Rod Raynovich

Research analyst, etf investing, portfolio strategy, long/short equity
Rod Raynovich
Research analyst, ETF investing, portfolio strategy, long/short equity
Contributor since: 2010
Company: Raygent Capital
SBIO I do not know it but it does have some interesting small cap speculative picks. Up 35% YTD. A small ETF under $200M but worth considering. I will monitor more closely.Has more of an XBI profile.
I also own HQL but it trails IBB YTD by 7% points.
Thanks Peter. I have written several articles on biotech ETFs and can provide some quick comments. The XBI has been a leader beating other ETFs YTD, up about 35% until today. The XBI underweights large cap biotechs and its top holdings include volatile smaller caps at about 1-2%. An unusual feature of the XBI is the rapid rebalancing or turnover that implies an algorithmic model.This makes it difficult to monitor holdings even on a weekly basis.
Ha ha Sorry Juan, just saw this reviewing posts. Yes NSTG is still on my focus list. My portfolios are updated on a regular basis:
As a curiosity I just checked on FIDO, no shorts available and 43% interest!
You will notice more and more bigger premiums for shorting stocks.
Another example HYG, a high yield ETF not shortable with a 5.5% cost to borrow PLUS yield.
ILMN is too expensive for DHR, RHBBY or TMO. More likely that ILMN will buy something in drugs or Dx.
This is a cult stock with a product concept and business model that cannot be challenged until we get 9+ mos. sales data. It is always about future potential. In the meantime the shorts can be milked with occasional squeezes like today.
I like all the curves and models but it is way too early to call the trajectory of Cologuard. Maybe by the end of Q2 we will have 3 meaningful data points. Keep in mind that this is a "concept stock" so futures always loom big.
Welcome to biotech , that is what emerging companies do-raise money year after year because dilution does not matter.
Nope but SRPT is too well known and they want to get an Ebola play now.
The idea was to have some small cap plays in HCV. It worked.
Now comes the hard part but be sure to hold GILD.
Yep a rally in PM. XBI is outperforming because value now is shifting to smaller cap companies.
I stopped shorting NFLX but if they can find that much creative talent to do even 5 big series or movies they are better than all the studios.
First time I have read this that binge watching and Netflix hogs cost nothing and do not slow internet speeds.
So Netflix sucks up 37% of broadband yet in their "war of words" with Verizon people side with Netflix.
Subscribers think $9, $10 $12 a month is nothing so there is no price sensitivity because their cable and broadband bill is so high. They keep it for the kids. The big question is can Netflix churn out 2-3 "House of Cards" quality movies per year?
I will hold my stock but until I see a revenue turnaround RGDX is not worth any more time.
I still have my stock but the turnaround for revenue is disappointing and it is a little late to get into sequencing which has been a growing trend for two years. At this point I'd suggest a merger with a private Company with better growth possibilities.
This is the most comprehensive analysis of a development stage biopharmaceutical Company I have seen by an independent analyst.The stock is 85% owned by major institutions and is being positioned for an early stage buyout as the current management team did with its former Company Cougar Biotechnology so the focus should be on valuation.
NASDAQ shows 46.35% Inst Holdings:
Excellent summary. RGDX has been on our Life Science focus list for some time and today the trading action is most encouraging.
Both PCYC and REGN are strong holds.
REGN could be profit taking but watch Q4 earnings for trajectory.
Dont cover MNKD.
Simply amazing! I still do not know how I never heard of this Company. I did a quick review of key screening parameters I use (management team, markets, investors etc) and they would have passed all (valuation and metrics aside). FMR owns 2.4M shares. There was good brokerage coverage so some analysts look very smart.
Not so fast the fund guys went on holiday so no buyers today down 3%. Perceptive cannot prop it up.
See the funds are reading our posts and rescued the stock! Plus they get help from ETFs and indices. NASDAQ is up 0.8% so piggyback effect.
good chart, see if the funds rescue the stock, otherwise $60 breaking MA 200 at $66-$62
Perceptive Advisors and Fidelity fuel the momentum of AEGR. They can prop it up for several months depending on Q4 sales.Peak of $100 will not be seen for a long time if ever.
Institutional holdings have soared the past Q so that accounts for the price movement. Perceptive and Fidelity are cutting back. A lot of piling on.
Yes" kyden" for sure.
I have traded QID,SRS and others and they are good only for short term trading. The only ETF short I own is TBT.
2014 Revenue estimates are $208M. If they can achieve revenues of $300M in 2015 then 7X sales is $2.1B without DCF and risk analysis. Market cap is now in $2.3B range at $79. Comparable is Viropharma (VPHM) sold to Shire for 7X sales. This also assumes orphan drug pricing will hold.
Is the future of biotechnology high priced orphan drugs for 1000-2000 patients?
The XBI has shifted its portfolio to more speculative momentum stocks like: CLDX, ISIS, SRPT which could account for its relative weakness and volatility lately.