Roger C. Wren

Why Opposition to Deficit Spending Is Growing Rapidly

As Rahm said, never let a crisis go to waste. If the original goal of the stimulus package was to benefit special interests who support the Democratic party it is easy to see why there has been little benefit for the population at large. Helping the population at large was never a goal of the stimulus.

Banks Run Out of Options in General Growth Properties

Such warrants would indeed dilute the present shareholders. The devil , of course, is in the details. Two dollar warrants would dilute and hurt shareholders. 15 dollar warrants would offer possible value to debt holders in addition to repayment of the debt but would not worry present shareholders to any great degree.

'Bankruptcy?' Ouch!!! We Touched a Sore Spot

"In my opinion the likelihood of a bankruptcy filing, as rated by Audit Integrity’s model, seems very conservative."


This is not clear to me. Do you think they are going bankrupt or not?

General Growth Properties Bankruptcy: Not the End of Malls

John, I don't know where they were two years ago but the past few months General Growth's occupancy has been in the low 90's and holding pretty steady. Ben Dover is not the General Growth bankruptcy judge. The judge's name is Grooper, which I may have just miss-spelled.

I plead guilty to owning General Growth stock and am very glad I do.

General Growth Properties Bankruptcy: Not the End of Malls

"And the disclosure of interest? "


In the heat of the moment when responding to an attack Todd forgot it Dave. In previous posts he has disclosed that he owns General Growth stock.

Why Banking Is Insolvent

125 million single family dwellings? In addition to condos and apartments? For a population of about 320 million?

Hard to believe.

Is It Possible to Tame the Deficit? Yes

As long as Mr. Obama is president there will be no desire at the top of the American government to reduce the deficit. I am old and will be gone soon so it does not matter a lot to me. Those under 40 now will face a terrible situation twenty or thirty years from now. Mr. Obama's name will be cursed worse then than Mr. Hoover's was when I was young.

Progress(?) on the California Budget

About 35 or 40 years ago when I was in the Navy the federal government did that with military pay during a financial crisis. The military before then got paid on the 15th and 30th of every month. At the time the fiscal year ended on 30 June. That year the 30 June paycheck was issued on 1 July, meaning in the ending fiscal year only 23 bi-monthly paychecks were issued for the military. Ever since the military pays on the first and the 15th.

But the budget deficit in the target year did not look as bad as it really was.

Update on General Growth Bankruptcy

I had trouble at first following your math but eventually ended up at the same place so all is well. Cash flow of three dollars a share on the current stock is about a billion dollars a year. Triple the shares outstanding to a billion and you have cash flow of a dollar a share on the diluted shares. Hope the market gives the company a price of eight times cash flow and you get a stock price of eight dollars a share. It may not turn out that well but it is not unreasonable to hope for such a result.

If you look at asset value in that scenario you get about 15 dollars a share. Ackman figures current asset value of 29 billion. Cut the debt in about half and leave asset value at 29 billion and asset value net of debt will be about 15 billion or 15 dollars a share.

If the company came out of BK at 8 dollars a share and net assets of 15 dollars a share Mr. Ackman would probably start looking at a leveraged buyout.

Jim Rogers Shares His Thoughts on the Market

I think his position is that the "mess" is going to be with us a long time and probably get worse. He feels commodities are the best place to be for capital preservation during the "mess", not necessarily that they will lead us out.

As an Investment, Gold's Just a Brick

I have lived in Thailand for three years. There are dozens of gold shops in every city of any size. Every Thai lady wants gold chains and ornaments. They know that there is no record anywhere that they have the gold and that anytime they have a serious need for money they can take a chain to a gold shop and walk out in ten minutes with cash. Try to talk one of them into one of the alternatives in the above article? Waste of time and breath.

10 Year Treasury Auction - Was I Right or Wrong?

I am not much of a mathmatician but I do believe that a move from 15.00 to 13.50 is a ten percent move, not a one percent move.

Commercial Mortgage Servicers Extending Maturities: Big News for General Growth

It sounds like a sensible solution for a serious and growing problem. I imagine a whole flock of lawyers will bill big-time hours in bankruptcies fighting it but an impartial judge would see the logic of it. The General Growth bankruptcy may be the first major test since this is the basic plan of William Ackman, who controls about 25 percent of the stock and now is on the General Growth board.

Disclosure - I am long GGWPQ stock.

10 Banks 'Guaranteed' to Survive and Prosper

BAC is 13 dollars a share not 20. Pretty good article otherwise.

Surprise: Bank of America Cuts Dividend By 50%

If these purchases work out over the next three or four years Lewis will be thought of as a brainiac who bought while there was blood in the streets and made a bundle for BAC. If they do not he will probably be appearing before a hostile Congress.