv/eng/global...

    Management did respond late in the afternoon on Thursday. Looking at the afterhours trading you can pretty clearly see when the response hit the wire. I wrote about it with StockTalk on SA and anyone who follows me would have seen my update that included the price was rising rapidly. www.ccme.tv/eng/ir/pre...

    I do agree that your last statement is accurate. Or at least I hope that this answer was "soon".

    Lastly, my motivation. I could care less what CCME does. Other than having a very few put contracts written to capture the sky high time decay that is more related to the IV of the options than it is to the company I have no interest in CCME. In fact just a few days ago I was short the stock as I felt it was overbought. What surprises me is why so many people that are invested (and did their homework so they know what is going on when crap like this hits the wire) are so upset. This in my opinion gave a great short term opportunity to buy shares on the cheap. For long term investors this is a non event and will amount to nothing more than a tiny blimp on the chart that you can point at and say "I bought some more of this temporary dip" to your friends.
    One thing that I have not read about much is that even if the write ups are designed to open the window to let the shorts out before earnings and or an announcement of a dividend, there could be an even better way to make money. Perhaps shorts used the sell off to cover the shorts but MAYBE they also used the extreme dip to buy cheap. Think about it. You cover your short and then you buy and in doing so you double your gains as apposed to just covering shorts. It would be so perfect. You know that people will put holes and find that the paper is without merit but not until after the price drops. Later the price recovers and you get to go out twice for celebration as you cover your long. (maybe I should do the research on this and write an article on how this could be done)

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 5 02:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Holdings: Investors Crushed in Rush for the Exit [View article]
    Hello SOS,

    Thank you for reading my article and posting your comment. I had some trouble finding the release date but here is my source. Please reply with your source as well as I would like to have the correct date displayed. www.earningswhispers.c... they list 2/7/11

    There is also another date I looked at but I dismissed it because it appears to be wrong. www.investors.com/Stoc... shows a reporting of 3/23/11

    Please feel free to reply.

    Best

    Robert
    Feb 4 04:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in the Chinese Yuan: World's Reserve Currency by 2030? [View article]
    I love China. I love the people that I met and the places that I have seen. Every trip I have made to China further increased my belief that a free market can provide wonderful windfalls and "rise the tide for all boats". To see people working away as much as they can with total disregard to their own comfort and being with their family is both very sad and inspiring to me.
    A study of history shows that China at one time was the largest GDP country in the world and if you include both India and China at one time they made up about 75% of the worlds GDP by themselves.
    With China growing as fast as it is and seeing how much wealth is transferring to the middle kingdom it is very easy to see why many may think they "will take over". I could say we heard this all before in the late 80s with Japan and indeed I think many of the elected officials dusted off the playbook with Japan in how to do their best with China bashing.
    China is different though. They have a huge population and they are have an equal difference in natural resources within their own territory. This can lead one to believe that there is nothing stopping China from reaching the top of the food chain. There are also some serious differences that should be noted before we all pack up our bags and move to the far east.
    There really is no meaningful constitution in China. Legislatively they can change the constitution at will and while some positive changes have taken place (I was in China when they finally passed the right to own land, but that was done so banks could loan money with the land being an asset for collateral not to provide rights to the people).
    The RMB is not currently even traded against other currencies and / or fully convertible. While it does appear that this will happen it could be 20 years before it does which would seem to be a first requirement for using it as a reserve.
    There is no real civil law system in China. Most of the judges are not even lawyers but rather political appointees. Looking at some of the fights some international companies have had gives a giant pause in the faith that as a foreigner your rights will be protected (something you will probably want if your holding their paper fiat currency)
    The great firewall of China means that markets can not be fully trusted because their is a lack of information to market participants.
    The economy is in a very real and large sense benefiting from a relatively weak RMB. Taking that away with a fully traded currency means the economy slows down and that is paramount to an elephant riding a bike that stops. The elephant needs to keep moving forward or there is going to be one very huge crash. There are currently hundreds of protests happening in China on any given day (China's official news doesn't seem to want to carry this news) due to economic problems in rural areas as well as urban protests. An economic slowdown could create a critical mass protest that could be perilous to the political power in place so unless one can believe that China will maintain it's growth with a fully convertible currency I do not see how one could see progress in the reserve currency status.

    We are already seeing fraud after fraud case with Chinese stocks and I expect we will see an acceleration in cases that the companies are reporting numbers that do not match up with reality. The primary reason in my opinion is that companies in China feel they can get away with this due to the lack of rule of law within China. I am unaware of any Chinese company executive that has received a sentence for defrauding foreigners.
    Without a doubt China is growing and their influence is growing (especially in places where they are lending money including right here). I think it's possible things could change and that the RMB could replace the greenback as the worlds reserve currency but I think there is a LOT of housekeeping and trust that China will need to do and develop in order to replace the dollar. We surely have our issues but as much as our economy is a driver of the dollars reserve status it is our rule of law and the trust others place with the US that keeps our status. When things get doubtful you see it in the dollar as money flows back to safety. China is a long way from from developing that feeling of being safe with the rest of the world.

    Full disclosure: I have a small amount of RMB and my sons are learning to speak Mandarin : o )
    Jan 16 03:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    "Amazon is more than just a retailer" - I agree, but that's part of Amazon's problem. It makes a lot of money through its sales portal, but loses money in other areas.

    There are many metrics that are valuable to help determine an appropriate price, but everyone understands P/E and at the end of the day, P/E rules king because no company can maintain a multiple over 100 forever.

    I can see Amazon's multiple falling below 30 FAST if they begin to stack up losses and fail to grow the top and bottom lines because another player enters the space. Anyone not understanding the potential peril owning a triple digit P/E in the face of a much larger competitor entering the space deserves what they get.
    Jul 14 01:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Third Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Hi Ben,

    Thanks for reading an adding to the conversation.

    It's always the same case when you're not filling the punch bowl. I could have wrote the exact same thing, with the only difference being a very glowing and positive prognosis and the comments would sing praises.

    It really becomes interesting when I write an full blown bearish article (see MCP for example). All I'm saying is that IF Micron doesn't significantly beat, the shares may likely fall.

    Considering I get asked often why XYZ went down after beating, I know many don't fully understand the dynamics of the market.

    Nice buy. I almost joined you before the big court case a while ago. I do agree all else being equal, a pullback into about $24ish may offer an attractive buying dip.
    Jun 18 07:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Content That I Sold Apple And Gave Up Trading [View article]
    Dem,

    You make a good point. If you're self directed (which is likely a fair assumption if you're spending time on seelingalpha) the concepts apply to all frequency levels of investing.

    There are different skill sets required depending on the length of a trade. As you shorten the time horizon of a position, technical analysis abilities increasingly become more influential, while relatively longer holding times increases the fundamental influence on price. For example, the price changes of AAPL in the next three or four hours absent a news event has little to do with the fundamentals. At the same time the price change from now and a year from now will have little to do with technicals relative to fundamentals.

    I can not agree with you more about leverage. Most should not use leverage most of the time. My chat room would have a lot more "old timers" if only people would lower their leverage.
    Apr 14 02:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Overload: Pandora Has Little To Do With Satellite Radio's Demise [View article]
    Very cool Video
    Apr 12 11:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint Hangs Up on PlayBook 4G, Research In Motion Searches for Another Partner [View article]
    Hello Marv,

    Thank you for reading my article, and very good observation.

    For the last quarter alone Apple reported over 9 million units sold. No one else that I know of is coming even close to the numbers Apple is generating.

    Best,

    Robert
    Aug 13 01:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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