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Rod Raynovich
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Rod Raynovich is an entrepreneur and executive with a focus on life science companies and medical technology trends.He has over 35 years executive experience including Abbott and JNJ and has been involved three successful start-ups. Before starting Raygent and other companies he was also a... More
My company:
Raygent Capital
My blog:
Raygent.com,Rayno Life Science
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  • Rayno Life Science Small Cap Picks: CLDX, PACB, FMI...Update-1

    Update November 18 : NASDAQ 4702 up 0.67%, IBB at 295.25up 2.22%

    Recent Small Cap picks:

    CLDX 17.72 off 2.9% with profit taking.Very choppy trade.

    FCSC 2.67 flat little action, despite Press Release on amputee treatment.

    Foundation Medicine (NASDAQ:FMI) at $25.86 up 2.67%. DNA tests for genetic profiling of potential cancer treatments.

    KPTI $40.71 flat . Phase 2 with SINE (Selective Inhibitor of Nuclear Export).

    Pacific Biosciences (NASDAQ:PACB) $6.97 flat on high volume. SMRT technology for DNA sequencing.

    Rayno Life Science Portfolios-Many stocks are up 2% +

    ALKS, ALXN, GHDX, GILD, ILMN, REGN, SGEN. Large caps regain strength.

    Biotechs stalled near new highs as S&P 500 hits new all time high at 2051.80.

    ----------------

    Rayno Life Science Small Cap Picks-Recent Updates

    On August 11 we suggested that traders and investors look at several speculative biotech stocks that could rally in Q4 2014. Small cap biotechs track two ETFs : IWM the Russell 2000 Index and the XBI, a biotech ETF weighted toward smaller caps. We reviewed these stocks again in later posts and on Friday November 14. These stocks and their initial price points were:

    Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CLDX) -$15

    Celldex is up 33% today to $18.94 on results from their brain tumor immunotherapy trial.The Phase 2 ReACT study showed statistically significant survival benefit in patients with glioblastoma multiforme. The Celldex drug halted cancer progression in 9 out of 33 patients.

    Fibrocell Bioscience (NASDAQ:FCSC) -$2.75

    The stock has struggled as it approaches $3 but we still think it is a good trade even a long term play with its autologous fibroblast technology for treating rare and serious skin disorders.

    Karyopharm Therapeutics (NASDAQ:KPTI)-$37.31

    KPTI is volatile but holding above $40 with a broad trading range below and above. The Company is focused in nuclear transport technology with a pipeline of two lead products.The stock has 4 BUY ratings.

    Pacific Biosciences (PACB) -$5.75

    PACB is near all time highs reached in January and up 33% YTD, 35% over past 3 months.Roche ADR (OTCQX:RHHBY) announced a milestone payment in October. Revenues were also up in Q3 to $20.6M. The sequencing player is one of the last "value plays" considerably behind leader Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN). Both RHHBY and ILMN are also on our focus list.

    On Friday we added Foundation Medicine (FMI) to our small cap focus list at a price of $25.

    Disclosure: The author is long FCSC.

    Additional disclosure: Long FBIOX and other biotech stocks.

    Tags: FMI
    Nov 18 6:22 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Rayno Life Science: Biotech Stocks Hit A Wall At New Highs Up 40% YTD

    Red Tape Today Means Caution-Take Some Off

    XBI at $167.83 Off 2%

    Traders, investors, executives even pension funds are thrilled with biotech investing as the stock group rolls on to new highs this month. What may not be appreciated is the 20% move off the October 16 bottom when gloom and doom reached its nadir due to macro events such as Ebola, Ukraine and the global economy. And keep in mind volatility will be back just as it did in March and October. But biotech has gone mainstream and the least scientifically trained investor can trade these stocks with a lot of help from the internet and technical anlysis. I will summarize some key posts made this year with regard to trading and investing strategies but be sure to review the long term picks in our portfolio.Keep in mind that biotech speculation and momentum is pervasive right now and the volatility of small cap stocks is very high. Our basic portfolio of Rayno Life Science stocks were picked with a proprietary model including fundamentals and technicals.

    With the sector at an all time high way beyond the Q1 2014 bubble tops be cautious before adding new positions.

    • Basic Investing Approach: Buy an ETF and a Life Science Fund

    Our top recommendation is the ETF First Trust NYSE Arca Biotech ETF (FBT) currently up 41% YTD. But the IBB and XBI are also up about 30% YTD so outperformance can be achieved with almost any liquid ETF. The Fidelity Select Biotech Fund (MUTF:FBIOX) is also up about 29% YTD so it is a good complement to an ETF if you prefer an actively managed fund. We have done numerous comparisons of these ETFs over the years and at times the leaders change. Another conservative approach is to life science investing is to buy a healthcare ETF such as XLV, the NYSE Arca SPDR which is up 21% YTD and 126% over five years. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) as well as Medicare have been factors in both healthcare and biotech sector strength because of more patients.

    • Core Positions Should Be Large Cap Biopharmaceuticals

    We have developed the Rayno Large Cap portfolio over the years which provide returns comparable to most funds but one should buy all six of these stocks plus FBT to minimize risk. Moreover 3 large cap biotech stocks are among the top performers YTD: Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN). Our other three large caps picks are: Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALXN), Biogen Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB) and Roche ADR (OTCQX:RHHBY). We will be rebalancing this group from time to time and today there is considerable weakness in BIIBand GILD; the FBT is down 2.39%.

    • Use Mid Caps To Balance An Aggressive Portfolio

    Now the stock picking becomes more difficult because we need more knowledge of the technology, product pipeline and clinical expectations. We have picked five mid-caps over the past 12 months as "motifs" if you will, that are emerging as growth stocks. They are Alkermes Plc (NASDAQ:ALKS), Cubist Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:CBST), Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ:PCYC), Seattle Genetics ,Inc. (NASDAQ:SGEN) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX), Vertex is the leader up 51% YTD while Seattle Genetics SGEN) is the laggard down 7.5% YTD. These companies have revenue, products and pipelines.

    There is a lot of money chasing biotech stocks with a momentum strategy. IPOs and investment banking activity are near its peak. As you can see from the above metrics you can be a profitable player by investing in one ETF. Nonetheless speculation is widespread and many mid and small cap stocks are up 50 to 100% YTD. What becomes difficult with traders in a "bubbly" market like this is holding on to multiple positions with the stocks soaring, as well as controlling losses. If you are not trading every day (not to be confused with "day trading") watching your positions, you can lose 10-20% easily in one stock in one week. And always have at least 10% cash on hand for new trades. Keep in mind we do not offer "sell recommendations" rather we delete stocks from our portfolios. Today mid-caps are in a vicious sell-off with PCYC and SGEN down over 3% on low volume.

    • Small Cap Investing-Are You a Trader or an Investor

    Where to go from here? In August we have started developing a small cap speculative portfolio for trading but with a criteria that offers big potential over the longer term. First look at small caps in our portfolio that have done well over the years: Achillion (NASDAQ:ACHN), Albany Molecular (NASDAQ:AMRI), and Cardiovascular Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSII) as well as four companies that were acquired with nice profits. Be sure to follow the IWM Russell 2000 ETF, a good indicator of biotech small cap strength.

    Here are several small cap stocks that we picked for trading or momentum investing: Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CLDX), Fibrocell Science (NASDAQ:FCSC), GlycoMimetics(NASDAQ:GLYC), Karyopharm Therapeutics (NASDAQ:KPTI) and Pacific Biosciences (NASDAQ:PACB). All of these stocks were good trades. We will post an update by early December. Today add Foundation Medicine Inc. (FMI) now at $25 to this list.

    Summary

    1. Core position for long term investors is FBT and Rayno Large Cap Biopharma. The secular bull market in biotech is intact.
    2. Entry level for new buys is hard to call because the sector is up 40% YTD.
    3. Traders must be daily participants and do their research. "Chasing the tape" is a difficult job.
    4. Seasonality is favorable in Q4 early January time frame but market is a bit frothy right now.
    5. Always follow the technicals.

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Long Fidelity Select Biotech Fund (FBIOX)

    Tags: BIIB, GILD, FBT
    Nov 14 12:43 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Rayno Life Science Stocks: Up 30%+ YTD After A Volatile October

    Investors Whipsawed By V-Shaped Rally

    NASDAQ at New Highs 4631

    DOW at New Highs 17,390

    Investors got what was forecasted-a volatile October that moved from fear to greed in two weeks! The market was buffeted by the Ebola scare, macro analysts decrying easy money from the FED and a potential global economic slowdown. But fears were tempered by good corporate earnings, low energy prices for consumers and a GDP growth rate of 3.5%. And the dreaded end of QE failed to spook investors. Biotechnology stocks continued to lead the way with strong product sales and earnings growth among the mid and large caps. The Russell 2000 Small Cap stock index (NYSEARCA:IWM) also perked up with an 8% move in October to $116.56, off a mid October bottom near $104.

    Here is Rayno Life Science stocks portfolio performance YTD through October 31 with FBT at $99.5 up 43% YTD and IBB at $296 up 30% YTD.

    Rayno Large Cap Biopharmaceuticals-Core Position-7 Stocks Including One ETF (NYSEARCA:FBT)... Up 34.3% YTD

    Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALXN), Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ:BIIB), First Trust NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index Fund (FBT), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:REGN) and Roche Holding Ltd. ADR (OTCQX:RHHBY). ALXN is up 44% YTD.

    Rayno Mid Cap Biopharmaceuticals -5 Stocks...Up 13.2% YTD

    Alkermes Plc (NASDAQ:ALKS), Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBST), Pharmacyclics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PCYC), Seattle Genetic, Inc. (NASDAQ:SGEN) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRTX). a volatile group with VRTX up 51.6% YTD.

    Rayno Diagnostics and Tools.. See Link and previous posts.

    Top Five Winners YTD: Abaxis, Inc. (ABAX, Exact Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXAS), Genomic Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:GHDX), Hologic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOLX) and Illumina, Inc. (ILMN. Several others are in the green.

    Top Five Losers YTD: Nanosphere, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSPH), NanoString Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSTG), Neogen Corp. (NASDAQ:NEOG), Response Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGDX) and Trinity Biotech plc (NASDAQ:TRIB), Most of these stocks offered upside trading opportunities.

    Summary

    1. Own a portfolio of life science stocks OR an ETF such as FBT, OR a fund such as Fidelity Select Biotechnology Fund (MUTF:FBIOX).
    2. A portfolio should be weighted toward large caps.
    3. A biotech sector rally is expected to continue through January 2015 interrupted by the usual "macro minefields".
    4. Watch technicals and macro game changing news.
    5. Although it is difficult to pick new stocks after this rally, small caps are regaining momentum and offer good trading opportunities.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: FBT
    Nov 02 7:42 PM | Link | Comment!
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