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Rod Raynovich
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Rod Raynovich is an entrepreneur and executive with a focus on life science companies and medical technology trends.He has over 35 years executive experience including Abbott and JNJ and has been involved three successful start-ups. Before starting Raygent and other companies he was also a... More
My company:
Raygent Capital
My blog:
Raygent.com,Rayno Life Science
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  • Biotech Stocks Are Apparently Immune To Risks Of The Day: New Highs Again ..Update 2

    Update 1/28 After the Close Amgen Beats- But Stock Lags

    As of 11 am trading on 1/28 Speculative biotech stiocks are getting hit hard: AGIO JUNO KITE KPTI PBYI etc

    Amgen, Inc (NASDAQ:AMGN) fourth quarter earnings and sales beat estimates on strong sales of Enbrel, an arthritis drug.Revenue for Q4 was $5,33B a 6% increase over Q4 2013, The stock was up slightly after hours to $159.40. Sales growth was also driven by Kyprolis and Prolia. The P/S is still a modest 6.12 and the forward PE is 17.11.

    Next large cap earnings this week: Alexion (NASDAQ:ALXN), Biogen Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB), Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG), Vertex (NASDAQ:VRTX).

    As earnings from large cap and mid cap biopharmaceutical companies roll in we can compare stock market action to the speculative fever of the class of 2014 IPOs which are soaring. Note the paradox of biotech investing in a momentum bull market: if a Company has no sales and no clinical data it is more likely to move to the upside if the technology value is highly regarded.

    Amgen was an early Rayno Life Science pick in 2008 at a price of $47.

    Speculation Is Back in Emerging Biotechs

    However Earnings and Revenue Dependent Stocks Are Subdued

    On a day when earnings, Greece, the FED, housing, the strong dollar and a 3.4% durable goods decline spook the market , biotech stocks roll on to new highs. The overall market is down over 1% but well off the lows.

    Our top ETF pick (FBT) has hit new highs up 0.84% to $112.32. All other ETFs appear to be in step with the XBI leading up 1.1% to an all time high of $206.73. Healthcare is the leading sector today up 0.2%.

    Immuno-oncology stocks are running again led by ZIOP up 15% presumably on the MD Anderson licensing deal and BLUE, JUNO, and KITE up. NB: no clinical data is available on CAR-T platforms. Earnings dependent large cap biopharmaceuticals are more subdued barely eking out a gain with ALXN BIIB GILD and REGN in the RED. AMGN earnings are tonite. Mid caps were also mixed.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: The author is long GILD.

    Additional disclosure: Long Fidelity Biotech (MUTF:FBIOX) and short mid-cap biotechs as a hedge on a daily basis

    Jan 28 11:11 AM | Link | Comment!
  • JPMorgan Healthcare Conference Notes #4: Next Gen Sequencing (NGS)

    Seminar: Harnessing the Power of Next Gen Sequencing: The View from Industry 1/12/15

    A panel of leading entrepreneurial R&D executives presented their outlook and issues on the future of Next Gen Sequencing (NYSE:NGS), focusing on drug development and future clinical diagnostic applications. The panel was Randy Scott Ph.D. Founder and CEO of Invitae, George Yancopoulos M.D., Ph.D. CSO of Regeneron and John Stuelpnagel DVM, Co-Founder and Chairman of 10X Genomics. Adaptive Biotechnologies CEO Chad Robins was scheduled to participate but could not due to Adaptive's recent acquisition of Sequenta for a broader technology base to accelerate their efforts in cancer immunosequencing to measure the immune response to solid tumors.

    Background

    Invitae recently filed an S-1 and Prospectus for a Public Stock offering of up to $86M with J.P.Morgan Securities as the sole book-running manager with Cowen and Company and Leerink Partners as co-managers. Invitae's Mission is to bring comprehensive genetic information into mainstream medical practice with a focus on hereditary cancers.They perform full-gene sequencing and deletion/duplication analysis in their CLIA Lab based in San Francisco, CA.

    NGS is evolving to the clinical stage which is much more complex due to the need for high definition sequencing, computing power, expense and time of long read length sequencing, and regulatory issues such as Lab Developed Tests (LDTs). The market is currently dominated by Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) with Life Tech Technologies, now Thermo Fisher (NYSE:TMO), in the number two position. Pacific Biosciences of California (NASDAQ:PACB) holds a growing niche position in microbiology and agriculture with revenues in the $60M range. At least 3 major private NGS players are being funded to advance the field.

    Sequencing technologies and the potential clinical applications are beyond the scope of these developments so to follow the NGS field more closely including product developments I would recommend following news on genomeweb.

    Panel of Industry Leaders

    Here are some of the key issues and takeaways from the panel:

    • Genetics will increasingly be the driver of drug development and NGS is important to the process with more rational design of therapeutics.
    • There are already more than 4000 diseases and disorders tied to genes. See www.genetests.org.
    • Regeneron and Geisinger Health System announced a Major Human Genetics Research Collaboration focused on studying the genetic determinants of disease. Direct linkage of gene to disease is actually very rare. This collaboration will help link the phenotype (symptoms and disease) to the genotype to determine long term health outcomes. Phenotype linkage will be the real breakthrough.
    • "Long read" sequences of DNA are needed to advance certain applications of NGS. 10X Genomics has microfluidics, bioinformatics and chemistry technology which purports to complement and "upgrade short read " sequencers and is already working non-invasive pre-natal tests for chromosomal abnormalities.
    • Prenatal tests are already available from Sequenom Laboratories, such as the Trisomy test for chromosomal abnormalities.
    • Genomic Health (NASDAQ:GHDX) was mentioned as a potential NGS advance with their "liquid biopsy" for detecting mutational changes at the somatic level e.g, tumor DNA in urine and blood.
    • Some commoditization of NGS testing will occur because of recent Supreme Court ruling that human genes (DNA) in its natural form cannot be patented. However applications and methods will have IP.
    • Many NGS tests will be commercialized over the long term with prices as low as $100 but accuracy and information content will be critical.
    • The market will develop rapidly over the next 2-3 years toward medical applications driven by consumer demand and lower costs per genetic test. Payors are behind the curve. Genetic testing and NGS should be settled in the marketplace not through the FDA process because regulation could stifle innovation. The FDA will lag NGS technology developments.

    We have written about several genomics companies in previous posts and all are included in the Rayno Diagnostics and Tools Portfolio: Foundation Medicine, Inc.(NASDAQ:FMI), Genomic Health Inc. (GHDX), Illumina,Inc. (ILMN), Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB), and Sequenom (NASDAQ:SQNM).

    Updates this week.

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Long Fidelity Select Biotecch Fund (MUTF:FBIOX)

    Jan 20 4:36 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Rayno Dx And Tools 2014 Performance YTD: ABAX EXAS ILMN PACB SQNM

    Many Big Winners Are Among Rayno Diagnostics and Tools Stocks in 2014

    Abaxis (NASDAQ:ABAX) up 46% A major "Point of Care" (POC) Dx Player in veterinary and human markets.

    Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) up 135% An emerging Dx player with non-invasive, DNA based test for colon cancer.

    Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) up 68% Leading provider of DNA sequencing tools with new paradigm for diagnostics.

    Pacific Biosciences (NASDAQ:PACB) up 42.6% Emerging DNA sequencing player.

    Sequenom (NASDAQ:SQNM) up 53.4% Genetic analysis (SNPs) for prenatal testing and other diseases. Spun off bioscience division.

    Despite growth of only ~2% in the ~$55B clinical diagnostic market Worldwide in 2013 , new technologies such as sequencing and market niches like POC (Point of Care) and immunoassays provide revenue growth. LDTs (Lab Developed Tests) are also a growth area but the FDA will soon be issuing guidelines for these tests which have limited clinical diagnostic use.The veterinary market segment is also a growth area.

    We will review all of our portfolio picks after the 2014 Financial Results. We made two new Dx picks in H2 2014: Foundation Medicine (FMI) at $25 and Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB) at $5.75.

    Sign up now to receive 2015 updates on this important sector with a lot of new coming in early 2015.

    Here is the complete Rayno Portfolio Summary with April and November Updates:

    Diagnostics and Tools Stocks Sold-Off in Q1 But Long Term Outlook Attractive | Raygent.com

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Long Fidelity Select Biotech FBIOX

    Tags: ILMN, FMI, PACB
    Dec 30 10:33 AM | Link | Comment!
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