Thanks for reading my article and taking the time to comment.
I do not know what percentage of product that is fake is sold to citizens vs. visitors, but I am pretty sure in places where I am the only non Asian for 50 miles it is NOT Americans buying the products at the local stores.
I will agree there is going to be plenty of vendors looking to sell all sorts of products to "white devils" but my article is beyond that. Try going into a music store and buying a Fender or Gibson guitar in China and see how easy it is to buy a real one.
As far as iPhones go, you can't tell a real one from a fake one without opening it up. So how do you know the display models are not real and the one they give the customer is not fake? For having traveled 53 times I get the impression you have not gone far from the Intercontinental or Hyatt in Shanghai. Even my eight year old son can count to 100 in Chinese (something he has been able to do for about three years now). Can you?
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
Thanks for reading the article, but it would appear you missed the main point. The main point is to hedge shares you may already have if you are worried about earnings.
I provided two different thoughts on how to do this. Many people don't know how options may assist in hedging and provide lower volatility. Of course an article is not going to say buy X strike at X month and hold for X days because everyone and every portfolio has different needs and risk tolerance.
If I provide a new idea or a reminder for some investors I consider it a success. Nothing about investing is "easy" and that's why people read my articles, to take some of the confusion away.
Why I Am Content That I Sold Apple And Gave Up Trading [View article]
Ag,
With $AAPL, $BCE, $BDX, $CMLS, $EWC, $INTC, $NOK, $P, $TWX, $WEN and most other stocks it seems to be more than a coin toss, but we can stick with it.
Let's add another influence to our coin tossing fun. I will call it "edge". Perhaps I took for granted this part was assumed when we talked about odds. Generally I don't enter into trades until the odds are stacked pretty heavily in my favor. As I get older I tend to find more comfort in ending the day positive than ending the day with a lot of commissions from my broker.
still using our favorite standard silver dollar, you find someone who is willing to pay you $1.05 every time it comes up heads and you pay $1 every time it comes up tails. Finding others to take the other side is not very hard to imagine. Casinos find people willing to take bets like these and much worse on a non stop basis.
Every time the coin gets flipped you make on average $0.025 regardless if you win or lose the bet if (and the if is important) you toss the coin enough times (trials) and your capital allows you to stay in the game (risk to ruin positional sizing which is among other important topics written about in the Pendola Options Newsletter http://bit.ly/wbmj9l)
There is a lot of comments and good interaction here in this thread. If you're reading this and wanting to know more about odds, positional sizing of portfolios, lowering risk and sleepless nights, clarifying exit strategies, edges, advantages YOU have over Wall Street (yes there are some and usually not thought about) and advantages they have over you and how to minimize them, then Rocco's newsletter is going to provide answers in the style and tone you're already enjoying here.
One of the best parts is if you email Rocco a question about a subject in the newsletter you get a reply back usually by the next day. Where else are you going to get that kind of service and honesty?
Could this be called a shameless plug for Rocco's newsletter (Rocco has been kind enough to let me play a part)? Sure, but only because after reading the comments it appears a lot of people could really get a lot of value out. The other thing is if I didn't know for a fact almost everyone will be glad they did sign up and continue with their membership I would not bring it up either.
In Wall Street there is a scene with Gecko and Fox where Gecko tells Fox that "information is the most valuable commodity there is" (or something close to that) and I fully agree. Avoiding just a few mistakes a year justifies the cost and learning a new idea or concept (Rocco does a smashing job of communicating complicated concepts into easily understood ways) puts the value way over the top. ok, I turned this comment into an ad (didn't start out that way) but sign up and try it for a month and if you don't like it I am sure he will refund your money.
Why I Am Content That I Sold Apple And Gave Up Trading [View article]
A young lady walks into a broker’s office and asks “How do you become an investor?” The broker at the desk replies “Start out as a day trader and buy a stock that refuses to come back to even”. For some this joke may hit a little close to home. Seeking Alpha is an investment site with short term swing positions and options as the “high frequency” types of trading for the most part. I don’t know what the numbers are, but it’s probably a fair statement that many on this site have thought about or tried to trade with greater frequency like day trading. I have been in the same trading chat room for maybe six years hardly missing any days. In that time I have seen many come and go with one almost universal reason why they leave. Just about every story of losing involves a loss of discipline one way or another. Can you make money day trading? Yes, but you have to be willing to work hard and put in the hours and training needed. As many have said it “can be a hard way to make an easy buck”. Crazy enough, after you have done it for a while it actually becomes quite easy like driving a car. Anyone who has been to Vegas has likely seen all the blackjack tables in the big casinos. It’s no longer a secret anymore that the game can be beat. The reason why the game survives is because there are many people willing to wager money who are also unwilling to put the effort in to become a winner. Many casinos will even let some known card counters play because they know the real edge is the emotion and lack of discipline most have which destroys their capital. The father of card counting Ed Thorp with his book “beat the dealer” is well known too. But did you know he also wrote another book called “beat the market”? Not only did Mr. Thorp make money in blackjack, but he did it on Wall Street too. One can make money and it’s not about luck (the statistics prove it’s not luck), it’s about a lot of time, effort, and study. It should be treated like learning to practice law, medicine, or learning to fly jets. Anything less and well I guess you will have “bad luck”. Those with the right mental attitude can be spotted by their statements describing the odds and how much they have at risk. Those that are likely to fail are those who think about how much money they can make, don’t know the historic odds, or can’t produce a written plan. The former is not as easy to find as the latter. I didn’t really come here to point out the failings in some of the comments, but to add some light on what it takes and it is not for most just like flying airplane is not for most including me (I took pilot lessons). What I did come here for was to say thank you to Rocco for his overly kind and generous words. I have known Rocco for about a year now and if seems like we have been great friends for a long time. It’s been a two way street of rewards and Rocco is one of the most sharing intelligent people I have had the honor to meet. I have been blessed by Rocco letting me participate in his outstanding options newsletter. I believe it is a fair statement to say the response has been incredible with new sign ups every day from all parts of the globe.
Thanks again Rocco, you made my day with your article.
I am long technically. I have some shares without a hedge, but mostly I have a covered call position on because of the implied volatility is so high I want to capture a directional move as well as time decay.
If what you're asking is how large proportionally I can tell you no single trade changes my lifestyle for better or worse. risk management is what I get paid for, not trying to get lucky.
Research In Motion May Be Attractive With The Right Approach [View article]
If that is what you took from the article it would appear you didn't understand it. It's been about six trading days since my article hit the wire. Regardless if the price moved higher or lower (absent a buyout offer) it is too early to suggest success or failure. This was not meant to be a "day trader" type of position as should be clear by the use of a hedge.
4 Long And Short Trades You Can Make Monday Morning [View article]
This is a good question and there can be several answers, but my motivation is only one. I need to add that the concept of selling the covered calls is taken out of an article and not simply a statement "do this or don't do that" http://seekingalpha.co...
The short answer for me in considering the pullback is based on technical reasons. The recent climb in price breaking through weak resistance has not been confirmed and the price is just below the 60 and 90 day moving averages (more resistance). I believe the overall market is vulnerable to a pullback after the large run up in prices and the end of the quarter. Also it is simply a lower risk trade if entered in from a lower price. Chasing stocks is not an optimal strategy for me so I often look for pullbacks before entering.
Lastly, it's not just selling calls, its selling covered calls.
Research In Motion May Be Attractive With The Right Approach [View article]
I would agree that one day of trading, especially today doesn't mean a lot for longer term investors. There does appear to be relatively limited downside in real dollar terms though. Problems are priced in and if they hit the ball hard with 10 or something else it will add a lot of wind in the sails
Fear Of 'Fear Index' Tracking ETNs May Provide Opportunity [View article]
Just a quick update $VXX - I am still short some OTM puts and OTM covered calls. I closed out one position with $17 April puts for a gain near the peak yday. Almost re-bought into the close but didn't reach my entry target. IV has understandably moved higher in the last four trading sessions. Will look for IV to fall and Theta to burn off the premium
Fear Of 'Fear Index' Tracking ETNs May Provide Opportunity [View article]
"Maybe", sorry but that is the best anyone can answer this. Remember the VXX is not based on the VIX but rather VIX futures which are correlated and not fully correlated. The bigger question is if the futures will move up relatively as much.
All else being equal I would say if the VIX moves above by at least a point the odds are in your favor. In order to mitigate expenses (as well as other reasons) you may want to consider selling volatility instead of a straight exposure position.
Fear Of 'Fear Index' Tracking ETNs May Provide Opportunity [View article]
Why the $VXX is at any given price is always going to be subjective, but in part it's a safe bet to price part of the drop and part of the price at any given time with a discount due to credit default risk.
Why Apple May Not Dominate China [View article]
Thanks for reading my article and taking the time to comment.
I do not know what percentage of product that is fake is sold to citizens vs. visitors, but I am pretty sure in places where I am the only non Asian for 50 miles it is NOT Americans buying the products at the local stores.
I will agree there is going to be plenty of vendors looking to sell all sorts of products to "white devils" but my article is beyond that. Try going into a music store and buying a Fender or Gibson guitar in China and see how easy it is to buy a real one.
As far as iPhones go, you can't tell a real one from a fake one without opening it up. So how do you know the display models are not real and the one they give the customer is not fake? For having traveled 53 times I get the impression you have not gone far from the Intercontinental or Hyatt in Shanghai. Even my eight year old son can count to 100 in Chinese (something he has been able to do for about three years now). Can you?
Big Technology Reporting Earnings Tuesday [View article]
I like your comment and agree
Mel Karmazin Sells 11 Million Shares Of Sirius And Nets $25 Million [View article]
That's just funny......
Good work Cameron (or whoever you are) and best of luck here and everywhere else!!
Bob
Using Options To Help Get A Restful Night Of Sleep Before Apple's Earnings Release [View article]
I provided two different thoughts on how to do this. Many people don't know how options may assist in hedging and provide lower volatility. Of course an article is not going to say buy X strike at X month and hold for X days because everyone and every portfolio has different needs and risk tolerance.
If I provide a new idea or a reminder for some investors I consider it a success. Nothing about investing is "easy" and that's why people read my articles, to take some of the confusion away.
Why I Am Content That I Sold Apple And Gave Up Trading [View article]
With $AAPL, $BCE, $BDX, $CMLS, $EWC, $INTC, $NOK, $P, $TWX, $WEN and most other stocks it seems to be more than a coin toss, but we can stick with it.
Let's add another influence to our coin tossing fun. I will call it "edge". Perhaps I took for granted this part was assumed when we talked about odds. Generally I don't enter into trades until the odds are stacked pretty heavily in my favor. As I get older I tend to find more comfort in ending the day positive than ending the day with a lot of commissions from my broker.
still using our favorite standard silver dollar, you find someone who is willing to pay you $1.05 every time it comes up heads and you pay $1 every time it comes up tails. Finding others to take the other side is not very hard to imagine. Casinos find people willing to take bets like these and much worse on a non stop basis.
Every time the coin gets flipped you make on average $0.025 regardless if you win or lose the bet if (and the if is important) you toss the coin enough times (trials) and your capital allows you to stay in the game (risk to ruin positional sizing which is among other important topics written about in the Pendola Options Newsletter http://bit.ly/wbmj9l)
There is a lot of comments and good interaction here in this thread. If you're reading this and wanting to know more about odds, positional sizing of portfolios, lowering risk and sleepless nights, clarifying exit strategies, edges, advantages YOU have over Wall Street (yes there are some and usually not thought about) and advantages they have over you and how to minimize them, then Rocco's newsletter is going to provide answers in the style and tone you're already enjoying here.
One of the best parts is if you email Rocco a question about a subject in the newsletter you get a reply back usually by the next day. Where else are you going to get that kind of service and honesty?
Could this be called a shameless plug for Rocco's newsletter (Rocco has been kind enough to let me play a part)? Sure, but only because after reading the comments it appears a lot of people could really get a lot of value out. The other thing is if I didn't know for a fact almost everyone will be glad they did sign up and continue with their membership I would not bring it up either.
In Wall Street there is a scene with Gecko and Fox where Gecko tells Fox that "information is the most valuable commodity there is" (or something close to that) and I fully agree. Avoiding just a few mistakes a year justifies the cost and learning a new idea or concept (Rocco does a smashing job of communicating complicated concepts into easily understood ways) puts the value way over the top. ok, I turned this comment into an ad (didn't start out that way) but sign up and try it for a month and if you don't like it I am sure he will refund your money.
Why I Am Content That I Sold Apple And Gave Up Trading [View article]
For some this joke may hit a little close to home. Seeking Alpha is an investment site with short term swing positions and options as the “high frequency” types of trading for the most part. I don’t know what the numbers are, but it’s probably a fair statement that many on this site have thought about or tried to trade with greater frequency like day trading. I have been in the same trading chat room for maybe six years hardly missing any days. In that time I have seen many come and go with one almost universal reason why they leave. Just about every story of losing involves a loss of discipline one way or another. Can you make money day trading? Yes, but you have to be willing to work hard and put in the hours and training needed. As many have said it “can be a hard way to make an easy buck”. Crazy enough, after you have done it for a while it actually becomes quite easy like driving a car.
Anyone who has been to Vegas has likely seen all the blackjack tables in the big casinos. It’s no longer a secret anymore that the game can be beat. The reason why the game survives is because there are many people willing to wager money who are also unwilling to put the effort in to become a winner. Many casinos will even let some known card counters play because they know the real edge is the emotion and lack of discipline most have which destroys their capital. The father of card counting Ed Thorp with his book “beat the dealer” is well known too. But did you know he also wrote another book called “beat the market”? Not only did Mr. Thorp make money in blackjack, but he did it on Wall Street too. One can make money and it’s not about luck (the statistics prove it’s not luck), it’s about a lot of time, effort, and study. It should be treated like learning to practice law, medicine, or learning to fly jets. Anything less and well I guess you will have “bad luck”.
Those with the right mental attitude can be spotted by their statements describing the odds and how much they have at risk. Those that are likely to fail are those who think about how much money they can make, don’t know the historic odds, or can’t produce a written plan. The former is not as easy to find as the latter.
I didn’t really come here to point out the failings in some of the comments, but to add some light on what it takes and it is not for most just like flying airplane is not for most including me (I took pilot lessons).
What I did come here for was to say thank you to Rocco for his overly kind and generous words. I have known Rocco for about a year now and if seems like we have been great friends for a long time. It’s been a two way street of rewards and Rocco is one of the most sharing intelligent people I have had the honor to meet. I have been blessed by Rocco letting me participate in his outstanding options newsletter. I believe it is a fair statement to say the response has been incredible with new sign ups every day from all parts of the globe.
Thanks again Rocco, you made my day with your article.
Robert
Jaguar Mining Might Be Oversold [View article]
If what you're asking is how large proportionally I can tell you no single trade changes my lifestyle for better or worse. risk management is what I get paid for, not trying to get lucky.
Research In Motion May Be Attractive With The Right Approach [View article]
4 Long And Short Trades You Can Make Monday Morning [View article]
The short answer for me in considering the pullback is based on technical reasons. The recent climb in price breaking through weak resistance has not been confirmed and the price is just below the 60 and 90 day moving averages (more resistance). I believe the overall market is vulnerable to a pullback after the large run up in prices and the end of the quarter. Also it is simply a lower risk trade if entered in from a lower price. Chasing stocks is not an optimal strategy for me so I often look for pullbacks before entering.
Lastly, it's not just selling calls, its selling covered calls.
Research In Motion May Be Attractive With The Right Approach [View article]
Fear Of 'Fear Index' Tracking ETNs May Provide Opportunity [View article]
Fear Of 'Fear Index' Tracking ETNs May Provide Opportunity [View article]
All else being equal I would say if the VIX moves above by at least a point the odds are in your favor. In order to mitigate expenses (as well as other reasons) you may want to consider selling volatility instead of a straight exposure position.
Fear Of 'Fear Index' Tracking ETNs May Provide Opportunity [View article]
Fear Of 'Fear Index' Tracking ETNs May Provide Opportunity [View article]
yes, even the product makers of the ETNs say the exact thing in their disclaimer (somewhere around page P26-30 if I remember correctly)
Fear Of 'Fear Index' Tracking ETNs May Provide Opportunity [View article]