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Rocco Pendola

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  • Tesla: The Looming Short Squeeze [View article]
    "I try to focus here only on a pure market phenomenon that has relevance in the short term."

    Well-stated. Could not agree more, particularly in the case of Tesla.

    Great article. Lots to consider. Keep it up!
    Sep 1, 2011. 08:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's EV Impact: Location, Location, Location [View article]
    Hey, thanks for the comment. Much appreciated.

    The bears do make the company sound like one without much of a vision, but with a passivity that merely will die in the face of insurmountable forces they have either ignored or chosen not to acknowledge. I think that's where the exaggeration lays.

    But, again, thanks for the insight into rhetoric.
    Jul 3, 2011. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's EV Impact: Location, Location, Location [View article]
    I do, bazooooka, but, let's face it, you were telling incomplete stories in previous posts, which made me feel like I needed to work harder than I already do. That irks me. :-)

    I am not suspect on the 20K. I am just relaying the company's plans. It would be crazy to think and of them to decide to produce 20K out of the gate. They're scaling in and to more profitability the right way despite the calls that they're somehow an irresponsible lot.

    There's more than the cars. They have the development services, which I suspect they intend to grow. And I think they're doing their own leasing thing. I have not looked into it enough to see if it will generate any revenue. I suspect it might not be significant.
    Jun 20, 2011. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's EV Impact: Location, Location, Location [View article]
    I am done talking to you about this. You ignore the answers to your questions.

    Last time.

    What are the prices of the different battery pack options?

    "Three battery options are offered: 160-, 230-, or 300-mile range. Model S comes standard with the 160-mile range battery at the quoted $49,900 base price (after the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit). The 230-mile and 300-mile range batteries are optional upgrades. The 230-mile range option is priced at about $10,000 more than the base and the 300-mile option at about $20,000 more than the base."

    How many Model S units will Tesla produce each year?

    "Tesla plans to produce 20,000 Model S units annually. In 2012, Tesla expects to produce around 5,000 to 7,000 vehicles as the Tesla Factory reaches its planned production capacity."

    It starts at $57,400. 5,000 at THAT price - the lowest price -- is about $287M in sales.

    At 7,000 cars, that's $402M.

    If they did half of the 20,000 they can produce -- that's $574M.

    And that, again, is on the low-end model.

    They have over 4,600 reservations for the Model S...

    On the last call, they said they can increase production if demand warrants...

    Look at this SEC filing and see that development services revenue went from $227,000 in the March quarter 2010 to $15.4 million in the March quarter 2011. If you do not know what development services, they speak quite thoroughly about them in the 10-Q and annual report.

    How many years will the battery last?

    "Based on testing, Tesla expects the battery to retain approximately 70% of its initial capacity after seven years or 100,000 miles."

    From the FAQ page.

    You can confirm all of this with outside, independent sources. Just make sure you're not reading about some b.s. Chinese EV, a Wheego, or even a Volt (not an EV) or a Leaf.

    I understand it is not easy to do the work to become informed because I do the work for about 12-15 hours a day. I do not begrudge those who do not have the time or inclination to do what I do, but stop spreading misinformation.

    Click on the links, read them for confirmation of what I say and more information. And, although I can provide them, you can verify every bit of info with outside sources.

    Tesla is the real deal.

    Based on the numbers, I think it "grows into its valuation" some time in 2013, but I do not gauge these types of stocks on that basis. These hyper-growth stocks with dynamic products and prolific business will ALWAYS be overvalued, so come 2013, the valuation will be high for whatever amount of revenue they have.

    I just sweat for you for about 15 minutes. I am not sure why. I hope this helps others as well. It's not, however, like this info has not been included in my previous articles as well as those of others.
    Jun 20, 2011. 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's EV Impact: Location, Location, Location [View article]
    First, they are not even in the "$25k-50k EV market" so I am not sure what you are talking about.

    Second, I have provided countless links to outside sources at Tesla and elsewhere. Click them please and maybe you would stop spreading misinformation on battery life.

    You provide no basis about this growing into their valuation line. Sounds good and, yeah, they need to do it, but you make it sound like if they produce the # of cars the say they will produce and sell them all, they still will not do it. I say you are wrong. Remember they not only make and sell cars; they are seeing increasing revenues through their development deals. Read the quarterly and annual reports.
    Jun 20, 2011. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's EV Impact: Location, Location, Location [View article]
    On the last call, they clearly stated, if demand warrants they will make more in the first year. There's always distortion in both bull and bear cases, I guess, but in the bear case there's really just a profound dishonesty and/or lack of understanding, as if no actual due diligence has been done.

    Like Ramon says, the numbers portend a profitable company, on their timeline. Just as Tesla does market research, re: dealership locations, they study the finances and have a plan to make it work. I hate making obvious statements but I guess they need to be made. Once I counter and render powerless the arguments about the market, the bears move on to something else... it's funny.

    Stop crying overvalued! I have explained my stance, at least, on that.
    Jun 20, 2011. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's EV Impact: Location, Location, Location [View article]
    Yeah, I agree Ramon. I sort of despise the Volt. All its entry does is create more confusion. I don't mind the Leaf, but it is certainly in a different class than the Model S. The Model S is a bonafied luxury car that just so happens to be electric. Between home chargers and the expanding network of chargers out on the street, range is becoming a non-issue.

    That said, those who cannot buy a Model S might opt for a Leaf, Focus, or some other less expensive EV, even if there's no real comparison.
    Jun 20, 2011. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's EV Impact: Location, Location, Location [View article]
    You're coming along. Very nice. :-)

    I do not need an entire article to explain the obvious. Valuation means nothing today in relation to the stock price, clearly. What matter is future prospects. That's what people are buying. These types of stocks will always be "overvalued" until they prove, once and for all, it was just a mirage (i.e., NFLX) or that they are actually for real (i.e., AMZN).
    Jun 20, 2011. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing Behavior: The Biggest Obstacle to Electric Vehicle Adoption [View article]
    Good points and, best of all, well-stated.

    Thank you.
    Jun 20, 2011. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Rocks On [View article]
    Look at the locations listed... as I have been saying, Tesla and other EV companies do not need much of the rest of the nation; it's irrelevant geography.
    Jun 19, 2011. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Rocks On [View article]
    It's definitely just a prestige thing. No doubt, whatsoever. People who would otherwise buy a Jaguar or fancy BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, Infiniti, etc,etc... might opt for a Model S. Again, I have made my position quite clear -- Tesla is not about mass market at all. They have and will have a very specific -- demo and location specific - customer, just as luxury car makers do. The Model X will open things up a bit more.

    While that's a similar trajectory with AAPL, I realize it is not the same. AAPL is much more accessible. As I have also made clear, the comparison to AAPL is with the retail strategy and the notion that Tesla's model is more like Apple's and less like an automakers.

    I have not put in an order yet. If I had lots of disposable income OR was in the market for a luxury car, there's a good chance I would. I do not drive. I ride a bike and walk everywhere. Not a huge car fan, but I think the Model S is pretty slick, from what I have seen.
    Jun 19, 2011. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Rocks On [View article]
    You've got it all figured out. Congratulations. I hope to never get there.
    Jun 19, 2011. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Rocks On [View article]
    This is pretty funny. Apples and oranges.

    Do some more research and get back to us. Or, better yet, just do a little more thinking.
    Jun 19, 2011. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Rocks On [View article]
    Yeah, exactly what I said. It's all secondary to the story, potential with many companies. For many, it's all a house of cards, in my opinion (e.g., NFLX); for others, I think they come through and sustain (e.g., TSLA). It's a difference of outlook we have here. Nobody is correct at this point and we'll probably never know definitively. But, any firm proclamations (which I am not making) are insane and self-righteous.
    Jun 19, 2011. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Rocks On [View article]
    The type of logic you're trying to use is type of thing gets shot down in college, no, high school classrooms every single day. Give it a rest.
    Jun 19, 2011. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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