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Robert Weinstein
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Follow me on https://twitter.com/#!/RobertWeinstein Owner of 1 Reason Insurance, a full-line insurance agency licensed in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and 1 Reason Real Estate, licensed in Wisconsin. http;//1reason.com Let's connect on Linkedin http://www.linkedin.com/pub/robert-weinstein/12/129/651... More
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1 Reason Insurance
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Robert Weinstein Trading Blog
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  • Trading Results 3/25/11

    Wow, can you believe that investors are driving the price of $YOKU higher?

    It would appear that some people have been living under a rock and have not noticed that lately at least one stock a week has been getting slammed by accounting fraud allegations. This of course makes investors leery of any Chinese Stock with good reason. YOKU has not profits and appears to be about a perfect setup for the next Chinese stock that may be targeted. I will be following up with more but at best it appears that the full valuation is built in and if any negative news comes out next week by any Chinese stock will likely produce more headwind. If someone uncovers anything with this one it is likely to see a very large drop in price. Because of the headline risk I started to fade the move higher and sold call options.

    I also sold some $DTG options and stock as it appears ready to retrace its move back from its huge runup in price.

    Lastly, I shorted a very small amount of $SIRI so I could put my money were my keyboard is as I am about to release a bearish article on SIRI.

    Have a great weekend

    Mar 25 7:46 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Trading Results 3/24/11

    Today started out a little shaky with a raised price target for VRUS but that appeared to be more of a sell side promotion than a real opinion that VRUS is going higher.

    VRUS gapped higher at the open and quickly found the way back down. By the end of the day VRUS gave back most of the gains and closed much lower than the open and near the low of the day. Fortunately largely as a part of the high implied volatility premium I was a seller of puts yesterday to hedge against the calls that I wrote. The puts largely mitigated the increase in value of the calls. Starting next week the time decay will become noticeable as it accelerates with 16 trading days left before expiration.

    I had a few trades today including RHT, YOKU, and EBIX. I shorted YOKU calls today expecting that at a minimum the price will not be able to move higher faster than the time decay and with all the Chinese headline risk lately it would appear more likely when than if YOKU gets attention due to its current PnL. I am currently small with my synthetic short but plan on adding next week.

    EBIX gave a William long signal at 21.18 which was pretty impressive considering the low of the day was 21.08. I was actually already trading back and forth along as a result of the price action and stayed small until the price approached the William signal at which point I added considerable size.

    RHT gave a Brenton short signal and I faded the gap but kept the size small but also made most of the target other than the last unit which I was looking for an outsized gain but had to settle for less when the price moved back higher. As it turned out I did about as good as I was going to do.
    EBIX + 523
    RHT + 283
    Today + 807

    Mar 24 8:08 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Trading Results 3/23/11

    Tough trading day today.

    Not only did I not get any real trades today but the big holds from yesterday worked against me as well. MCP did give me a brief moment to get out whole but I had already stopped out and moved on. VRUS continued to move higher today. I record a gain with the stock but some of the options have moved against me. I substituted put options for the stock as a hedge against the calls I wrote. I have been meaning to do this for several days and I paid dearly for the delay. I did get it done today and I will now get time decay on both the calls and puts. The nine day moving average is 62.81 and I expect that the moving average and the price will converge and VRUS will again trade in a range or slowly grind its way back towards the 55 level as interest moves to VRTX. Not that VRTX is that much better (even though it might be) but from news that is expected to come from them first. MU was an after hours trade based on the round number magnet effect. PANL was a call out from the chat room that I decided I didn’t like anymore simply because I had a small number of shares and I was watching it when I could have been getting other work done. So I closed it out and started working on a book review and an article about SIRI. WTW was my best trade of the day and was a Laurel signal trade.

    I did manage to get a little bit today to mitigate what is otherwise be an unpleasant day.
    JBL + 25
    MCP - 3394
    MU + 60
    PANL + 18
    VRUS + 631
    WTW + 314
    - 2343

    Mar 23 6:57 PM | Link | Comment!
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