Robert Weinstein

Why I Am Shorting Treasury 30 Year Bonds via Treasury Futures

Hello outtafavr,

Thanks for your comment and your not alone in your feelings about the market in this or others too.

I also believe that the US markets are not free from being manipulated but I also think that relative to other countries the US operates in either the fairest or as fair as any other country. Also while 'big money' does have advantages there are also advantages to being smaller.

Best to you

Robert



On Aug 19 04:56 PM outtafavr wrote:

> The market for this product is not free. Auctions of this product
> are manipulated and the manipulators readily acknowledge their wrongdoing,
> carrying out their crime on a grand scale. How can you justify any
> positions, long or short, in such a lawless environment?

Why I Am Shorting Treasury 30 Year Bonds via Treasury Futures

Hello Bruno,

Thanks for your comment and its a good question as there are many ways to gain exposure to Treasury bonds

I can just as easily trade futures as I can equities with my 'universal trading account' so while I generally(90/10) stick with equities I am short the Treasury 30 year bonds via the ECBOT treasury futures/ futures options (as I write this I am currently short naked future call options).

I will often take a position that I want to be in for more than a few days via naked options as it offers lower risk than taking an outright position and I am able to gain the time premium if I am going to be in the underlining anyway. This of course is offset somewhat by not being able to get the full profit potential and is not a strategy that is appropriate for those without a full understanding of the details of options and their pricing.

I have also looked at the ETFs and again if I was to gain exposure via ETFs I would do so writing naked options as I am risk averse and willing to give up home runs and take singles and doubles. (not that I am suggesting anyone else trade options)

Respectfully,

Robert


On Aug 19 02:55 PM Bruno Brasil wrote:

> Hi Robert,
>
> I am heavily shorting treasury using TBT, which is not a perfect
> instrument. Can you be more specific on the other instruments you
> use?

Why I Am Shorting Treasury 30 Year Bonds via Treasury Futures

Hello Steve,

Thank you for your comments.

Not any more or less 'nervous' than I am with any of my other longer term trades (non day trade). I could go on much further in my reasoning but it literally could have turned into a short book.

I have been short via writing calls against the futures contracts since early July and have already booked some gains. I was asked in the chat room I spend my days why I was short the bonds and that's what motivated me to write the post.

I think you bring up some interesting points about the stock market and I also for the most part not bullish in equities. The relatively inverse relationship in my opinion could decouple or minimally loosen up greatly upon the Chinese (or others) not coming to the table to buy.

It will be an interesting week coming up

Best to you

Robert


On Aug 18 05:34 PM Steve Pasq wrote:

> You must be nervous with all the explaining about the obvious reasons
> the treasury is issuing more and more debt. I'm long because your
> side is pretty crowded right now. Also 4% interest is better than
> the negative numbers associated with equities over the past few years.
>
>
> Frankly I believe stocks could be headed to new lows and long term
> treasuries are headed to new highs. It might seem hard to believe
> but look at the charts. All the reasoning and fundamental analysis
> doesn't change the fact that stocks are in a long-term down trend
> and the long bond is in a long-term up trend. And even having a
> liberal nut in the white house doesn't change that.