Roger C. Wren

Roger C. Wren
Contributor since: 2008

The oil and gas must be transported somehow. Pipelines are environmentally better than the alternatives.

The New York Times, in both its' news articles and in its' editorial pages, is a propaganda arm of the left wing of the Democratic party. I will never contribute anything to it and will rejoice when it goes bankrupt and closes up.

" Currently, the susceptibility is for every $1 change in the WTI for crude oil, the company loses $10 million in distributable cash flow. For every $0.10 change in MMBtu for natural gas, the company loses $43 million in distributable cash flow."
Question. Are the losses for WTI and natural gas cash flows per quarter or per year?

How much of the dividend is withheld from American investors?

With the stock closing yesterday at 3.10 today you lower your price estimate to 3.74 from 5.74. I reckon that means you think CLF is a buy today, correct? But then you say CLF has lackluster prospects. Going from 3.10 to 3.74 doesn't sound lackluster to me. Tell me your secret please, is CLF a buy or a sell right now?
I fail to see how ORIG goes down as you indicate if DRYS goes tits up. The shares of ORIG owned by DRYS will be transferred to whoever DRYS owes money to. They may dump all of them on the market immediately and temporarily drive the ORIG price down but it should snap right back. Probably to an even higher level since DRYS and George would be gone except for George's five percent ORIG holding. I fail to see the idea of shorting ORIG. I own a (very) few shares of ORIG and I think BK by DRYS would be a positive for ORIG as it would spread DRYS's 48 percent holding out among a large number of holders and one would no longer have to worry about what George's next move might be.
A pair trade that shorts a little of the solid company's stock and buys a lot of the not solid company's stock is a brainstorm?

I haven't seen how many shares ORIG is selling but it is likely that they will be enough to reduce DRYS's holdings in ORIG to less than 50 percent. Not the biggest deal going on here but it is something. The longest journey is started with but a single step. Every percentage reduction of the ORIG holdings of GE or DRYS is a movement in the correct direction.

In response to a question in the conference call SeaDrill management said something to the effect that the West Eclipse's contract would run out in June but negotiations are going well and they expect only minor down time,if any, before it goes back to work. They said something about three or four weeks that caused me to leave a note for myself to expect something in late June or early July. Coming up with a new contract in the current environment will be nice if it happens but at what dayrate?

Price to what cash flow? Cash from operations or free cash flow? The answer may be in the article but I could not find it.

If you really believe the EIA's production number this week you probably also have lost a few bucks responding to Emails from Nigeria.
Wait and see what the production numbers are the next 3 or 4 weeks before making an investment decision based on a likely faulty production number. Bear in mind that this is a number generated by Obama's crew and thus may be being used somehow to advance some administration objective. Accuracy and honesty are not primary targets of the Obama administration, which is "winning" the non-war with the Islamic State.

What if SDRL happens to report 86 cents earnings instead of the consensus estimate of 62 cents?
Could happen.
Oh my goodness gracious. It did happen. What a shock for the shocker man.

In the last few decades almost every country/corporation/in... that has extended credit to Argentina has ended up getting the shaft. Is it really an act of genius for China to step forward as the next potential victim?

I may be remembering wrong but it seems to me that a month or two ago they also had two weeks in a row exactly the same. With total production in the 9 million area it is possible but very unlikely. Like winning the lottery.

You refer to your forecast period several times but never tell us what it is. From context I assume it is more than the normal one year analyst time frame.

You have told us this over and over and over and over and over. If you had a point you made it long ago. Move on.
I do my own taxes so I avoid anything that sends me a K-1 form. When KMI changed to a C-corp I went into KMI in a big (for little me) way. Doing fine so far but the race is just getting out of the starting blocks.

It sounds like a legal but nasty company is about to come up against the true believers of the Obama administration. Too bad they can not both lose but if one is forced to pick a winner it sounds like the author is correct. Place a bet with the forces of the 1/32 Indian lady.

The futures price is normally for delivery at Cushing Oklahoma. Whoever buys at the wellhead has to pay for the cost of getting the oil to an ultimate buyer such as a refinery. Visualise paying tanker truck drivers to haul loads of oil to a railroad or pipeline location and then paying the railroad or pipeline to move it on to a refinery. This means that the April/May futures prices will normally be significantly higher than the current wellhead prices.

The system does not replace one or two stocks at a time. You select a group of stocks, keep them a year, and sell all of them. You then use the same method to select a new group of stocks and repeat.

Good point on the breakeven points Profit. The chart from SeaDrill is about six months old. I assume breakeven at 350,000 to 400,000 dayrates is a lot less than the chart shows. In any case the oil companies assume they will get production for 25 to 30 years from a new well I have read somewhere or other. Low Brent prices lasting for a year or two in the early days of a well should not hold new contracts to zero for very long.
It is a Chinese company. Been there before, been burned, never again. Fraud, corruption, and a government that can and has changed the rules and regulations without warning.
If it sounds too good to be true maybe it is in fact too good to be true.
For the last week or two WTI price reports on Bloomberg have been using March futures while Brent has been using April futures. Over this weekend WTI appears to have moved to using April futures same as Brent. The spread will likely shrink significantly during market hours on Monday.
If the spread stays at 9 dollars it will be a huge arbitrage opportunity for the big boys.

I reckon I must be retarded but I have no idea what an S-curve is.

If they make a deal of some kind it will just kick the can down the road a year or two. The debt will be a hundred or maybe two hundred billion larger in a year or two as the next crisis unfolds.
If you have a old horse that needs put down you can stall but it is not going to get better and sooner or later you will have to take your gun and shoot the poor thing.

Greece seems to be trying to follow the strategy of the old saying that states "If you owe a bank 50,000 dollars and can not pay you are in trouble but if you owe a bank 50 million dollars and can not pay the bank is in trouble."
Greece is a small country which produces next to nothing and has no strategic, military, or resource importance.
Greece should get ready to say bye-bye to the Euro, the Euro zone, and its current standard of living which is financed by borrowed money.
Hello default.

Buggy whips are still being used so somewhere there is somebody making and selling them, presumably at a profit.

"The wealthy will be asked to carry a heavier tax burden, and we hope they will gladly do so for the sake of the nation." If you believe this you are living in an alternative universe.
If the government re-hires all the discharged public workers it will need to pay them with Euros. The government has not got the money to do this. It will have to borrow large sums of Euros. Loaning money to Greece for such a project is a sure way to lose money. Who does the author expect to see stepping up to the plate and forking over several billion Euros to put unneeded government workers back on the payroll? Germany maybe? Warren Buffet maybe? Putin? Saudi Arabia?

The most important item I see here is the cash flow available for distribution number of 60 cents a share. Maintain that for the four quarters of 2015 and the projected dividend of 2.00 will be well covered.

Peter Pike:
I see you on several forums bashing SDRL and Fredricksen while they are down. Will you vanish if they start moving back up?

Smart yes, but it is killing me. If I agree to sign surrender papers will Saudi cut production? Pretty please?
However, if I were them I very well may do the same thing and since I am not in on margin I can wait a year or two for oil and my stocks to come back.

Buddy : KMI has very little to do with the oil industry. It is mostly pipelines and facilities for the movement of natural gas. Also the mergers just closed and the stock price will be affected by investors getting out of positions they were forced into by the mergers for a short period.

Today's report is obviously not good news but it is not a total disaster.
About two billion dollars a year that would have gone for dividends will accumulate. It will be available to strengthen the company. Pay down a little debt, buy cheap shares back, snap up a few bargains in a hurting industry, who knows what else. No matter where the stock price ends up today all is not lost and SeaDrill is a bargain at the current price. I will hold and expect better days ahead. Oil will not be down forever.