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Robert Weinstein

 
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  • Youku.com Valuation Reaches Nose-Bleed Levels [View article]
    John,

    Thank you for reading my article and for taking the time to comment.

    I understand what your saying about the power of social networks and I will not dispute that.

    What I believe that is being missed by investors is that I don't think investors will get a return on their investment. The numbers that I have looked at including the ones included in the article demonstrate that $YOKU is no where near being able to provide any reasonable return especially when the risk is factored in.

    Their cost of content is rising and the piracy free ride appears to be slowing. Buying a stock that HOPES to earn enough to give investors a PE of 100+ in two years from China seems to be reaching. I am comfortable with the short just like I was when $CROX was going to the moon as well. I have a pair of CROX shoes on my office shelf to remind me why its important to use "regular accounting" because sanity will return.
    Mar 29 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finisar Insider Sales: A Lesson in Due Diligence [View article]
    Insider information laws are outdated, ineffective and cost the taxpayers millions of dollars a year in wasted expenses by the SEC and other agencies that give the illusion of being able to enforce them.

    Every industry has "insiders". I have several friends that either own or manage car dealerships. You can bet they are on the "inside" and getting the best deals.

    When I worked in importing friends of factories received "inside" information about what was coming down the pipeline.

    Worse yet is giving the illusion that insider trading can be enforced. I think it would be a greater public good to abolish the insider laws and require disclosure of trades. That way the information would get to the public sooner and the market would be more efficient overall. The current system makes criminals out of people who are only acting in their own self interest when that self interest could simply be helping the markets become more efficient. The current system doesn't save market capitalization from being lost it just inefficiently changes who the winners and losers are encouraging illegal acts.

    In the desire to become more "fair" the rules have hurt the very people that they are intended to protect. The average investor outside of Wall St has no way of knowing what to expect during earnings because insiders are not allowed to do what they would naturally do if legally able to. meanwhile people search for illegal trading in hopes of being able to figure out what insiders know. It is beyond stupid. All at the same time that the SEC uses resources to enforce insider trading rules people are running Ponzi schemes right under their noses.
    Mar 21 10:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exit China Agritech, China MediaExpress Positions as Soon as Trading Resumes [View article]
    Hello Douglas,

    I understand many feel that the whole company will implode but few really know what will happen. With all the heat put upon Deloitte lately I would guess it would not have taken much for them to walk away.

    Anyway, the point is that if it is bad the window to get out will close rather quickly. some may think "well I lost this much whats the difference I might as well hang on" and that is in my opinion a losing strategy.

    My goal of the article is to provide some type of compass and remind investors that when the earnings come out (assuming they do and they look bad) that when the market opens up "hope" needs to take a back seat to logic and making the right choices.

    Best

    Robert
    Mar 16 11:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exit China Agritech, China MediaExpress Positions as Soon as Trading Resumes [View article]
    Hello Johnny,

    I did supply three symbols in my article that I did trade. I would believe that you can pull up the symbols on Yahoo and or on SA. You may wish to do so when convenient.

    RINO I believe helps make my point with the article. RINO from my charts:
    Opened near $2 and moved up to a high of $5 before closing near $3.15. RINO has not traded above the high that day since.

    I didn't actually say to exit at the "open" and I believe the largest audience for SA is not full time traders such as myself. The point is that I believe upon trading starting again investors should exit and not "hope" that if they hold it may recover. I will in the future take your comment and use it to improve the message so I thank you.

    Again, I believe from my experience that it is wise to exit sooner than later (in terms of days not minutes) absent a material change in outlook.

    Respectfully,

    Robert
    Mar 15 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vertex Is Not Cheap Medicine [View article]
    Golfing,

    Thank you for reading my article.
    You may have a better understanding of the company than I do. At the same time your lack of understanding of how one can put capital to work without knowing a company does not mean it can not be done repeatedly with success.

    I fade stocks for a living and have done so for years. Often times I do not even know the name of the company much less what they do or what the numbers are. Normally when I do know more than the symbol it is because it is either a familiar name or I have traded it enough times to get to know it.

    Had you read my article and then went and spent the time understanding what type of money manager I am you would have quickly found out that I almost always make money with a success rate well over 95% of my allocations. Few can say that and I trade on any given day several stocks/options. I spend my time focused on learning chart patterns because they repeat over and over. The reason is simple, most people when given a stressful situation (making quick trading decisions) will act relatively in the same manner.

    I doubt any comment here has spent 20+ hours studying this stock but even so do you really think that a couple of days research is going to give you an edge that large money is giving up?

    Your talking about the company and I am talking about the stock. You may know the company better than I do and I will give you that but I know the stock better than you do and that is what determines who gets paid. As far as this stock goes it does not matter in the slightest if I make money on it or not. Statistically I have an edge and given enough trials I will make money. Its as simple as that. No emotion and pure math is what wins the day. For this stock to trade higher you will need someone to look at it and pay more than what it is at now with the thought that they will be able to find another person behind them that will also believe that they can buy it at the higher price and then in turn sell it to another......
    The game doesn't last typically very long when the lines on the chart are going straight up. Absent any more positive news the volume will dry up about 90 minutes after the open on Monday and the price will start to become weak. Stop losses will kick in to protect profits, shorts will build confidence which creates a feedback loop and the price stops moving higher. This happens like clockwork over and over. The stock had three up days in a row. It only takes two for your brain to believe there is a pattern that it will keep going. Today's up day just simply reinforced the incorrect belief and gave confidence at the worst possible time.

    Best of luck to you guys

    Robert
    Mar 4 10:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Building a Brand: A Core Similarity Between Demand Media and Sirius XM [View article]
    Once again great article Rocco. Your writing style really brings out the essence with clarity.
    I can't say that I want to be long SIRI when I know that this month I will cancel my account for Pandora which is free but you have me thinking about the stock.

    Goodluck with SIRI
    Mar 2 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPG Photonics: Eye Popping Chart Due for a Pullback? [View article]
    $IPGP update.
    I remember reading a follow up article in Fortune magazine. In it was a picture that was some type of white powder (legal) substance.

    The article I read was about the fact that the picture used in the first one was not of the actual product. Fortune magazine reprinted a picture showing the real product with a short blurb about how they wanted to always stand on accuracy. I seriously doubt anyone could tell one picture from the other or if they could that they would care. This was over 20 years ago and I still remember it because I believed that Fortune magazine could be counted on for accuracy and if they did find an error they would very clearly make it know.

    I write my articles with the same desire to be accurate not only technically, but also in the spirit and understanding of the message. I want to clarify this article for accuracy.

    What I found in my study was a large amount of insider selling in the last 90 days. Upon further review of the sales I read in “Explanation of Responses” on the SEC form 4 that the largest amounts of the disposed stocks went into a trust that is designed for CEO Dr. Gapontsev's estate planning. This is a much different situation than what the surface review of the numbers indicate. Contrary to the appearance that the recent run-up in price was left on the table and missed by upper management it now appears that the assumption was in large part not correct. While technically my understanding of what happened may have been correct I think it is fair to say that I could have done a better job on that part of the article.
    The motivations of the sale/transfer of the stock does not change the chart pattern that led me to the stock in the first place but it does change my opinion of what management is thinking about the future of the company. If looking at the sales of management into the open market IPGP ranks relatively low compared to many companies I review. Considering the amount of shares still controlled by Dr. Gapontsev I am able to conclude something that often I am not. Namely that it appears that Dr. Gapontsev's interests are aligned with the investors.

    I am still short IPGP and I learned the reason for sales during trading hours today. I had covered much of my short position today but stopped upon reading further into the SEC filings. I do not want even the appearance that I would profit from anything that is not above board. I expect to continue to cover tomorrow depending on price action and after this update
    Feb 16 11:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Stock: Too Good to Be True? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. You make some good points to think about. Lets look a little further into each point. MCP did used to provide metals but shut down due to being uncompetitive. This simple obvious factor could (and I believe highly likely) will limit profits and may in the end cause the whole mining project to shut down again (I understand its hard to imagine that with the current headlines but the news today is the fish wrap tomorrow). The white house will say they will make anything a major initiative if it appears there is political gain. Last thing the person in the White House wants to say is that they are not "working on it".(both political parties). Just like we have FEMA for emergencies I am sure they are putting together a plan. It doesn't mean it will actually help and if I am going to bet for or against the government actually helping a situation I guess I lean towards the government spending a lot but not actually doing a lot.
    Some biotech trades on potential profits years down the road (not the entire as you suggest) but there is a big difference. The biggest difference is that the gains and profits can be huge with a new medicine with patent protection. This is a business of selling a commodity and the winner is who can produce at the lowest cost (again why the mine shut down before is they could not compete)
    China curbing production, Well that is the crutch of the whole thing is it not. Here is an area that I feel I really shine in being able to calculate what will happen. Before I became a full time trader I was in the importing business and I have been to just about every major (and a lot of small ones) city in China (as well as other countries) and I am highly confident that companies will find ways to put product on the market if it is highly profitable to do so. There used to be a saying that still applies today "The emperor can't see this far" meaning the government can not stop people/companies from making money. Plus and this is really important to keep in mind, China may very well have NO plans to actually try to limit the exports. Look at what they have done for their profitability just by saying they will. If they do allow greater than announced exports they will not issue a press release, they will just quietly allow the boats to sail with product being sold at a higher price (for a while) than it would otherwise be. These are very smart people, they know what they are doing and they know they have a year to maybe two year window to push up the prices. After that they go back to the same place and drive MCP out of the mining business. So unlike a hot new medicine that has huge profit potential MCP does not have the ability to sell anything other than a commodity product that China can produce at a lower cost. This is not a receipe for profit in stocks in my opinion.
    Jan 4 08:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Reports Soon, But Holiday Numbers May Mean More [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. One of the best and really, required reading is Options Math for Traders by Scott Nations.

    Once you understand the math behind the "mystery", you can quantify which types of positions are most advantageous.

    Bob
    Aug 2 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Zynga's Earnings Are A Non-Event [View article]
    Thank you, I appreciate your kind words.

    I obviously am in total agreement with you.
    Jul 30 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Continues To Beat Apple, Pandora, And Google Into Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for reading and adding to the conversation.

    Very true, if it delivers a significant beat and guides higher than expected, shorts will scramble to cover.
    Jul 15 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    You're welcome Michael,

    Correct, Alibaba is big in China, but is also big in America (and rest of world) as a wholesale sourcing site. If it wasn't for Yahoo, most non-importers probably would have never heard of it.

    Alibaba's model is closer to ebay in that their main model is putting buyers and sellers together. That said, the fees it charges are magnitudes lower than Amazon and when you put the pieces together - 120 P/E, exploding employee count, diminishing returns due to scale, several large businesses (Kindle, Prime, and others) that are losing money, and competitors that are improving (TGT, WMT, SHLD), you have a situation where the risk outweighs the reward.

    And that is the key. It's not that Amazon CAN'T continue higher, it's that I believe the potential reward isn't large enough to justify the massive risk. This is a stock that could get cut in half and still be expensive. One caveat, I also think it will enjoy a relatively high multiple as long as customer service remains strong. People tend to hold stocks they like and that provides a lifting effect, but just not 100+ multiple.

    Best of luck
    Jul 15 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Earnings, Amazon's Misery [View article]
    Great question Michael,

    Many sellers on Ebay and Amazon already use Alibaba for sourcing. It's a small step to using the same site/look and feel for selling.

    As consumers, you may not heard of /much about Alibaba, but online merchants know it well. Remember, Alibaba is bigger than eBay and Amazon combined in product sales terms. It also happens to be busy hiring US talent. 11main isn't the problem. fear of losing 25% of sales isn't a problem (not right away). The problem is Amazon's 120 P/E multiple that is supported based on investor's belief that revenue will continue growing rapidly.

    All it will take is a slowing of revenue guidance and margin compression to nose-dive the stock price. We've seen this movie too many times to not remember how it ends.
    Jul 14 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Earnings Preview: Can The Chipmaker Repeat Its Last Quarter's Profit [View article]
    Hi Techguy,

    wow, thanks for adding to the conversation.

    I'm ok with being wrong, I'm wrong often. I don't predict the future, only the odds.

    I owned one of the largest, if not the largest PC computer companies in my state at the time, so I know a couple things about consumers comparing CPUs also.

    I also know not to rely heavily on anecdotal evidence, and everything known is already priced in.

    Best of luck, hope you do well with AMD.
    Jul 10 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Earnings Preview: Can The Chipmaker Repeat Its Last Quarter's Profit [View article]
    Hi Tascer,

    Thanks for your kind words, I appreciate it.

    I hope you're correct and it does make a new 52wk high. I know that would be great for many investors and I surely don't have a wish for this one to go lower.

    That said, it may make a new yr high, but that won't diminish my overall opinion that it's highly speculative. The Beta is 2.2, and that's a level most consider volatile and speculative.

    Best of luck
    Jul 10 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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