Seeking Alpha

Rod Raynovich's  Instablog

Rod Raynovich
Send Message
Rod Raynovich is an entrepreneur and executive with a focus on life science companies and medical technology trends.He has over 30 years executive experience including Abbott and JNJ and has been involved three successful start-ups. He has a B.S. from Penn State University and an MBA from... More
My company:
Raygent Capital
My blog:
View Rod Raynovich's Instablogs on:
  • Tradable Bottom In With Biotech But Don't Go Crazy

    Large Caps Are Recovering But Follow Q1 Earnings Closely

    Fidelity Select Biotech FBIOX( $176 ) must hold $172 for new buys.

    Healthcare sector XLV ($56.94) lagging industrials and energy.

    April 15 Low Must Hold IBB ($207.70)

    • Our top picks that are off 5 day bottom and higher: ABBV ALKS ALXN, BIIB, GILD.
    • Even laggard Celgene (CELG) down 16% YTD is catching bids.
    • MOMO and Smaller Caps-Dip In For Day Trades Only -XBI ($125.44) low at $115.40

    Valuation Models From October 9, 2013 Revisited

    • Onyx buy-out by Amgen (AMGN) at $10B still high-water mark so M&A action should be mid-caps.
    • Stocks higher on list: ALXN, INCY, PBYI.
    • Stocks lower on list: ARIA, BMRN, CLVS, PCYC, REGN, SGEN.

    Small and Mid-Cap trading action is volatile with good volume.

    Disclosure: I am long ABBV, GILD.

    Additional disclosure: I am long FBIOX and short mid-cap biotech stocks on a daily basis,

    Tags: GILD, IBB
    Apr 17 1:08 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Confirm The Trading Bottom In Biotech With ETFs..Update At Close

    Update at Close 4/15….. Late Day Reversal To Green

    The NASDAQ Composite began a rally at 1P EDT and never stopped , moving up 62 points to close at 4034. Biotech ETFs followed step by step to end up in the green after a severe daily decline. The IBB ($217.6) ended up 1% after hitting allow near $207.68 at 1 Pm EDT.

    The XBI hit a low of $115 before rallying at 1P EDT to a $122.7 close . $115 is the Aug, Oct and Nov 2013 triple bottom.

    There should be a follow-up rally tomorrow in NASDAQ and large cap biotech stocks.


    Biotech Selling Is Relentless- But Off Daily Bottom

    NASDAQ Down 22.82 or 0.57% %, 4.25% YTD at 2:13P EDT; DOW and S&P flat but green

    See chart below on major biotech ETFs. FBT flat YTD, PBE up 2% YTD, IBB down 6% YTD

    and XBI down 8.17% YTD and now at October lows , a triple bottom near $115. The XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF has a $1.27B market cap was originally characterized as "equal weighted" and is small cap growth. There is frequent rebalancing of holdings for example with GERN, KERX, EXAS,ITMN and ACOR now among the top ten. At one time the XBI held many of the highly speculative and MOMO stocks like ARIA, GEVA, ICPT, INCY, NVAX, ONVO, SGMO, SRPTetc. We suspect that the model of XBI ($119) is MACD or MO based and whatever the case should be an indicator of small cap biotech bottom.The chart is currently in bear territory below the 200 day moving average. The 2014 high was 170 in late February.

    We recommendedXBI as a short to hedge a life science portfolio in February but it is too late to short now. We recommended a cash position in a life science portfolio at 30%.

    Other ETFs like FBT and IBB are more weighted to large caps.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long GILD.

    Additional disclosure: I am long FBIOX Fidelity Select Biotech and short mid and small caps on a daily basis.

    Tags: IBB, XBI
    Apr 15 2:31 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Risk Reversal: Bargain Hunting And FOMC Catalyst Perks Up Biotech Stocks

    Broad Biotech Rally Starts Early- Builds Head of Steam-IBB Up 4.1%

    Intermediate Support Looks Good- Bull Market Test

    With the sector down 15-20 % off 2014 highs and many life science stocks barely up YTD , investors decided to jump back into what was the hottest game in town. The healthcare sector overall was up 2%, leading the market although social media and technology were also strong. Many well known large cap names soared: Alexion (ALXN), Alkermes (ALKS), Biogen Idec (BIIB), Celegene (CELG), Pharmacyclics (PCYC) , and Regeneron (REGN).

    Investment Summary

    • Review Rayno Biopharmaceutical picks . All are holds.
    • Large Caps should lead as they did today.
    • Q1 Earnings will provide better clarity on large cap growth.
    • Support for sector reset is now early January levels.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long CLVS, GILD.

    Additional disclosure: I have covered many shorts as hedges. I am long Fidelity Select Biotech Fund.

    Tags: BIIB, REGN, XBI
    Apr 09 6:01 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.