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Robert Weinstein

 
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  • Apple Could Become Serious Competition for Sirius XM [View article]
    Hello Sirius,

    After having done a lot of research on SIRI I can only conclude we are thinking of two different stocks.
    Firstly, SIRI has not made money and in fact one of the "features" of this stock is the massive NOL tax benefits this has. Unless an investor timed the buying of SIRI with a lucky horseshoe up their butt they have been killed with SIRI.

    Secondly, across North America the number of people with unlimited data plans continues to grow. If you already have an unlmited data plan it does not cost any extra to listen to the thousands of online stations available to streaming on a smartphone.

    I get it that some investors of SIRI just love the stock and have no time for anyone that has a different opinion. No problem there and as a matter of fact I often call people that use emotion as their guiding light as my counter-party to my trades. Anyway, as great as $SIRI investors claim it is, it really is hard to get around the fact that OVER 30% of current listeners will not have it in 12 months from now. If that number alone does not tell you that just maybe not everyone thinks its a value then we just disagree. Which is fine, as that is what makes a market

    Best

    Robert
    Apr 6 11:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asking Sirius Questions [View article]
    Hello Jeffrey,

    "MBA from Columbia University", that is impressive no doubt. I have had a few MBAs work for me so I believe I understand what it takes to get one. I myself do not have anywhere near your or Rocco's academic credentials so maybe I am not smart enough to understand why you would attack him personally. Why not just argue what is wrong about what he has to say? Would that not be of more use?

    How about if you share your last five year time weighted average return of your investments? Again, I don't have the schooling you do but I am under the impression that performance is what matters when investing. I could be wrong....

    Lastly, I don't agree with Rocco about being long this stock. I think SIRI is bad for investors for many reasons. Including the reason that pump and dumpers will more easily give people hope with their damn penny stock email pumps. SIRI PE is North of 100, APPL may enter the space, Pandora is growing and other players are going to be putting headwinds on SIRI. It "WAS" a great investment for those that bought the lotto ticket but going forward I believe the end of the song may be near

    Best

    Robert
    Mar 7 09:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Options Strategy for China MediaExpress Holdings [View article]
    Hello BTO,

    Thank you for reading my article. Also thank you for giving me a chance to clarify this part. You bring up a a valid question.

    With a put writing (selling) strategy I am substituting options for stock. Because I am not actually trading any shares of stock I also don't buy any stock. PUTS become very confusing to those getting started with options because it is like trying to drive a car looking through a mirror. When one is SHORT a put it is similar to being LONG the stock. Conversely when one is LONG a PUT it is the same as being SHORT a stock. Feels like looking through a mirror doesn't it? Even people that have a lot of experience transpose the terms from time to time.

    If I sell a $13 put (and become short the put) it is the same as writing an insurance policy to someone. If the stock closes on the expiration day* below $13 I will have to buy the stock from the person at $13 regardless of the current price. Taking it to the next step lets assume I sold the insurance policy for $2. If we take the strike price of $13 minus the premium I received of $2 then the maximum I can lose is $11. If at the time I sold the option the stock was trading at $14 then the maximum I could lose is $14. Thus selling the put option lowers the total amount I could lose when comparing the same amount of shares in play.

    Instead of waiting until the options expire I can BUY the option back in the open market in the same manner that I sold it in. By buying the option back that I wrote I "flatten" out my position and end up with a net zero position. If I am able to buy the option back at a later time for only a $1 I would then be able to keep the difference between the sale price and the price I bought it for later (which is what I did do with CCME). So I did not buy the stock I bought the options back that I had originally sold (wrote).

    Does that make sense? if not please feel free to ask again and I will go through it a different way. Plus please note that I will be writing a multiple article series on options starting from the very basics and moving to advanced theory.

    Respectfully,

    Robert

    *technically at any time for American style but for simplicity we will assume only on the expiration day here
    Feb 7 05:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Holdings: Investors Crushed in Rush for the Exit [View article]
    Thank you for reading my article. Thank you for also taking the time and thought into posting several comments. I believe you add several key points of discussion and things to think about.

    Your comment:
    "An advanced version of "Shoot the messenger". "
    -When the messenger brings a copy of the National Enquirer that has the name covered up with a cut out of "Wall Street Journal" perhaps it is time to shoot the messenger.

    Your comment:
    "Borrows on CCME have been next to impossible for several months and I can assure you that neither MW nor Citron is anxious to divvy up whatever positions may be available between themselves."

    Sometimes people will say things that give away their level of knowledge and/or understanding of the subject matter. I believe how much value should be placed on your comments will be appropriately applied, as your expertise comes out in your comments.


    Please note that I included as part of my article the short interest for CCME. This comes directly from NASDAQ but if you have a better source that should be examined I am willing to look at it.
    I asked my third-grade son to look at the information on the image and explain to me what he noticed about the numbers in the short interest column and the settlement date column. What my third-grade son told me was that the numbers were getting larger as time moved on.
    For example the amount that we begin with the settlement date of June 15, 2010 is approximately 900,000 shares. Approximately 2 months later the amount of shares shorted grew to 2.4 million shares. Two months after that the amount grew to 4.3 million shares. Two months later again the amount grew to 4.8 million shares. Finally we see the last settlement date of January 14, 2011 displays a short interest of 6.4 million shares.
    How someone is able to look at the data and conclude that borrows have been next to impossible is behind my comprehension.
    Additionally I asked members in my chat room to let me know who was able to borrow shares on Thursday of the crash. Several members of different firms responded that they had shares available. So even in the middle of the drop in price not only were shares not "next to impossible" but were actually relatively easy to borrow considering the price action. Furthermore options for CCME were liquid with rich premium. I traded over 200 contracts between Thursday and Friday so I have first-hand knowledge of the liquidity. Creating a synthetic short position with options would not have presented anyone with an actual understanding of the mechanics of the market with a problem.

    You write:
    "The cogent takeaway from the work MW and Citron are doing is "Fore"."

    Then further in another comment:
    "I didn't write a word of the MW report. As a matter of fact I have only skimmed it because the opportunity to short the company is limited and excessively rich at the moment. I have seen the SAICs. I have seen earlier research that I am sure was relayed to MW"

    I believe you intended "read" instead of "write". Here is my question though?? How does one criticize an article (backed up with links and sources) when the commenter has not even read the subject matter and not expect to look totally irrelevant? I am not saying you are obtuse. I will say my first grader knows to not try to give me a book report on a book he did not read (In all fairness to you my first grader just learned this very lesson about a week ago. So previous to a week ago I would have to go back to using my third grader as an example)

    You wrote:
    "1. Implying collusion on the issuance of the reports reflects a complete unfamiliarity with the game or the players."
    Again you demonstrate your lack of game theory knowledge. There is more than one type of collusion. For example there is one type of collusion that you refer to that may be simply described as two people talking on the phone to strategize and work together. But there is also another form of collusion which is sometimes referred to as "implied collusion". In this form of collusion participants do not actively strategize with one another directly. For example using what happened with CCME. After the CR report came out and was successful in creating a level of uncertainty and fear in the market the window of time to get the maximum impact of a negative “report” is obviously either Thursday or Friday. It certainly appears based on spelling and grammar errors that the MWR report was rushed. Had the MWR report waited until next week I believe the impact of the CR report would have diminished due to the many errors(along with event risk such as a dividend announcement, earnings etc..). While CR may or may not have known about the upcoming MWR report, MWR clearly could see the impact of the CR report and acted accordingly. The net effect of the implicit collusion to the price of the stock is the same as explicit collusion. Implicit collusion happens every day in the markets and can be easily witnessed watching the actions of market makers on a level to screen. Implicit collusion is one of the most fundamental building blocks of technical analysis.

    "Last I looked CCME is represented by a US based PR firm"
    While this may be true but I think it's safe to bet that most people reading the article understand a PR firm is not about to start issuing statements without approval of top management. In fact and as I already stated previously CCME did issue a press release refuting the articles and committed to a further press release providing more detail. The timing of the events is equivalent for an American CEO receiving a phone call on Christmas morning at 3 a.m. advising that the stock price is falling due to a negative Internet posting.

    CCME may ultimately be shown to be a fraud but I believe it's very clear CR and MWR "research reports" would simply be coincidence. I also believe that fraud and corruption in Chinese accounting is rampant and many companies will implode large and small. There is no rule of law and I am unaware of any one of significance who has been prosecuted for defrauding a foreigner. It's basically the wild wild West and if you don't do your homework you can get your head handed to you very quickly. The same environment that creates this high level of risk also creates very great opportunities for those that are able to filter the good from the bad. After extensive research the CR and MWR papers carry as much weight and credibility to me as the average pennystock pump e-mail I receive daily.

    Respectfully,

    Robert
    Feb 6 02:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanometrics: Moving Up a Little Faster Than It Should? [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time and effort to comment on my article.

    Unfortunately it appears that after the reading you were left with no counter points or discussion on the merits of the company and felt a desire to attack me personally.

    I would guess that few will find your comment of real value but perhaps you may be able to do some research on the company / industry that demonstrates how the valuation should be different. Indeed I welcome a healthy discussion on a stock I have interest in because I feel it furthers my knowledge as I would guess many others do as well.

    We may have a difference in opinion but I tend to give some added weight to those that have a well documented opinion and have some of their own skin in the game. Those that talk about investments (either good or bad) but don't actually have any money on the line are not as convincing to me as those that do and fully disclose what they are doing.

    Best of luck to you and if you find you have something to add that is about NANO feel free to try again.

    RW
    Jan 16 12:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Heads I Win, Tails I Break Even [View article]
    Well your technically correct in some ways. Yes if the amount that is being paid to V is lower than cost yes this would be "bad". But what needs to be known is the costs are what BANKS charge merchants and V only gets part of that from the banks. One would presume this would put downward pressure on the top and bottom line but I believe that has been more than priced in. With the current closing price of 67 per share V has a forward earnings PE of less than 20 and a growth rate of over 5% even if the limit was 12 cents. Add in the name brand value and I think this is a buy. There is no "if" the price is to low. The cost is a lot less and unless your a really big bank your exempt from the law. Also the largest merchants negotiate rates that are very low relative to the average.
    "if the Fed lowers credit card transactions in the same manner?" - well there is no mandate by congress to do so. I guess congress could pass and the president could sign a law but in light of the last election that appears to be something that is a near zero factor.

    There is not much to understand here with V. It was a panic throw the baby out with the bathwater sale on V and when the calm comes back and the panic goes away like it always does I believe V will retrace very nicely.

    Best to you
    Dec 17 05:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash for Clunkers: What Can the Government Buy You Next? [View article]
    Does anyone give any thought to what this does to our economy???

    Look, I understand some in DC would say don’t worry about taking away all the cheap affordable cars off the market for people who may not be able to afford a more expensive car. After all we will give the poor people money and handouts and they will be fine.

    I for one am not fine with this and not only is it a total waste of money but its filled with unintended consequences like distorting the used car market. How many jobs (think mechanics, used car lots, auto parts shops and salvage yards) will be LOST as a result of this giveaway. A a very minimum lost wages and lower income for people that service used cars will happen. While no numbers yet exist and maybe hard to calculate I have to wonder what the net result is for AMERICAN jobs/income. After all some of the cars being bought are foreign made cars and most of the jobs/income being lost are American jobs.

    As I understand it many of the new ‘purchases’ would have happened anyway with our without the government handout(Duh).

    Whats gonna be the next great idea? How about we start burning down houses that were built before 1975 with less than 10 inches of insulation if you buy a new energy star house. That would give firefighters plenty to practice on (first controlling the burning and then putting the fires out in a controlled method) as well as take a lot of houses out of the marketplace that dont have as high of conservation levels.

    You could give the new home buyer a $25K credit and that would make buying a new home more afforable. That would put a lot of people to work building new homes and get rid of a lot of excess homes on the market.

    You just need to ignore the facts that it would raise the deficit (wont it be great to tell the children how their future was mortgaged away so we could destroy cars and homes) and lower the total assets that America owns but lets not get facts in the way of change.

    The real scarry thing as I write this is wondering how many people will read the home burning concept and actually think it might be a solution to the housing problem......

    DC should rename itself to UC (Unintended Consequences)

    Want to see what they are doing with the cars to make sure no one drives a “Clunker” again. take a look at the youtube video. If your a taxpayer and this doesn't make you mad than I don’t think your paying attention.

    youtube.com/watch?...
    Aug 1 01:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Good News: Record High Credit Card Defaults [View article]
    I think the article is well written and makes some valid points. I also believe that bankruptcy does raise the cost for the rest of us. I have carried credit card debt at times over more than one month and that rates pretty high on my stupid scale of things that I have done.

    One should never buy something that one needs to borrow at high interest rates to do so. It may be argued that once in a while in an emergency its understandable but even then that's usually a result of poor planning before the event happened. So many people live their lives like their car will never break down and/or unexpected expenses will not happen to them.
    May 17 10:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Hi Ebitda,

    Yes, they do have brand recognition for sure.

    That said, it didn't take five years for Amazon and Apple to destroy BlackBerry's share price. Keep in mind that the market is forward looking.

    Best of luck
    Jul 14 05:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple May Not Dominate China [View article]
    I can't recall ever asking someone what their gender is or even thinking about it. It doesn't make any difference to me in the slightest and now that you bring it up it still doesn't.

    Perhaps it's my computer, but I don't see a bio for Weezy and as stated its the first article. If a history was not important enough for someone to post it's not important enough for me to "investigate" it.

    All of this is nothing more than a distraction anyway. My opinion is based on my understanding. Weezy could be a native business owner in China and I would listen, but I would not change my position. I also work with numbers all day in odds calculations so I am extreme about not having "sample bias".

    Also I don't have an axe to grind with China. In fact my office walls are filled with Chinese related items including many pictures.

    I just would not count on 70 million iphones being sold this year or next or anywhere near that number relative. As we all seem to agree, China is not the same as the US. In the end expect Chinese brands to make significant inroads into the upper end of smartphones cutting into Apples ability to monetize like they have elsewhere.
    Apr 23 07:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turning $100,000 Into Half A Million In 2012 [View article]
    Ya know outcastsearcher....

    You're just smart enough to sound not so smart. It's a sim portfolio so of course real risk and the normal emotion many have with trading is not going to be part of it.

    That would be bad enough all on it's own to demonstrate your awareness of the obvious, but then you take it over the top and you don't even know why.

    Risk is NOT something you worry about, if your worried (or emotional at all) than your gambling and not investing. Risk o wise one is something you factor in as a reality and you than make a calculated decision if the reward, odds, portion of capital, and yes RISK justify entering in or staying out.

    With a sim account you have the luxury of putting on trades you don't deem to have an edge and it's still a very worthwhile endeavor in gaining experience without expense.

    All too often hotshots come and go with big size and big egos only to find their heads handed to them two years later. There is a valuable lesson to be learned here if you take the time to listen. Using a sim account is a great way to become a great trader because it trains the mind to NOT "worry" and be emotional while in a trade.

    The newsletter Rocco puts out is all about mitigating risk, not taking long shots and being a know it all. You would know that if "again" you took the time to actually find out. Rocco has a sample size of over 500 articles, it's pretty clear he doesn't have a "go for broke" attitude and that he does his homework.

    Sorry for the rant Rocco, I just get tired of some of the anonymous negativity once in a while. i will let you all go back to your regularly scheduled show now...
    Feb 2 10:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Apple Reports Fiscal Q1 Results Tuesday [View article]
    Hello Henry,

    LOL, thanks for reading my article and sharing your thoughts. I know, I kinda scratched my head and did a double check for errors.

    I included it because the short interest is so low, I wanted to show that it has been that way for a long time. While the chart is totally flat lined as you pointed out, there is still value in knowing it.

    Have a great weekend and best of luck to the Apple longs next week

    Robert
    Jan 20 05:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM's Latest Endeavor Has Failure Written All Over It [View article]
    Seriously?? You believed your comment added 'value' to the conversation??

    There is a reason why he has over a thousand followers and is ranked as one of the very top read authors on this site, which in turn probably puts him into the top of all financial writers on the net.

    I count myself as a follower because I know what I read will be quality information, and I don't follow very many, much less read many on a regular basis.

    Also, as was pointed out, you put the time and work in to produce articles yourself. You may find that working to help each other produces a much better environment for everyone than working to cut each other down.

    I hope you have a good weekend and also find the time to reflect on being negative or being positive in life.

    Best,

    Robert
    Aug 19 05:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keep Emotion Out of Trading [View article]
    Hello Sirius,

    Thank you for reading my article. You are correct that I did not title the article. I believe my title submitted was better, but it would appear the editor did not agree.

    You are also correct that one is subject to other market participants who can't control themselves or simply choose not to let money be the guiding criteria. That is no different than how a professional poker player, Casino, Car salesman, jewelry salesperson etc... Having the counterparty using emotion instead of logic IS what makes it profitable. It does not mean you should join in.

    The winners of the game take emotion out of their trading, just like the casino does. The winners have written plans of entry and exit and they follow them. I have said it many times and I will repeat it here, "Trading when done correctly is boring"

    Best,

    Robert
    Aug 13 01:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Transparency Wall of China Part I [View article]
    Hello Joe,

    Thanks for reading my article and taking the time to comment.

    One thing that should be noted is that this article was written last week and submitted on Friday. I was asked to edit it and with a few re-edits it hit the wire today.

    With that in mind LLEN was trading over $5 at the time I wrote this and now its down 10% more.

    I do hope you are right. I have no problem being wrong with every single stock listed as I don't want to see people have the screws put to them. That in part is why I wrote this.

    The main point I would like to stress is that there is easier ways to invest. Easy as in less risk. It is going to take some very major changes before the public opinion that these stocks are 'safe' to invest in and until that happens I would believe they will be under pricing pressure.

    Best

    Robert
    Jun 8 04:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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