Seeking Alpha

Rod Raynovich's  Instablog

Rod Raynovich
Send Message
Rod Raynovich is an entrepreneur and executive with a focus on life science companies and medical technology trends.He has over 35 years executive experience including Abbott and JNJ and has been involved three successful start-ups. Before starting Raygent and other companies he was also a... More
My company:
Raygent Capital
My blog:
Raygent.com,Rayno Life Science
View Rod Raynovich's Instablogs on:
  • Rayno Portfolio Picks Up On Q1 Results: AMGN, ILMN

    Rayno Biopharmaceutical Stocks: Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) Beats

    Amgen (AMGN) stock was up 1.5 % today and over 2% after hours to $172. Total Q1 revenues were up 11% to $5B compared to prior quarter in 2014 and EPS increased by 33% to $2.48. Free cash flow was $1.2B. Earnings guidance were raised but biosimilars are looming in 2016.Amgen (AMGN) was recommended on 2/2/09 at a price of $55. The stock is up 46% over one year.

    The Rayno Large Cap Biopharma Portfolio is up 16% YTD and includes AMGN, ALXN,BIIB, GILD, REGN and RHHBY.

    Rayno Tools and Diagnostic Stocks: Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN) Beats

    Illumina (ILMN) stock was up 3% today and over 4% after hours to $206. Total Q1 revenues were $529M or $0.92 per diluted share up 28% compared to prior quarter in 2014 and GAAP net income was $137M compared to $60M in 2014 Q1. Fee cash flow was $30M for Q1. Illumina (ILMN) was recommended on 2/2/09 at a price of $29 and the stock is up 47% over one year.

    We will review our Diagnostics and Tools portfolio after all Q1 earnings are in. Stocks in the Rayno universe to watch are ABAX HOLX, QGEN and TMO.

    Healthcare and biotech stocks came back today although speculative stocks were mixed. The IBB was up 1.83%. Rayno Mid Caps were strong lead by Vertex (NASDAQ:VRTX) on usual M&A talk. Somebody is expecting big things from Incyte (NASDAQ:INCY) up today over 3% and up 49% YTD!

    Risk remains on.

    Tags: AMGN, ILMN
    Apr 22 9:54 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Biotech Bull Market: Trends To Watch In 2015... #3

    Biotech Sector Moves Up In Tiny Steps

    Risk Remains On

    AACR Next Week Will Move Cancer Stocks

    Biotech indices and ETFs are trying to hit new highs but momentum is easing and trading is choppy. Nonetheless we are moving up from the brief correction near channel lows at the end of Q1. Sentiment remains strong.

    Here is a review of the Five Trends we outlined on February 13, 2015.

    1. Momentum of "immuno-oncology" stocks

    Most of the stocks we track are approaching new highs and the soaring Aduro Biotech (Pending:ADRO) IPO up 38% in 2 days confirmed this strength. On the other hand the recent Cellectis SA (Pending:CLLS) is off 18.5% since going public. Aduro Biotech is a clinical stage cancer immunotherapy Company with two technology platforms to stimulate T-cell mediated immunity for pancreatic cancer and glioblastoma. Cellectis S.A. has a CAR-T platform for treatment of leukemia and solid tumors.We reviewed the CAR-T companies from a BIO Investor Forum last October. Some of the hot "immuno-oncology" companies to watch are : AGIO, BLUE, CLDX, CLVS, JUNO, KITE, NLNK, ZIOP. All are clinical stage,with multi$B market caps. These stocks are a good barometer of market strength.

    2. Technicals on Major ETFs: FBT,IBB,XBI.

    The XBI is the leader up 26.2% YTD handily beating the other two up about 19% YTD. Lows were hit near the end of March after highs in mid-March. Look for a topping pattern in all three trying to reach all time highs. The largest biotech fund Fidelity Select Biotech Fund (MUTF:FBIOX) is tracking the IBB up about 21% YTD. Volume is on the low side compared to March.

    (click to enlarge)

    3. Large Cap Biotech and Q1 Earnings

    Many of the large cap pharma stocks will report this month and will guide earnings for the year. The Rayno Large Cap Portfolio (ALXN,AMGN,BIIB,GILD,REGN,RHHBY), is up 11% YTD but trails Rayno Mid and Small Caps as well as major ETFs. Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) is up 9.6% YTD compared to Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) up only 4.2% YTD. Undoubtedly there will be a shift in the large cap performance after Q1 financial reporting.

    4. IPO Market Continues Strong in April

    Renaissance Capital shows a good flow in April with five healthcare offerings mostly doing well. 2015 is slower than the record year 2014 however with 34 IPOs raising $5.4B the least active since Q1 2013. Tickers to watch: KMPH, ADRO, CDTX, XBIT,CBYL.

    5. Healthcare Sector (NYSEARCA:XLV) Strength

    Over the past two weeks there has been a slight shift to other sectors notably energy and materials. Healthcare stocks have been resilient during MACRO events and market sell -offs. TheXLV is up 8.25% YTD compared to the S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY) up only 2.6% YTD. The QQQ is up 4.45% YTD. Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) has been the best performer over one month up 10%.

    (click to enlarge)

    Summary

    All five of our trend indicators support the bull market in biotech. Speculation in clinical stage companies shows institutions have reserve funds and clientele for aggressive trading. Large caps are lagging patiently waiting for Q1 earnings. Drivers are the same as past five years: M&A, more patients, new products, positive clinical data and breakthroughs in molecular medicine.

    Tags: XBI, XLV
    Apr 17 10:39 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Ignyta (RXDX) : A New Small Cap Pick -Precision Medicine For Oncology
    • The recent TEVA Deal expands their oncology portfolio while integrating companion diagnostics.
    • An emerging small cap biopharmaceutical play; data will be presented on their entrectinib lead compound at ASCO.
    • A strong management team with a unique strategy in oncology.

    Teva Deal Expands Portfolio and Diagnostic Capabilities

    A New Pick: Adding RXDX to the Rayno Small Cap Portfolio

    Price $10.59 Market Cap $207.4M

    Ignyta, Inc.(OTC:RXDX) is an emerging biopharmaceutical Company targeting new oncology drugs that inhibit Tyrosine kinase receptors (NYSE:TRK) with integrated biomarker-based companion diagnostics for each product candidate. The Company has two clinical stage productsin Phase 1: RXDX-106 its lead product entrectinib, an oral Trk, ROS1, ALK small molecule inhibitor targeting solid tumor indications; and RXDX-105, a BRAF, EGFR and RET inhibitor. In February 2015the Company announced that the FDA granted the company orphan drug designation for entrectinib for treatment of blastoma and for treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer as well as a rare pediatric disease. The global PhaseI/IIa clinical trial called STARTRK-1 began in July 2014 in adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic cancer confirmed to be positive for relevant molecular alterations. Interim positive results were presented in September 2014.

    RXDX-103 was licensed from Nerviano Medical Sciences and is an inhibitor of the cell cycle division 7-related (Cdc7) protein kinase which interferes with the DNA replication process. This program is currently in development for potential treatment of multiple cancers.

    RXDX-105 and three additional pre-clinical pipeline products were recently acquired from Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NYSE:TEVA). TheTeva transaction included the four oncology R&D assets and a CLIA laboratory with proprietary multiplexed diagnostic assays was announced on March 17 included a $42M equity investment by Teva and others which implies some validation of product potential. There are no milestones due Teva for this transaction but Ignyta will assume existing sublicense obligations including royalties.

    The Company believes these compounds target important oncogenic driver mutations which account for up to 80% of known driver mutations across multiple solid tumor indications for example lung cancer (NSCLC) and a significant portion for colorectal cancer. A Master Protocol study design expected in 2H'15 with the upcomingSTARTRK-2 clinical trial will screen NSCLC patients for a range of histologies.

    Ignyta is pairing their oncology drugs with their Trailblaze (NYSE:R) suite of proprietary diagnostic tests beginning with ROS1 and ALK biomarker tests and NTRK1 coming soon. The companion diagnostic capability should assist clinical development.

    Updates on entrectinib are expected at ASCO including data from three European cohorts and one US cohort.

    Q4 2014 Financial Review

    The Company has cash and cash equivalents of about $51.8M with total stockholder equity of $55.9 M. Losses for 2015 are expected in the (2.69) per share range. Debt from Silicon Valley Bankcorp. is $10M maturing in December 2017.

    Risks:Like all early stage biotech companies lacking revenue the clinical data can disappoint and more financing will be required through the development stages.

    Disclosure: Long RXDX

    Tags: RXDX, oncology
    Apr 07 5:38 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.