Robert Wu

Long/short equity, special situations, growth at reasonable price, arbitrage
Robert Wu
Long/short equity, special situations, growth at reasonable price, arbitrage
Contributor since: 2013
The next upgrade cycle is not going to be great. If you look at Samsung, the big screen size change generated phenomenon sales. After that, all the upgrades are so so. If same thing happened to Apple, the upgrade from 5 to 6 would be the biggest. The high expectation of upgrade from 6 to 7 will be crushed. It may already reflected in the share price (I don't know).
Is there a way to test HA level before the treatment is given. If not, the data can be manipulated.
Sina is a assets rich and growth poor company. Sum of the parts is much bigger than the whole. Just like Yahoo a year ago. Someone will find a way to get the value unlocked.
Very good article and informative. Do they need to raise money any time soon?
The probability of a takeover is high but the premium will be limited. Probably low 20s.
My sense the opening weekend will generate $85 to 90 million. The movie is as good as the book.
Juchs, thank you for your detailed analysis. I do believe that Divergent needs to come close to Hunger Game. The opening weekend box office needs to be close to 130million. If it is 100 million, there will be a sell-off.
fair price is around $28. Divergent may exceed expectation.
fair price is around $28. Divergent mat exceed expectation.
Thank you. I did not argue the likelihood of Apple buying BBRY. I just find it is making sense for Apple to consider it. GOOG did not degrade its brand by buying MOT.
I understood all the positives about LGF. That's why I recommended the stock in Feb. But everything has a price. At this stage, I believe the risks are being underestimated.
LGF did not have a major hit for many years until Hunger Game came. Nobody knows when the next hit will come. It is difficult to sell when everything is on fire but usually it is the right move.
RP withdrew the legal challenge which signal a negotiation is underway. Outcome is not guaranteed.
Divtra. Thank you for the info. It is a quarterly number. Sorry my mistake.
At close to 470, AAPL is approaching my target. I sold some covered calls today @500 strike.
Alibaba is very competitive. But I am not sure about the profits. If it's IPO comes out anywhere near $100 billion, I would not touch it. In terms of e-commerce market in China, I do not think Amazon will be successful against Alibaba
I don't see many moats for Amazon. Mostly compete on price. Difficult to improve margin.
I sold INTC covered calls @25. Would be be happy to collect dividend or be called away.
Very good article. The soundness of a business fundamentally depends on the barriers for competitors to enter. There re not much barriers here except the brand. Low barrier will make it difficult to improve gross margin.
What happened today on commodities is further reducing the probability for BHP to proceed with Jansen project.
Reserve is just one variable for valuation. The cost of producing, potential liability and price of crude are important variables to consider to value the stock price. In my opinion, FCX is not undervalued in comparison to other mining companies. But you can argue the whole mining space is undervalued, which I agree to a certain degree.
Thank you. There are too many short term thinking in analyzing POT. Analysts tend to focus on planting acreages, farmers income, contracts with China and India, weather and so on. In my view, all these factors will balance out in a cycle. Demand will be stable in long run. The emphasis should be on supply side.
Thanks. For Jansen project, 9 mm tonnes is the expected peak production at 2026 as I stated in the article. I agree with you, that's very ambitious.
Thank you Larry. I just want people to consider things may grow slower (not stop growing) than the last 20 years.
Operating cash flow can be manipulated by delay the payment to third party.
Panama Canal expansion will be finished in less than two years. That's a fact. That World economy will continue the path it is on is a wishful thinking. It may or may not happen. Given the collapsing of The Baltic dry index, it is unlikely that maritime shipping will growth rapidly. Prince Rupert is a special case. I did some consulting work in 2005 for a pipeline company try to lobby the government to expand that port. It has unique advantage of closeness to some nature resources Canada can offer to Asia.
Business will service East Coast ports.
I am not saying the volume would drop, just the growth will slow. You cannot deny over last 20 years, a major part of the railway volume growth came from imports from Asia and Exports to Asia.
This is probably more environment concerns than costs. Thank you for mentioning.
Yahoo sold 50% of its Alibaba's holding for 7.1 billion, after tax it is 4.3 billion ( Currently, Yahoo owns 20% of Alibab. Even Alibaba is valued at 55 billion (I highly doubt about it. Currently the best web company in China, Baidu is only worth about 29.75 billion. Baidu has more revenue and profits but less debt than Alibaba), Yahoo's stake is worth about 11 billion before tax.
More realistically, the remaining 20% of Alibaba is worth about $8 billion (12% increase in about 6 months). After tax, around $5 billion
Since Yahoo get into Alibaba at very early stage, most of the stake in Alibaba will be gains and fully taxable. You have to take 30-40% off.
Although I may not like it, P/E and eps are still measures investment community look at.
You are wrong on the Def tax Benefit. $151 million in def tax benefit actually reduce the OCF.
Your point on stock comp makes sense. But if you offset Def Tax with stock comp. The impact is small.