Francesca's Holdings: Updating Its Path Forward - Fuzzy Or Defined? [View article]
Everything you say is true IF they manage to get to 900 stores.......I can't say I ever bought into that part of the story. But, good luck! I agree with your philosophy of finding small, growing companies. I just try to look for ones where the growth story is believable. FRAN didn't fit that model for me. I see relatively little difference in what they do compared to established retailers.
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
jcbonacci1,
Not a problem. In some ways, I understand your comparison. In other ways, I don't. Both are robotic-assisted surgery, yes, but a different market. So, while you may be correct that it will never be Intuitive with a $20B market cap, it doesn't mean it can't be a successful business even though smaller.
I absolutely appreciate your discussion. It's critical that investors consider all sides of a subject and I'm honored you took the time to comment.
Francesca's Holdings: Updating Its Path Forward - Fuzzy Or Defined? [View article]
kev,
In my first article and first look at FRAN, I explained that I didn't see it being a mall mainstay in 7 years. I compared it to the stocks that were being declared "hot" a decade ago and their current status. My projection was that for a "buy and hold" type of investor, FRAN would not be an appropriate investment.
There is no denying the stock has been "hot" and that it has institutional support. No doubt for more of a trader, there is money to be made. I do believe it will fall out of favor for the reasons you listed as my "negative remarks". So, if you want to trade it and watch it constantly, I would say go for it.
From a consumer's standpoint, I did not see the allure of FRAN's offerings compared to its competitors. Maria, obviously, disagrees with me as she LOVES Francesca's products. But, I don't see it as any type of disruptor in the retail industry.
I actually think you hit the nail on the head when you ask why the steep drop in SSS is being given as new management takes the reins - and, as you describe, it is management with impressive retail credentials. I wasn't a FRAN fan before all of that - and, without a doubt, those details cloud even its near-term future for me.
But, overall, my call is still based on whether FRAN will be a thriving business by 2020 in malls across America. And, it's just not a place I want to park my money. It's not growth I feel I can trust - so maybe it is somewhat a "gut feeling" - but it's a gut feeling based on the logic and stats in the retail industry.
I hope I answered your question. If not, don't hesitate to let me know.
I really appreciate the discussion. I honestly believe it helps all of us to hear different points of view.
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
Thanks!
You are correct - projection was 45-48. They sold 5 which means 40-43 are left....which is what I said. I wondered when I wrote that if I should have spelled that out.
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
I applaud SLCA in looking toward the future regarding the decision to sell 100 mesh at smaller margins in order to protect contract renegotiations. But, overall, doesn't that decision support the premise that SLCA recognizes its customers have a choice regarding in which sandbox (pun intended) to play? That wasn't necessarily the case in 2011 and 2012 - which led to the industry boom. The playing field has changed. Just a thought.
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
Just curious - Are you saying that you don't buy into the "supply has met demand" thesis? Do you believe SLCA should be valued as an aggressive-growth stock?
I appreciate all you are adding to the conversation. Information makes us all better investors.
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
I'm thinking the spend on the Stanmore assets would have been capital. They did have legal expenses relative to that.
They call out the $1.3 million medical device excise tax effective 1/1/13 and a $660K derivative asset change in fair value as the notable differences in the quarter.
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
My point is that a would-be investor needs to decide why they would be investing in SLCA before investing. Current investors need to realize the story has changed in just a year. The long-term EPS growth estimate of 40% isn't telling the whole story.
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
unclemike, Great question! But, unfortunately, the $22.7 million was capital expenditures rather than operating expenses.
For 1Q13, SLCA had $122 million in revenue and $74 million in cost of goods sold. By comparison, 1Q12 had $102 million in revenue and $57 million in COGS. So, while revenue increased $20 million YOY, COGS increased $17 million YOY - basically wiping out the revenue increase. Selling and general administrative expense increases YOY ate the other $3 million.
Francesca's Holdings: Updating Its Path Forward - Fuzzy Or Defined? [View article]
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
Not a problem. In some ways, I understand your comparison. In other ways, I don't. Both are robotic-assisted surgery, yes, but a different market. So, while you may be correct that it will never be Intuitive with a $20B market cap, it doesn't mean it can't be a successful business even though smaller.
I absolutely appreciate your discussion. It's critical that investors consider all sides of a subject and I'm honored you took the time to comment.
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
Francesca's Holdings: Updating Its Path Forward - Fuzzy Or Defined? [View article]
In my first article and first look at FRAN, I explained that I didn't see it being a mall mainstay in 7 years. I compared it to the stocks that were being declared "hot" a decade ago and their current status. My projection was that for a "buy and hold" type of investor, FRAN would not be an appropriate investment.
There is no denying the stock has been "hot" and that it has institutional support. No doubt for more of a trader, there is money to be made. I do believe it will fall out of favor for the reasons you listed as my "negative remarks". So, if you want to trade it and watch it constantly, I would say go for it.
From a consumer's standpoint, I did not see the allure of FRAN's offerings compared to its competitors. Maria, obviously, disagrees with me as she LOVES Francesca's products. But, I don't see it as any type of disruptor in the retail industry.
I actually think you hit the nail on the head when you ask why the steep drop in SSS is being given as new management takes the reins - and, as you describe, it is management with impressive retail credentials. I wasn't a FRAN fan before all of that - and, without a doubt, those details cloud even its near-term future for me.
But, overall, my call is still based on whether FRAN will be a thriving business by 2020 in malls across America. And, it's just not a place I want to park my money. It's not growth I feel I can trust - so maybe it is somewhat a "gut feeling" - but it's a gut feeling based on the logic and stats in the retail industry.
I hope I answered your question. If not, don't hesitate to let me know.
I really appreciate the discussion. I honestly believe it helps all of us to hear different points of view.
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
You are correct - projection was 45-48. They sold 5 which means 40-43 are left....which is what I said. I wondered when I wrote that if I should have spelled that out.
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
I did not say there were 80+ sand companies "like" SLCA.
I said it looks like they will end up being one of the "big guys". How does that frighten an investor? A trader, maybe, but not an investor.
A $0.30 drop is a large percentage?
Thanks for reading the article so carefully! Oh, and thanks for the laugh!
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
I appreciate all you are adding to the conversation. Information makes us all better investors.
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
Will MAKO Surgical Reach Profitability Before 2015? [View article]
They call out the $1.3 million medical device excise tax effective 1/1/13 and a $660K derivative asset change in fair value as the notable differences in the quarter.
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
U.S. Silica Holdings: Is It #2, A 'Big Guy' Or What? [View article]
Great question! But, unfortunately, the $22.7 million was capital expenditures rather than operating expenses.
For 1Q13, SLCA had $122 million in revenue and $74 million in cost of goods sold. By comparison, 1Q12 had $102 million in revenue and $57 million in COGS. So, while revenue increased $20 million YOY, COGS increased $17 million YOY - basically wiping out the revenue increase. Selling and general administrative expense increases YOY ate the other $3 million.