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Rocco Pendola

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  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    Interesting comments here.

    I think the original content development and the motivation behind it is really interesting.
    Mar 20 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    That is excellent. Thanks for posting it.
    Mar 17 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    It's like books... authors sign separate deals by geography. NFLX has to pay for the content just like joey554 says.

    I would like to hear to response to points I brought up in the article, Nick. And I say this with sincerity and all due respect. Even though we disagree, I appreciate your points. You clearly are bullish on the company and have good insight. I welcome them!
    Mar 15 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    Of course, they are short on details, but NFLX notes in its shareholder letter that it has "no brand or content until we invest locally" in international markets. What do you think they'll do? Hire people to stand at corners in costume waving signs with arrows. I doubt it. They need to create and raise brand awareness big time.

    Look at the revenue per subscriber... it's not good. And their reason for why it's down does not inspire confidence. They will need astonishing growth to keep up with declining revenue per subscriber, an increase in people going to cheaper plans, and the entry costs to go global.
    Mar 15 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    You are ignoring, or omitting, or at least glossing over the significant costs NFLX will occur to enter new markets, as their current base tends toward lower-priced plans and continues to churn at a relatively high rate...
    Mar 15 11:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    Clearly. And go read the link to the annual report I posted. Watch NFLX sort of glide over the costs of marketing when they expand to new markets.
    Mar 15 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    I am not sure that data limits will hurt NFLX, although I know some heavy users, just like I don't think it will hurt Pandora.

    The bottom is in the numbers that I lay out in my article. Paid v. free, churn, and an int'l grow pace that's not a guarantee by any means and surely cannot keep up with what needs to happen to keep the stock price from declining further.
    Mar 14 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    We are arguing semantics here, but I think it matters.

    It's a big if. Their discussion of int'l expansion is vague at best. Granted, it could be for competitive reasons.

    But they are vague throughout their communications. They use the low-priced subscriptions reason for the decrease in rev per subscriber and then simply move on. This is huge, as it coincides with an increase in free subs and a decrease in paid.

    And look at Pyke's excellent article I cited on growth and churn V. SIRI. There's no way NFLX can keep this up. And the costs to expand could very well offset the decrease in growth it looks like they'll see.

    They had a great idea. Still is. But there's no way they can grow to support themselves as a $200 stock... and maybe much less than that.

    And it's all good, Rob. I take no offense to your comments, etc. I sincerely appreciate them.

    Rocco
    Mar 14 01:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Rob. I appreciate it.

    I guess you could read it that way. But that's not what it says. It clearly states the following trajectory -- we gain confidence by getting to profitability in less than eight quarters. If they meant something else they should have said something else. These reports, releases, and letters are no time to be subtle... or unclear. As I said, it does not inspire confidence in the least.
    Mar 14 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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