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Roger C. Wren  

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  • A Pair Trade In DryShips, Inc. (Long) And Ocean Rig, UDW, Inc. (Short) [View article]
    I fail to see how ORIG goes down as you indicate if DRYS goes tits up. The shares of ORIG owned by DRYS will be transferred to whoever DRYS owes money to. They may dump all of them on the market immediately and temporarily drive the ORIG price down but it should snap right back. Probably to an even higher level since DRYS and George would be gone except for George's five percent ORIG holding. I fail to see the idea of shorting ORIG. I own a (very) few shares of ORIG and I think BK by DRYS would be a positive for ORIG as it would spread DRYS's 48 percent holding out among a large number of holders and one would no longer have to worry about what George's next move might be.

    A pair trade that shorts a little of the solid company's stock and buys a lot of the not solid company's stock is a brainstorm?
    Jun 9, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After Hours Gainers / Losers [View news story]

    I haven't seen how many shares ORIG is selling but it is likely that they will be enough to reduce DRYS's holdings in ORIG to less than 50 percent. Not the biggest deal going on here but it is something. The longest journey is started with but a single step. Every percentage reduction of the ORIG holdings of GE or DRYS is a movement in the correct direction.
    Jun 3, 2015. 05:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Faces Challenges, But Results Show That The Company Is Weathering The Difficult Industry Conditions Well [View article]

    In response to a question in the conference call SeaDrill management said something to the effect that the West Eclipse's contract would run out in June but negotiations are going well and they expect only minor down time,if any, before it goes back to work. They said something about three or four weeks that caused me to leave a note for myself to expect something in late June or early July. Coming up with a new contract in the current environment will be nice if it happens but at what dayrate?
    Jun 1, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Price-To-Cash Flow: The Most Important Fundamental Stock Indicator [View article]

    Price to what cash flow? Cash from operations or free cash flow? The answer may be in the article but I could not find it.
    May 31, 2015. 07:46 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Crude Oil Production Rise A Surprise [View article]

    If you really believe the EIA's production number this week you probably also have lost a few bucks responding to Emails from Nigeria.

    Wait and see what the production numbers are the next 3 or 4 weeks before making an investment decision based on a likely faulty production number. Bear in mind that this is a number generated by Obama's crew and thus may be being used somehow to advance some administration objective. Accuracy and honesty are not primary targets of the Obama administration, which is "winning" the non-war with the Islamic State.
    May 30, 2015. 04:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: 2 Major Concerns Heading Into Earnings [View article]

    What if SDRL happens to report 86 cents earnings instead of the consensus estimate of 62 cents?

    Could happen.

    Oh my goodness gracious. It did happen. What a shock for the shocker man.
    May 28, 2015. 05:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina's Growing Dependency On Beijing [View article]

    In the last few decades almost every country/corporation/in... that has extended credit to Argentina has ended up getting the shaft. Is it really an act of genius for China to step forward as the next potential victim?
    May 21, 2015. 05:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]

    I may be remembering wrong but it seems to me that a month or two ago they also had two weeks in a row exactly the same. With total production in the 9 million area it is possible but very unlikely. Like winning the lottery.
    May 20, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scenarios That Can Move Delta's Stock Price [View article]

    You refer to your forecast period several times but never tell us what it is. From context I assume it is more than the normal one year analyst time frame.
    May 10, 2015. 06:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude inventories build much lesser than expected [View news story]

    You have told us this over and over and over and over and over. If you had a point you made it long ago. Move on.
    Apr 29, 2015. 10:56 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners Or Kinder Morgan Inc.? [View article]
    I do my own taxes so I avoid anything that sends me a K-1 form. When KMI changed to a C-corp I went into KMI in a big (for little me) way. Doing fine so far but the race is just getting out of the starting blocks.
    Apr 20, 2015. 04:44 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CFPB Just Made World Acceptance A Zero [View article]

    It sounds like a legal but nasty company is about to come up against the true believers of the Obama administration. Too bad they can not both lose but if one is forced to pick a winner it sounds like the author is correct. Place a bet with the forces of the 1/32 Indian lady.
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Why A 'Storage Crisis' Might Not Be So Bad After All [View article]

    The futures price is normally for delivery at Cushing Oklahoma. Whoever buys at the wellhead has to pay for the cost of getting the oil to an ultimate buyer such as a refinery. Visualise paying tanker truck drivers to haul loads of oil to a railroad or pipeline location and then paying the railroad or pipeline to move it on to a refinery. This means that the April/May futures prices will normally be significantly higher than the current wellhead prices.
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'll Take Some Greenblatt With A Touch Of Domash [View article]

    The system does not replace one or two stocks at a time. You select a group of stocks, keep them a year, and sell all of them. You then use the same method to select a new group of stocks and repeat.
    Mar 22, 2015. 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oversupply Of Offshore Rigs: A Big-Picture Look [View article]

    Good point on the breakeven points Profit. The chart from SeaDrill is about six months old. I assume breakeven at 350,000 to 400,000 dayrates is a lot less than the chart shows. In any case the oil companies assume they will get production for 25 to 30 years from a new well I have read somewhere or other. Low Brent prices lasting for a year or two in the early days of a well should not hold new contracts to zero for very long.
    Mar 5, 2015. 07:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
252 Comments
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