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Rod Raynovich
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Rod Raynovich is an entrepreneur and executive with a focus on life science companies and medical technology trends.He has over 35 years executive experience including Abbott and JNJ and has been involved three successful start-ups. Before starting Raygent and other companies he was also a... More
My company:
Raygent Capital
My blog:
Raygent.com,Rayno Life Science
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  • No Summer Doldrums In Biotech Today ... PBYI

    Biotech and NASDAQ Rally Amidst Global Conflicts

    Puma Biotechnology Inc. (NYSE:PBYI) Soars 180% In After Market on Breast Cancer study Results

    Puma announced top line results from the Phase III clinical trial of PB 272 (neratinib) for the extended adjuvant treatment of early stage HER2 positive breast cancer on patients who had undergone surgery. Regulatory approval will be filed in H1 2015. Neratinib will face competition from Roche's (OTCQX:RHHBY) Herceptin already on the market.

    The Company also announced an amendment to their licensing agreement with Pfizer requiring Puma to pay the ongoing costs of furter clinical trials which will be approxiamtely $30M. Upon commercialization of neratinib, Puma will pay a fixed lower royalty rate in the low to mid-teens.

    We have no coverage of Puma but some ETFs/ Funds should get a small boost tomorrow. Fidelity is holding over 2M PBYI shares in various funds but any other funds have reduced their positions after ASCO and other data. XBI is also up 3.61% in today's after market.

    Anyone who thought they understood the dynamics of biotech trading will be totally confused by this huge move, especially those who short individual stocks. PBYI had a small short position of 6%. We have no positions in PBYI and no recommendation.

    Yellen Benchmark of 7/15

    Last wednesday we wrote about the sell-off on biotechnology shares after the Yellen comment on "small cap valuations being stretched". In other market commentary in early July and after the bubble burst on March 31, 2014 we urged investors to overweight large cap biopharma stocks and avoid MoMo speculative stocks without revenue. Our large cap portfolio is up 10% YTD with our favorite ETF FBT ($81.40) up 17.66% YTD. Since the Yellen comment five days ago the sector is flat to down 2% but should improve a bit tomorrow.

    A few analysts stood their ground on Yellen's comments last week. Mark Schoenebaum of ISI Group, wrote a letter to Yellen armed with charts and PE data showing the current ratio roughly in line with Russell- 1000 stocks. However the priciest small caps with no revenues nor earnings would not have been included in this group. Of course nothing compares to the 1999 tech and biotech bubble.

    Rayno Life Science Movers:

    Winners

    Alexion (NASDAQ:ALXN) up 2.8%, Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) up 1.75%, Albany Molecular (NASDAQ:AMRI) up 2.62%, Genomic Health (NASDAQ:GHDX) up 1.51%, Quidel (NASDAQ:QDEL) up 4.65%, Vertex (NASDAQ:VRTX)up 1.48%.

    Losers

    Nanostring (NASDAQ:NSTG) down 3.42%, Neogen (NASDAQ:NEOG) down 4.65%.

    Our index of over 50 small and mid-cap biopharmaceutical stocks was mixed but green overall.

    We urged investors to raise cash levels to 15-20% depending on risk tolerance and wait out a choppy summer market. Overweight large caps among Rayno Portfolio picks. Q2 earnings for larger caps are on their way this week and next week: ALXN, AMGN, BBII, GILD, RHHBY etc.

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Long Fidelity Select Biotech Fund FBIOX

    Tags: PBYI
    Jul 23 8:51 AM | Link | Comment!
  • FED Comments Focus On "Bubble" Stocks In Social Media And Biotech

    NASDAQ and Biotech Sell-Off on Yellen's Monetary Report

    Some found comments by the FED unusual in that equity valuations are not under their covenants but the FED may be trying to draw attention to risk in the broader sense because the corporate bond market can be affected by speculation in small cap stocks.

    Profit taking continued in many MoMo small cap biotech stocks after a FED written comment suggested that "equity valuations of smaller firms as well as social media and biotech firms may be stretched...." Over the past week we urged some profit taking in biotech stocks on our focus list as many are up over 50% YTD. Moreover technicals among smaller cap biopharmaceutical firms have weakened as the sector just as the sector overall had recovered from April lows rocketing to within 10% of 2014 highs.

    On February 25, 2014 at sector highs we cautioned on the biotech bull market reaching a bubble phase.

    Biotech stocks are broadly down with ETFs down about 2% but the more speculative and small cap weightedXBIdown 3%. The sell-off was not limited to small caps as many well known "mid-caps" were 3% movers on the downside are : Cubist (NASDAQ:CBST), Incyte (NASDAQ:INCY), Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN), Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ:PCYC) and Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN).

    Update after the close.

    Tags: XBI
    Jul 15 1:37 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Risk Off: Take Profits In Biotech Stocks

    Bad Tape Yesterday (7/7) Calls For Raising Cash

    NASDAQ at 4451 up 6.58% YTD

    • Major ETFs and Fidelity (FBIOX) take a ~3% hit
    • All major market sectors weak with healthcare down 1%
    • Unusual weakness in many Rayno Life Science stocks
    • Small caps weak with IWM down 1.69%, up 2% YTD
    • Many former high fliers continued weak: CLDX, ICPT,INCY, NLNK, SGMO, SRPT

    The market failed in a run to new highs as it approached within 10% of February peaks. Some of our focus stocks bucked the trend like Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ:PCYC) up 2.79 % bouncing off the 2014 support level near $90. The Company was granted priority review for the Imbruvica sNDA last month. Qiagen (NASDAQ:QGEN) and Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) were also stable. Large cap biopharmaceutical stocks were down as much as 2%. Summer trading is likely to be choppy so going into the fourth quarter with 10-20% cash is a good idea. Moreover Q2 financial results will give us visibility for large cap stocks.

    Some candidates for profit taking within the Rayno Life Science Portfolios with YTD performance: Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) up 42%, Illumina ILMN up 61%, Regeneron (REGN) up 13.2%, Sequenom (NASDAQ:SQNM) up 64% and Vertex (NASDAQ:VRTX) up 30.3%.

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Long Fidelity Select Biotech Fund (FBIOX)

    Tags: XBI, FBT
    Jul 08 9:23 AM | Link | Comment!
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