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Rochelle Jenks  

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  • Francesca's Holdings: In A Grace Period But Earnings And Guidance Don't Warrant Grace [View article]
    I took a quick look at Chico's most recent quarter after I saw it will be closing some stores. It's SS sales in the holiday quarter were up 4% year-over-year. Not that I think Francesca's carries near the quality of merchandise that Chico's does, but it did make me wonder what type of performance warranted Chico's move to close stores. If up 4% doesn't protect you, then up 1% certainly won't.
    I saw the same contradiction you saw regarding the discussion about apparel. When the discussion got into the details of lace, I couldn't help but think that this, too, shall soon pass. I won't be surprised to see a 6th line-up.
    Mar 28, 2015. 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Francesca's Holdings: Under The Masks - Problems Then, Now And Ahead [View article]
    I hope you can get out at breakeven or better, seeking. I agree with you that the next year shows no upside based on the earnings call. There seemed to be a consistent theme of needing more time..... One has to ask how much Mr. Barnes really wants to learn about female apparel.

    I know we've been on opposite sides of this view but I thoroughly appreciate being able to discuss this company (and others) with you.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Lexmark International's Fourth-Quarter Earnings [View article]
    Working on an article as we speak....I think there's more to the story than document capture......
    Mar 25, 2015. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Francesca's Holdings: Under The Masks - Problems Then, Now And Ahead [View article]
    So you don't equate the SS guidance as management's admission that they don't expect to have the right assortment?
    Mar 25, 2015. 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Francesca's Holdings: Under The Masks - Problems Then, Now And Ahead [View article]
    Oh it's broken!! My comment about giving them credit was sarcastic. It's lucky for them the market is down today - FRAN's guidance is taking a back seat in the headlines.

    But, I think your comment may have been directed at the comment that "the broken thesis appears broken for now"?
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Francesca's Holdings: Under The Masks - Problems Then, Now And Ahead [View article]
    I have to give them credit - even I was surprised at the guidance. I didn't think it would be forecast that low. Perhaps management is going to "under-promise", update guidance mid-quarter and then "deliver". If so, it just screams of throwing darts at a board. Earnings article in the works..............
    Mar 25, 2015. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hornbeck Offshore Services And The Promise Of The Deepwater [View article]
    jarik,

    Thanks for reading and adding to the discussion. Yes, it could be related to shorting.
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hornbeck Offshore Services And The Promise Of The Deepwater [View article]
    nowheel, not to sound sassy, but I think the best answer is yes. I do believe the negotiations are made by vessel dependent on factors such as location, customer, vessel capabilities, etc. And, yes, I also believe the industry tracks the information and providers use current rates as a contributing factor in negotiations. You might want to explore http://www.ihs.com or http://www.rigzone.com or http://bit.ly/1DWdsLq for examples of available data.

    Thank you so much for reading and adding to the discussion.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceutical: Bold Markets, Bold Moves [View article]
    Thank you Banker!
    Mar 23, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceutical: Bold Markets, Bold Moves [View article]
    Thank you! Good luck with your investment!
    Mar 20, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Presto Industries: Diapers=Mess, Ammo=Shots, And Appliances=Autopilot [View article]
    Thank you for the kind words. I too wish the company had a different story to tell.
    Mar 19, 2015. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hornbeck Offshore Services And The Promise Of The Deepwater [View article]
    Ringo,

    I'm not sure if the discount is "huge", but I do believe Hornbeck's investment and subsequent associated debt level is the culprit in the equation. The company does believe it is past the high point of the debt.

    Thank you for continuing the discussion!
    Mar 19, 2015. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hornbeck Offshore Services And The Promise Of The Deepwater [View article]
    Brent,

    Thanks for reading and for the great questions! I don't have exact answers for either question. But, here's some information that may provide some clarity on both subjects.

    On the cost of stacking/unstacking - Hornbeck is stacking older vessels. Thus, these vessels tend to be more depreciated on the books. From the last earnings call:
    "But the stacking strategy probably would account for around $20 million of the year-over-year decrease in overall OpEx."
    That savings in OpEx is based on an assumption of 11.4 stacked vessels for 2015. Part of the savings comes from this explanation in the call:
    "And so what we call our bench, our reserve fleet of mariners, is dwindling down to where we may only be carrying 30 or 40 mariners on the bench as oppose to 80 to 100."
    Therefore, part of the cost to "unstack" or activate a vessel would be in human resources. All of the changes in Hornbeck's "bench" were not attributable to stacking though. The company has been in a training phase due to the newbuild program. That training is mostly complete.

    On the break-even price in the Gulf, Hornbeck explained that the decisions are not wholly made on that point. First, there is a cost to "stack" the rig, as explained on the call:
    "The most compelling argument for rig renewals at lower rates is the prohibitively high cost of stacking at drilling rigs which approaches the variable daily cash breakeven cost of continuing to operate the rig, it just drives you there."
    The following statement explains another motivator:
    "Because as markets change we all know that they don't do it uniformly and the big risk for ultra-deepwater operators is that large equipment leaves the area because another market may pick up sooner than they do."
    Coupling the above remark with the reality that Hornbeck offers a higher-spec fleet and it's reasonable to believe its customers will consider both factors before choosing not to renew.

    I truly value the opportunity to discuss these subjects that can help make us all better investors.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Presto Industries: Diapers=Mess, Ammo=Shots, And Appliances=Autopilot [View article]
    Yours is a way to put a positive spin on the issue. But, the fact is they have not made up for the loss of the huge customer's revenue in well over four years. They have not replaced the huge customer spending nearly $60 million annually with a customer large enough to even spend $6.5 million a year. That's a huge wake-up call when you consider the company has invested over $50 million into the AP segment. That's hardly an ROI most would consider healthy. While this segment flounders, the housewares segment, which helped build the company appears to be ignored. Why? The company admits the AP segment is highly competitive and offers much lower margins. The company admits it only wants to manufacture knock-off products in that segment so the margins will be even lower than name-brand product. And, by the way, it wasn't the loss of the customer that put the company in a tailspin. The customer reacted to the announcement that NPK wanted to expand in that segment.....an announcement that, in hindsight, was not only premature but destructive to shareholder returns. Have your dividends not been cut in half since the announcement? You're funding the mess in the AP segment.

    Thank you for reading and opening up the discussion. I do believe it helps us all be better investors - even when we don't agree.
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceutical: Bold Markets, Bold Moves [View article]
    Thanks for the comment!
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
345 Comments
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